Elliott Wave Analysis by Admiral Markets

[Admiral Markets]

USD/JPY sturdy bullish reversal at 50% Fib of wave 4

EUR/USD

4 hour

The EUR/USD managed to retrace back to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of wave E vs D (green) of a larger triangle on the daily/weekly charts. The EUR/USD has completed a wave 5 (purple) of potential wave a (brown) if price manages to break below the support trend line (green) and 50% Fib of wave 4 vs 3. A bounce at support could still wave 5 go higher and perhaps reach the resistance (red).

1 hour

The EUR/USD has either completed a wave 5 (purple) at the recent high or is expanding the wave 4 correction (purple) via an ABC (blue).

GBP/USD

4 hour

The GBP/USD is building a WXY (blue) correction within wave 4 (green). Once wave 4 (green) is completed, a downtrend continuation is expected to push below support for wave 5 (blue/purple).

1 hour

The GBP/USD broke the trend line (dotted red) and made a higher high as part of the wave 5 (purple) within wave C (purple). A bearish correction seems to have started at the resistance Fibs.

USD/JPY

4 hour

The USD/JPY indeed made as expected a bullish bounce at the Fibonacci levels of wave 4 vs 3 (blue). A break above resistance (red) could confirm the breakout for wave 5 (blue).

1 hour

The USD/JPY indeed started the wave 3 (brown) and is at resistance trend line. A breakout could see price continue towards the 261.8% Fib target before making a bull flag as part of wave 4 (brown).

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[Admiral Markets]

US Dollar awaits results from 2016 US Presidential Elections

EUR/USD

4 hour

The EUR/USD price movement will depend on the election news and results as Americans vote for their next President of the United States. With USD weakness, the EUR/USD could be building a potential ABC (brown) towards the 50% or 61.8% of wave e (green). With USD strength, the EUR/USD could break the support trend line (green) and test deeper Fibs of wave b (brown) or alternatively start a downtrend.

1 hour

https://s21.postimg.org/dqodwdk7r/08_11_2016eu1.png

The EUR/USD could use the Fibonacci levels of wave b (brown) as potential bouncing spots, although it will depend on the levels of momentum and volatility during the elections.

GBP/USD

4 hour

The GBP/USD is building a WXY (blue) correction within wave 4 (green). Once wave 4 (green) is completed, a downtrend continuation is expected to push below support for wave 5 (blue/purple). USD weakness could expand the wave 4, whereas USD strength could start wave 5.

1 hour

The GBP/USD could be vulnerable to bounces at Fibonacci levels during the elections.

USD/JPY

4 hour

The USD/JPY seems to be in a wave 5 (blue) of wave 3 (purple) but the price movements during the US elections could change this perspective.

1 hour

The USD/JPY seems to be building a bull flag pattern within wave 4 (brown).

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[Admiral Markets]

Impact of US elections on the US Dollar

EUR/USD

4 hour

The US elections took place on 8 November 2016 where the 2 main candidates were Clinton, from the Democratic Party, and Trump, from Republican Party. The financial markets were ‘pricing in’ a Clinton win but as the election night unfolded, it became clear that a Trump win become increasingly possible. Initially, the EUR/USD hit the 50% Fibonacci level but quickly reverted upwards as a Trump win started to become more probable. The bullish price reaction is does align with the expected ABC zigzag mentioned yesterday. Price action can remain volatile as the last states still need to report the final results.

1 hour

The EUR/USD has reached the 100% Fibonacci level but the price action remains volatile.

GBP/USD

4 hour

The GBP/USD keeps building a WXY (blue) correction within wave 4 (green). Once wave 4 (green) is completed, a downtrend continuation is expected to push below support for wave 5 (blue/purple). For now, a bullish reaction is also visible on the Cable.

1 hour

The GBP/USD could be building an ABC zigzag, although all wave counts are vulnerable due to the political event.

USD/JPY

4 hour

The USD/JPY wave count needed to be changed as the price action was very bearish. The new wave count is showing a correction.

1 hour

The USD/JPY seems to be building an ABC zigzag, although all wave counts are vulnerable due to the political event.

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[Admiral Markets]

Dramatic reversal on US Dollar after Election Day

EUR/USD

4 hour

The EUR/USD increased strongly at the start of the US Election Day but made an equally dramatic turnaround. The bearishness has been so impulsive that the fall has been labelled as a wave 1 (green). The wave e (green), however, is quite short in its current form and therefore an alternative but possible scenario is that the wave 1 (green) is still part of a larger correction. The wave 1 (green) would certainly be invalidated if price manages to break above the top (red) and 61.8% of wave E vs D.

1 hour

The EUR/USD could build an ABC zigzag within wave 2 (green).

GBP/USD

4 hour

The GBP/USD keeps building a WXY (blue) correction within wave 4 (green). Once wave 4 (green) is completed, a downtrend continuation is expected to push below support for wave 5 (blue/purple).

1 hour

The GBP/USD is moving sideways between support (greens) and resistances (red). Within the corrective environment price could be building a zigzag (grey) but if price fails and breaks support (green) then price could be starting a new downtrend.

