Elliott Wave Analysis by Admiral Markets

[Admiral Markets]

EUR/USD tests weekly 1.05 bottom after no vote in Italian referendum

EUR/USD

4 hour

The proposed Constitutional amendment vote in Italy was rejected in a referendum on Sunday 4 December. The no vote won by a clear majority and took nearly 60% of the votes. The EUR/USD reacted with bearishness to the news and fell back to the daily-weekly support zone (green lines).

1 hour

The support Fibonacci levels are key break or bounce spots. A break below the 138.2% Fibonacci level of wave X (brown) invalidates the correction and indicates a continuation of the downtrend (wave 5 blue 4 hour chart). A bounce at support could, however, see price expand the correction of wave 2 (green).

DAX30

4 hour

The German DAX index is showing a retracement towards the Fibonacci levels of wave 2 (brown). Price has bounced at the 50% Fib but a deeper pullback could occur to lower Fib levels if the rally fails to break above resistance (red/orange). The Fibonacci levels of wave 2 vs 1 should act as a support but a break below the 100% level invalidates wave 2 (brown). A break above the resistance (orange/red) could trigger a potential wave 3 (orange).

1 hour

If price fails to break above the Fibonacci levels of wave B vs A then a larger bearish ABC zigzag (purple) could take place.

USD/JPY

4 hour

The USD/JPY uptrend is pausing and showing a larger correction with a wave 4 (blue). A break above resistance (red) could see price continue higher towards the Fib targets of wave 5 (blue).

1 hour

The USD/JPY seems to have expanded the retracement within wave 4 (blue) via a WXY (brown) correction. A break below support (green) could price extend the wave 4 (blue) to a lower point.

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[Admiral Markets]

EUR/USD shows 300 pip rally within bullish ABC zigzag

EUR/USD

4 hour

The EUR/USD bounced at the support zone (green lines) as expected and indicated in yesterday’s wave analysis. The bullish rally has been strong and impulsive but could face resistance at the Fibonacci levels of wave 2 (green). Waves 2 do tend to retrace deep so price might only pause at the 38.2% Fib but eventually retrace to a higher Fib like the 50% level.

1 hour

The impulsive bullish rally seems to be a wave 3 (blue) which means that a shallow wave 4 (blue) correction could emerge. The bullish 5 waves could complete (blue) a larger ABC (purple) zigzag within wave 2 (green).

GBP/USD

4 hour

The bullish break above resistance (dotted red) is keeping its momentum but will most likely face a key bounce or break spot at the 61.8% Fibonacci level of wave 4 (green). A break above the 61.8% could also make it likely that a different wave structure is valid (rather than a wave 4).

1 hour

The Cable is building a rising wedge chart pattern (red/green lines) which is typically a bearish reversal pattern. A break below the support trend line could start a new downtrend but the danger of a bullish continuation is always present. A break above the resistance trend line could see price extend wave 5 (brown/purple) towards the Fib targets.

USD/JPY

4 hour

The USD/JPY uptrend is pausing and showing a larger correction with a wave 4 (blue). A break above resistance (red) could see price continue higher towards the Fib targets of wave 5 (blue).

1 hour

The USD/JPY could be building a 5 wave extension (brown) within the wave 5 (blue). A break below the 100% Fib of wave 2 vs 1 invalidates the wave 2 (brown). A break above resistance (red) could see wave 3 (brown) continue.

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[Admiral Markets]

USD shows a wide range of waves versus EUR, GBP and JPY

EUR/USD

4 hour

The EUR/USD bullish bounce at the support zone (green lines) could see a continuation higher once price completes a wave B (purple) at one of the Fibonacci levels. The bullish zigzag should price towards the Fib levels of wave 2 (green) without breaking above the 100% level (invalidation).

1 hour

The EUR/USD failed to break the top and built a larger ABC (blue) correction instead within wave B (purple). Price needs to break above resistance (red) before a wave C (purple) is confirmed. Price could have completed the wave B (purple) at the 38.2% Fib but could also retrace deeper towards the 50% Fib, which will depend on the price action during the European and London open.

GBP/USD

4 hour

The GBP/USD indeed broke the rising wedge chart pattern which was mentioned yesterday. Price broke below the support trend line (dotted green) which could indicate that the WXY (blue) correction is completed within wave 4 (green).

1 hour

The rising wedge formation was an indication of a potential reversal pattern and price seems to be building bearish 5 waves as part of a potential new trend.

USD/JPY

4 hour

The USD/JPY uptrend is pausing and showing a larger correction after completing a wave 4 (blue) and potentially multiple waves 1-2 (orange/brown). A break above resistance (red) could see price continue higher towards the Fib targets of wave 3 (brown).

1 hour

The USD/JPY could be building a 5 wave extension (brown) within the wave 5 (blue). A break below the 100% Fib of wave 2 vs 1 invalidates the wave 2 (brown). A break above resistance (red) could see wave 3 (brown) continue.

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[Admiral Markets]

USD/JPY wave structure indicates bearish retracement within uptrend

EUR/USD

4 hour

The EUR/USD turned at the 38.2% Fibonacci support level of wave B (purple). The bullish zigzag could price towards the Fib levels of wave C (purple) and wave 2 (green) but a break above the 100% level invalidates the wave count.

