Fundamental and technical analysis from Fort Financial Services

[Mark Miller (FortFS)]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

23.07.2015

Fundamental analysis

There were two unexpected events in the currency market. Firstly, the pair euro/dollar suddenly showed its intent to recover from the lows and almost immediately gained 100 points. Secondly, the pair dollar/yen steady increase came to an end and quotes also rose up by nearly 100 points - but downwards. The reason is simple: the dollar bulls have decided to take profit, the last week its size was substantial as the US dollar took completely its advantage, expecting the Fed rate hike. It is important to note that it happened amid the practically empty macroeconomic calendar.

The pair EUR/USD had increased amid the short positions profit taking as well as the oil quotations moderate growth. However by the end of the day the pair fell again.

During the day the pair GBP/USD was trading at the levels of 1.5550 - 1.5670 amid the pair EUR/GBP quotations growth which are holding back the British pound.

The pair USD/JPY had increased amid the carry trade transactions closure which contributed to the Japanese yen demand as a funding currency. Nevertheless, the pair increased by the end of the day.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The euro sentiments were determined by the debt market dynamics which is now clearly on the "bears" side. There were the US secondary market housing sales published. The sales increased to 5,49 millions.

The short-term price consolidation at the support level of 1.0790 was followed by the upward rebound. The rebound was at the low volumes, but it allowed buyers to breakthrough and consolidate above the resistance level of 1.0925. The level of 1.0925 breakthrough was short-term and the pair fell below this level.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0790, the next one is 1.0670. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.1050.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We may expect towards the growth to 1.0925 and 1.1050 further on we expect a fall.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

There was the Bank of England monetary policy last meeting minutes published which traditionally causes the volatility spike. The monetary regulator meeting took place on Thursday, 9 July and this time we received quite contradictory macroeconomic statistics.

It is noted the average wage increase in the United Kingdom which is a positive factor for the inflation. The payments balance release for the first quarter points out to the strong negative effect of the British pound revaluation.

The downward rebound, formed after the support level of 1.5550 testing looks quite weak. Volumes are in reduced zone and the pair did not exit the range formed between the levels of 1.5550 and 1.5670.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5460. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5775.

There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We expect the 1.5670 line break that will open the way for the buyers to 1.5775.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The quotations decrease which we have seen is a correctional movement – traders partly took profits on the long positions after the long upward trend. It should also be noted that this correction does not look like the US dollar massive sales. The correction was also observed in the US stock market. By the end of the day the pair increased.

The price is finding the first support at 123.50, the next one is at 122.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 124.30, the next one is at 125.50.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates above the resistance level of 124.30, it may continue the upward trend in the short term. The potential target is 125.50.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Mark Miller (FortFS)]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

24.07.2015

Fundamental analysis

The dollar index basket (USDX) had increased. The pair EUR/USD had decreased amid the oil market "bearish" trend. Nevertheless, the pair increased by the end of the day.

On the contrary, the pair GBP/USD had grown amid the Bank of England moderately positive minutes where the GDP second and the third quarter growth estimates were increased. The US Energy Department reported the crude oil inventories increase which would contribute to the quotations and will have a negative impact on the British pound as the UK is an exporter of hydrocarbons to the European Union. It should also be noted that there is a negative trend throughout the commodity market that will support the US currency. The pair fell by the end of the trades.

The day the pair USD/JPY had increased amid the June US secondary market housing sales positive release. The sales rose up by 3.2% in June compared to the previous month and it occurred despite the mortgage interest rates growth. American consumers feel confident enough, just willing to buy housing in spite of the credit growth. Then the pair consolidated.

According to the US Labor Department the initial jobless claims number became less than 26 thousand having fallen to 255 thousand. It is the minimum since 1973.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

We should pay attention to the commodity and bond market dynamics amid the important macroeconomic statistics lack. The US Energy Department release pointed out to the crude oil reserves growth which puts pressure on the "black gold" quotations. Against this background we expect the Brent quotations decrease which will have a positive impact on the US currency as the oil price is denominated in dollars.

The euro two-day growth against the US dollar was stopped at the resistance level of 1.0925. The level testing was amid the low volumes and was followed by the breakthrough upwards.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0925, the next one is 1.0790. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150.