USD/JPY

4 hour

The USD/JPY showed an equally dramatic turn as the EUR/USD. The strong bearish sentiment was eventually replaced by a strong bullish sentiment. For the moment the bullish reaction has been labelled a wave (purple) as well.

1 hour

The USD/JPY seems to be building a series of 5 waves (blue) within wave 1 (purple). An ABC zigzag is expected within wave 2 (purple).

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[Admiral Markets]

EUR/USD completes 5 bearish waves and prepares for zigzag

EUR/USD

4 hour

The EUR/USD bearishness has been very impulsive and has been labelled as a wave 1 (green). The wave e (green), however, is quite short in its current form and therefore an alternative but possible scenario is that the wave 1 (green) is still part of a larger correction. The wave 1 (green) would certainly be invalidated if price manages to break above the top (red) and 61.8% of wave E vs D.

1 hour

The EUR/USD wave 1 (green) seems to be completed as several 4 hour candles become bullish. That translates into a small but visible rally on the 1 hour chart which could be the start of a wave a (brown). After the wave a (brown) is completed, then a wave b (brown) retracement and a wave c (brown) continuation is expected. A break below the bottom could see wave 5 extend further.

GBP/USD

4 hour

https://s21.postimg.org/szoxh6bfb/11_11_2016gu4.png

The GBP/USD is building a strong bullish retracement. The Fibonacci levels could be targets and resistance spots as price develops a WXY (blue) correction within wave 4 (green). Once wave 4 (green) is completed, a downtrend continuation is expected to push below support for wave 5 (blue/purple).

1 hour

The GBP/USD finally broke above resistance (dotted red) with momentum (wave 3 purple) and seems to be building a wave 4 (purple) retracement for 1 more push higher within wave C (grey).

USD/JPY

4 hour

The USD/JPY showed a strong bullish reaction earlier this week and has been labelled a wave 1 (purple).

1 hour

The USD/JPY is building a series of 5 waves (blue) within wave 1 (purple). The wave 5 (blue) is being extended with a 5 wave (brown).

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[Admiral Markets]

EUR/USD bearish momentum approaches 1.0750 support

EUR/USD

4 hour

The EUR/USD bearishness continues to push lower but price is approaching a psychological round level of 1.0750, which could act as a potential support level. The bearish wave indicates that wave 4 (blue) has been completed and a new larger downtrend (wave 5) has probably started with a wave 1 (green).

1 hour

The EUR/USD wave 1 (green) still push to lower levels after completing a sideways ABC (purple) correction, which formed a wave 4 (purple). Price could fall towards the Fibonacci targets of wave 5 (brown).

GBP/USD

4 hour

The GBP/USD is building a strong bullish retracement. The Fibonacci levels could be targets and resistance spots as price develops a WXY (blue) correction within wave 4 (green). Once wave 4 (green) is completed, a downtrend continuation is expected to push below support for wave 5 (blue/purple).

1 hour

The GBP/USD could be building 5 bearish waves (purple) if it manages to stay below resistance (red) and break support (light green). A break above the 50% Fibonacci level of wave 4 vs 3 could indicate that the Cable is continuing with a bullish correction.

USD/JPY

4 hour

The USD/JPY is displaying strong bullish momentum, which has been labelled as a wave 1 (purple). Round levels like 107.50 and 108 could act as resistance spots.

1 hour

The USD/JPY completed a wave 4 (brown) at the 50% Fibonacci retracement level and is heading towards the Fibonacci levels of wave 5 (brown).

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[Admiral Markets]

EUR/USD shows divergence and prepares for break or bounce

EUR/USD

4 hour

The EUR/USD bearish momentum is approaching major support trend lines (green) from the daily chart bottoms. The wave formation could be a wave 1 (green) of a larger wave 5 downtrend (blue).

1 hour

The EUR/USD wave 1 (green) seems to be complete or near completion when considering the divergence between the bottoms (purple line). An ABC zigzag could occur within wave 2 (green). The wave 2 (green) is invalidated if price breaks above the 100% Fibonacci level. A break below the wave 5 (brown) bottom could see price extend towards the Fib targets of wave 5 vs 1+3.

GBP/USD

4 hour

The GBP/USD could have finally completed the wave 4 (green) retracement now that a bearish turn is visible on the 1 hour chart. A downtrend continuation is possible if price pushes below support (green) for a wave 5 (green/blue/purple).

1 hour

The GBP/USD completed 5 bearish waves (orange) as expected yesterday. A bullish zigzag could take place within wave 2 (blue), which would be invalidated if price breaks above the 100% Fibonacci level. A break below the support trend line (green) could see price extend wave 1 (blue) to a lower spot.

USD/JPY

4 hour

The USD/JPY is displaying strong bullish momentum, which has been labelled as a wave 1 (purple).

1 hour

The USD/JPY is building a bullish extension within the wave 1 (purple). The wave 4 (light blue) is invalid if price breaks below the Fibonacci levels of wave 4 vs 3.

