Triantus Shango
Sergeant Major
- Messages
- 1,371
ok here we go... getting my feet wet at this forecasting thing... mainly to keep myself honest and use the sting of public shame to do better when wrong.
p = price
DATE: 9.5 - 9.6
assumptions: gold will hit USD 2K, USD will weaken, Germany's constitutional court will rule in favor of EU rescue measures
as long as the following conditions remain true on the following time frames:
Monthly: p >= 50 SMA and p>= fib 23.6 [18839-47825]
Daily: p >= fib 61.8 [3838-4517]
H1+H4: p >= M S1 (monthly support 1) @ 4097, DPO (detrended price oscillator) + %R all unwind from oversold and MACDOsma shows significant momentum impulse to the upside
potential T/P are the various fib retracements (your guess is as good as mine) from:
[43739-40603]
[4463-40603]
[45287-40603]
HOWEVER: i'd watch the following resistance (RSST) confluence zones to see whether or not p will resume the bearish move lower to the 3800 zone upon failure to penetrate said RSST levels:
RSST confluence: 4158, 4181, 4217, 4234-4240, 4295-4321, 4350, 4373, 4424-4431, 4459-4469, 4570
now, i am not saying the bull trend will resume, although we do have a nice flag/descending triangle on the monthly chart, so who knows, it might well do so. in case the bull trend is over, i'd say this bounce from 4060 will be more like a dead cat bounce than a saturn 5 rocketing into deep space. if so, then sell the bounce or rally (whatever you want to call the next move up as shorts unwind) at any of the above levels.
but say we hit one of the fib levels on the way up... how do we know if we should sell at that level since p could very well keep moving up to another fib level located above?
this is were the Bollinger Bands and Williams's (or diNapoli's) Fractal indicators come in handy. use these to determine when the swing is about to occur on H1 and/or H4.
if conditions listed above are invalidated by mr market, then you're on your own! no, just kidding. personally, my T/P will be around the 1.272 fib extension from the top of the sell butterfly on the daily chart around 3920.
also considering how well the previous sell gartley 222s (on daily chart) have worked so far, and the current sell-off underway from the latest sell gartley 222 top at 4546, regardless of whether or not the above conditions hold true, my instincts tell me to sell into any rally and target that damn 1.272 extension at 3920.
as the romans used to say: alea jacta est!
p.s. 1: hope you find this useful. also all numbers are not 100% exact, that is, allow for +/- 10 pips of wiggle room around levels i mention.
p.s. 2: feel free to correct, enlighten, or otherwise lambast me. it's all in good fun. at least it is for me.
p = price
DATE: 9.5 - 9.6
assumptions: gold will hit USD 2K, USD will weaken, Germany's constitutional court will rule in favor of EU rescue measures
as long as the following conditions remain true on the following time frames:
Monthly: p >= 50 SMA and p>= fib 23.6 [18839-47825]
Daily: p >= fib 61.8 [3838-4517]
H1+H4: p >= M S1 (monthly support 1) @ 4097, DPO (detrended price oscillator) + %R all unwind from oversold and MACDOsma shows significant momentum impulse to the upside
potential T/P are the various fib retracements (your guess is as good as mine) from:
[43739-40603]
[4463-40603]
[45287-40603]
HOWEVER: i'd watch the following resistance (RSST) confluence zones to see whether or not p will resume the bearish move lower to the 3800 zone upon failure to penetrate said RSST levels:
RSST confluence: 4158, 4181, 4217, 4234-4240, 4295-4321, 4350, 4373, 4424-4431, 4459-4469, 4570
now, i am not saying the bull trend will resume, although we do have a nice flag/descending triangle on the monthly chart, so who knows, it might well do so. in case the bull trend is over, i'd say this bounce from 4060 will be more like a dead cat bounce than a saturn 5 rocketing into deep space. if so, then sell the bounce or rally (whatever you want to call the next move up as shorts unwind) at any of the above levels.
but say we hit one of the fib levels on the way up... how do we know if we should sell at that level since p could very well keep moving up to another fib level located above?
this is were the Bollinger Bands and Williams's (or diNapoli's) Fractal indicators come in handy. use these to determine when the swing is about to occur on H1 and/or H4.
if conditions listed above are invalidated by mr market, then you're on your own! no, just kidding. personally, my T/P will be around the 1.272 fib extension from the top of the sell butterfly on the daily chart around 3920.
also considering how well the previous sell gartley 222s (on daily chart) have worked so far, and the current sell-off underway from the latest sell gartley 222 top at 4546, regardless of whether or not the above conditions hold true, my instincts tell me to sell into any rally and target that damn 1.272 extension at 3920.
as the romans used to say: alea jacta est!
p.s. 1: hope you find this useful. also all numbers are not 100% exact, that is, allow for +/- 10 pips of wiggle room around levels i mention.
p.s. 2: feel free to correct, enlighten, or otherwise lambast me. it's all in good fun. at least it is for me.
