Forex EUR/USD Daily Video, October 30, 2023

[Sive Morten]

Good morning,

EUR keeps nominal bullish daily context, with now two bullish grabbers on board (on DXY chart), but we suggest to see Monday open due to Middle East escalation, to make a decision on any bullish position. If grabbers remain valid - it should be safer entry and at better price. Otherwise no longs should be taken

 

[Davidovic]

Hi Sive, could it be that the USD/JPY is an interesting pair to follow for a possible retracement towards daily K area around 142,000?

 

[chalo]

Hi Sive, thank you very much always appreciate your explanations and guidance.

 

[Sive Morten]

Hi Sive, could it be that the USD/JPY is an interesting pair to follow for a possible retracement towards daily K area around 142,000?

Hi mate, well, I supposed it would be pure bet on BoJ intruding. If we wouldn't have a chance for intervention from BoJ, I wouldn't consider any shorts, because they are against fundamentals of Japanese economy right now.

Yes, we see some slowdown on daily and intraday charts on a fear of possible intervention, and even have some minor bearish patterns. But, on weekly chart we have near standing OP, despite higher, butterfly target:

Since you're watching for 142, which suggests daily/weekly TF for trading, because it is too much for intraday charts, from technical point of view I would prefer to get OP first, then see what will happen. It is too much of intervention bet, if you enter right here. But, maybe it works... we do not know that. As a compromise, maybe you could try to sell and place stop above OP, hoping on BoJ action.

 

[Davidovic]

Hi mate, well, I supposed it would be pure bet on BoJ intruding. If we wouldn't have a chance for intervention from BoJ, I wouldn't consider any shorts, because they are against fundamentals of Japanese economy right now.

Yes, we see some slowdown on daily and intraday charts on a fear of possible intervention, and even have some minor bearish patterns. But, on weekly chart we have near standing OP, despite higher, butterfly target:
View attachment 87569

Since you're watching for 142, which suggests daily/weekly TF for trading, because it is too much for intraday charts, from technical point of view I would prefer to get OP first, then see what will happen. It is too much of intervention bet, if you enter right here. But, maybe it works... we do not know that. As a compromise, maybe you could try to sell and place stop above OP, hoping on BoJ action.

Thank you Sive

 

[Sive Morten]

Mate, I do not know whether you have taken the short position, but we were right on the reason:

The Bank of Japan may reconsider its yield curve control policy and allow 10-year bonds to trade at a yield above 1%, Nikkei reports

So, we've got verbal intervention by far. And here is the reaction. Although it is still far until 142, that you've mentioned. But this situation shows that JPY right now totally depends on BoJ activity. Fundamentals are clear and they are not in favor of JPY growth.