Elliott Wave Analysis by Admiral Markets

[Admiral Markets]

US Dollar Bounces at Fibonacci Support and Approaches Resistance

EUR/USD

4 hour

The EUR/USD bullish retracement indeed turned at the broken support (dotted green) and broke below support (dotted blue). A wave 3 (brown) seems likely if price is able to break below the new bottom (green) and the 100% Fibonacci level of wave 3 vs 1.

1 hour

The EUR/USD bearish breakout below support (green) could see price continue with the downtrend.

GBP/USD

4 hour

The GBP/USD downtrend is testing the support level at the 161.8% Fibonacci area. A bearish break below support (blue line) could see price extend its fall towards the Fibonacci targets.

1 hour

The GBP/USD indeed completed a wave 4 (orange) correction at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. The trend line (red) and broken support (dotted greens) should act as a resistance zone. A break below support (blue) could see price extend its fall towards the Fibonacci targets.

USD/JPY

4 hour

The USD/JPY has built a bearish retracement within the uptrend. A break above the resistance level (red) could see price continue towards the Fibonacci targets.

1 hour

The USD/JPY completed a shallow wave 4 pullback (orange) at the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of wave 4 (orange). A break above the resistance trend line (red) could see price continue towards the Fibonacci targets.

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[Admiral Markets]

USD/JPY Bullish Break has Fibonacci Targets at 120 and 121

EUR/USD

4 hour

The EUR/USD downtrend remains intact as price stays below the resistance (red) and broken bottoms (dotted green). However, price has not been able to move away from the support zone and a wave 3 (brown) only becomes more likely when the 100% Fibonacci level of wave 3 vs 1 is broken.

1 hour

The EUR/USD bearish breakout below support (green) could see price continue with the downtrend. For the moment a larger and expanded wave 4 (purple) correction seems to be taking place via an ABC (blue).

GBP/USD

4 hour

The GBP/USD downtrend could be building a retracement within wave 4 (blue). A break today below the bottom of the current wave 3 (blue) could indicate that price is still continuing within wave 3 (blue).

1 hour

The GBP/USD Fibonacci levels of wave 4 (blue) should act as resistance spots for a potential bearish turn.

USD/JPY

4 hour

The USD/JPY is in an uptrend but price is building a bearish retracement called a contracting triangle chart pattern. A break above the resistance level (red) could see price continue towards the Fibonacci targets.

1 hour

The USD/JPY seems to be building a wave 1 and 2 (green) within the uptrend. A break above the resistance trend line (red) could see price continue towards the Fibonacci targets.

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[Admiral Markets]

EUR/USD, GBP/USD Build Bear Flag Chart Patterns within Downtrend

EUR/USD

4 hour

The EUR/USD is in a downtrend as long as price stays below the resistance (orange) trend line and the broken bottoms (dotted greens). At the moment, price is building a correction and it will need to break below support (green/blue) trend lines and the 100% Fibonacci level of wave 3 vs 1 before a bearish continuation becomes more likely.

1 hour

The EUR/USD is building a bear flag chart pattern (red/blue) with an expanded wave 4 (purple). A bearish breakout below the support (blue) could see price continue with the downtrend.

GBP/USD

4 hour

The GBP/USD downtrend seems to indeed be building a retracement within wave 4 (blue). A break today below the bottom of the current wave 3 (blue) could indicate a downtrend continuation to retest the previous low (green horizontal line).

1 hour

The GBP/USD Fibonacci levels of wave 4 (blue) should act as resistance spots for a potential bearish turn. A break above the 50% Fib does make a wave 4 (blue) less likely. A break below the support of the bear flag pattern (orange/blue lines) could indicate a bearish fall towards the Fibo targets of waves 5.

USD/JPY

4 hour

The USD/JPY uptrend is retracing within a contracting triangle chart pattern. A break above the resistance level (red) could see price continue towards the Fibonacci targets.

1 hour

The USD/JPY seems to be building a wave 1 and 2 (green) within the uptrend. A break above the resistance trend line (red) could see price continue towards the Fibonacci targets.

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[Admiral Markets]

GBP/USD Bearish Breakout within Bearish Trend Channel

EUR/USD

4 hour

The EUR/USD remains in a downtrend if price manages to stay below the resistance trend line (orange) and the broken bottoms (dotted greens). Price is building a correction and it will need to break below support (green/blue) trend lines and the 100% Fibonacci level of wave 3 vs 1 before a bearish continuation becomes more likely.

1 hour

The EUR/USD is building a bear flag chart pattern (red/blue) as part of the expanded wave 4 (purple). A break above the Fib levels of wave 4 vs 3 would invalidate the current wave structure. A bearish breakout below the support (blue) could see price continue with the downtrend.

