AUD/USD Daily Video, July 24, 2015

[Sive Morten]

Good morning,

today we again will work on perspective and take a look at AUD:





The technical portion of Sive's analysis owes a great deal to Joe DiNapoli's methods, and uses a number of Joe's proprietary indicators. Please note that Sive's analysis is his own view of the market and is not endorsed by Joe DiNapoli or any related companies.

 

[Dave Hanson]

Sive, glad to see that you moved away from the euro to the aussie. Like the rest of us, you were getting battered by the winds of change re the euro. Your original theory (down) was correct. Bottom line, too many things going against the euro. Its direction is down.

 

[Sive Morten]

Sive, glad to see that you moved away from the euro to the aussie. Like the rest of us, you were getting battered by the winds of change re the euro. Your original theory (down) was correct. Bottom line, too many things going against the euro. Its direction is down.

Hi Dave,
Actually I've not changed by opinion on downward contination in medium-term. In Last two sessions we just were trying to assess the perspective of temporal short-term upside bounce. It seems that EUR again - has hit it's favorite 50% and go.

 

[leo4fx]

I shorted the eurusd when price broke the bottom of the asian session closed it at the daily s1
looking to short it again soon.

 

[Brett Reynolds]

Yes, I never really bought the idea of euro retracing to 1.18-1.22 area even with the Bullish engulfing candle in April. I look at the weekly candles and with the prevailing trend.

 

[Brett Reynolds]

Did we get the 'Stop Grabber' on the Euro by close yesterday Sive. Market has today continued with downward continuation although i am looking at 1.0890 to enter short again..to be sure that this retracement has finished!

 

[Dave Hanson]

On the other hand, Sive, the weak China manufacturing PMI data could cause the US Fed to not raise interest rates in September. We may get a hint in the upcoming Fed meeting. This could result in euro rising versus USD. It's a tough economic climate out there. As usual, Sive, you're doing a good job keeping us abreast. It's tough to maneuver the euro-greenback right now, changing almost daily. The fall in price of crude and natty plus Draghi's determination to keep providing stimulus + a FOMC decision to delay could get currency traders to back the euro.

 

[Dave Hanson]

Sive, we're also now within your target range for Canadian loonie to start retracement. Your range in video a few days ago is USD 1.3080-1.3152 (loonie 7604-7645). Presently at 7639. Am looking for pattern to enter. Target 7812-7830.

 

[Sive Morten]

On the other hand, Sive, the weak China manufacturing PMI data could cause the US Fed to not raise interest rates in September. We may get a hint in the upcoming Fed meeting. This could result in euro rising versus USD. It's a tough economic climate out there. As usual, Sive, you're doing a good job keeping us abreast. It's tough to maneuver the euro-greenback right now, changing almost daily. The fall in price of crude and natty plus Draghi's determination to keep providing stimulus + a FOMC decision to delay could get currency traders to back the euro.

Yes, it's really tough time for EUR now, but we will continue to keep an eye on it. Commodity currencies look simpler, clearer and with great potential, all of them - CAD, NZD, AUD. Concerning rate hike - I think that this still will happen, because disappointment impact, if they will not do this - will be much stronger. They have given too clear hints on this question to step out right now. Besides, upward rally could happen after hike (at least short-term), since it mostly priced-in already.
I have a suspicious that Fed see some problems with coming inflation in some non-public stats. Because currently it is difficult to explain this issue. Commodities are falling across the board, i.e. become cheaper (opposite to inflation process), job market has not repaired yet totally, too much part-time employees, wages growth is mostly flat, US companies shows mix earning reports, consumption stands mostly flat as well, world economy gradually chills down and EU, JPY stands with QE that support dollar even without any rate hiking. The only reason is inflation hazard in US that has not creeped yet in CPI, PPI numbers. May be this is coming echo of 3-year QE in US, who knows...At least I can't find any other explanation.