Dax 30; Ftse 100; SP 500 - Market View

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Shares of insurers, reinsurers and tour operators have again come under some pressure as analysts update their calculations of Hurricane Harvey’s damage and are trying to anticipate what hurricane Irma will cause in the Caribbean and in the southern US.

 

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At the last meeting of the ECB, Mario Draghi appears to have fulfilled the twofold objective he had set himself: to prepare the market for a change in the asset purchase program without unduly alarmising investors. The ECB could decide on changes to the asset purchase program at the next meeting in October, avoiding requests for more information from journalists attending the press conference. To avoid a more pronounced market reaction, the ECB President reassured investors that "a very accommodative monetary policy is needed" to generate the desired inflation.

 

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Asian markets closed higher, essentially for two reasons. The first is the generalized recovery of the Dollar against the region's currencies. The second is that North Korea has not carried out any war test during the weekend. In the last 3 months, the Chinese stock exchange has been the best Asian performer, accumulating gains of 6%. Other Asian markets have been conditioned by tensions on the Korean Peninsula and the fluctuations of the respective currencies against the Dollar (which influence the competitiveness of their exports). The Chinese economy has behaved rather better than many economists anticipated a few months ago. Economic activity has given repeated signs of strength, grounded in the dynamism of infrastructure, the real estate market and exports. Chinese markets have also benefited from continued capital flows that continue to flow into emerging markets, of which China is the most representative.

 

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In the last three months, the indices of the Old Continent registered a remarkable underperformance compared with their American counterparts. After the highs reached at the beginning of June, European stocks suffered a correction between 5% and 10% and in the last two months have consolidated over a wide range, without showing a definite trend. On Monday, some indices broke this high, increasing the likelihood of a short-term rally. This probability would be strengthened if the Euro corrected. Despite continuing to trade around 1.20 against the Dollar, the Euro has lost some momentum against other currencies, which deserves some vigilance from investors. The threats to this potential positive scenario for European equities are the situation in Korea and some hypothetical correction on Wall Street.

 

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The Automobile Fair is still taking place in Frankfurt, the biggest event of this industry in Europe. This type of event is always a good opportunity to gauge not only the opinion of stakeholders but also their feelings about the current situation. After a first half of the year in which it has been strongly influenced by sales in the European continent (after six years of recovery), the automotive sector has been one of the best performers in the Old Continent in recent weeks.

 

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As the next week’s FED meeting approaches, investors’ expectations for the US Central Bank’s position on how it will reduce its balance of 4200 000 M.USD in assets as a result of 8 years of an ultra-accommodating monetary policy. This week’s economic data should help investors design a preview of next week’s meeting.

 

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Despite the immediate immediacy of the launch of new products, the market reaction to the Apple event turned out to be negative. Apple shares fell 0.80% in the session and later 0.18% in the afterhours session.

 

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Despite the immediate immediacy of the launch of new products, the market reaction to the Apple event turned out to be negative. Apple shares fell 0.80% in the session and later 0.18% in the afterhours session.

 

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The Friday rally is explained, mainly, by the closing of futures and options. In addition to increasing exponentially the volume of the session, the maturity of this type of derivative contract has, in most cases, a positive impact on the stock market. Similarly, and still statistically speaking, the week following the quadruple witching tends to be negative for stock markets, while increasing volatility and declining stocks.

 

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Tomorrow prudence should mark the session, with investors waiting for FED (tomorrow) and Bank of Japan (Thursday) meetings.