Elliott Wave Analysis by Admiral Markets

[Admiral Markets]

GBP/USD crashes to 1.10

EUR/USD

4 hour

The EUR/USD finally broke below support (dotted green), which indicates that ABCDE (blue) contracting triangle within wave X (purple) is completed. Price could now fall within a wave Y (purple) of wave d (green). The wave d (green) could be invalidated if bearish momentum increases rapidly, which would indicate the start of a larger downtrend.

1 hour

The EUR/USD is building a bearish impulse and a correction will most likely be shallow as part of a wave 4 (orange).

GBP/USD

4 hour

The GBP/USD broke support (dotted green) yesterday and surely did extend the decline towards the Fibonacci targets (see the multiple red arrows mentioned in yesterday's wave analysis). Of course, the massive drop went even a lot further than 1.24 and dropped towards 1.10. The news is mentioning two potential reasons: a big order was placed by accident (less likely variant), or more probable, algorithms started selling which trigged more algorithms during a time with low liquidity. In any case, the sudden GBP drop and retracement most likely completed a wave 3 (green) and started a wave 4 (green). The Cable is expected to respect the Fibonacci levels of wave 4 vs 3.1 hour

The GBP/USD massive decline occurred at a time when the Cable was already in a strong bearish momentum this week. Waves 4 are typical choppy and correction and typically price will start to build a range or consolidation zone (arrows going sideways).

USD/JPY

4 hour

The USD/JPY broke above the resistance of the daily downtrend channel (dotted red) and a wave 3 seems to be developing (purple).

1 hour

The USD/JPY seems to have completed 5 waves (blue) within wave 5 (green), although extensions remain possible if price breaks resistance (orange) without retracing back to the Fibonacci levels of wave 4 (brown). If a retracement does occur, then a wave 4 (brown) usually turns at the 23.6% or 38.2% Fibonacci level (green arrows).

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[Admiral Markets]

GBP/USD builds triangle but USD/JPY keeps momentum

EUR/USD

4 hour

The EUR/USD showed a bearish bounce at resistance (red) within a bigger consolidation zone (red/green lines). Price has now reached the bottom of that zone (green) and a bearish break could indicate a fall within a wave Y (purple) of wave d (green).

1 hour

The EUR/USD built a bearish 5 wave which has been marked a wave A (green). A break above the 100% Fibonacci level invalidates wave B (green).

GBP/USD

4 hour

The GBP/USD decline completed a wave 3 (green) and is expected to respect the Fibonacci levels of wave 4 vs 3 within the wave 4 (green) correction.

1 hour

The GBP/USD has been moving up and down in a choppy and corrective manner as expected in the previous wave analysis. Price could break the trend lines but the Fibonacci levels could react as support or resistance.

USD/JPY

4 hour

The USD/JPY broke above the resistance of the daily downtrend channel (dotted red) but price still needs to break above the horizontal resistance of wave 1 (purple) before a higher high is confirmed. Once the break occurs, a bullish impulse wave seems to be developing (purple) which is most likely wave 3 (purple).

1 hour

The USD/JPY turned at the 38.2% or 50% Fibonacci level (green arrows) of wave 4 (brown) as expected. The break above resistance (dotted red) has seen the USD/JPY move towards the Fibonacci targets (green arrows) but a break of the top (red) is still needed.

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[Admiral Markets]

EUR/USD breaks consolidation zone, GBP/USD bounces at 78.6% Fib

EUR/USD

4 hour

The EUR/USD finally made a bearish break of the larger consolidation zone yesterday, which confirms the wave X (purple) and this bearish wave count of the last few weeks. The breakout has large momentum which could indicate a bearish continuation, although a bounce or retracement at the 50% and psychological round level of 1.10 could occur.

1 hour

The EUR/USD is expanding the 5th wave (orange) and price is now falling towards the Fibonacci targets of wave 5 (grey). A bullish bounce or retracement at 1.10 could indicate that a wave A (green) has been completed and a wave B (green) will start.

GBP/USD

4 hour

The GBP/USD was unable to post a lower low as expected in previous wave counts earlier this week. A triangle formation is the most likely structure at the moment as price builds a correction within wave 4 (green) after the huge decline last week in wave 3 (green).

1 hour

The GBP/USD bounced at the 78.6% Fibonacci level and the bullish momentum after the bounce is indicating that new zigzag (orange) is taking place.

USD/JPY

4 hour

The USD/JPY broke above the resistance of the daily downtrend channel (dotted red) but price still needs to break above the horizontal resistance of wave 1 (purple) before a higher high is confirmed. Once the break occurs, a bullish impulse wave seems to be developing (purple) which is most likely wave 3 (purple).

1 hour

The USD/JPY failed to break above the top (red) yesterday and instead is expanding the correction sideways, which is normal for a wave 4 (brown). A break above resistance (orange/red) could indicate the potential for the USD/JPY to continue with the uptrend (green arrows) as part of wave 3 (blue). A break of support (green) could indicate a larger wave 4 (brown) as long as price stays above the 50% Fibonacci of wave 4 vs 3.

