Elliott Wave Analysis by Admiral Markets

[Admiral Markets]

Forex Market Holding its Breath for FOMC Statement

EUR/USD

4 hour



The EUR/USD will be heavily impacted by the FOMC rate decision and statement later today. A EUR/USD break above resistance (red) invalidates the current wave structure, whereas a break below support (green) could see price continue with its downtrend.

1 hour



The EUR/USD is probably in a wave 4 bear flag formation (bottom is geen line) and could head lower at the wave 4 Fibonacci levels. A break above the 50% Fibonacci retracement level and the resistance trend line (red) would invalidate the wave structure. A break below the trend line (green) could confirm the start of wave 5 (blue).

GBP/USD

4 hour



The GBP/USD will be heavily impacted by the FOMC rate decision and statement later today. The GBP/USD price action is attempting to break the support (green) trend line of the contracting triangle chart pattern, which increases the chance of a wave 3 (orange/green) starting (unless price breaks back above resistance).

1 hour



The GBP/USD could be building a wave 3 (green) if price manages to break below the support (green) rend line. One of the alternatives is that price makes an ABC rally back to resistance (red).

USD/JPY

4 hour



The USD/JPY will be heavily impacted by the FOMC rate decision and statement later today. A break above or below the consolidation zone could indicate the intermediate direction of this currency pair.



“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

EUR/USD Breaks Bear Flag and Continues Downtrend

EUR/USD

4 hour



The EUR/USD broke the bear flag chart pattern during the FOMC news event and posted a new lower low which is most likely part of the wave 3 (purple). The bearish trend is either part of a wave 3 or wave C (green). A wave C could see price stop anywhere between the 100% and the 161.8% target whereas a wave 3 needs to see price move towards the 161.8% or preferably further.

1 hour



The EUR/USD could still move a bit lower to the next Fib target or be now ready for another wave 4 (purple) retracement to the Fibonacci levels. A break of the 50% Fib and trend line (red) invalidates the wave 4 (purple).

GBP/USD

4 hour



The GBP/USD broke the support trend line (green) which could indicate a downtrend continuation.

1 hour



The GBP/USD needs to have bearish price action to justify the development of wave 3 (green). A break above the top and origin of wave 2 invalidates the wave structure.

USD/JPY

4 hour



The USD/JPY is still marked as an ABC (blue) zigzag despite the bullish price action because of the bigger resistance zone.



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[Admiral Markets]

US Dollar Price Action Becoming Increasingly Indecisive

EUR/USD

4 hour



The EUR/USD downtrend has until now only reached the 100% Fibonacci target level and has not seen a substantial bearish impulse as yet, which increases the chance of an ABC (green) developing rather than a 123 (green).

1 hour



The EUR/USD is making another bear flag chart pattern (green lines), which is a typical formation for a wave 4. The invalidation level remains the 50% Fib and trend line (red).

GBP/USD

4 hour



The GBP/USD downtrend has been very slow in starting and showing hesitation. The invalidation level of the current wave 1 & 2 (pink) is the origin of wave 1 (grey line). If price does not see a bigger acceleration for waves 3, then the chances of an ABC (purple) unfolding increase.

1 hour



The GBP/USD structure has been changed to show an ending triangle for a wave 5 (green) within wave 1 (pink). A bullish ABC (green) is developing and challenging the currency resistance trend line (orange).

USD/JPY

4 hour



The USD/JPY price action remains trapped between support and resistance and price is now retesting the top of the sideways zone. The wave structure is showing that price can stay between these levels for another wave X and Y (brown).


“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

ABC Wave Counts Replace 123 Structures

EUR/USD

4 hour



The EUR/USD seems to be making a bullish retracement within the downtrend. The month of October has ended without a bearish break of the bottom at 1.0450, which in my analysis means that an ABC (green) now seems a more likely scenario than a 123 (green). Typically ABC zigzags will complete around the 100% Fibonacci target or in between the 100 and 161.8%.