The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

The pair is going upwards. The bulls’ targets are the levels of 1.1050 and 1.1150.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The MPC last meeting minutes publication confirmed the fundamental mixed background. On the one hand, the wage growth is a positive factor for the medium-term inflation expectations. On the other hand, it was noted that the pound growth can negatively affect the British economy.

The National Statistics Office published the UK retail sales report for June. The retail sales were 0.2% m / m + 4.0% y / y.

Buyers were unable to reach the resistance level of 1.5670. the pair decreased and broke through the support level of 1.5550.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5460, the next one is 1.5390. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5670.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement and form a “Dead Cross”.

The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The sellers need to break below 1.5460 for a steady decrease. The way to the mark 1.5390 will be opened after this breakthrough.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

Japan has published the June trade balance report. At its last monetary policy meeting the Bank of Japan pointed out to the weak economic growth in the second quarter as a whole and the exports decline in particular. The same trend confirms the Central Bank of Japan foreign exchange reserves reduction which has traditionally been strong in periods of the trade deficit increase.

Having rebounded from the resistance level of 124.30, the price fell and is consolidating.

The price is finding the first support at 123.50, the next one is at 122.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 124.30, the next one is at 125.50.

There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is on the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

After the support level of 123.50 breakthrough down the way to the support 122.40 will be opened.

Franc (CHF)

General overview

The Swiss franc strengthened slightly against the US currency amid the dollar decline.

The absence of important macroeconomic statistics has highlighted speculations on the interest rate differentials.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9540, the next one is at 0.9370. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9750, the next one is at 0.9850.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We recommend going short with the first target - 0.9540. When the price consolidates below the first target it may go to the level 0.9370.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Mark Miller (FortFS)]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

27.07.2015

Fundamental analysis

At the end of the last week the pair EUR/USD increased amid the pair EUR/GBP growth and amid the UK weak macroeconomic statistics. Then the pair consolidated.

By the end of the day the pair GBP / USD had decreased after the June UK retail sales publication - the index decreased by 0.2%. The pound fell after the retail sales weak data output. The data were disappointing. They negated the British retailers' consortium and the British Industry Confederation earlier studies. In general the news is not good, but the consumer spending trend is still growing. In fact, the retail sales showed an increase by 4% y/y while consumer confidence is at the 15-year high, real wages rose up by almost 3% y/y while the employment continues to rise. So consumer spending is not in danger. On the contrary, the United States pleased traders with the positive jobless claims. However the pair pound/dollar slightly corrected.

During the day the pair USD/JPY was trading in a flat amid the world leading stock markets sales which hindered the US dollar's growth. Nevertheless the pair decreased by the end of the day.

After the US jobless claims publication we observed the commodity market sales which is also a positive factor for the US currency as the raw materials cost is denominated in dollars.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

Markit Economics has presented the France and the Germany manufacturing sectors business climate data. The France industrial sector business climate will amount 49.6 in July, the Germany industrial sector business climate will amount 51.5.

There is the production orders growth in both economies amid the euro devaluation which increases the products competiveness abroad.

The euro is still correcting relative to the US dollar, breaking through the resistance level of 1.0925 upwards. The pair is consolidating above this level.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0925, the next one is 1.0790. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150.

The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.1050. The next targets are the levels of 1.1150, 1.1260.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The UK retail sales release indicates that the British prefer to save more than spend. Despite the strong population revenue growth – the June sales decreased by 0.2%. The consumer demand reduction is a negative factor for the state economic growth.

The resistance level of 1.5670 testing was followed by the active prices decrease by 160 points. The support level of 1.5550 was broken through which now acts as a resistance.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5460, the next one is 1.5390. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5670.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the resistance 1.5550, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential targets are 1.5460 and 1.5390.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

Last week Japan disappointed investors with the June trade balance weak data while the United States is pleased with the secondary market housing sales positive report as well as the jobless claims reduction.

The downward correction which began from the resistance level of 124.30 stopped at the support level of 123.50. The price came up to the level amid the low volumes and went into the prolonged consolidation and a slight decrease.

The price is finding the first support at 123.50, the next one is at 122.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 124.30, the next one is at 125.50.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The sellers need to break below 123.50 for a steady downward trend. The way to the mark 122.40 will be opened after this breakthrough.

