Elliott Wave Analysis by Admiral Markets

[Admiral Markets]

EUR/USD, GBP/USD bearish breakout after turn at Fibonacci levels

EUR/USD

4 hour

The EUR/USD broke the support trend line (dotted green) again and price is now building a bearish channel (orange). A break below the 78.6% Fibonacci level could see the EUR/USD fall towards the next Fibonacci targets within a larger contracting triangle (wave d green).

1 hour

The EUR/USD has paused at the previous bottom (green) and a break below the support is needed before a continuation of wave 5 (orange) is possible.

GBP/USD

4 hour

The GBP/USD indeed completed a wave 4 (blue) as indicated during this week’s wave analysis. The Cable is now falling towards the Fibonacci targets of wave 3 (green).

1 hour

The GBP/USD seems to be building an extended wave 5 (grey) within wave 5 (blue). A break above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement invalidates the bearish 5 wave (grey).

USD/JPY

4 hour

The USD/JPY is in a descending wedge chart pattern (green/orange lines). A break above resistance (red) confirms the end of the downtrend and the start of bullish price action. A break below the support line (green) indicates that a larger correction within wave 2 (purple) is likely.

1 hour

The USD/JPY is currently showing volatility around the support (green) and resistance (dotted orange) trend lines. A full break above the resistance is needed before the wave 2 (purple) can be considered completed.

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[Admiral Markets]

US Dollar strength fades after divergence pattern appears

EUR/USD

4 hour

The EUR/USD bounced at the previous bottom (green) during yesterday’s trading. The bullish bounce has probably completed a bearish ABC (green). The resistance (red) and support (green) trend lines indicate a potential descending wedge chart pattern, which is confirmed if price breaks below support. For the moment a wave X (blue) within a larger wave d (green) triangle is likely.

1 hour

The EUR/USD completed a wave 5 (orange) after divergence appeared (purple) and will most likely build a bullish ABC zigzag (green) within wave X (blue). The Fibonacci levels of wave B (blue) vs A are expected to act as support with a break below the 100% level indicating an invalidation.

GBP/USD

4 hour

The GBP/USD has completed a bearish wave at the recent bottom, which could either completed a wave 3 (green) or wave C (purple) of a larger ABCDE contracting triangle (purple). A break above the 50% Fibonacci level of wave 4 (green) vs 3 and resistance trend line (red) invalidates wave 4 (green) and increases the chances of a wave d and e (purple).

1 hour

The GBP/USD is making a bullish wave and arriving at a key resistance zone (as indicated in the 4 hour chart) after wave 5 (blue) showed divergence (purple line) with wave 3 (blue).

USD/JPY

4 hour

The USD/JPY continued with its bearish correction and has now reached the 78.6% Fibonacci level. A break below the 100% Fib level of wave 2 (purple) vs 1 invalidates the bullish wave 1-2 (purple) and indicates a continuation of the downtrend (red).

1 hour

The USD/JPY is showing a potential bearish ABC (brown) correction unless price manages to break below support.

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[Admiral Markets]

Critical support and resistance levels visible in Forex market

EUR/USD

4 hour

If the EUR/USD manages to break the resistance trend line (orange), then the Fibonacci levels of wave X (blue) are expected to stop price from moving much further. Only a break above the top (purple) would invalidate the larger consolidation zone marked as wave X (purple and blue). Overall it seems most likely that a larger wave Y (brown/purple) is developing within a contracting triangle on the daily chart (wave d green).

1 hour

The EUR/USD is either building a bearish ABC zigzag (orange) within wave B (green), which means that price will break below the support trend line (dark green), or the EUR/USD will complete the bullish ABC (green) zigzag within wave X (blue), which means that price will break above resistance (red).

GBP/USD

4 hour

The GBP/USD is building either a wave 3 (pink) within a larger downtrend or wave d (purple) of a larger ABCDE contracting triangle (purple). A break above the 100% Fibonacci level of potential wave 2 (blue) vs 1 and resistance trend line (red) increases the chance of a wave d and e (purple).

1 hour

The GBP/USD could be building an ABC (grey) within wave 2 (blue). A break below support (green) could see price retesting the previous bottom at 1.29. A break below the bottom could indicate one more bearish push towards the bottom on the 4 hour chart at 1.2850.

