Forex EUR/USD Daily Video, January 10, 2024

[Sive Morten]

Good morning,

So, market has formed 1H "222" Buy pattern, as we've discussed. Now we need just wait and see, whether EUR will be able to move with it or fail:

 

[Davidovic]

Hi Sive,
On the USD/JPY, do you think the right shoulder is forming to drop further? Or is the USD/JPY ready to seek the OP- XOP new highs 152 - 162,000? What's your opinion?

 

[Sive Morten]

Hi Sive,
On the USD/JPY, do you think the right shoulder is forming to drop further? Or is the USD/JPY ready to seek the OP- XOP new highs 152 - 162,000? What's your opinion?

Hi mate, long-term JPY picture looks bearish to me (in terms of chart direction, i.e. bullish for JPY itself )
Performance on weekly/monthly chart looks like failed attempt to push price above major OP. Otherworlds, major upside continuation has failed. Huge Double Top might be formed here...

From this point of view, I'm more tending to idea of downside continuation. Now price is reacting on daily K-support of ~142.50 area and weekly oversold. But reaction is gradually exhausting, loosing momentum.

If you would like to take long-term bearish position here, but worry of sharp upside reversal - as a compromise, you could wait for downside breakout of 142 lows (neckline). But selling around daily resistance areas seems have less money risk... Also some uncertainty about direction still remains.

 

[Sive Morten]

Morning guys,

So, events are raising like snowball. Inflation report mostly is dollar supportive, and we saw the first reaction down. But now accent is moving toward geopolitics - Yemen etc. In general daily view remains bearish, as well as nominal trend direction. This kind of consolidation, like flag, very rare becomes reversal one. In most cases this is continuation pattern. And the absence of thrusting action suggests that this is mostly lazy reaction on support area rather than some real purchases.

On 4H chart market can't break existed resistance levels and even reach major 5/8 one. Upward action seems too choppy for reversal. So, in general we suggest that EUR daily picture remains bearish and until price is under 1.1040 area, it is possible consider short position taking:

The same is on 1H chart. It is 3rd test of so called neckline, and market can't break it up. If Yemen conflict turns on negative scenario, demand for US dollar will increase. Yields are already turning down... Something tells me that this confrontation will not be as easy as all previous ones and some negative surprises could be ahead.

That's being said, long position are possible to consider if EUR moves above 1.1040. Meantime we consider only short positions.

 

[Davidovic]

Hi mate, long-term JPY picture looks bearish to me (in terms of chart direction, i.e. bullish for JPY itself )
Performance on weekly/monthly chart looks like failed attempt to push price above major OP. Otherworlds, major upside continuation has failed. Huge Double Top might be formed here...

From this point of view, I'm more tending to idea of downside continuation. Now price is reacting on daily K-support of ~142.50 area and weekly oversold. But reaction is gradually exhausting, loosing momentum.

If you would like to take long-term bearish position here, but worry of sharp upside reversal - as a compromise, you could wait for downside breakout of 142 lows (neckline). But selling around daily resistance areas seems have less money risk... Also some uncertainty about direction still remains.

Thank you!