Elliott Wave Analysis by Admiral Markets

[Admiral Markets]

EUR/USD bearish momentum approaches 1.05 daily bottom

EUR/USD

4 hour

The EUR/USD downtrend is approaching the bottoms (green) from the daily chart, which could act as potential bouncing spots if price is indeed in a wave 5 (brown) of wave 1 (green).

1 hour

https://s16.postimg.org/6c3qz01n9/21_11_2016eu1.png

The EUR/USD is building a bear flag chart pattern (red/green). A bearish break could see price test the 1.05 support zone. A bullish break above resistance (orange) could indicate the completion of wave 1 (green).

GBP/USD

4 hour

The GBP/USD seems to be developing a bearish wave 3 (blue). A downtrend continuation is possible if price pushes below support (green).

1 hour

The GBP/USD is building a bearish trend, which is best indicated by the resistance trend line (red). A break above the 61.8% Fibonacci level would invalidate a wave 4 (purple).

USD/JPY

4 hour

The USD/JPY broke above the resistance trend line (dotted red) and psychological 110 level, which is confirming strong bullish momentum often seen in wave 3’s (blue / purple). The larger targets are at 112 and 115.

1 hour

The USD/JPY is moving to higher Fibonacci levels within wave 5 (green).

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[Admiral Markets]

GBP/USD bullish zigzag tests deep Fib retracement levels

EUR/USD

4 hour

The EUR/USD downtrend seems to be running out of momentum as price approaches bottoms (green) from the daily chart. A break above the resistance trend line (orange) could start a wave 2 (green) correction.

1 hour

The EUR/USD continues to build a bear flag chart pattern (red/green). A bearish break could see price test the 1.05 support zone. A bullish break above resistance (orange) could indicate the completion of wave 1 (green) and continue with the wave 2 (green) correction.

GBP/USD

4 hour

The GBP/USD did not manage to break below the support trend line (green) and in fact showed a bullish bounce. Price then broke above the resistance trend line (dotted red) which makes a wave 2 (blue) retracement likely.

1 hour

The GBP/USD is most likely building an ABC (orange) zigzag correction within wave 2 (blue). Price could complete the wave 2 at the Fibonacci retracement levels although a break above the 100% level invalidates the current wave count.

USD/JPY

4 hour

The USD/JPY bullish momentum is taking price to the Fibonacci targets. The uptrend seems to be slowing down slightly, which could indicate that a wave 3 (blue) is near completion and that a wave 4 (blue) retracement could soon start.

1 hour

The USD/JPY could be ready to build an ABC (brown) correction within wave 4 (blue) unless price breaks above resistance (orange).

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[Admiral Markets]

EUR/USD, USD/JPY build multiple chart pattern formations

EUR/USD

4 hour

The EUR/USD downtrend is taking a long pause near major support levels (green) from the daily-weekly charts. A break above the resistance trend line (orange) could start a wave 2 (green) correction whereas a break below the minor support (blue) see a small fall to test the higher time frame support (greens).

1 hour

The EUR/USD continues to build a bear flag chart pattern (red/green). A bearish break could see price test the 1.05 support zone. A bullish break above resistance (orange) could indicate the completion of wave 1 (green) and continuation of wave 2 (green) correction.

GBP/USD

4 hour

The GBP/USD needs to break below the support trend line (green) before the wave 2 (blue) is completed. At the moment an extended wave 2 (blue) could occur via a WXY (orange) correction.

1 hour

The GBP/USD completed an ABC (grey) zigzag at the 61.8% Fibonacci level of wave 2 (blue). Price could complete the wave 2 at Fibonacci retracement levels although a break above the 100% level invalidates the current wave count. If price is not building an expanded correction (WXY orange), then price will break through the Fibonacci support and trend lines (blue/green).

USD/JPY

4 hour

The USD/JPY bullish momentum slows down which could indicate that a wave 3 (blue) is near completion. It also means that a wave 4 (blue) retracement could start when price is able to break below the support trend line (green).

1 hour

The USD/JPY could be ready to build an ABC (brown) zigzag correction within wave 4 (blue) unless price breaks above resistance (orange).

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[Admiral Markets]

US Dollar breaks resistance and continues towards Fibonacci targets

EUR/USD

4 hour

The EUR/USD broke the support trend line (dotted blue) and is now retesting the major support levels (green) from the daily-weekly charts. A break below these support (blue) levels could indicate a downtrend continuation, whereas a break above the resistance trend line (orange) could start a wave 2 (green) correction.

1 hour

The EUR/USD bearish break and momentum is approaching support levels (green), which could potentially complete waves 5.

GBP/USD

4 hour

The GBP/USD needs to break below the support trend line (green) before the wave 2 (blue) is completed. At the moment an extended wave 2 (blue) could occur via a WXY (orange) correction.

