Elliott Wave Analysis by Admiral Markets

[Admiral Markets]

EUR/USD, GBP/USD bullish bounce spots for waves B and 5

EUR/USD

4 hour

The EUR/USD is respecting support (green) and resistance (red) trend lines. The current wave count is expecting price to show a bearish break towards complete an ABC (blue) zigzag within wave D (green). A break above the trend lines (red) would invalidate this scenario.

1 hour

The EUR/USD could bounce at the support trend line (green) to complete a wave B (blue) of a larger ABC zigzag. A break above the trend line (red) and 100% Fibonacci level invalidate the wave structure. A bearish candlestick pattern at the Fibonacci levels could confirm a turn.

GBP/USD

4 hour

The GBP/USD is in a bullish channel after breaking above an important resistance (red) trend line from the daily chart. The Cable is completing a larger ABC correction (pink) within wave 4 (blue).

1 hour

The GBP/USD is still within wave 4 (blue) after completing an ABC correction (purple). A break below the channel could still price respect support at the Fibonacci levels of wave 4 (blue).

USD/JPY

4 hour

The USD/JPY completed 5 waves (blue) at a strong resistance trend line (red) of the daily downtrend channel. An ABC (blue) zigzag is most likely taking place within wave 2 (purple). Also a head and shoulders reversal pattern (3 purple circles) seems to be unfolding at resistance (red).

1 hour

The USD/JPY break of support (green) could confirm the retracement within wave 2 (purple). A break above resistance trend lines (red/orange) could extend wave 1 (purple) to a higher high.

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[Admiral Markets]

US Dollar breaks support with impulsive price action

EUR/USD

4 hour

The EUR/USD bounced at the support trend line (dark green) as indicated in yesterday’s wave head line, but rallied with such a bullish momentum that a larger bullish ABC (blue) is probably taking place. Price is in a wave X (purple) unless it manages to break above resistance (red) and the top Fibonacci levels.

1 hour

The EUR/USD momentum is most likely a wave 3 (green) within the wave C (blue). A wave 4 (green) pullback could see support at the Fibonacci levels.

GBP/USD

4 hour

The GBP/USD is an ABC zigzag correction (green/pink) that is taking place in a bullish channel. The Fibonacci levels could be targets for the C wave.

1 hour

The GBP/USD also showed a bullish bounce as indicated by yesterday’s headline. The subsequent momentum seems to be a wave 3 (purple) and a retracement could meet support at the Fibonacci levels of wave 4 (purple) vs 3.

USD/JPY

4 hour

The USD/JPY indeed completed a head and shoulders reversal pattern (3 purple circles) after which it broke below support (dotted green). A strong bearish momentum unfolded during yesterday's trading that took price down to the 61.8% Fibonacci level. For the moment a bearish ABC (blue) is probably taking place within wave 2 (purple), unless price breaks below the 100% Fibonacci level.

1 hour

The USD/JPY momentum is strong and thus a wave 4 and 5 (brown) within wave C (blue) seems likely to take price to the 78.6% Fib, unless price breaks above resistance (red and orange).

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[Admiral Markets]

EUR/USD, GBP/USD setup ABC corrections within wave 4 pullback

EUR/USD

4 hour

The EUR/USD is in a wave X (purple) unless it manages to break above resistance (red) and the top Fibonacci levels. In that case a bullish break within wave X (brown) is the most likely scenario. A bearish bounce at resistance (red/Fibs) could see the start of wave Y (brown) within wave D (green).

1 hour

The EUR/USD is moving sideways and staying above the 23.6% Fibonacci level of wave 4 (green) vs 3. A bullish break above resistance (orange) could see price move towards the 78.6% Fib level of wave X (purple) vs W. A break below the support trend line (green) could still price bounce at the 38.2% or 50% Fibs.

GBP/USD

4 hour

The GBP/USD is an ABC zigzag correction (green/pink) after the break of the daily resistance trend line (dotted red). The Fibonacci levels could be targets for the C waves.