USD/JPY

4 hour

The USD/JPY remains stuck between the resistance of the daily downtrend channel (red) and the support of the various bottoms (green). A break below the bottoms of that support invalidates the bullish reversal, whereas a break above the bearish channel confirms the potential for a wave 3 (purple).

1 hour

The USD/JPY bullish bounce could be the first indication of a new trend direction (wave 1 blue).

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[Admiral Markets]

US Dollar support levels indicate key decision zone

EUR/USD

4 hour

The EUR/USD managed to break above the resistance trend line (dotted orange) yesterday but also was unable to push above the Fibonacci levels of wave X (blue) as expected. Only a break above the top (purple) invalidates the larger consolidation zone marked as wave X (blue). It seems more likely that a larger waves Y is developing within a contracting triangle on the daily chart (wave d green).

1 hour

Whether the EUR/USD will start the bearish momentum needed to start the wave Y (blue) remains to be confirmed. At the moment price has still two layers of support below it (green). A bearish break could indicate the start of a bearish ABC zigzag (green). A bullish bounce at support, however could see price retest higher resistance again like the 61.8% or 78.6% Fibonacci levels.

GBP/USD

4 hour

The GBP/USD is either building a wave 3 (pink) within a larger downtrend or wave d (purple) of a larger ABCDE contracting triangle (purple). A break above the 100% Fibonacci level of potential wave 2 (blue) vs 1 and resistance zone (red/orange) increases the chance of a wave d and e (purple) whereas a break below the bottom (blue) of wave b (purple) favours a wave 3 (pink).

1 hour

The GBP/USD broke the support trend line (dotted green) yesterday but price was unable to break below the previous bottom and trend line (solid green). A bullish correction via an ABC (grey) seems likely at the moment. The Fibonacci levels are expected to act as resistance.

USD/JPY

4 hour

The USD/JPY remains stuck between the resistance of the daily downtrend channel (red) and the support of the various bottoms (green) and 88.6% Fibonacci level of wave 2 (purple). A break below the bottoms invalidates the bullish reversal, whereas a break above the bearish channel confirms the potential for a wave 3 (purple).

1 hour

The USD/JPY made a double bottom yesterday and is reacting with strong bullish momentum. A bullish bounce could be the first indication of a new trend direction (wave 1 blue) but a break above the resistance (red) should confirm it.

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[Admiral Markets]

EUR/USD keeps building zigzags and USD/JPY breaks with impulse

EUR/USD

4 hour

The EUR/USD is building a bullish retracement, which could become a head and shoulders pattern (purple boxes) if price makes a bearish turn at 1.1250. Such a rejection could occur when a bearish ABC (blue) zigzag occurs within the larger consolidation zone (purple/blue lines).

1 hour

The EUR/USD completed a 5th wave (green) within wave A (blue), which was followed by a new bullish wave A and B (green) zigzag. Price is now probably in a wave C (green) zigzag, unless price breaks above the 100% Fibonacci level.

GBP/USD

4 hour

The GBP/USD broke above the resistance trend line (dotted red), which makes a larger ABCDE contracting triangle (purple) more likely at the moment. However, the bearish alternative (pink 3) has not been removed from the chart because price is moving higher in a corrective channel (orange/green lines). A break above the 100% Fibonacci level is needed before wave 2 (blue) is invalidated.

1 hour

The GBP/USD is showing two wave counts. One where a larger ABC bullish zigzag (purple) is taking place within wave E (purple) and another where WXY (grey) is built within wave 2 (blue).

USD/JPY

4 hour

The USD/JPY remains stuck between the resistance of the daily downtrend channel (red) and the support of the various bottoms (green) and 88.6% Fibonacci level of wave 2 (purple). A break below the bottoms invalidates the bullish reversal, whereas a break above the bearish channel confirms the potential for a wave 3 (purple).

1 hour

The USD/JPY broke above the resistance (dotted orange) and indeed wave 3 (brown/blue) momentum seems to have started. If this is the case, then price is expected to build a bull flag or triangle at one of the Fibonacci targets as part of a wave 4 (brown) within wave 3 (blue).