1 hour

The EUR/USD could extend the wave C (purple) with an internal 5 wave (blue) if price manages to break above the previous top. A break below the support trend line (green) could still be a retracement within wave B (purple).

GBP/USD

4 hour

The GBP/USD break of the rising wedge saw the start of bearish momentum which has been labelled as a wave 1 (blue). The wave 2 (blue) pullback could turn at the Fibonacci levels but a break above the 100% invalidates the wave count.

1 hour

The Cable could built an ABC zigzag within wave 2 (blue).

USD/JPY

4 hour

The USD/JPY uptrend is showing a larger correction and consolidation zone. A break above resistance (red) could see price continue higher towards the Fib targets of wave 3 (brown). A break of support (green) could see a larger retracement develop towards previous bottoms (light green).

1 hour

The USD/JPY could be building a wave 2 (brown) but a break below the 100% invalidates the wave structure. A break above resistance (red) could see price head towards the Fib targets of wave 3 (borwn).

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[Admiral Markets]

EUR/USD declines 300 pips after completing wave C at 50% Fibonacci

EUR/USD

4 hour

The EUR/USD completed a bullish ABC zigzag (purple) as expected and price turned at the Fibonacci levels of wave2 (green). The strong decline could be part of a wave 3 (green) if price manages to break below the weekly support zone (green lines).

1 hour

The EUR/USD bearish price action seems to have completed a wave 1 (brown) and price could build a retracement within wave 2 (brown). A break above the 100% level invalidates the wave 1-2 (brown) count.

GBP/USD

4 hour

The GBP/USD also showed a bearish turn at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, which could be part of a larger wave 1-2 (blue). A break below the support trend line (green) is needed before a larger wave 3 (blue) within waves 5 is possible.

1 hour

The wave 3 (blue) becomes invalidated if price manages to break above the 61.8% Fibonacci resistance level of wave 4 (orange). A break below the support (green) could see a wave 5 of wave 3 (blue) develop.

USD/JPY

4 hour

The USD/JPY uptrend is showing a larger correction and consolidation zone. A break above resistance (red) could see price continue higher towards the Fib targets of wave 3 (brown). A break of support (green) could see a larger retracement develop towards previous bottoms (light green).

1 hour

The USD/JPY bounced at the 78.6% Fibonacci support level. Price would need to break above the previous tops (red) before a breakout and a wave 3 (brown) become possible or else the wave count is vulnerable to change as price expands the correction sideways.

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[Admiral Markets]

EUR/USD challenges major 1.05 support zone yet again

EUR/USD

4 hour

The EUR/USD bearish trend is yet again challenging the major support levels (green lines) from the long-term time frame charts. A bearish break should see price continue lower within a wave 3 (green).

1 hour

A bullish bounce however could see the EUR/USD build a bullish retracement within wave 2 (brown). A break above the 100% level invalidates the wave 1-2 (brown) count.

GBP/USD

4 hour

The GBP/USD needs to break below the support trend line (green) before a larger wave 3 (blue) within waves 5 is possible. A break above the resistance trend line (red) would invalidate the current wave structure.

1 hour

The GBP/USD is moving sideways which is often a wave 4 (orange) type of formation. A break below the support level (green) could see price continue within wave 3 (blue).

USD/JPY

4 hour

The USD/JPY uptrend is indeed continuing after a large correction and consolidation zone. The break above resistance (red) is part of a wave 5 (blue) of wave 3 (purple).

1 hour

The USD/JPY is most likely still in a wave 3 (orange/brown) impulse. Once the wave 3 is completed, a sideways retracement for wave 4 and an uptrend continuation for wave 5 continuation is expected.

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[Admiral Markets]

USD/JPY uptrend retraces back to broken resistance

EUR/USD

4 hour

The EUR/USD bearish price action bounced at the major support levels (green lines) from the long-term time frame charts. A bullish retracement is probably occurring within a larger downtrend, which has been labelled as a wave 2 (brown). A bearish break below support (green) should see price continue lower within a wave 3 (green)

1 hour

A bullish bounce is indeed creating a retracement within wave 2 (brown). The Fibonacci levels are expected to act as resistance, but a break above the 100% level invalidates the wave 1-2 (brown) count. A break above resistance could see price continue to the 50% Fib. A failure to break the support (green) could see a wave B (purple) develop.

GBP/USD

4 hour

The GBP/USD needs to break below the support trend line (green) before a larger wave 3 (blue) within wave 5 is possible. A break above the 100% level of wave 2 vs 1 invalidates the current wave count.

1 hour

The GBP/USD broke above the resistance trend lines (dotted) with strong momentum which has been labelled as a wave c (purple). The Fibonacci levels could act as resistance but a break above the 100% level invalidates the structure.

USD/JPY

4 hour

The USD/JPY uptrend showed a new higher high after breaking resistance (dotted red). Price is now building a bearish retracement and could use the previous tops as a potential support level (green). If price does bounce then the Fibonacci levels could act as targets.