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[Admiral Markets]

US Dollar builds bullish wave-1 and slowly starts wave-2

EUR/USD

4 hour

The EUR/USD has been marked as completing a wave 1 (green) of a larger wave 5 downtrend (blue). Price is now retesting the bottom of that wave 1: a bounce could start the wave 2 (green) correction whereas a break could see wave 1 extend towards the major support trend lines (green) from the daily chart bottoms.

1 hour

The EUR/USD could start an ABC zigzag (brown) correction within wave 2 (green) if price manages to break above resistance (red). The wave 2 (green) is invalidated if price breaks above the 100% Fibonacci level. A break below the wave 5 (brown) bottom could see price extend towards the Fib targets of wave 5 vs 1+3.

GBP/USD

4 hour

The GBP/USD seems to be developing a bearish wave 1 and 2 (blue), which could indicate that a wave 4 (green) retracement has been completed. A downtrend continuation is possible if price pushes below support (green) for a wave 5 (green/blue/purple) whereas the wave 2 (blue) is invalidated once price breaks above the 100% Fib level.

1 hour

The GBP/USD seems to be in a bullish zigzag (orange) within wave 2 (blue), which would be invalidated if price breaks above the 100% Fibonacci level. A break below the 100% Fib of wave B vs A (green) could see price extend wave 1 (blue) to a lower spot.

USD/JPY

4 hour

The USD/JPY is displaying strong bullish momentum, which has been labelled as a wave 1 (purple).

1 hour

The USD/JPY is building a bullish extension within the wave 1 (purple). The wave 4 (light blue) saw indeed a light retracement as expected and price has extended wave 5 (blue) with an internal wave (pink). A break of support could indicate that the uptrend is making a retracement or correction within the uptrend.

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[Admiral Markets]

Focus on USD versus trend lines and Fibonacci levels

EUR/USD

4 hour

The EUR/USD is in a downtrend after completing wave e (green) of wave 4 (blue). Price is still above the support levels (green) from the daily chart bottoms, which could act as potential bouncing spots. A break above resistance (red) trend line could start the wave 2 (green) correction whereas a break below the most recent bottom could see price extend wave 1 (green).

1 hour

The EUR/USD could start an ABC zigzag (brown) correction within wave 2 (green) if price manages to break above resistance (red). The wave 2 (green) is invalidated if price breaks above the 100% Fibonacci level. A break below the wave b (brown) bottom could see price extend towards the Fib targets of wave 5 vs 1+3.

GBP/USD

4 hour

The GBP/USD seems to be developing a bearish wave 1 and 2 (blue). A downtrend continuation is possible if price pushes below support (green) for a wave 5 (green/blue/purple) whereas the wave 2 (blue) is invalidated once price breaks above the 100% Fib level of wave 2 vs 1.

1 hour

The GBP/USD seems to be in a bullish zigzag (orange) within wave 2 (blue), which would be invalidated if price breaks above the 100% Fibonacci level. A break above resistance (red) could see the zigzag retrace deeper. A break below the support trend line (green) could see the Cable fall for a wave 3 (blue).

USD/JPY

4 hour

The USD/JPY is displaying strong bullish momentum, which has been labelled as a wave 1 (purple). If price breaks above the previous top (red) and psychological 110 level, then a different wave count is more probable: an impulsive wave 3 rather than a wave 1 (purple).

1 hour

The USD/JPY uptrend stopped near the 110 resistance. This could be a retracement within wave 2 (purple) if price breaks below support (green).

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[Admiral Markets]

USD/JPY uptrend breaks 110 resistance and aims at 115

EUR/USD

4 hour

The EUR/USD broke the support trend line (dotted green) and continued with its downtrend. Price is testing the bottoms (green) from the daily chart, which could act as potential bouncing spots.

1 hour

https://s14.postimg.org/n2680nq75/18_11_2016eu1.png

The EUR/USD broke below the support trend line (dotted green) yesterday, which lead to price falling towards the Fibonacci targets. Any retracement beyond the 50% Fibonacci level invalidates the wave 4 (purple).

GBP/USD

4 hour

The GBP/USD seems to be developing a bearish wave 1 and 2 (blue). A downtrend continuation is possible if price pushes below support (green) for a wave 3 (blue) whereas the wave 2 (blue) is invalidated if price breaks above the 100% Fib level of wave 2 vs 1.

1 hour

The GBP/USD could be in an extended WXT (orange) correction within wave 2 (blue) if price stays above support (green). A break below support (green) could see price start a potential wave 3 (purple).

USD/JPY

4 hour

The USD/JPY broke above the resistance trend line (dotted red) and psychological 110 level, which is confirming strong bullish momentum often seen in wave 3’s (blue / purple). The larger targets are at 112 and 115.

1 hour

The USD/JPY bullish break above resistance (dotted red) seems to be a wave 3 (green). Once the wave 3 is completed then a wave 4 retracement and wave 5 continuation seem likely within wave 5 (orange).

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