Franc (CHF)

General overview

Last week US jobless claims release was quite encouraging. The primary and the secondary jobless claims reduction points out to the labor market positive trends in particular and in the economy in general. Against this background, the Forex market will re-live expectations about the federal funds rate growth in September which will support the US dollar.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9540, the next one is at 0.9370. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9750, the next one is at 0.9850.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

We recommend going long with the first target - 0.9750. When the price consolidates above the first target it may go to the level 0.9850.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Mark Miller (FortFS)]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

28.07.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar was not able to strengthen its position against its main competitors - the dollar index basket (USDX) closed the trading day at the mark of 96.56.

The pair EUR/USD had decreased despite the France and Germany PMI manufacturing and production sector negative macroeconomic statistics. Nevertheless the pair grew by the end of the day.

The pair GBP/USD was trading within the flat amid the UK bond yields decrease in relation to their US and Germany counterparts as well as the US new home sales weak data. However the pair increased on the yesterday’s trades.

The pair USD/JPY was trading in a flat amid the lack of demand for the "risky assets" as well as the US negative macroeconomic statistics. Nevertheless, the pair increased yesterday.

The US new housing market sales publication did not meet our forecasts: the transactions number amounted to only 482 thousand in June against the expected 546 million and 517 million in May. It has played the role of counterweight within the pair EUR/USD that put pressure not on the euro, but on the US dollar as well.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The last week euro zone and the United States economic data showed a clear divergence: the Eurozone consumer confidence index and the composite PMI weak releases amid the US real estate positive data and jobless claims reduction. Thus, there will be a steady demand for the US dollar in the short term.

The euro is recovering its positions against the US dollar. Its corrective growth is on the low volumes and has a target to test the resistance level of 1.1150.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1050, the next one is 1.0925. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1150, the next one is at 1.1260.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 1.1150 may lead to a price rebound down. The potential rebound targets are the support levels of 1.1050, 1.0925, 1.0790.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The downtrend changed to the upward movement. There are still active sales on the commodity market which is a positive factor for the US currency as the raw material assets cost is denominated in dollars. It should also be noted that the British currency traditionally negatively reacts to the oil bearish trend. Last week the Brent crude finished at the mark of $ 55 / barrel and the next stop will, possibly, be near the 53rd figure.

There was the resistance level of 1.5550 breakthrough upwards and trades closed at the level of 1.5572.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5460. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5775.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

After the trend line 101.85 breakthrough down the way to the support 101.50 will be opened. The resistance level of 1.5670 test is more likely to lead to the rebound downwards.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

We noted the "bearish" sentiments prevalence. The lack of demand for the "risky assets" contributed to the carry trade transactions closure that will cause demand for the Japanese yen. The negative trend is confirmed by the debt market: the US and Japan 10-year bond yields are reducing which is clearly at the "bears" hands.

There was the support level of 123.50 breakthrough which was followed by the very low volumes.

The price is finding the first support at 122.40, the next one is at 121.60. The price is finding the first resistance at 123.50, the next one is at 124.30.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We may expect the growth towards 123.50 further on we expect a fall to 122.40.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Mark Miller (FortFS)]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

29.07.2015

Fundamental analysis

By the end of the day the pair EUR / USD had increased amid the German 10-year bond yields relative to its US and the UK counterparts. The Germany data served as a powerful driver for the euro. The IFO Institute business sentiment index registered growth up to 108 points in July, exceeding expectations at the level of 107.5 and the June index around the level of 107.4. It was enough for the pair EUR/USD to get a powerful impulse and to start recovery from the recent lows.

By the end of the day the pair GBP / USD had strengthened despite the US durable goods orders positive macroeconomic statistics for June.

During the day the pair USD / JPY some growth amid the world stock markets sales which caused the carry trade transactions closure.

In June the US durable goods orders rose up by 3.4%, the index excluding transportation also rose up - by 0.8%. However, the main source of concern was the latest stock market crash in China where the Shanghai Composite has lost more than 8%. Traders believe that the China stock markets volatility can delay the US Federal Reserve possible rate hike as the situation is an additional threat to stability.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The main pair dynamics is determined by three factors: the bond market sentiments, the commodity market trend and the pair EUR / GBP dynamics.

There was the German 10-year bond yields growth on the debt market in relation to its US and UK competitors which supports some demand for the euro.

