Elliott Wave Analysis by Admiral Markets

[Admiral Markets]

USD/JPY Bullish Breakout above Down Trend Channel

USD/JPY

4 hour

The USD/JPY seems to have carefully broke above the resistance (dotted red) of the downtrend channel (red/green), which could be a first signal that the wave 4 (purple) correction has been completed.

1 hour

The USD/JPY has completed a 5 wave structure (brown), which most likely completed wave 1 (blue). Price will most likely use the Fibonacci levels of wave 2 vs 1 as support levels. A break below the 100% Fib invalidates the wave count.

EUR/USD

4 hour

The EUR/USD bounced at the 50% Fibonacci level of the wave X vs W and it is now approaching a trend line (red). A break above this resistance could see price move up towards the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of wave 2 vs 1. Any price action above the 100% level invalidates the wave 2 (brown).

1 hour

The EUR/USD is expanding the correction via a WXY (green). Within wave Y (green) price could potentially build a zigzag.

GBP/USD

4 hour

The GBP/USD could be building a larger ABC zigzag (blue) and hence the Fibonacci levels of wave B vs A could act as support levels. The wave C (blue) Fibonacci levels could be targets.

1 hour

The GBP/USD broke above multiple resistance levels (dotted red). A break below support (blue) would make a wave 3 (orange) unlikely and a larger correction within wave B is probable. Price could retest the Fib levels of wave B vs A.

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[Admiral Markets]

GBP/USD Continues within Wave 3 of Larger Zigzag

GBP/USD

4 hour

The GBP/USD seems to be building an ABC zigzag (blue) and price is moving towards the Fibonacci levels of wave C vs A. Within wave C (blue) price seems to be building a 5 wave (orange) structure.

1 hour

The GBP/USD broke above the 1.25 resistance and is in a wave 3 (orange) momentum, which could last towards the Fibonacci targets of wave 3 vs 1. A wave 4 retracement would be invalidated if price broke below the top of wave 1 (orange).

EUR/USD

4 hour

The EUR/USD has reached the 78.6% Fibonacci level of wave 2 vs 1 (brown), which could act as a bearish resistance zone. A break above the 100% level would invalidate the current wave structure.

1 hour

The EUR/USD seems to be building a channel (orange/blue), which resembles a rising wedge chart pattern. A break below the support trend line (blue) could indicate a bearish breakout.

USD/JPY

4 hour

The USD/JPY broke below the bottom and hence the wave count has been changed to reflect a deeper WXY (blue) correction within wave 4 (purple). The Fibonacci levels of wave 4 (purple) could act as potential bullish support levels.

1 hour

The USD/JPY is in a bearish trend channel (red/green). A breakout above or below the channel is needed before price could be expected to move impulsively.

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[Admiral Markets]

USD/JPY Arrives at Bearish 50% Fibonacci of Wave 4

USD/JPY

4 hour

The USD/JPY is retracing back to the Fibonacci levels of wave 4 (purple) which could act as potential bullish support levels.

1 hour

The USD/JPY is in a bearish triangle (orange/blue) within a downtrend channel (red/green). A breakout above or below the triangle is needed before price could be expected to move impulsively. At the moment a wave 4 (orange) seems likely unless price breaks above the 50% Fib.

EUR/USD

4 hour

The EUR/USD has reached the 78.6% Fibonacci level of wave 2 vs 1 (brown), which could act as a bearish resistance zone. Another major bearish resistance level is at 1.08 which is the 88.6% Fibonacci. A break above the 100% level would invalidate the current wave structure.

1 hour

The EUR/USD could be making a bearish turn at the 78.6% Fibonacci level but it would need to break below the support trend lines (green/blue) to increase the chance of that scenario. Alternatively, price could still be part of a wave 4 (grey) correction if it stays above the Fib levels of wave 4 vs 3.

GBP/USD

4 hour

The GBP/USD seems to be building an ABC zigzag (blue) and price is moving towards the Fibonacci levels of wave C vs A. Within wave C (blue) price seems to be building a 5 wave (orange) structure.

1 hour

The GBP/USD bounced at the Fibonacci levels of the wave 4 retracement and is now heading for a wave 5 (orange) which has resistance nearby (brown trend line).

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[Admiral Markets]

EUR/USD Builds Rising Wedge Pattern at 1.0750 Resistance

EUR/USD

4 hour

The EUR/USD has reached the 78.6% Fibonacci level of wave 2 vs 1 (brown) and is also building a rising wedge chart pattern (orange/blue), which is a potential reversal signal. Another major bearish resistance level is at 1.08-1.0810 which is the 88.6% Fibonacci. A break above the 100% level would invalidate the current wave structure.