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[Admiral Markets]

EUR/USD, GBP/USD build opposite head and shoulders reversal patterns

EUR/USD

4 hour

The EUR/USD continued with its bullish retracement yesterday but the resistance at 1.1250 has so far stopped price from moving higher. As expected in yesterday’s analysis, the head and shoulders pattern (purple boxes) is a reversal pattern that could indicate a bearish bounce if price manages to break the neck line (light green) of that pattern. Such a rejection could occur when a bearish ABC (blue) zigzag occurs that could bring price back towards the bottom of the larger consolidation zone (purple/green lines).

1 hour

The EUR/USD seems to have completed a bullish ABC zigzag (green) within wave B (blue). A move higher would still resistance at trend lines (orange/red) and Fib levels but a break above that zone would invalidate the current ABC (blue). A break below support (light green) could see the potential start of bearish momentum (dark red arrows).

GBP/USD

4 hour

The GBP/USD bearish price action seems to move correctively, which makes a larger ABC (light purple) the most likely wave structure at the moment. Price has retested the previous bottom and is stopping at the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of wave B (light purple), which is the level of a potential inverted head and shoulders (purples boxes) reversal pattern. Price could either be in a wave E (purple) or wave 4 (pink), which depends on whether price moves above the 100% Fibonacci level (wave E) or stays below it (wave 4).

1 hour

The GBP/USD break above resistance (orange) could see a bullish move higher but a break below the 100% Fibonacci invalidates the wave B (blue).

USD/JPY

4 hour

The USD/JPY remains stuck between the resistance of the daily downtrend channel (red) and the support of the various bottoms (green) and 88.6% Fibonacci level of wave 2 (purple). A break below the bottoms invalidates the bullish reversal, whereas a break above the bearish channel confirms the potential for a wave 3 (purple).

1 hour

The USD/JPY potential break above the resistance (red) trend line could spark the start of a wave 3 (brown/blue) bullish momentum. A push lower could still see price bounce at the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level but a break below the 100% Fib invalidates the wave 1-2 (brown).

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[Admiral Markets]

US Dollar breakout to confirm or invalidate key levels

EUR/USD

4 hour

Support and resistance (S&R) levels remain key. The EUR/USD remains in a contacting ABCDE triangle chart pattern (blue) unless price breaks above the invalidation level (pink). A break below support (green) indicates that a wave Y (brown) is most likely starting within wave d (green).

1 hour

https://s15.postimg.org/4v5v1yqgr/03_10_2016eu1.png

The EUR/USD is building a smaller triangle indicated by the support (green) and resistance (orange) trend lines. A push higher is expected at the moment to complete the bullish ABC (green) but a break above pink invalidates the wave E (blue).

GBP/USD

4 hour

The GBP/USD could either be in a wave E (green) or wave 4 (pink). A break below support (blue) makes the pink wave count more likely whereas a break above resistance (red) makes the wave E (green) triangle more likely.

1 hour

The GBP/USD is behaving more correctively and a complex correction (WXY blue) is emerging.

USD/JPY

4 hour

The USD/JPY remains stuck between the resistance of the daily downtrend channel (red) and the support of the various bottoms (green) plus 88.6% Fibonacci level of wave 2 (purple). A break below the bottoms invalidates the bullish reversal, whereas a break above the bearish channel confirms the potential for a wave 3 (purple).

1 hour

The USD/JPY potential break above the resistance (red) trend line could spark the start of a wave 3 (brown/blue) bullish momentum. A push lower could still see price bounce at the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level but a break below the 100% Fib invalidates the wave 1-2 (brown).

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[Admiral Markets]

USD/JPY breaks major resistance of daily downtrend channel

EUR/USD

4 hour

The EUR/USD is moving sideways as part of a large consolidation zone, which is indicated by the support (green) and resistance (red) trend lines. An ABCDE triangle chart pattern (blue) is most likely unfolding within wave X (purple) unless price breaks above the invalidation level (pink). A break below support (green) indicates that a wave Y (brown) is most likely starting within wave d (green).

1 hour

The EUR/USD broke the support (green) of the smaller triangle yesterday and price seems to have moved down as part of a bearish ABC zigzag (orange). A bullish bounce could occur at the Fibonacci retracement levels if a bullish pattern appears. The bounce could see price challenge the 1.1250 zone. A break below the 100% Fibonacci level invalidates wave B (green) but also a bear flag pattern makes an ABC zigzag (orange) less likely and a new bearish wave count more likely.