The Federal Reserve interest rate decision may affect the pair dynamics which will be published on Wednesday evening.

The upward correction within the pair euro / dollar consolidated its positions, breaking through on its way resistance at the level of 1.1050.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1050, the next one is 1.0925. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1150, the next one is at 1.1260.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The growth targets are 1.1150, 1.1260.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

Yesterday the main event was the second quarter UK GDP publication. The Bank of England pointed to an economic growth by 0.7% in its monetary policy last minutes. These data came out at the forecast level of 0.7% q / q and 2.6% y / y

The Federal Reserve interest rate decision can affect the pair dynamics which will be published on Wednesday evening.

The resistance level of 1.5550 could not stop buyers. The level breakthrough was on the low volumes and opened the way to the level of 1.5460 and 1.5390 testing.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5460. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5775.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We expect a rebound. The levels of 1.5460, 1.5390 are the rebound targets.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

There was the investors' risk avoidance in financial markets (the world leading stock markets sales) which is a "bearish" factor for this pair. Investors closed the carry trade transactions which contributed to the Japanese yen demand as a funding currency.

The Federal Reserve interest rate decision may affect the pair’s dynamics which will be published on Wednesday evening.

Before reaching the support level of 122.80, the downward trend reversed in the short-term correction. The resulting correction is on the low volumes and is aimed at the resistance level of 123.50.

The price is finding the first support at 122.40, the next one is at 121.60. The price is finding the first resistance at 123.50, the next one is at 124.30.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

After testing 123.50 we expect a consolidation. Then the price may go down. The downward targets are 122.40, 121.60.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Mark Miller (FortFS)]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

30.07.2015

Fundamental analysis

By the end of the day the pair EUR / USD had increased amid the long positions profit taking before ECB meeting. After another Chinese stock market collapse traders spread the rumors that the American central bank would not still raise interest rates. After the meeting results it was expected to hear something about new external risks to the US economy which would lead to the immediate dollar sales and the pair EUR / USD growth.

As a result the last ECB meeting confirmed its plans to change the rates this year that supported the dollar.

The pair GBP / USD had increased as well after the UK second quarter GDP publication. The final index is above the level of 0.7%.

During the day the pair USD / JPY was growing. On the one hand, "bulls" were supported by the “risky assets" demand. On the other hand, the Conference Board consumer confidence weak data put pressure on the US currency.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

There was the debt and commodity markets stabilization after a high volatility. In this regard, it was expected that the pair euro / dollar would be trading a flat up to the FOMC meeting outcome announcement.

It was expected that the US Wednesday Federal Reserve meeting results would be a little different from the D. Yellen two week ago rhetoric. Then the FED chairman announced the monetary authorities intention to tighten monetary policy at any meeting this year. The yesterday’s ECB meeting supported the dollar as the committee confirmed its intentions to change the rates this year.

Having broken through the level of 1.1050 downwards the price.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0925, the next one is 1.0790. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The MACD is declining.

Trading recommendations

We believe in pair’s decrease. The first target is the level of 1.0925. The next one is 1.0790.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The GBP / USD fundamental background is still mixed. Investors 'attention is directed to the June UK mortgage lending publication which was positive, exceeding analysts' forecasts. Above all, the market was waiting for the US Federal Reserve meeting results. It was expected to hear the same benchmarks that were announced by D. Yellen in Congress two weeks ago.

The trade is below the key resistance level of 1.5670. The price consolidation below the mark can lead to the short-term decline.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5460. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5775.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The indicator is growing.

Trading recommendations

If the price remains below 1.5670 the downward movement will be continued. The targets are 1.5550 and 1.5460. Shall the price break the level upwards and we will see the growth continuation.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

Japan has published the June retail trade release. The wage level is the most important indicator for determining the retail sector demand dynamics. It was expected the data within the forecasted medians, but the results exceeded forecasts by 0.9% instead of the projected 0.5% after the previous indicator by 3.0%.

The market was waiting for the US Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting results. Changes in rhetoric were not expected.


The lack of buyers’ support can lead to the strong price rebound from the resistance level of 123.50.

The price is finding the first support at 123.50, the next one is at 122.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 124.30, the next one is at 125.50.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The MACD is growing.