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[Admiral Markets]

EUR/USD reaches 1.10 round level in bearish ABC zigzag

EUR/USD

4 hour

The EUR/USD made one more bearish push to reach the 50% Fibonacci level of wave D vs B and psychological round level of 1.10. A bullish 4 hour candle has appeared since price hit the 1.10 level, which could indicate that a wave A (green) has been completed. In that case an ABC zigzag (green) could occur. If price breaks the 1.10 support then a continuation of wave A (green) seems to be taking place (see 1 hour chart).

1 hour

The EUR/USD break below 1.10 could see price fall towards 1.0960-50 as part of a choppy wave 5 (orange/grey) whereas a break above resistance (orange) could start wave B (green).

GBP/USD

4 hour

The GBP/USD continues to build a triangle formation within a wave 4 (green) after the huge 1,000 pip decline last week as part of wave 3 (green).

1 hour

The GBP/USD completed the wave A (orange) and now seems to be retracing as part of a wave B (orange).

USD/JPY

4 hour

The USD/JPY challenged the previous resistance but still has not managed to break above the horizontal resistance of wave 1 (purple). For the moment it seems likely that price is building a smaller retracement within wave 4 (blue).

1 hour

The USD/JPY broke above resistance (dotted orange) and completed a smaller 5 wave pattern (green) within waves 5 (brown/blue). For the moment a bearish ABC (brown) within wave 4 (blue) seems to be taking place unless price starts to build a triangle at the 23.6% Fibonacci and then breaks above it.

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[Admiral Markets]

US Dollar bounces at S&R and prepares for crucial breakouts

EUR/USD

4 hour

The EUR/USD indeed showed a bullish bounce at the 50% Fibonacci level of wave D vs B and the psychological round level of 1.10 after a bullish 4 hour candle appeared yesterday. Price is probably in an ABC zigzag (green) and the Fibonacci levels of wave B (green) are expected to act as resistance. The EUR/USD has already bounced at the 38.2% Fib level but a break below the previous bottom is needed before a continuation to the 61.8% Fib of wave D vs B could occur.

1 hour

Unless the EUR/USD breaks below the previous bottom at 1.0985, price could make an ABC (orange) zigzag within a larger wave B (green).

GBP/USD

4 hour

The GBP/USD continues to build as expected a triangle formation within a wave 4 (green) consolidation zone after last week’s 1,000 pip decline (wave 3 green). A break below support (green) could indicate the continuation of the downtrend. A break above resistance (red) could indicate a continuation of the wave 4 (green) retracement where the Fib levels are expected to act as resistance.

1 hour

The GBP/USD is in a wave B (orange) correction unless price manages to break below the 78.6% and 100% Fibonacci levels of wave B vs A (zig zag). A bullish bounce at support could complete ABC (orange) within wave Y (blue).

USD/JPY

4 hour

The USD/JPY indeed seems to have completed a smaller retracement within wave 4 (blue). A break above the previous of wave 1 (purple) could signal a larger uptrend (wave 3 purple).

1 hour

The USD/JPY completed an ABC (brown) correction. Price could expand the wave 4 (blue) correction and make it more complex. A breakout above resistance (red) could indicate the continuation of wave 5 (blue).

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[Admiral Markets]

GBP/USD, USD/JPY challenge S&R at 120 and 104.50

EUR/USD

4 hour

The EUR/USD built a lower low but seems to be bouncing at 1.0960 as price breaks away from the consolidation zone in a downtrend. At this moment a bearish ABC zigzag (green) within a larger contacting triangle (wave d green) seems the most likely but if the breakout below wave A (green) is vey impulsive, then a new downtrend could be starting. For the moment, the Fibonacci levels of wave B (green) are expected to act as resistance.

1 hour

A bullish ABC (orange) could take place within wave B (green).

GBP/USD

4 hour

The GBP/USD continues to build as expected a triangle formation within a wave 4 (green) consolidation zone. A break below support (green) could indicate the continuation of the downtrend. A break above resistance (red) could indicate a continuation of the wave 4 (green) retracement where the Fib levels are expected to act as resistance.

1 hour

The GBP/USD is in a wave B (orange) correction unless price manages to break below the 78.6% and 100% Fibonacci levels of wave B vs A (zig zag). A bullish bounce at support could complete ABC (orange) within wave Y (blue).

USD/JPY

4 hour

The USD/JPY needs to break above the previous of wave 1 (purple) before a larger uptrend (wave 3 purple) can start.

1 hour

The USD/JPY seems to be starting the wave 5 (blue) with 5 internal waves (brown). A break above resistance is needed before price can potentially build wave 3 (brown).

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[Admiral Markets]

US Dollar develops in wave C of larger zigzag

EUR/USD

4 hour

The EUR/USD seems to be indeed building a bearish ABC zigzag (green). The Fibonacci levels of wave B (green) are expected to act as resistance and price could turn around at one of them for a continuation within a larger contacting triangle (wave d green). If the bearish breakout is vey impulsive, then a new downtrend could be starting.