GBP/USD

4 hour

The GBP/USD broke below the bottom (dotted green), which means that a bearish impulsive wave count is currently valid. Price is now moving towards the Fibonacci targets although there is one more bottom remaining at 1.28 (equal to the 50% Fib).

1 hour

The GBP/USD broke the support trend line (dotted green) and a new bearish impulse become visible. A break of support could see price fall towards the other Fibonacci targets.

USD/JPY

4 hour

The USD/JPY is trying to break above the resistance of the daily downtrend channel (dotted red), which would confirm the potential for a wave 3 (purple).

1 hour

The USD/JPY broke above the resistance (red/orange) trend lines which sparked the start of a wave 3 (brown/blue) bullish momentum. Price is now moving towards the Fibonacci targets. Any bullish flag chart patterns or small consolidation zones could see further potential breakouts.

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[Admiral Markets]

GBP/USD impulse breaks below 1.28 yearly low

EUR/USD

4 hour

The EUR/USD made a strong bearish and bullish movement yesterday. The price action however remained part of a large consolidation zone, which is indicated by the support (green) and resistance (red) trend lines. An ABCDE triangle chart pattern (blue) is most likely unfolding within wave X (purple) unless price breaks above the invalidation level (pink). A break below support (green) indicates that a wave Y (brown) is most likely starting within waved (green).

1 hour

The EUR/USD completed the bearish ABC zigzag (orange) mentioned yesterday. The bullish bounce near support (green) levels has seen price quickly move above 1.12. For the moment I am expecting price to remain choppy and a potential ABC (green) could form within wave E (blue).

GBP/USD

4 hour

The GBP/USD has moved below the low at 1.28 of earlier this year and is now building a bearish impulse which has been labelled as a wave 3 (blue). Price has now reached the 261.8% Fibonacci target, which could cause a retracement. The next bigger target could be near 1.25.

1 hour

The GBP/USD seems to have completed 5 waves (grey/orange) within wave 3 (blue). A wave 4 retracement (blue) should see price respect and turn at the shallower Fibonacci levels like 23.6% and 38.2% Fib.

USD/JPY

4 hour

The USD/JPY broke above the resistance of the daily downtrend channel (dotted red) and a wave 3 seems to be developing (purple).

1 hour

The USD/JPY is showing strong bullish momentum potentially as part of multiple wave 3’s. The current wave 3 (green) could see a light, shallow and corrective wave 4 (green) which usually speaking turns at the 23.66 or 38.2% Fibonacci level.

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[Admiral Markets]

GBP/USD, USD/JPY move quickly in powerful momentum swings

EUR/USD

4 hour

The EUR/USD is showing multiple impulses up and down and all together they form a larger consolidation zone (green and red trend lines). An ABCDE triangle chart pattern (blue) is most likely unfolding within wave X (purple) unless price breaks above the invalidation level (pink). A break below support (green) indicates that a wave Y (brown) is most likely starting within wave d (green).

1 hour

The EUR/USD retraced back to the 50% Fibonacci level of wave B (green) but price could retest lower Fibonacci levels before completing potential wave C (green). A break below the 100% Fibonacci level of wave B vs A invalidates the bullish ABC (green) whereas a break above the resistance (pink) invalidates wave X (purple).

GBP/USD

4 hour

The GBP/USD is building a (light) retracement within a strong bearish impulse, which has broken previous bottoms and lows of earlier this year. A break of the support (green) could price extend the decline towards the Fibonacci targets (red arrows).

1 hour

The GBP/USD seems to have completed 5 waves (grey/orange) within wave 3 (blue). A wave 4 retracement (blue) should see price respect and turn at the shallower Fibonacci levels like 23.6% and 38.2% Fib. A break below the bottom should build a small bear flag (orange arrow) emerge before dropping to the Fibonacci targets, or else the break could still be part of a larger wave 4 (blue) correction.

USD/JPY

4 hour

The USD/JPY broke above the resistance of the daily downtrend channel (dotted red) and a wave 3 seems to be developing (purple).

1 hour

The USD/JPY is showing strong bullish momentum, potentially as part of multiple wave 3’s. The current wave 3 (brown) could still push higher if price is able to break above the top and 200% Fibonacci target (blue arrow). If a retracement does occur, then the wave 4 (brown) usually turns at the 23.6% or 38.2% Fibonacci level (green arrows).

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