1 hour

The GBP/USD completed an ABC (grey) zigzag within a wave X (orange). Price could complete the wave 2 (blue) at one of the Fibonacci retracement levels although a break above the 100% level invalidates the current wave count. If price is not building an expanded correction (WXY orange), then price will break through the support trend line (green).

USD/JPY

4 hour

The USD/JPY bullish momentum broke above the resistance trend line (dotted orange) and expanded the wave 5 (orange).

1 hour

The USD/JPY completed a wave 4 (green) and is heading towards the Fibonacci targets.

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[Admiral Markets]

EUR/USD reaches break or bounce spot at 1.05 support

EUR/USD

4 hour

The EUR/USD is testing major support (green) from the daily-weekly charts but seems unable to break below these levels for the moment. If a break does occur below support (blue) then this indicate a downtrend continuation. A bullish bounce at the support zone and a break above the resistance trend line (orange) could start a wave 2 (green) correction.

1 hour

The EUR/USD seems to be starting an ABC (purple) correction but this wave structure would become invalidated if price breaks below the green lines.

GBP/USD

4 hour

The GBP/USD needs to break below the support trend line (green) before the wave 2 (blue) is completed. At the moment an extended wave 2 (blue) could occur via a WXY (orange) correction but a break above the 100% Fibonacci level invalidates the wave 2 (blue).

1 hour

The GBP/USD is moving sideways and building an extended correction as expected. The most likely wave count suggests that price is building an ABC (grey) zigzag.

USD/JPY

4 hour

The USD/JPY bullish momentum broke above the resistance trend line (dotted orange) and expanded wave 5 (orange).

1 hour

The USD/JPY has expanded wave 5 (green) with 5 more internal waves (pink).

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[Admiral Markets]

USD bullish momentum loses control and corrects with ABC zigzag

EUR/USD

4 hour

The EUR/USD finally showed a bullish bounce at the support zone and a break above the resistance trend line (orange), which is probably starting a wave 2 (green) correction. Price has reached the 23.6% Fibonacci level but typically retraces deeper in a bearish wave 2 without breaking above the 100% Fibonacci level (invalidation).

1 hour

The EUR/USD seems to be indeed in an ABC (purple) zigzag, which is most likely part of a larger WXY (brown) correction. At the moment a wave 4 (blue) and 5 could still take place within the zigzag.

GBP/USD

4 hour

The GBP/USD needs to break below the support trend line (green) before the wave 2 (blue) is completed. At the moment an extended wave 2 (blue) could occur via a WXY (orange) correction but a break above the 100% Fibonacci level invalidates the wave 2 (blue).

1 hour

The GBP/USD has reached the 61.8% Fibonacci resistance level of wave 2 (blue). In the case that this indicates the completion of the WXY (orange) correction of wave 2 (blue), then a bearish wave 1 (orange) should start and price will eventually break support (green). In case the resistance trend line (red) breaks, price could retest deeper Fib levels of wave 2 (blue).

USD/JPY

4 hour

The USD/JPY bullish momentum ran out of steam and broke the support trend lines (dotted green). Price most likely completed wave 3 (blue) and is now retracing within wave 4 (blue). The23.6% and 38.2% Fibonacci levels are expected to act as support.

1 hour

The USD/JPY has retraced back to the 23.6% Fibonacci support but price could extend the wave 4 (blue) correction via WXY (brown).

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[Admiral Markets]

USD/JPY builds bull flag pattern within strong rally

EUR/USD

4 hour

The EUR/USD made a bullish bounce at the support zone (green lines) but the rebound stopped at the 23.6% Fibonacci level. If price is indeed in a wave 2 (green) correction then I would expect price to expand the correction via a WXY (brown). A break below the support zone indicates the invalidation of a larger correction.

1 hour

The EUR/USD seems to have completed two ABC (purple) zigzags within a larger WXY (brown) correction.

GBP/USD

4 hour

The GBP/USD turned at the 61.8% Fibonacci level of wave 2 (blue). The Cable needs to break below the support trend line (green) to confirm a downtrend continuation of a wave 1 (orange) within wave 3 (blue).

1 hour

The GBP/USD bearish waves (grey) indeed broke below support (dotted green). A break below the next support (blue) could confirm the wave 5 (grey) of wave 1 (orange).

USD/JPY

4 hour

The USD/JPY bullish momentum is indeed building a correction as expected and is probably retracing within a wave 4 (blue). The23.6% and 38.2% Fibonacci levels are expected to act as support.

1 hour

The USD/JPY is building a WXY (brown) correction within wave 4 (blue).