Trading recommendations

We expect the growth. The growth targets are 124.30 and 124.70.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Mark Miller (FortFS)]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

31.07.2015

Fundamental analysis

Yesterday the US dollar was able to strengthen its position against its main competitors - the dollar index basket (USDX) closed the trading day at the mark of 97.10. On Wednesday late in the evening there were announced the US Federal Reserve meeting results.

Monetary authorities have once again confirmed the labor market progress and they also noted the real estate market growth. It was also pointed out that inflation expectations have not changed compared to the last assessment and it is necessary to wait for more positive macroeconomic data to start the monetary policy tightening phase. At first it upset the market, but ultimately the US currency was set to buy again and the US dollar has strengthened relative to all of its main competitors.

The FOMC also pointed out that the federal funds rate first increase can happen in September. Against this background, the pair EUR / USD had decreased by 0.51% by the end of the day, the pair GBP / USD had declined by 0.03% and the pair USD / JPY had increased by 0.30%.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The dollar strengthened against the euro after the US Federal Reserve meeting results publication.

The jobless claims have unexpectedly grown to the seasonally adjusted 9,000 in Germany in July, it was reported a decline by 1000 in June, economists expected the unemployment decline by 5000 in July, and however, the labor market remains one of the strongest in the euro area. There was the second quarter US GDP report published. Investors focused their attention to the data that indicate the US jobless claims number.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0925, the next one is 1.0790. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150.

There is a weak sell signal. The price is below the Cloud and it is below the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. If the price get below the Cloud we may get a sell signal.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The MACD is declining.

Trading recommendations

We believe in pair’s decrease. The first target 1.0925 is reached. The next one is 1.0790.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

Commodity market reacted with the quotations decrease on the US Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting results which is a negative factor for the British currency.

Investors focused their attention on the US GDP publication for the second quarter. The industrial production index which best determines this year business cycle dynamics in the second quarter showed a moderate growth. Investors' attention is directed to the initial jobless claims weekly report.

The resistance level of 1.5670 false breakthrough was followed by the prices active drop.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5460. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5775.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The indicator is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

If the price remains below 1.5670 the downward movement will be continued. The targets are 1.5550 and 1.5460.

Yen (JPY)

The US Federal Reserve meeting results supported the dollar as a result it has strengthened against the yen.

There was published the June industrial production data, we expected a weak report which would put pressure on the Japanese yen. However, the data came out better than expected 0.8% against 0.3% earlier it was-2.1%. Traders focused their attention on the second quarter US GDP release. The US initial jobless claims report is also considered by investors.

The strong resistance level of 123.50 breakthrough opened the way for another resistance level of 124.30 testing.

The price is finding the first support at 123.50, the next one is at 122.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 124.30, the next one is at 125.50.

The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen are directed upwards.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The MACD is growing.

Trading recommendations

We support the growth plan. The growth targets are 124.30 and 124.70.

Franc (CHF)

The dollar consolidated its position after the FOMC minutes publication where it was noted that the rate would be increased after the labor market continued growth. Following the meeting, the interest rate has remained within the 0.0% -0.25%.

Credit Suisse says that the Swiss National Bank losses could reach 50 billion francs in the first half of the year because of the exchange rate, gold and government bonds changes. According to the data publication, the Swiss KOF leading economic indicators rose up to 99.8 this month from 89.8 in June whose indicator was revised up from 89.7. Analysts had expected the index growth by 90.3 in July.

Buyers managed to strengthen the strong resistance level of 0.9650.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9650, the next one is at 0.9540. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9760, the next one is at 0.9850.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The MACD is growing.

Trading recommendations

We expect the growth. The pair may rebound downwards to the level of 0.9650. After that the growth to 0.9850 will be continued.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Mark Miller (FortFS)]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

03.08.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US currency continued its winning streak - the dollar index basket (USDX) closed the trading day at the mark of 97.60.

The pair EUR / USD had decreased amid the Germany and Spain inflation slowdown last Friday.

During the day the pair GBP / USD was trading in a flat amid the UK bond yields moderate growth relative to its US and Germany counterparts.

The pair USD / JPY increased amid the "risky assets" demand at the end of the last week.

The last week US second quarter GDP data came out slightly worse than the consensus forecast, but we can consider it moderately positive. The personal consumption expenditures main index for the second quarter increased by 1.8% which exceeded the traders’ expectations. The Fed uses namely this indicator as the consumer activity benchmark.

