Mark Miller (FortFS)
FortFS Representative
- Messages
- 196
"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis
07.09.2015
Fundamental analysis
The US currency did not continue its winning streak - the dollar index basket (USDX) finished the trading day at the mark of 96.36. There was published the more important indicator showing the labor market current trends, namely the unemployment trend. It is Non-Farms. It was expected increase to 220,000 but the release showed the decrease to 173,000. Earlier the data was 245,000 from the revised 215,000.
The pair EUR/USD has decreased amid the ECB negative macroeconomic forecasts. During the day investors actively sold out the European currency amid the too soft Mario Draghi comments. However the trades on Friday closed with the pair’s growth.
The pair GBP/USD declined after the UK PMI service sector weak data: 55.6 vs 57.4 earlier. The forecasted data was 57.6. The UK service sector business activity was lower than the predicted values, but the US data turned out to be much stronger. However, the dollar growth has been restrained because of the claims number weak data.
Only in relation to the Japanese yen, the dollar failed to increase. The pair USD/JPY has also finished the trades in the negative region amid the Japanese and the US government bond yields decline. It looks like the yen returned to its status as the "reserve currency" and now those traders invest their capital into the yen who do not want increased risks.
Technical analysis
Euro (EUR)
General overview
The debt market dynamics also points to the bearish trend development: the German government bond yields decreased relative to their US and the UK counterparts which reduce investments attractiveness into the European assets.
All investors' attention is focused on the US labor market publication. The unemployment index decreased to 5.1% from 5.3%. The US issued the employment outside agricultural sector release. The data came lower than expected 220 thousand. The number of employees amounted to 173thousand.
The pair euro/dollar is consolidating after the sharp decline. However the pair showed the growth and tested the resistance level of 1.1150.
The price is finding the first support at 1.1050, the next one is 1.0925. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1150, the next one is at 1.1260.
There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.
The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.
Trading recommendations
We may expect the fall towards 1.1050 further on we expect a growth to 1.1260 where the pair rebound downwards.
Pound (GBP)
General overview
The UK/US services sector indicators differential is increasing in favor of the latter, making it vulnerable to the British currency. There were sales in the product market again that will provide support to the US currency as the raw materials cost is denominated in dollars.
The pair pound/dollar has completed the minimum reduction target. The support level of 1.5200 was broken downwards.
The price is finding the first support at 1.5100, the next one is 1.4975. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5200, the next one is 1.5300.
There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.
The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.
Trading recommendations
If the price fixates below the support 1.5100, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 1.4975.
Yen (JPY)
General overview
There was the moderately positive dynamics in the stock markets and in this regard, investors do not need to direct their capital into the "safe haven" yen. Nom Farms were published. The data showed the decrease to 173K vs earlier 245K. The economist forecasted 220K.
The dollar/yen pair failed to develop the growth wave and is trading the decline. The support level of 119.20 was broken downwards.
The price is finding the first support at 118.40, the next one is at 117.80. The price is finding the first resistance at 119.20, the next one is at 120.40.
There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.
The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.
Trading recommendations
After the support level of 118.40 breakthrough down the way to the support 117.80 will be opened.
Franc (CHF)
General overview
The August consumer price index fell by 1.4% in annual terms after a decline by 1.3 % the previous month. Last change was in line with economists' expectations. On the month basis consumer prices fell by 0.2 % in August after the 0.6 % decline in July. The month decline was also expected.
The pair dollar/franc continues to grow. A consolidation was formed at the resistance level of 0.9750.
The price is finding the first support at 0.9650, the next one is 0.9540. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9750, the next one is at 0.9850.
There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.
The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.
Trading recommendations
We advise to long with the first target - 0.9850. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9960.
*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.
07.09.2015
Fundamental analysis
The US currency did not continue its winning streak - the dollar index basket (USDX) finished the trading day at the mark of 96.36. There was published the more important indicator showing the labor market current trends, namely the unemployment trend. It is Non-Farms. It was expected increase to 220,000 but the release showed the decrease to 173,000. Earlier the data was 245,000 from the revised 215,000.
The pair EUR/USD has decreased amid the ECB negative macroeconomic forecasts. During the day investors actively sold out the European currency amid the too soft Mario Draghi comments. However the trades on Friday closed with the pair’s growth.
The pair GBP/USD declined after the UK PMI service sector weak data: 55.6 vs 57.4 earlier. The forecasted data was 57.6. The UK service sector business activity was lower than the predicted values, but the US data turned out to be much stronger. However, the dollar growth has been restrained because of the claims number weak data.
Only in relation to the Japanese yen, the dollar failed to increase. The pair USD/JPY has also finished the trades in the negative region amid the Japanese and the US government bond yields decline. It looks like the yen returned to its status as the "reserve currency" and now those traders invest their capital into the yen who do not want increased risks.
Technical analysis
Euro (EUR)
General overview
The debt market dynamics also points to the bearish trend development: the German government bond yields decreased relative to their US and the UK counterparts which reduce investments attractiveness into the European assets.
All investors' attention is focused on the US labor market publication. The unemployment index decreased to 5.1% from 5.3%. The US issued the employment outside agricultural sector release. The data came lower than expected 220 thousand. The number of employees amounted to 173thousand.
The pair euro/dollar is consolidating after the sharp decline. However the pair showed the growth and tested the resistance level of 1.1150.
The price is finding the first support at 1.1050, the next one is 1.0925. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1150, the next one is at 1.1260.
There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.
The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.
Trading recommendations
We may expect the fall towards 1.1050 further on we expect a growth to 1.1260 where the pair rebound downwards.
Pound (GBP)
General overview
The UK/US services sector indicators differential is increasing in favor of the latter, making it vulnerable to the British currency. There were sales in the product market again that will provide support to the US currency as the raw materials cost is denominated in dollars.
The pair pound/dollar has completed the minimum reduction target. The support level of 1.5200 was broken downwards.
The price is finding the first support at 1.5100, the next one is 1.4975. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5200, the next one is 1.5300.
There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.
The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.
Trading recommendations
If the price fixates below the support 1.5100, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 1.4975.
Yen (JPY)
General overview
There was the moderately positive dynamics in the stock markets and in this regard, investors do not need to direct their capital into the "safe haven" yen. Nom Farms were published. The data showed the decrease to 173K vs earlier 245K. The economist forecasted 220K.
The dollar/yen pair failed to develop the growth wave and is trading the decline. The support level of 119.20 was broken downwards.
The price is finding the first support at 118.40, the next one is at 117.80. The price is finding the first resistance at 119.20, the next one is at 120.40.
There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.
The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.
Trading recommendations
After the support level of 118.40 breakthrough down the way to the support 117.80 will be opened.
Franc (CHF)
General overview
The August consumer price index fell by 1.4% in annual terms after a decline by 1.3 % the previous month. Last change was in line with economists' expectations. On the month basis consumer prices fell by 0.2 % in August after the 0.6 % decline in July. The month decline was also expected.
The pair dollar/franc continues to grow. A consolidation was formed at the resistance level of 0.9750.
The price is finding the first support at 0.9650, the next one is 0.9540. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9750, the next one is at 0.9850.
There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.
The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.
Trading recommendations
We advise to long with the first target - 0.9850. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9960.
*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.