1 hour

The EUR/USD might build a bearish reversal at the 78.6% Fibonacci level but it would need to break below the support trend line (blue). Alternatively, price could still be part of a wave 4 (grey) correction if it stays above the Fib levels of wave 4 vs 3.

GBP/USD

4 hour

The GBP/USD could be building an ABC zigzag (blue) and price is approaching the 100% Fibonacci target of wave C vs A. Within wave C (blue) price seems to be building a 5 wave (orange) structure.

1 hour

The GBP/USD could be building an internal 5 wave (grey) within wave 5 (orange). A retracement within wave 4 (grey) could see a bounce at the Fibonacci levels of wave 4 vs 3, the support trend line (blue) and the previous broken top (dark blue).

USD/JPY

4 hour

The USD/JPY is building a bearish triangle (orange/blue) within a downtrend channel (red/green). The Fibonacci retracement levels of wave 4 (purple) could act as potential bullish support levels.

1 hour

A breakout above or below the triangle is needed before price could be expected to move impulsively. A bullish break would still face the resistance (red) of the channel. A bearish break could see price fall towards the 38.2% Fibonacci of wave 4 (purple).

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[Admiral Markets]

US Dollar Breaks Trend Lines and Recovers Impulsively

EUR/USD

4 hour

The EUR/USD has made a bearish turn at the 78.6% Fibonacci level of wave 2 vs 1 (brown) and has broken below the support of the rising wedge chart pattern (dotted blue). This bearish break could be a wave 1 (blue) of wave 3 (brown). The alternative scenario could be an ABC rather than a 1 (blue) which would indicate a larger correction.

1 hour

The EUR/USD could be in a wave 4 correction (orange) within wave 1 (blue). After wave 1 (blue) there could be a deep pullback for wave 2 without breaking the top (this would otherwise invalidate the count).

GBP/USD

4 hour

The GBP/USD seems to have completed an ABC zigzag (blue) at the main 100% Fibonacci target of wave C vs A. The bearish reaction could be either impulsive or corrective. At the moment a complex correction (wave W blue) is the favourite.

1 hour

The GBP/USD could be building an ABC zigzag (orange) or a impulsive 5 wave. This depends on whether price breaks the support level (blue) and falls below the 100% Fibonacci target of wave C vs A.

USD/JPY

4 hour

The USD/JPY broke above the resistance of the bearish triangle (dotted orange) and the downtrend channel (dotted red). This could signal the completion of wave 4 (purple) and the start of the wave 5 (purple).

1 hour

The breakout could be part of a wave 3 (brown) within a larger wave 1 (blue).

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[Admiral Markets]

USD/JPY Approaches Critical Decision Zone at 114

USD/JPY

4 hour

The USD/JPY broke above the resistance of the bearish trend line (dotted red). This could signal the completion of wave 4 (purple) and the start of the wave 5 (purple).

1 hour

The wave 4 (brown) retracement is invalidated if price pushes below the 61.8% Fibonacci level of wave 4 vs 3 and the previous top of wave 1 (brown). A bearish breakout (red arrow) could occur below the support level (blue) whereas a bullish breakout (green arrow) could occur above the resistance trend line (red).

EUR/USD

4 hour

The EUR/USD showed a bearish turn at the 78.6% Fibonacci level of wave 2 vs 1 (brown). A break above the resistance trend line (red) could indicate a larger correction towards the 88.6% Fibonacci level.

1 hour

The EUR/USD bearish reaction could be a wave 1 (blue) but a break above the 100% Fibonacci level of wave 2 vs 1 invalidates this wave count.

GBP/USD

4 hour

The GBP/USD seems to have completed an ABC zigzag (blue) and at the moment seems to be expanding a complex correction (wave W blue).

1 hour

The GBP/USD built an ABC zigzag (orange) within a potential larger correction (WXY blue).

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[Admiral Markets]

GBP/USD Bearish ABC Zigzag Challenges 1.25 Support

GBP/USD

4 hour

The GBP/USD is in a bearish channel (blue/brown lines) which could be part of a larger complex correction as indicated by the support (green) and resistance (red) trend lines.

1 hour

The GBP/USD is building an ABC bearish zigzag (orange) within a downtrend channel (brown/blue lines). A break above the 100% Fibonacci level of wave B vs A invalidates the ABC bearish zigzag and indicates a potential bullish breakout scenario above the bearish channel. A break below the support trend line (green) could see price retest the bottom of the channel (blue).

EUR/USD

4 hour

The EUR/USD completed a 2nd wave (blue) as expected near resistance (red) and made one more lower low. The bearish price action however only reached the 100% Fibonacci target of wave 3 vs 1. This could either be explained by the fact that A) price is building an bearish ABC zigzag (not a 123) or price is expanding the wave 3 (blue) via an internal 5 wave (see 1 hour chart).