In general, the US dollar continues to behave as if the Fed’s rate hike is actually a solution. We should remind that the Fed noted the labor market improvement, but it was not more aggressive than expected when it came to the Fed's rate hike timing.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

We expect bearish sentiment prevalence within the pair EUR/USD. The Germany retail sales have decreased by 2.3% from May till June, corrected for the inflation and seasonal variations, still they increased by 5.1% compared to the previous year. Economists had forecasted that the monthly value would remain within the flat. However, the retail sales positive trend remains the same, private consumption will continue to support the European largest economy growth. It is expected that the German economy will expand by 1.8% this year and 2.0% in 2016.

A short-term correction was formed. The potential correction target is the resistance level of 1.1050.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0925, the next one is 1.0790. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150.

There is a weak sell signal. The price is in the Cloud and it is below the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. If the price gets below the Cloud we get a strong sell signal.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The MACD is declining.

Trading recommendations

We expect the decrease will be continued. The first target is 1.0925. The second one is 1.0790.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

During the day the British pound can show the quotations moderate growth. There was the UK securities bond market increase in relation to its US and Germany competitors. The UK and Germany bond yields once again exceeded the level of 131 bp which will put pressure on the pair EUR / GBP and support demand for the British currency against the US dollar.

According to the economic calendar, the UK Gfk consumer confidence index has fallen: 4 instead of 7, although it was expected 5.

For a long time the British pound has been trading below the strong resistance level of 1.5670. All attempts to break through above the level were followed by the prices rebound downwards.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5460. The first resistance is at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5775.

The price is just above the Cloud. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The indicator is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

If the price remains below 1.5670 the downward movement will be continued. The targets are 1.5550 and 1.5460.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The dollar was stable against the yen. Earlier the Japan data showed that household spending declined by 3.0% in June, confounding the projected decline by 0.5%, after the previous month increase by 2.4%. The data also showed that the Tokyo consumer price index rose up by 0.2% this month in line with the market expectations.

The maximum of 124.47 was updated, but bulls failed to consolidate above the level of 124.30 – there was a false breakthrough which led to the downward rebound.

The price is finding the first support at 123.50, the next one is at 122.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 124.30, the next one is at 125.50.

The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen are directed upwards.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The MACD is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The growth targets are 124.30 and 124.70. Shall the price fall it will go to 122.40.

Franc (CHF)

General overview

The market is consolidating. Some optimism inspires more or less clear picture in the United States. The Fed noted the labor market improvement, but it was not more aggressive than expected when it came to the Fed's rate hike timing. The US second quarter GDP data showed an increase by 2.3% q / q vs. 2.5% q / q. The separate report showed that initial jobless claims amounted to 267k vs. 270k.

The pair USD / CHF tested the level of 0.9700 / 10, then the correction has started and currently the pair is under pressure.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9650, the next one is at 0.9540. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9760, the next one is at 0.9850.

The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The MACD is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We expect the growth. The pair may rebound downwards to the level of 0.9650. After that the growth to 0.9850 will be continued.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Mark Miller (FortFS)]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

04.08.2015

Fundamental analysis

This week the US dollar is being traded without significant changes in anticipation of important macroeconomic statistics. Investors are waiting for the US labor market Friday's data. The labor costs record low index in the second quarter raised questions about the Fed key rate hike in September. Thus, the US labor costs index showed the lowest growth rate in the second quarter at the level of 0.2% well below the forecast by 0.7%.

Previously, the dollar was supported by the Federal Reserve two-day meeting. The Fed noted the labor market improvement, but it was not more aggressive than it was expected when it came to the Fed rate hike timing.

In addition, we expect the euro zone important data. Economists expect the official data that will be published next will point to the Germany manufacturing industry growth production, but its slowdown in France and Italy that shows divergence in the euro area economy. However the data in Italy came out showed a growth to 55,3 from 54,1. Nevertheless the pair euro/dollar closed the trades with a decreased.

The pair GBP/USD also decreased. Earlier the pound traded without significant changes in BoE's meeting anticipation on the coming Thursday. At the same time for the first time the central bank will announce the interest rates decision and will publish its meeting minutes and the UK economy new forecasts.

