FOREX PRO WEEKLY, March 19-23, 2018

[Stag]

Stag your analysis is welcome and needed. Personally I am on the sidelines because I did not trust my plan...

Stick to your plan even if it is revised. Regarding the Euro, we are in a phase when anything can happen so being on the sidelines is a good position. Today I had two longs so far and for me 1.24 is as accessible as 1.22 - consider the unexpected.

 

[Stag]

Guys, I had to come back for a second to signal that if 1.2359 breaks, the market can remain bullish and I expect higher prices towards 1.25.

 

[Venelin]

Hi guys, here it is my expectation about Euro:

This butterfly sell looks harmonic and if that is the case it would start from arround end of month.
It could be a butterfly buy from 1.2050-1.2070, but I do not like the lack of harmony in it:

Good luck

 

[Venelin]

So, it seems that everybody agrees on Stag analysis here...
So, may be, if Stag has no objections, we ask him to place analysis at least 1-2 times per month.

If Stag could post 1-2 times per Week(or more as per his wish), would be awesome! What do you say Stag

 

[Rabul]

FED is more hawkish than 3 months before. 4 rate hikes this year still in play, but not confirmed. All depends on regular economic data.

I would like to see EUR down to 1.195 before it attempts break above 1.27.
Generally my long term scenario is pullback by 600 pips from top. If the top is at 1.2550 then my goal is at 1.1950, if top will be higher I will adjust my buy scenario accordingly. If prezent top is breached up to 1.2650, then EUR should drop to 1.2050. This conclusion is based on study of EUR behaviour when it last started bullish long term action several years ago.

 

[Sive Morten]

This conclusion is based on study of EUR behaviour when it last started bullish long term action several years ago.

Rabul, it is interesting position, especially because you're talking about downside action after strong rally recently.
Could you please share with core idea of your EUR analysis? Why 600 pips?

 

[Rabul]

My assumptions are simple. Look at price action in 2002 - 2003. Price tried to break 1.0000 and was fluctuating between 1.02 and 0.96. That's it, as simple as that. But finally it breached 1.00 - 1.02 after about 5-6 months. So I expect similar time frame and expect price to fall at some point 600 pips from recorded top, if it's new top or present at 1.2550.

 

[Sive Morten]

Good morning,

So, recent Fed statement was treated as dovish, because there was a hint that three rate changes are more probable than four. As a result, EUR and other USD related assets have shown upside action. Situation is looking better on EUR, but this is not final point yet.

In fact, EUR shows contraction price behavior as it forms lower tops and higher bottoms. If you will use your imagination, you could recognize here a kind of diamond pattern. Thus, to cancel all doubts, EUR needs to show upside breakout, reversal swing, prefferably above "C" point.

Besides, today we could get bearish grabber. If it will be formed - it will promise nothing good to bulls.
That's being said, although upside action was nice, but final bullish confirmations still stand ahead:

On 4-hour chart, "222" Buy has started pretty nice right from our OP target. Now we could recognize megaphone type of action. So, here again - all things stand around upside breakout as trend line as megaphone pattern...

Still, it is not forbidden to take long position, just control that upside breakout will happen later. At the same time, you need to be very careful with choosing an area where you could go long. Right now it seems that 1.23-1.2320 area could be suitable for this purpose, but be sure that you have some patterns that confirm this. First is - daily AB=CD or other extension. Second - some bullish reversal pattern on 5-min chart. Without these issues it will be rather risky game.

 

[Lolly Tripathy]

Hi guys, here it is my expectation about Euro:View attachment 36860
This butterfly sell looks harmonic and if that is the case it would start from arround end of month.
It could be a butterfly buy from 1.2050-1.2070, but I do not like the lack of harmony in it:View attachment 36861
Good luck

Same here

 

[Stag]

Guys, I had to come back for a second to signal that if 1.2359 breaks, the market can remain bullish and I expect higher prices towards 1.25.

Guys, it's not so easy to get out of here As a reminder, I show you the updated scenario, just to make my view clear. The only change is that the fall from 1.2412 was an ending diagonal.

The important thing is what I said earlier: it is a terminating pattern and shows up in the fifth wave position of impulse waves and in the wave “C” position of "ABC" corrections. Once an ending diagonal terminates, a sharp and swift reversal starts that goes above to the level where it began and typically much further - and I think that's what we see now unfolding. For confirmation we need to see prices above 1.2412 and higher within a few days.

This scenario is valid as long as 1.2239 holds as support.

I must be really off now.