GBP/USD

4 hour

The GBP/USD downtrend continues with a new lower low after completing a wave 4 (blue) retracement. Price could fall towards the Fibonacci targets in the upcoming trading weeks and retest the previous bottom (green line).

1 hour

The GBP/USD remains in a bearish channel (red/green lines) after breaking the support trend line (blue dotted) for a bearish breakout yesterday. Price could bounce back to the top of the channel once the wave 3 (orange) is completed, which could be part of a wave 4 retracement.

USD/JPY

4 hour

The USD/JPY uptrend is retracing within a contracting triangle chart pattern. A break above the resistance level (red) could see price continue towards the Fibonacci targets.

1 hour

The USD/JPY seems to be building a wave 1 and 2 (green) within the uptrend. A break above the resistance trend line (red) could see price continue towards the Fibonacci targets. A break below support (green) and the Fibonacci levels would invalidate the wave structure.

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[Admiral Markets]

USD/JPY Uptrend Builds Contracting Triangle Chart Pattern

USD/JPY

4 hour

The USD/JPY uptrend is building a contracting triangle chart pattern (red/blue). A break above the resistance level (red) could see price extend the trend towards Fib targets.

1 hour

The USD/JPY is building a wave 1 and 2 (green) unless price breaks below the support (blue) and the Fibonacci levels. A break above the resistance trend line (red) could see price continue towards the Fibonacci targets.

EUR/USD

4 hour

The EUR/USD downtrend is building a major consolidation zone at the broken support levels from 2015 (dotted greens). A bearish continuation becomes more likely once price manages to break below the support (green/blue) levels.

1 hour

The EUR/USD is building a sideways correction within the wave 4 (purple). A break above the Fib levels of wave 4 vs 3 would invalidate the current wave structure. A bearish breakout below the support (blue) could see price continue with the downtrend.

GBP/USD

4 hour

The GBP/USD downtrend is neatly indicated by a bearish channel (green/red) with Fibonacci targets and the previous bottom (green line) below it.

1 hour

The GBP/USD is in a wave 4 (orange) unless price breaks above the 61.8% Fib. A breakout below the support (blue) could indicate a continuation of the wave 5 (orange).

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[Admiral Markets]

EUR/USD, GBP/USD Remain below Resistance Fibonacci Levels

EUR/USD

4 hour

The EUR/USD is moving sideways within a consolidation zone as it is not able to break above the broken support levels (dotted greens) to invalidate the wave 3 (brown) nor below the support levels (blue/green) to confirm it.

1 hour

The EUR/USD could still be in a lengthy wave 4 (purple) correction unless price manages to break above the Fibonacci levels of wave 4 vs 3.

GBP/USD

4 hour

The GBP/USD has broken above the resistance of the bearish channel (dotted red), which could indicate a potential larger retracement or perhaps reversal. A break below the previous bottom (blue line) could see a price extension towards the Fibonacci targets.

1 hour

The GBP/USD is in a wave 4 (orange) unless price breaks above the 61.8% Fib. The bullish break of the resistance in the downtrend channel could be a first warning of a larger retracement but the Fibonacci levels of wave 4 vs 3 could still act as a bearish turning spot.

USD/JPY

4 hour

The USD/JPY uptrend broke above the resistance level (dotted red) and could extend towards the Fib targets but the break has been choppy and slow so far (see 1 hour chart). An ABCDE triangle formation seems more likely.

1 hour

The USD/JPY bullish breakout above the resistance (dotted red) was choppy and corrective and has been labelled as an ABC (pink). The wave count has now been changed to an ABCDE (green) triangle pattern. Wave E (green) may not break below the 0% level otherwise it would be invalid.

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[Admiral Markets]

GBP/USD Continues with 1-2 Wave in Bearish Channel

GBP/USD

4 hour

The GBP/USD turned around at resistance and continued with the downtrend. Price remains in a downtrend as long as price stays below the trend lines (red).

1 hour

The GBP/USD turned at the Fibonacci levels of wave 4 (orange). Price could now be building an extension within wave 5 (orange) unless price breaks above the 100% level of wave 2 vs 1 (grey).

EUR/USD

4 hour

The EUR/USD was unable to break above the resistance trend lines (red) and remains in a downtrend. A break above the Fibonacci levels of wave 4 vs 3 would invalidate the current wave count.

1 hour

The EUR/USD broke a support trend line (dotted blue) yesterday but price was unable to break below the previous bottom (blue). This price action could be part of a larger correction via a WXY (blue) of wave 4 (purple) if price stops at the resistance zone.