1 hour



The EUR/USD is making a bear flag chart pattern (green lines), which is a typical formation for a wave 4. The invalidation level is the 50% Fib and trend line (red). A break below the bear flag and 261.8% Fib target could see an extension of wave 3 (brown) to the 423.6% Fib target.

GBP/USD

4 hour



The GBP/USD monthly candle of October has ended bullish, which decreases the chances of a bearish outlook and hence the wave has been changed to reflect that an ABC zigzag (purple) at least seems equally likely as a 123.

1 hour



The GBP/USD completed a bullish ABC zigzag (green), which could have completed a wave 2 (pink) unless price breaks above the 100% resistance level (invalidation).

USD/JPY

4 hour



The USD/JPY price action remains trapped between support and resistance and price is now in a smaller chart pattern (see 1 hour). The wave structure is showing that price can stay between these levels for another wave X and Y (brown).



“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

EUR/USD in Wave 4 Retracement at Resistance Confluence

EUR/USD

4 hour



The EUR/USD oscillator has made a retracement back to the middle of the indicator (purple box) after previously showing strong bearish momentum (orange box). This means that there is a high probability of a downtrend continuation from the Fibonacci retracement levels like the 38.2% and the 50% to complete wave 5 (purple) of 3 (brown). After that a shallow pullback could indicate 1 more wave 4 and 5 (brown) to finish wave C (green).

1 hour



As long as the EUR/USD stays below the resistance trend lines (red/brown) then a wave 4 (purple) is the most likely scenario. A break below the support trend lines (green) increases the chance of price falling towards the Fibonacci targets of wave 5 (purple).

GBP/USD

4 hour



The GBP/USD's current wave count with pink 1-2 is invalidated if price breaks above the top and 100% level.

1 hour



The GBP/USD show one more push up yesterday, which seems to be a wave 5 (blue). The bearish wave count is reliant on the development that the 100% Fib is not broken and that the support trend lines are eventually broken.

USD/JPY

4 hour



The USD/JPY is in a contracting wedge chart pattern with a support (green) and a resistance (red/brown) level nearby that offer measuring points for a breakout.



“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

EUR/USD Bearish Breakout after Turnaround at Wave 4 Resistance

EUR/USD

4 hour



The EUR/USD made a bearish turn yesterday at the previous wave 4 (blue) and 38.2% Fibonacci level. Price continued its downtrend and broke below the support trend line (dotted green). A bearish trend continuation could complete wave 5 (purple).

1 hour



The bearish breakout below support (dotted green) has been labeled as a wave 3 (green). The potential wave 4 (green) correction must not cross above the bottom of wave 1 (green) or else it invalidates the current wave count.

GBP/USD

4 hour



The GBP/USD's recent price action has been primarily sideways with momentum taking place in both directions. The support (green) and resistance (orange) trend lines mark the boundaries of the current consolidation.

1 hour



At the moment the wave formation is labeled as a deep wave 2 (green) pull back. The GBP/USD price action invalidates the current wave 1-2 structure (pink) if it manages to break above the resistance line (brown) and 100% Fib levels.

USD/JPY

4 hour



The USD/JPY is again near the resistance zone within the wider range (brown/blue lines). The current wave count labels this price action as a hook back for more downside (see the 1 hour chart for the invalidation level).


“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

GU Contracting Triangle, EU Downtrend and UJ Wedge

EUR/USD

4 hour



The EUR/USD is showing a bearish trend continuation and price is heading towards the Fibonacci targets of wave 5 (purple).

1 hour



Price respected the 38.2% Fibonacci level which confirms a wave 4 (green) turn and price headed lower as part of wave 5 (green). The EUR/USD is now building a mini bear flag as part of wave 4 (blue). A break above the bottom (purple) of wave 1 (blue) invalidates the current wave structure.

GBP/USD

4 hour



The GBP/USD's support (green) and resistance (orange) trend lines mark the boundaries of the current consolidation A break above the 100% Fibonacci level marks the invalidation level of the wave 1-2 (pink) structure.