1 hour

The GBP/USD made a retracement via an ABC zigzag (purple) to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of wave 4 (blue) vs 3. A break above resistance (orange) could confirm the start of wave 5 (blue) with targets at the Fib levels. A break below support (green) could see price bounce at lowers Fibs of wave 4.

USD/JPY

4 hour

The USD/JPY is most likely completing a bearish ABC (blue) within wave 2 (purple), unless price breaks below the 100% Fibonacci level.

1 hour

https://s22.postimg.org/q7te09xmp/08_09_2016uj1.png

The USD/JPY is building a channel (purple), which could indicate the start of a bullish bounce at the 61.8% Fibonacci level. The alternative is a bearish break, which could indicate one more bearish swing to the 78.6% Fibonacci level.

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[Admiral Markets]

EUR/USD hits major 78.6% Fib after breaking consolidation zone

EUR/USD

4 hour

The EUR/USD has reached the 78.6% Fibonacci level of wave X (purple) and the resistance trend line (red). This zone will either cause a bearish turn or a bullish break. A bearish reversal confirms the development of a wave X (purple) within wave D (green). A bullish break indicates that a different wave X (brown) is still ongoing.

1 hour

The EUR/USD broke above the sideways consolidation zone (dotted orange) to complete wave 4 (green). The bullish breakout for wave 5 (green) was short and the bearish reaction at the 78.6% Fib could be explained by a wave 1 (green). A break above the origin (100% Fib) invalidates wave 1 but a break below support (green) makes a bearish breakout more likely.

GBP/USD

4 hour

The GBP/USD is an ABC zigzag correction (green/pink) after the break of the daily resistance trend line (dotted red). The Fibonacci levels could be targets for the C waves.

1 hour

The GBP/USD made a retracement via an ABC zigzag (purple) to the 38.2%-50% Fibonacci retracement level of wave 4 (blue) vs 3. A break above resistance (orange) could confirm the start of wave 5 (blue) with targets at the Fib levels.

USD/JPY

4 hour

The USD/JPY has bounced at the 61.8% Fibonacci level of wave 2 (purple), which is invalidated if price breaks below the 100% Fibonacci level. A break above resistance (red) confirms the end of the downtrend.

1 hour

The USD/JPY could be building deeper pullbacks via wave multiple wave 1-2 formations. This would be confirmed if price manages to break above resistance (orange). A break below support (purple) invalidates the wave 1-2 and makes a pullback to the 78.6% Fib of the 4 hour chart likely.

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[Admiral Markets]

Fibs and trend lines present barriers within corrective waves

EUR/USD

4 hour

The EUR/USD made a bearish turn at the 78.6% Fibonacci level of wave X (purple) and the resistance trend line (orange). This confirms the development of a wave X (purple) within wave d (green), unless price breaks above resistance, which would indicate that a different wave X (brown) is still ongoing. Wave d (green) will most likely complete at the 61.8% Fibonacci support level (green box).

1 hour

The EUR/USD is most likely building an ABC zigzag within wave X (blue) but a break above the 100% Fibonacci level invalidates wave X (blue). A break below the support trend line (purple) should indicate the start of wave Y (purple).

GBP/USD

4 hour

The GBP/USD is building an ABC zigzag correction (green/pink) after the break of the daily resistance trend line (dotted red). The current bearish price action is most likely part of a retracement. A breakout above resistance (orange) could indicate the potential continuation towards the Fibonacci levels of those C waves.

1 hour

The GBP/USD built a bearish ABC zigzag (purple) which has respected the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of wave 4 (blue) vs 3. A break below support could see price move towards the 61.8% Fibonacci support level, which could be a potential bouncing spot. A break above resistance (orange) could confirm the start of wave 5 (blue) with targets at the Fib levels.

USD/JPY

4 hour

The USD/JPY is again approaching the resistance trend line (red) of the daily downtrend channel. A break above resistance (red) confirms the end of the downtrend and the start of bullish price action. A break below the round level of 100 and the support trend line (green) invalidates the current wave structure and indicates the continuation of the downtrend.

1 hour

The USD/JPY is building a correction within a wave 4 (brown). A break above the resistance trend line (red) could signal the continuation of wave 5 (brown), while a break below the support trend line (green) invalidates wave 4 (brown).