The yen declined against the dollar amid the general demand for the US currency and the interest decrease in safe assets because of the stock indices strengthening.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The euro was supported by the euro zone consumer inflation strong indicators. Thus, the EU consumer prices rose up by 0.2% y/y in July while the core index showed an increase by 0.9% y/y against the expected 0.2% and 0.8%, respectively. In addition, the unemployment rate remained at the mark of 11.1%.

Buyers tried to continue the upward trend, but they were stopped by the resistance near 1.1050. The level testing was followed by an active rebound downwards on the increased volume. The rebound from the level of 1.1050 has allowed customers to consolidate below this level.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0925, the next one is 1.0790. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150.

There is a confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 1.0925 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 1.0790, 1.0670.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The data publication has shown that approved applications for mortgage and consumer loans totaled 66.58K and £ 1.22 billion respectively.

The course has received previous support after the UK economy growth strong preliminary estimates. The second quarter data supported the trend set in the first quarter. So the UK economy showed a growth by 2.6% y/y and 0.7% q/q vs. 2.9% and 0.4% respectively in the previous quarter.

The resistance level of 1.5670 was tested for its strength last week. The false level testing was followed by the rebounds downwards. At the beginning of this level the pair decreased.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5460. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5775.

There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 1.5550 may lead to a price rebound upwards. The potential rebound target is the resistance level of 1.5670.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The statistics in Japan showed that the retail sales have fallen for the third time this year -by 0.8% in June after the January and March decline. Analysts had forecasted decrease on average by 0.9%. The consumer spending weakness increases the risks for the Japanese economy, the manufacturing sector is experiencing hard times, taking into the exports weakness.

The upward trend within the Japanese yen has stopped for a short time at the resistance level of 124.30.

The price is finding the first support at 123.50, the next one is at 122.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 124.30, the next one is at 125.50.

There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 124.30, 125.50.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Mark Miller (FortFS)]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

05.08.2015

Fundamental analysis

The beginning of the current week was relatively calm in the currency market. The dollar continued to strengthen against the major competitors, continuing to enjoy the support by the Fed rate hike expectations. However the dollar slightly weakened on the yesterday’s trades.

Earlier the pair EUR/USD once again came under pressure, at the same time there was not any problem with the local growth drivers. The July PMI manufacturing activity index in the euro zone countries was mostly positive while the region index exceeded expectations and amounted to 52.4 against the expected 52.2. But it was not enough to strengthen the single European currency. Nevertheless the pair slightly increased on Tuesday.

Earlier the dollar got a new reason to grow. The personal spending rose in June more than expected, reflecting a growth by 0.4% against the forecast at the level of 0.3%. At a time when traders are almost convinced in the Fed rates raising until the end of the year, it was enough to trigger a purchases wave.

The pair pound/dollar closed the trades with a growth and the pair dollar/yen was trading in a flat.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The euro fell amid the dollar growth in anticipation of the Friday US government employment publication. Investors expect the data to be strong and it may lead to move the forecasts, relating the interest rates growth by the Federal Reserve at an earlier date. However the pair slightly grew on Tuesday’s trades.

The trade within the pair euro/dollar looks lowly volatile. The price reduction is on the lower volumes and reached the strong support level of 1.0925. Then the pair rebounded upwards.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0925, the next one is 1.0790. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150.

There is a confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.0925 and 1.0790.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The Bank of England will announce its key interest rate decision on Thursday, the 6th of August and at the same time it will publish the meeting minute. Undoubtedly, the regulator tendency to increase the key rate will put upward pressure on the pair GBP/USD.

We can observe the pound decline against the US dollar amid the weak volatility and low volumes reduction. The price decline was close the strong support level of 1.5550. Then the pair showed an upward rebound.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5460. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5775.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 1.5775.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The main driving force that influenced the dollar growth was the personal income and spending data which rose by 0.4% and 0.2% respectively while revenues have grown more than it was forecasted. The Americans incomes grow more than expenditures that indicates the consumption slowdown. This trend threatens the fact that inflation may remain low and investors wait for the Fed rate hikes. Nevertheless, investors regarded revenue growth as a signal for the consumption and inflation future growth.

The resistance level of 124.30 re-testing led to the upward trend reversal downwards then a consolidation was formed.

The price is finding the first support at 123.50, the next one is at 122.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 124.30, the next one is at 125.50.

There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 124.30 for a steady growth.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.