1 hour

A bullish ABC (green) seems to be taking place within wave B (green). The Fibonacci levels are targets and potential bouncing spots.

GBP/USD

4 hour

The GBP/USD continues to build a triangle formation within the wave 4 (green) correction as the Cable breaks above resistance (dotted red). The Fib levels are expected to act as resistance.

1 hour

The GBP/USD did not break below the 78.6% and 100% Fibonacci levels of wave B vs A and the wave B (orange) is therefore still valid and supporting price. The bullish breakout is indicating that a wave C (orange) within wave Y (blue) seems to be unfolding.

USD/JPY

4 hour

The USD/JPY needs to break above the previous of wave 1 (purple) before a larger uptrend (wave 3 purple) can start.

1 hour

The USD/JPY has retraced to deep Fibonacci levels within wave 2 (brown). A break above resistance (red/orange) is needed before price can potentially build wave 3 (brown).

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[Admiral Markets]

GBP/USD, USD/JPY prepare bullish breakouts above trend lines

EUR/USD

4 hour

The EUR/USD turned at the 23.6% Fibonacci level of wave B vs A. However the bullish retracement could extend to higher Fibonacci levels if price breaks above the resistance trend line (orange). A break below support (green) could see a continuation of the downtrend.

1 hour

A bullish ABC (green) could to be taking place within wave B (green). The Fibonacci levels are targets and potential bouncing spots unless price breaks below the support trend line (green) that is connecting wave A (blue) and wave B (green).

GBP/USD

4 hour

The GBP/USD continues to build a triangle formation within the wave 4 (green) correction as the Cable breaks above resistance (dotted red). The Fib levels are expected to act as resistance.

1 hour

The GBP/USD is building a wave C (orange) within wave Y (blue). Currently a wave 4 (grey) correction could be developing unless price breaks below the 61.8% Fib level of wave 4 vs 3. A break above resistance (orange) could see price move towards Fibonacci targets.

USD/JPY

4 hour

The USD/JPY needs to break above the previous of wave 1 (purple) before a larger uptrend (wave 3 purple) can start.

1 hour

The USD/JPY is developing a corrective chart pattern. A break above resistance (red/orange) is needed before price can build wave 3 (brown) and continue with the uptrend.

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[Admiral Markets]

EUR/USD break or bounce decision at Fibonacci support zone

EUR/USD

4 hour

The EUR/USD is challenging support levels but needs to break below the 138.2% Fibonacci level of wave X vs W at 1.0940 before a larger correction within wave B (blue) is invalidated and a new downtrend should start. If price does bounce at the support Fibonacci levels of wave X (green), then a rally could occur towards wave Y (green) of wave B (blue).

1 hour

A bullish ABC (green) could occur if price manages to break above the resistance trend line (orange). In such a case, the Fibonacci levels of wave B (blue) are expected to act as resistance.

GBP/USD

4 hour

The GBP/USD continues to build a triangle formation within the wave 4 (green) correction and the Fib levels are expected to act as resistance.

1 hour

The GBP/USD has either completed wave 5 (grey) or still is moving sideways within wave 4 (grey), which depends on the breakout direction above or below support (green) or resistance (red) trend lines.

USD/JPY

4 hour

The USD/JPY needs to break above the previous of wave 1 (purple) before a larger uptrend (wave 3 purple) can start. As long as price stays above the 50% Fibonacci level of wave 4 vs 3, then a wave 4 (blue) seems to be the most likely wave structure.

1 hour

The USD/JPY has expanded the correction of wave 4 (blue). A break above resistance (red/orange) is needed before price can build wave 3 (brown) and continue with the uptrend.

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[Admiral Markets]

EUR/USD replaces bullish spike with bearish breakout in wave-C

EUR/USD

4 hour

The EUR/USD completed one more bullish push as expected within wave B (blue) before building a bearish turn and breaking below support (dotted green). Price is now in a potential wave C (blue) of a larger daily/weekly triangle (wave d green). The triangle could become invalidate if price manages to become very impulsive (then a larger weekly downtrend could be restarting).

1 hour

A bearish ABC (blue) could continue to develop if price manages to break below the Fibonacci levels.

GBP/USD

4 hour

The GBP/USD is challenging the support trend line (green). A break below it could see price develop a bearish breakout to retest the bottom. Whether the wave 4 (green) is complete or still developing depends also how price would break support (if it does).

1 hour

The GBP/USD could show a breakout above or below support (green) or resistance (red) trend lines.

USD/JPY

4 hour

The USD/JPY is building a sideways zone in front of the daily top (brown) and will need to break above the previous wave 1 (purple) before a larger uptrend (wave 3 purple) can start.

1 hour

The USD/JPY seems to have completed wave 4 (blue) as expected and price has in the meantime broken above multiple resistance trend lines (dotted lines). Price is now moving towards the Fibonacci targets of wave 3 (brown).

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