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[Admiral Markets]

GBP/USD breaks above bearish channel within ABC zigzag

EUR/USD

4 hour

The EUR/USD is building a small contracting triangle chart pattern, which is indicated by the support and resistance trend lines (red/green). A break below the triangle confirms the development of multiple wave Y’s within wave d (green). A break above the triangle indicates that wave X (blue) is still active. A break above the bigger resistance line (orange) indicates that a different wave X (brown) is still ongoing.

1 hour

The EUR/USD indeed completed an ABC zigzag within wave X (blue) as indicated in yesterday’s wave analysis. Whether resistance can turn the EUR/USD back down remains to be seen and depends on the breakout direction.

GBP/USD

4 hour

The GBP/USD has found support at the confluence of trend lines (green). The bullish bounce managed to break the resistance trend line (dotted orange), which could signal the start of a wave 5 (blue) within a larger ABC zigzag correction (green/pink).

1 hour

The GBP/USD broke above the resistance (dotted orange) with bullish momentum. The wave 5 (blue) could see an extension with 5 inner waves (purple). A break below the 100% Fibonacci level of wave 2 vs 1 invalidates this wave structure. A break above resistance (yellow line) could see the continuation of the Cable within wave 5 (blue).

USD/JPY

4 hour

The USD/JPY is again approaching the resistance trend line (red) of the daily downtrend channel. A break above resistance (red) confirms the end of the downtrend and the start of bullish price action. A break below the round level of 100 and support trend line (green) invalidates the current wave structure and indicates the continuation of the downtrend.


1 hour

The USD/JPY has completed 5 bullish waves (brown) so the current bearish price action is most likely a retracement within a wave 2 (blue). A break below the 100% Fibonacci level of wave 2 vs 1 invalidates this wave structure. A break above the channel (orange) and resistance (red) increases the chance of a bullish breakout within waves 3.

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[Admiral Markets]

USD/JPY bullish breakout reaches key level in daily channel

EUR/USD

4 hour

The EUR/USD is trying to break below the smaller contracting triangle chart pattern (red/green lines), which would confirm the development of multiple wave Y’s within wave d (green). A break above the triangle indicates that wave X (blue) is still active. A break above the bigger resistance line (orange) indicates that a different wave X (brown) is still ongoing.

1 hour

The EUR/USD seems to have completed the complex wave X (blue) correction. The bearish price action is probably the start of wave A (green) unless price breaks above the resistance trend line (red).

GBP/USD

4 hour

The GBP/USD broke the support trend lines (dotted green) during yesterday’s trading. The bearish break made the impulsive bullish wave structure unlikely and a new corrective bullish structure seems its likely replacement, unless price manages to break below the 78.6% Fibonacci level and 1.30 round level.

1 hour

The GBP/USD is probably building a bearish ABC zigzag (purple). The Fibonacci retracement levels of wave B (purple) are most likely expected to offer resistance.

USD/JPY

4 hour

The USD/JPY broke a smaller trend line (dotted orange) and has reached an important break or bounce spot at the resistance trend line (red) of the daily downtrend channel. A break above resistance (red) confirms the end of the downtrend and the start of bullish price action. A break below the various bottoms of this chart invalidates the current wave structure and indicates the continuation of the downtrend.

1 hour

The USD/JPY broke above the channel (dotted orange) as indicated yesterday. Price is expected to build a wave 4 correction after completing wave 3 (brown) within waves 3 (blue/purple).

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[Admiral Markets]

EUR/USD starts bullish push but strong resistance remains crucial

EUR/USD

4 hour

The EUR/USD is moving sideways in a larger consolidation zone between support (green) and resistance (orange). A break out below the support trend lines confirms the continuation of waves Y within wave d (green). The current Fibonacci levels should act as resistance.

1 hour

The EUR/USD did not manage to break horizontal support yesterday (green box) and made a bullish bounce. The momentum is making it likely that a 5 wave ending diagonal is taking place (orange).

