฿ Bitcoin BTC/USD Weekly, September 03-07, 2018

[Sive Morten]

Morning guys,

Recently BTC has completed our short-term targets.

As a result on 4H chart we have mentioned two targets and BTC has hit the last one around major 5/8 resistance, and completed 1.618 butterfly "Sell" pattern, which is also AB=CD target OP':

By taking a look at hourly chart - we see more details. Last upside leg takes the shape of butterfly as well. Overall upside action takes the shape of wedge, accompanied by MACD divergence and could be treated as 3-Drive "Sell", which suggests at least drop below the lows of second drive of 6800$. But, in perspective of daily chart - this could be even stronger drop:

So, currently it seems as not good moment for any long position. On daily chart price stands at major 5/8 Agreement resistance and actually we have "222" Sell pattern here. Our DRPO "Buy" LAL pattern that we've mentioned 2-3 weeks ago has been completed:

At the same time, guys, BTC looks not bad on weekly chart. Last week shows tail close and upside acceleration within recent 3 weeks. With some tightening, we even could recognize a kind of 3 white soldiers pattern on weekly chart - three consecutive while candles. Although they are not perfect and not a tail close, with some retracement, but not a letter is important, but dynamic of the market here.

Thus, after reaction on daily/intraday resistance and pullback to ~6800$ upward action could continue. Besides, Rodger have mentioned bullish grabber on weekly, so it also stands in the same upside direction.

 

[Sive Morten]

Greetings everybody,

Today we do not have a lot of changes since yesterday. BTC price stands in rather tight range. Yesterday we've talked about possible downside reversal as major targets have been reached and BTC has formed a kind of 3-Drive "Sell" pattern. Yesterday was a holiday, so, may be price behavior was not too representative, today we'll see, but, by technical picture, it could mean that another minor leg up will happen before downside retracement.

On 4H chart we have uncompleted major XOP which stands at 7500:

At the same time on hourly chart BTC price is coiling right around the top without any reaction on major targets that have been reached. Now it takes the shape of flag/triangle consolidation. Divergence with MACD looks like bullish dynamic pressure. It makes me think that we could get 1.27 butterfly or, may be "222" Sell at least. Once XOP will be hit - retracement should start:

 

[Sive Morten]

Hi guys,

Today's just brief update, because BTC chart has not changed. It seems that we're right and indeed BTC is prepareing for upside leg, at least to ~7500$ area. Bullish dynamic pressure becomes brighter and price is forming ascending triangle. All other things that we've mentioned yesterday are the same:

 

[Brett Reynolds]

Goldmen Sachs dumped their Crypto Trading Deskin london today! My Russian Spy told me..!

 

[RogerTC]

In our previous analysis, we mentioned the stop grabber buy pattern which targets the stops above 8500 and we also mentioned the gap at CME futures contract at 7365. We placed buy limit orders around 6480 and got filled. Our first target was the gap + fibonacci agreement resistance zone around 7300-7500.

So looking our weekly; our long term context is still valid and stop grabber buy is in play. We have OP fibonacci expansion resistance at 8600 just above the highs and very strong agreement (1.618 fibonacci expansion + 0.382 fibonacci retracement) resistance zone around 10200.

On the daily;

Market has showed a significant pull pack after closing the gap and touching our agreement resistance at 7400ish. as expected. Daily trend change is approaching.

Looking at our fibonacci support levels on daily ;

We have disrespected confluence (fibonacci 0.318 + 0.618 retracement levels) support around 7035-7088 this zone might act as resistance on the pullback. Market sitting on 6900 confluence support zone recently. We do have another gap on daily at 6595. So market might try to close this gap first and then push higher.

On the long term it is still bullish we can move our stops to breakeven. I already closed half of my long position at daily agreement resistance at 7370. Take note of that failing of stop grabber on weekly will be very bearish.

 

[Sive Morten]

Greetings everybody,

So, miracle has not happened and BTC has not done final leg up before collapse on hourly chart, but this is not really important, because our major scenario holds. As we have suggested last week, BTC stands in large "222" Sell pattern on daily:

The speed of dropping, makes us think that chances are solid that we will get breakout of recent lows and our basic weekly scenario will be realised. Now, on 4H chart market is struggling with 5/8 major support. But it seems that it has no chances to hold the collapse:

Here is again - our previous chart on nearest perspective of BTC :

Since market right now stands at oversold around 5/8 Fib support, downward action to take a temporal relief and some upside bounce could follow. But later downside action probably will be re-established.

 

[Sive Morten]

Goldmen Sachs dumped their Crypto Trading Deskin london today! My Russian Spy told me..!

Sherlock, why it is always fog in London?
It's russian are poisoning their spies, Watson.

 

[RogerTC]

6700-6750 stands as a good resistance zone to short the market for a scalp trade.

 

[Sive Morten]

Hi everybody,

Action right now stands rather fast, thus, we do not have something yet on intraday chart - just long black line down. All that we could do is to estimate some targets on daily. As we've mentioned earlier our "222" Sell pattern has been triggered perfectly, as soon as AB-CD retracement up was over and in longer-term perspective we have Butterfly "Buy" target, discussed yesterday.

Since market is flirting with daily Oversold level, downside action should slow down a bit, and here we could keep an eye on 5911$ target. This is faded COP of daily AB-CD pattern. "Faded" means that I took not the absolute top as "A" point, but lower one, where downside action indeed has started. Real COP target stands below recent lows, which also is a tricky moment actually... But this is topic for the next week.

As market is passing through last major 5/8 Fib support here, 5911 is nearest target.