1 hour

For the moment the assumption in this 1 hour chart is that the EUR/USD is building a wave 2 (orange) within wave 3 (blue). The invalidation level of this wave count is a break above the 100% Fibonacci level of wave 2 vs 1.

USD/JPY

4 hour

The USD/JPY broke back below the support trend line (dotted blue) and previous top (dotted green) which invalidated a potential bullish 5 wave. The alternative is an ABC (orange) zigzag within a larger wave 4 (purple) correction.

1 hour

The USD/JPY is building an ABC (orange) bearish zigzag within wave Y (brown).

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[Admiral Markets]

US Dollar Struggles to Find Strength during January

EUR/USD

4 hour

The EUR/USD turned around – yet again – for one more bullish push higher. The price action, however, remains very choppy and corrective. Price has also reached the next Fibonacci resistance: the 88.6% level. A break above the 88.6% makes a wave 2 (brown) unlikely and a break above 100% invalidates this wave structure. A break below support could spark waves 3.

1 hour

The EUR/USD bearish price action was an ABC correction (green) and price could have completed a bullish ABC correction too. The wave C (green) could continue higher if price breaks above resistance (red) and the 138.2% Fibonacci.

GBP/USD

4 hour

The GBP/USD broke above the bearish channel (dotted brown line). The price action in the channel is relatively choppy compared to the bullish price action and hence the wave count has been changed to reflect a potential bullish (green) wave count within wave 4 (purple).

1 hour

The GBP/USD could expand the wave B (green) correction via an expanded WXY (blue) correction. A break above the 138.2% Fibonacci level invalidates the wave X vs W.

USD/JPY

4 hour

The USD/JPY made another attempt to reach the 38.2% Fibonacci level of wave 4 (purple). Either the 38.2% or 50% are likely bounce spots for such a wave 4 (purple).

1 hour

The USD/JPY is building an ABC (orange) bearish zigzag within wave Y (brown).

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[Admiral Markets]

GBP/USD Builds Rising Wedge Chart Pattern at 100% Fibonacci

GBP/USD

4 hour

The GBP/USD is retesting the resistance trend line (red). A bearish bounce could confirm a wave X (blue) and see price test the Fibonacci levels of wave B (green). A break above the 138.2% Fibonacci level of wave X vs W invalidates wave X (blue) and makes an uptrend likely.

1 hour

The GBP/USD seems to be building a rising wedge chart pattern (red/green). A breakout (arrows) could occur to both sides of the support and resistance trend lines.

EUR/USD

4 hour

The EUR/USD showed a bearish bounce as expected at the 88.6% level resistance level. The bearish bounce however has been choppy and mild. A break above the 88.6% makes a wave 2 (brown) unlikely and a break above 100% invalidates this wave structure. A break below support (blue) could spark wave 3 (green).

1 hour

The EUR/USD is showing hesitation when developing bearish price action and is finding support along the way. Price bounced at the 38.2% Fibonacci support level of wave X vs W and is now retesting the resistance trend line (red).

USD/JPY

4 hour

The USD/JPY is retracing back to the Fibonacci levels of wave 4 (purple). Either the 38.2% or 50% are likely bounce spots for such a wave 4 (purple).

1 hour

The USD/JPY is building a bearish ABC (orange) zigzag within wave Y (blue).

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[Admiral Markets]

EUR/USD, GBP/USD Break Wedge and Decline with 5 Waves

EUR/USD

4 hour

The EUR/USD showed a 2nd bearish bounce at the 88.6% level resistance level, which keeps the wave 2 (brown) structure intact. A break below the support (blue) trend line is needed before a bearish breakout is possible.

1 hour

The EUR/USD is completing a bearish 5 wave pattern (blue) which could be either a wave A or 1 (purple).

GBP/USD

4 hour

The GBP/USD showed a bearish bounce at the resistance trend line (red) and Fibonacci levels of wave X vs W. Price is now retesting the support trend line (blue) which is a bounce or break zone. A bearish breakout could price test the Fibonacci levels of wave B vs A (blue).

1 hour

The GBP/USD broke below the rising wedge chart pattern (dotted greens) and fall impulsively in 5 bearish waves (grey). This price action could either be a wave 1 or wave A (purple) and a bullish bounce could be part of wave 2 or B (purple). The Fibonacci levels of wave B (purple) could stop price from moving higher but is invalidated if price breaks above the 100% Fibonacci level.

USD/JPY

4 hour

The USD/JPY is retracing back to the Fibonacci levels of wave 4 (purple). Either the 38.2% or 50% are likely bounce spots for such a wave 4 (purple).

1 hour

The USD/JPY broke above the resistance trend line (dotted orange) and is building a bullish ABC (orange) zigzag within wave X (brown). A break above the next resistance trend line (red) could price test the Fibonacci levels of wave C vs A.

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