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[Admiral Markets]

EUR/USD, GBP/USD test support and resistance trend lines

EUR/USD

4 hour

The EUR/USD is building a contracting triangle pattern (orange/green) at the major support levels from the daily chart (green). A bullish break above resistance (orange) could see price correct to higher Fibonacci levels. A break below the support zone (green lines) indicates a continuation of the downtrend.

1 hour

The EUR/USD seems to have completed another ABC zigzag (blue) within a larger WXY (brown/purple) correction. A bullish bounce at the Fibonacci levels could indicate that price will extend the correction in a wave Y (brown).

GBP/USD

4 hour

The GBP/USD has both support (green) and resistance (red) trend lines nearby. The Cable needs to break below the support trend line (green) to confirm a downtrend continuation within waves 5. A breakout above resistance (red) might soon run into new resistance at the Fibonacci levels of wave 2 vs 1.

1 hour

The GBP/USD showed strong bullish momentum which could be part of a larger ABC (grey) zigzag. A break above resistance (red) could see price push to the 78.6% Fib of wave 2 vs 1. A break below the 100% of wave B vs A indicates a bearish breakout zone.

USD/JPY

4 hour

The USD/JPY is building a correction and is retracing within a wave 4 (blue) or is starting already the wave 5 (blue) continuation. The23.6% and 38.2% Fibonacci levels are expected to act as support if price does retrace deeper.

1 hour

The USD/JPY bullish break above resistance (dotted orange) showed strong momentum and has been marked as a wave 1 (brown). Price could now be in a wave 3 (brown) unless price breaks below the 100% level of wave 2 vs 1.

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[Admiral Markets]

Wave structure on DAX, EUR and USD prior to Italian referendum 2016

DAX30

Weekly

The German DAX index break above the resistance trend line (dotted red) after it bounced at the 50% Fibonacci level of a potential wave 4 (purple). The bullish break could be part of wave (purple) and multiple waves 1-2 (orange/green) could explain the series of higher highs and higher lows recently. However, a strong break above the resistance top (solid red) is needed to confirm the structure. A push below the support trend line (green) and 50% of wave 4 (purple) invalidates the waves 1-2.

4 hour

Wave 2 (orange) seems to have been completed on a lower time frame. The bullish momentum after price bounced at the 50% Fibonacci level of wave 2 (orange) has been marked as a wave 1 (brown). The wave 2 (brown) retracement has been choppy and corrective as price moves sideways via a WXY correction (blue/green). The Fibonacci levels of wave 2 vs 1 could act as support but a break below the 100% level invalidates wave 2 (brown). A break above the resistance (orange/red) could trigger a potential wave 3 (orange).

EUR/USD

4 hour

The EUR/USD is bouncing in between support (green) and resistance (orange) trend lines. Major support levels from the daily chart (green) are also key. A bullish break above resistance (orange) could see price correct to higher Fibonacci levels. A break below the support zone (green lines) indicates a continuation of the downtrend.

1 hour

The EUR/USD seems to have completed an ABC zigzag (blue) within a larger WXY (brown/purple) correction. A bullish bounce at the Fibonacci levels of wave X vs W could indicate that price will extend the correction in a wave Y (brown).

USD/JPY

4 hour

The USD/JPY posted a new higher high close to 115 as the bullish momentum extends further and further.

1 hour

The USD/JPY could be retracing within a wave 4 (brown) although in that case price cannot break below the 50% Fibonacci level otherwise the structure is invalidated.

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[Admiral Markets]

Invalidation and Confirmation Levels in Financial Markets Ahead of Italian Referendum

DAX30

4 hour

The German DAX index seems to be building a retracement for a wave 2 (brown). The Fibonacci levels of wave 2 vs 1 could act as support but a break below the 100% level invalidates wave 2 (brown). A break above the resistance (orange/red) could trigger a potential wave 3 (orange).

1 hour

The wave 2 (brown) could test a deep Fibonacci like, such as the 61.8% or 78.6% levels, before completing the bullish turn. If that is the case, an ABC (purple) could develop within waves Y (green/blue).

EUR/USD

4 hour

The EUR/USD broke the resistance trend line (dotted orange) as it expands its bullish correction after the strong downtrend bounced at daily support levels (green). The bullish breakout might struggle at the Fibonacci levels of wave 2 vs 1.

1 hour

The EUR/USD seems to be in an ABC zigzag (purple) within a larger WXY (brown/purple) correction. A bearish retracement could occur at the Fibonacci resistance. If price will extend the correction or restart the downtrend will partly depend on how price reacts to resistance: with lots of bearish momentum or with choppy correction.

USD/JPY

4 hour

The USD/JPY uptrend is building a retracement at the 155 resistance. A break above the resistance trend line (red) could see price move to higher Fibonacci levels.

1 hour

The USD/JPY seems to have completed a retracement within a wave 4 (brown) although price could expand the correction with a potential WXY.

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