1 hour



The GBP/USD is in a triangle chart formation with support (blue) and resistance (orange) trend lines nearby. The invalidation level of the current wave 2 (green) is a break above the 100% Fibonacci level.

USD/JPY

4 hour



The USD/JPY wave count was changed to reflect the break above the first resistance level (purple). Price has however not yet broken the bigger resistance zone of the entire consolidation. A bullish breakout would mean that price could head higher towards the Fibonacci targets of wave Y (brown).



“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

Multiple Divergence Prepares EUR/USD for Pullback & Continuation

EUR/USD

4 hour



The EUR/USD has (early) signs of divergence as price made a lower low but the oscillator, which has already turned green, failed to post a lower low (blue line). This could indicate that price has completed a wave 5 (purple) and that price can make a retracement for wave 4 (brown) back to the long-term moving average (dotted purple), which is also equal to 38.2%-50% Fibonacci levels and the previous wave 4's (purple/blue).

1 hour



The EUR/USD has double divergence on the hourly chart (blue line), which also increases the chance that waves 5 (blue/purple) and wave 3 (brown) have indeed been completed at yesterday's lower low.

GBP/USD

4 hour



The Bank of England (BOE) news event sent the GBP lower yesterday and made the GBP/USD break the support trend lines (dotted green/blue). The impulsive price action fits the current and anticipated waves 3.

1 hour



The GBP/USD completed a wave 3 and 4 (blue) and is in a wave 5 (blue) falling towards the Fibonacci targets.

USD/JPY

4 hour



The USD/JPY is attempting to break above the resistance levels of the sideways zone (brown). For the moment the wave structure is marked as a wave A (blue), which means that a wave B correction & wave C continuation can follow later (after A is completed).



“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

USD/JPY Breaks Resistance of Consolidation Zone

EUR/USD

4 hour



The EUR/USD is in a neat downtrend channel marked by the orange and blue trend lines. Divergence is present (purple) but one more wave 4 (brown) bullish correction and wave 5 bearish impulse is expected.

1 hour



The EUR/USD broke below the support trend line (dotted green) and continued with its downtrend. The Fibonacci levels mark the resistance of wave 4 and the support trend line (green) the boundary of the potential wave 5 breakout.

GBP/USD

4 hour



The Cable bearish impulse of wave's 3 (pink/blue) continues to push price lower and price has potential space to the 200% and 261.8% Fibonacci targets of pink.

1 hour



The GBP/USD is making a retracement at the moment which is most likely a corrective wave 4 (green). Typically waves 4 either are shallow flags or triangles with retracements that do not exceed the 50% Fibonacci level of wave 3 and mostly turn at the 23.6% and 38.2% Fib.

USD/JPY

4 hour



The USD/JPY broke above the long-term resistance of the sideways zone (dotted brown) in an impulsive manner which seems to be best explained at the moment as a wave A (blue).



“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

Wave 4 Corrective Phases in Forex Market

EUR/USD

4 hour




The EUR/USD bounced at the bottom of the downtrend channel and is making a bullish correction, which is marked as wave 4 (brown). The resistance zone (red), trend line (orange) and Fibonacci levels are potential turning spots for the conclusion of wave 4.

1 hour


The EUR/USD is building a bear flag (green lines) chart pattern within the wave 4 but price could retrace deeper towards the Fibonacci retracement levels.

GBP/USD

4 hour


The Cable is in a bearish breakout below the triangle support (dotted green), which is part of a wave 3 impulse.

1 hour


The GBP/USD is making a retracement at the moment which is most likely a corrective wave 4 (green). Price should normally not break above the 50% Fibonacci level.

USD/JPY

4 hour


The USD/JPY broke above the long-term resistance of the sideways zone (dotted brown) in an impulsive manner which seems to be best explained at the moment as a wave A (blue).



“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”