GBP/USD

4 hour

The GBP/USD is making a bullish retracement after breaking below the support trend lines (dotted green) earlier this week. Price is expected to find resistance and make a bearish turn as part of wave B (purple) unless price manages to break above the top of wave X (blue).

1 hour

The GBP/USD is probably building a bearish ABC zigzag (purple). The Fibonacci retracement levels of wave B (purple) are most likely expected to offer resistance. The invalidation level of wave B (purple) is the 100% Fib, which would indicate that a bearish correction has completed at the most recent low.

USD/JPY

4 hour

The USD/JPY has till now failed in breaking the resistance trend line (red) of the daily downtrend channel. A break above resistance (red) confirms the end of the downtrend and the start of bullish price action. A break below the 100% Fibonacci level of wave 2 (blue) indicates that another wave 2 (purple) is still active.

1 hour

The USD/JPY failed to break above the 127.2% Fib level of wave B (brown) and seems to be expanding the correction within wave 2 (blue) via an ABC zigzag (brown).

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[Admiral Markets]

US Dollar gains strong bullish momentum in wave 3

EUR/USD

4 hour

The trend line (orange) indeed acted as resistance and the EUR/USD fell below support (dotted green) as indicated last week. A bearish zigzag seems the most likely and the current bearish momentum is wave A (green). On the larger scale a contracting triangle is probably taking place and price is now in the wave d (green).

1 hour

The EUR/USD is building a retracement within wave 4 (orange) unless price breaks above the 50% Fibonacci level, which then makes it more likely that wave A (green) has been completed at the most recent bottom.

GBP/USD

4 hour

The GBP/USD wave count is now showing a bearish impulse (pink) but the wave count is vulnerable to change if price does not break below the 78.6% Fibonacci level (blue) and breaks above resistance (red).

1 hour

The GBP/USD is building a wave 4 (blue) retracement of the impulsive wave 3 (blue). Usually price will respect the 23.6% to 50% Fibonacci levels within a wave 4. A break above the 61.8% invalidates the current wave 4 (blue).

USD/JPY

4 hour

The USD/JPY is struggling to break above the top of a daily downtrend channel (red). A break above resistance (red) confirms the end of the downtrend and the start of bullish price action. A break below the 100% Fibonacci level of wave 2 (blue) indicates that another wave 2 (purple) is still active.

1 hour

The USD/JPY could have completed an ABC zigzag (brown) within wave 2 (blue) and is now potentially starting bullish price action if price manages to stay above the trend line (green) and 100% Fibonacci level plus break above resistance (orange).

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[Admiral Markets]

EUR/USD, GBP/USD retrace back to 38.2% and 50% Fibonacci levels

EUR/USD

4 hour

The EUR/USD is building a small pause at the Fibonacci level after breaking below the support trend line (dotted green). A bearish continuation could take price to lower Fibonacci levels.

1 hour

The EUR/USD has retraced to the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of wave 4 (orange) vs 3. A break above the 78.6% Fib invalidates the wave 4 (orange). A break below support (green) could confirm the wave 5 (green) of wave A (orange).

GBP/USD

4 hour

The GBP/USD needs to break below the 78.6% Fibonacci level (blue) and support trend line (green) before price has a chance of moving towards the Fibonacci targets of wave 3 (green) vs 1. A break above resistance (red) invalidates the current wave 3’s.

1 hour

The GBP/USD has retraced back to the 38.2% Fibonacci level of wave 4 (blue) vs 3. A break above the resistance trend line (red) and 78.6% Fibonacci level invalidates wave 4 (blue) whereas a break below support (green) could indicate the continuation of wave 3 (green).

USD/JPY

4 hour

The USD/JPY is in a contracting triangle chart pattern (green/orange lines). A break above resistance (red) confirms the end of the downtrend and the start of bullish price action. A break below the support line (green) indicates that another wave 2 (purple) is still active.

1 hour

The USD/JPY has reached the 78.6% Fibonacci level of wave 2 (blue). A break above the resistance (red) could confirm the start of bullish price action, whereas a break below support (green) makes a wave 2 (blue) less likely.

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