USD/JPY

4 hour

The USD/JPY has broken the support trend line (dotted green) but price still remains in an uptrend as long as price stays above the long-term moving average.

1 hour

The USD/JPY is most likely in a consolidation phase within an ABCDE (green) triangle pattern unless price breaks below the bottom (green).

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[Admiral Markets]

US Dollar Starts New 2017 Trading Year at Support

EUR/USD

4 hour

The EUR/USD bullish retracement has turned at the resistance trend lines (red) and 61.8% Fibonacci level of wave 2
(brown). A break below the support (blue/green) is needed before a wave 3 (green) continuation of the bearish trend can be considered.

1 hour

The EUR/USD could still continue higher within wave C (purple) of wave 2 (brown) if price manages to
break above the resistance (orange) trend line. A break below the top of wave 1 (blue) and the support trend line means that the wave C (purple) has been completed at the recent top.

GBP/USD

4 hour

The GBP/USD is most likely building a larger retracement within a wave 4 (blue) correction. A wave 4 (blue) typically retraces back to the 23.6-38.2-50% Fibonacci levels. A break below the support trend line (blue) could spark a continuation of the downtrend.

1 hour

The GBP/USD could be extending the wave 4 (blue) correction with a WXY (orange) unless price break below the Fibs and support trend line (blue). A break above the resistance (orange) could see price retest higher Fibonacci levels of wave 4 vs 3 (blue).

USD/JPY

4 hour

The USD/JPY is most likely still in a wave 4 (orange) correction unless price breaks below the top of wave 1 (orange) which is indicated by a trend line (green). A break above resistance (red) could see price move towards the Fib targets.

1 hour

The USD/JPY could be building a wave 1-2 (green) unless price breaks below the 100% Fib level of wave 2 vs 1.

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[Admiral Markets]

USD/JPY Critical Breakout above Wave-4 Consolidation Zone

USD/JPY

4 hour

The USD/JPY indeed confirmed the wave 4 (orange) corrective structure when price broke above the resistance levels (dotted lines) as expected. Price is now moving towards the Fib targets.

1 hour

The USD/JPY indeed confirmed the wave 1-2 (green) wave structure and is now moving towards the Fibonacci targets of wave 3 (green).

EUR/USD

4 hour

The EUR/USD bounced at resistance (red) and is now ready to challenge the support (blue/green) levels. A break is needed before a wave 3 (green) continuation of the bearish trend becomes likely.

1 hour

The EUR/USD broke below the key support level (dotted green) which indicated that wave C (purple) and wave 2 (brown) were completed at the high. A break below support (blue) indicates that price could continue towards the Fibonacci levels of wave 3 (purple).

GBP/USD

4 hour

The GBP/USD is most likely building a larger retracement within a wave 4 (blue) correction, which could mean a bullish bounce at the Fibonacci levels of wave X vs W. A break below those Fib levels (blue) however could spark a continuation of the downtrend. A wave 4 (blue) typically retraces back to the 23.6-38.2-50% Fibonacci levels.

1 hour

The GBP/USD could be extending the wave 4 (blue) correction with a WXY (orange) unless price break below the Fibs and support trend line (blue). A break above the resistance (red) could see price retest higher Fibonacci levels of wave 4 vs 3 (blue).

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[Admiral Markets]

EUR/USD, GBP/USD Downtrends Retest Critical 1.22 and 1.0350 Levels

EUR/USD

4 hour

The EUR/USD continued to move lower and has now arrived at a bounce or break spot at the support (blue/green) levels. A break is needed before a wave 3 (green) continuation of the bearish trend becomes likely.

1 hour

The EUR/USD is most likely in a wave 4 (purple) correction where an ABC (blue) zigzag could occur.

GBP/USD

4 hour

The GBP/USD is most likely building a larger retracement within a wave 4 (blue) correction, which could mean a bullish bounce at the Fibonacci levels of wave X vs W. A break below those Fib levels (blue) however could spark a continuation of the downtrend. A wave 4 (blue) typically retraces back to the 23.6-38.2-50% Fibonacci levels.

1 hour

The GBP/USD could be extending the wave 4 (blue) correction with a WXY (orange) unless price break below the Fibs. A break above the resistance (red) could see price retest higher Fibonacci levels of wave 4 vs 3 (blue).

USD/JPY

4 hour

The USD/JPY broke above the resistance trend line (dotted orange), which seems to be part of a wave 5 (orange) of a larger bullish momentum. A break above the high (red) could see price continue with the uptrend towards the Fibonacci targets.

1 hour

The USD/JPY completed the wave 5 (pink) of wave 3 (green) before making a large bearish retracement towards the 61.8% Fibonacci level of wave 4 (green).

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