Mark Miller (FortFS)
FortFS Representative
- Messages
- 196
"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis
23.07.2015
Fundamental analysis
There were two unexpected events in the currency market. Firstly, the pair euro/dollar suddenly showed its intent to recover from the lows and almost immediately gained 100 points. Secondly, the pair dollar/yen steady increase came to an end and quotes also rose up by nearly 100 points - but downwards. The reason is simple: the dollar bulls have decided to take profit, the last week its size was substantial as the US dollar took completely its advantage, expecting the Fed rate hike. It is important to note that it happened amid the practically empty macroeconomic calendar.
The pair EUR/USD had increased amid the short positions profit taking as well as the oil quotations moderate growth. However by the end of the day the pair fell again.
During the day the pair GBP/USD was trading at the levels of 1.5550 - 1.5670 amid the pair EUR/GBP quotations growth which are holding back the British pound.
The pair USD/JPY had increased amid the carry trade transactions closure which contributed to the Japanese yen demand as a funding currency. Nevertheless, the pair increased by the end of the day.
Technical analysis
Euro (EUR)
General overview
The euro sentiments were determined by the debt market dynamics which is now clearly on the "bears" side. There were the US secondary market housing sales published. The sales increased to 5,49 millions.
The short-term price consolidation at the support level of 1.0790 was followed by the upward rebound. The rebound was at the low volumes, but it allowed buyers to breakthrough and consolidate above the resistance level of 1.0925. The level of 1.0925 breakthrough was short-term and the pair fell below this level.
The price is finding the first support at 1.0790, the next one is 1.0670. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.1050.
There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.
The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.
Trading recommendations
We may expect towards the growth to 1.0925 and 1.1050 further on we expect a fall.
Pound (GBP)
General overview
There was the Bank of England monetary policy last meeting minutes published which traditionally causes the volatility spike. The monetary regulator meeting took place on Thursday, 9 July and this time we received quite contradictory macroeconomic statistics.
It is noted the average wage increase in the United Kingdom which is a positive factor for the inflation. The payments balance release for the first quarter points out to the strong negative effect of the British pound revaluation.
The downward rebound, formed after the support level of 1.5550 testing looks quite weak. Volumes are in reduced zone and the pair did not exit the range formed between the levels of 1.5550 and 1.5670.
The price is finding the first support at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5460. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5775.
There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.
The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating.
Trading recommendations
We expect the 1.5670 line break that will open the way for the buyers to 1.5775.
Yen (JPY)
General overview
The quotations decrease which we have seen is a correctional movement – traders partly took profits on the long positions after the long upward trend. It should also be noted that this correction does not look like the US dollar massive sales. The correction was also observed in the US stock market. By the end of the day the pair increased.
The price is finding the first support at 123.50, the next one is at 122.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 124.30, the next one is at 125.50.
There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.
The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.
Trading recommendations
If the price fixates above the resistance level of 124.30, it may continue the upward trend in the short term. The potential target is 125.50.
*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.
23.07.2015
Fundamental analysis
There were two unexpected events in the currency market. Firstly, the pair euro/dollar suddenly showed its intent to recover from the lows and almost immediately gained 100 points. Secondly, the pair dollar/yen steady increase came to an end and quotes also rose up by nearly 100 points - but downwards. The reason is simple: the dollar bulls have decided to take profit, the last week its size was substantial as the US dollar took completely its advantage, expecting the Fed rate hike. It is important to note that it happened amid the practically empty macroeconomic calendar.
The pair EUR/USD had increased amid the short positions profit taking as well as the oil quotations moderate growth. However by the end of the day the pair fell again.
During the day the pair GBP/USD was trading at the levels of 1.5550 - 1.5670 amid the pair EUR/GBP quotations growth which are holding back the British pound.
The pair USD/JPY had increased amid the carry trade transactions closure which contributed to the Japanese yen demand as a funding currency. Nevertheless, the pair increased by the end of the day.
Technical analysis
Euro (EUR)
General overview
The euro sentiments were determined by the debt market dynamics which is now clearly on the "bears" side. There were the US secondary market housing sales published. The sales increased to 5,49 millions.
The short-term price consolidation at the support level of 1.0790 was followed by the upward rebound. The rebound was at the low volumes, but it allowed buyers to breakthrough and consolidate above the resistance level of 1.0925. The level of 1.0925 breakthrough was short-term and the pair fell below this level.
The price is finding the first support at 1.0790, the next one is 1.0670. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.1050.
There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.
The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.
Trading recommendations
We may expect towards the growth to 1.0925 and 1.1050 further on we expect a fall.
Pound (GBP)
General overview
There was the Bank of England monetary policy last meeting minutes published which traditionally causes the volatility spike. The monetary regulator meeting took place on Thursday, 9 July and this time we received quite contradictory macroeconomic statistics.
It is noted the average wage increase in the United Kingdom which is a positive factor for the inflation. The payments balance release for the first quarter points out to the strong negative effect of the British pound revaluation.
The downward rebound, formed after the support level of 1.5550 testing looks quite weak. Volumes are in reduced zone and the pair did not exit the range formed between the levels of 1.5550 and 1.5670.
The price is finding the first support at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5460. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5775.
There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.
The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating.
Trading recommendations
We expect the 1.5670 line break that will open the way for the buyers to 1.5775.
Yen (JPY)
General overview
The quotations decrease which we have seen is a correctional movement – traders partly took profits on the long positions after the long upward trend. It should also be noted that this correction does not look like the US dollar massive sales. The correction was also observed in the US stock market. By the end of the day the pair increased.
The price is finding the first support at 123.50, the next one is at 122.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 124.30, the next one is at 125.50.
There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.
The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.
Trading recommendations
If the price fixates above the resistance level of 124.30, it may continue the upward trend in the short term. The potential target is 125.50.
*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.