1 hour

The USD/JPY is most likely in a wave 4 (brown) correction but a break below support (green) does invalidate this wave count. Once the wave 4 has been completed, an uptrend continuation for wave 5 continuation is expected.

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[Admiral Markets]

EUR/USD Builds Bullish ABC Zigzag within Bearish Wave 2

EUR/USD

4 hour

The EUR/USD is probably building bullish retracement within the larger downtrend. Wave 2 (brown) however becomes invalidated if price were to break above the 100% Fibonacci level of wave 2 vs 1. A bearish break below support (green) should see price continue lower within a wave 3 (green).

1 hour

The EUR/USD is building an ABC zigzag (purple) correction within wave 2 (brown). The Fibonacci levels are expected to act as resistance with wave 2 vs 1 and as support with wave B vs A unless price breaks below the support zone (greens).

GBP/USD

4 hour

The GBP/USD needs to break below the support trend lines (green) before a larger wave 3 (blue) within wave 5 is possible. A break above the 100% level of wave 2 vs 1 invalidates the current wave count.

1 hour

The GBP/USD made one more higher high but then turned at the 78.6% Fibonacci resistance level. This could have completed the wave 2 (brown) but a break above the 100% level at 1.2775 invalidates that wave count.

USD/JPY

4 hour

The USD/JPY uptrend is now building a bearish retracement and could use the previous tops as a potential support and bounce level (green). If price does build the bullish bounce, then the Fibonacci levels could act as targets.

1 hour

The USD/JPY is most likely in a wave 4 (brown) correction but a break below support (green) invalidates this wave count. A breakout above resistance (red) could spark the start of a bullish rally within wave 5 (brown/blue).

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[Admiral Markets]

US Dollar Gains 200+ Pips after Rate Hike to 0.75%

EUR/USD

4 hour

Yesterday the central bank of the U.S. (Fed) decided to increase its interest rate by a quarter percent from 0.5% to 0.75%. The rate hike had a positive impact on the US Dollar (USD), which saw gains across the board against the EUR, GBP and JPY. The EUR/USD broke the support trend line (dotted blue) and fell below the 1.05 support level (dotted green). Price will however still need to break below the previous low at +/-1.0450. A bearish break is needed before a wave 3 (brown) has the potential to be confirmed and develop beyond the 100% level.

1 hour

The EUR/USD completed the ABC zigzag (purple) and most likely finished wave 2 (brown), although it does depend on how price reacts at the last support level (green). A strong bullish bounce could indicate that a correction is still ongoing.

GBP/USD

4 hour

The GBP/USD also responded with bearish price action in response to the rate hike in the US. The Cable respected the resistance trend line (red) and showed a bearish turn. Price broke below one support trend line (dotted green) but still needs to break below the next support trend line (green) before a larger wave 3 (blue) within wave 5 is possible.

1 hour

The GBP/USD seems to be in a wave 3 (orange) impulse and could head towards lower Fib targets. Once wave 3 is completed, it should build a shallow wave 4 correction and then continue with a wave 5 within wave 3 (blue).

USD/JPY

4 hour

The USD/JPY also continued with its uptrend once the rate hike was announced. Price broke above the resistance (dotted red) of the bearish retracement and showed again strong bullish momentum as part of the wave 5 (brown/blue) of wave 3 (purple).

1 hour

The USD/JPY price action is showing strong bullish momentum after the bullish breakout. Wave 3 (orange) could potentially still push towards the Fibonacci targets but eventually price should develop a shallow wave 4 pullback and then see a wave 5 continuation.

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[Admiral Markets]

USD Bearish Retrace to 38.2% Fib within Bullish Trend

EUR/USD

4 hour

The EUR/USD bearish break below the support levels (dotted green) is seeing a bullish retracement at the moment. A wave 3 (brown) now seems likely although price needs to push below the 100% level to confirm a wave 3. The broken support (dotted green) could have the opposite role and become future resistance.

1 hour

The EUR/USD seems be in a wave 4 (purple) correction. A bearish turn at the Fibonacci levels of wave 4 (purple) could indicate a continuation of wave 3 (brown). A break above the 61.8% Fibonacci level of wave 4 vs 3 makes a wave 4 (purple) unlikely.

GBP/USD

4 hour

The GBP/USD bearish trend is also seeing a bullish retracement develop. The Cable could see further extensions to the Fibonacci targets if price manages to break below the 161.8% level.

1 hour

The GBP/USD seems to be in a wave 4 (orange) correction and the Fibonacci retracement levels of wave 4 could act as resistance. A break above the 61.8% Fibonacci level of wave 4 vs 3 makes a wave 4 (orange) less likely.

USD/JPY

4 hour

The USD/JPY uptrend is still pushing further but also this USD currency pair is witnessing a correction. A break above the resistance level (red) could see price continue towards the Fibonacci targets.

1 hour

The USD/JPY is most likely in a shallow wave 4 pullback (orange) and it could turn at the Fibonacci retracement levels of wave 4 (orange). A break below the 61.8% makes a wave 4 less likely. If price turns at one of the wave 4 Fibs, then price should continue towards a wave 5 (orange/brown/blue).

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