GOLD Daily Video, October 09, 2013

[Sive Morten]

Good morning,
since price action is anemic, let's talk a bit bigger fundamental situation:





The technical portion of Sive's analysis owes a great deal to Joe DiNapoli's methods, and uses a number of Joe's proprietary indicators. Please note that Sive's analysis is his own view of the market and is not endorsed by Joe DiNapoli or any related companies.

 

[Brett Reynolds]

Yes. Interesting discussion Sive. You mention 'forums' etc!? Is 'this' the forum!? ie..Just putting in replies on this thread..or is there another area on the site where discussions take place? I am a little confused with the FPA site sometimes as there are other 'giants' who now post. Also i do not get hardly any 'updates' from 'other traders' to replies to your Daily videos...except..my own replies...it seems!? Maybe it's the settings or please tell me exactly where to look?
As for your analysis on the S&P 500 it is looking very similar on the DJ30 which i sometimes trade. This peeked around 15700 with a very nice weekly Pin Bar. There is a trend line a drew at a major resistance line around 14450/60.I wonder if it will arrive at this area around Oct 17th!? It will be very coincidental...if it does!?

 

[JXXXX]

Dear Sive, thank very much for your in depth analysis. I remember last time we had a stock market crash (the bailout), and then also everyone expected gold to soar but it didn't, not immediately anyway. I bought then and was disappointed. It did go up later quite nicely but failed to make previous highs. this and the delay made me very wary as I felt something was wrong and so at a reasonable price I sold all my physical gold, which was right, and haven;t held any since. Now everyone is saying gold must go up, but it keeps going down. So I don;t trust this and so like so many traders, I wait and trade short term trades only.
If I had to make a guess I would say that no one really has that there is not much confidence in any currency and so because of the direct relativity of the forex market, if all currency are weak, then no currency is weak and so there is no point in making a shift into gold.
Of course there is also the conspiracy theory that the big banks and government do not like the ideas of private individuals holding gold instead of placing it in banks and so seek to undermine the competition by disrupting the gold market The gold market is venerable because of its size and the fact that people do not really need gold they way they do currencies that must be used for their transactions. A bit far retched perhaps but strange things are happenging

 

[MeLasz]

Very interesting subject and I think there would be much more comments if You open a new thread for it

 

[Sive Morten]

Yes. Interesting discussion Sive. You mention 'forums' etc!? Is 'this' the forum!? ie..Just putting in replies on this thread..or is there another area on the site where discussions take place? I am a little confused with the FPA site sometimes as there are other 'giants' who now post. Also i do not get hardly any 'updates' from 'other traders' to replies to your Daily videos...except..my own replies...it seems!? Maybe it's the settings or please tell me exactly where to look?
As for your analysis on the S&P 500 it is looking very similar on the DJ30 which i sometimes trade. This peeked around 15700 with a very nice weekly Pin Bar. There is a trend line a drew at a major resistance line around 14450/60.I wonder if it will arrive at this area around Oct 17th!? It will be very coincidental...if it does!?

Well, it is assumed that discussion will develop in weekly thread on gold . Current thread is just a daily update, it will be closed 2 day after.

Dear Sive, thank very much for your in depth analysis. I remember last time we had a stock market crash (the bailout), and then also everyone expected gold to soar but it didn't, not immediately anyway. I bought then and was disappointed. It did go up later quite nicely but failed to make previous highs. this and the delay made me very wary as I felt something was wrong and so at a reasonable price I sold all my physical gold, which was right, and haven;t held any since. Now everyone is saying gold must go up, but it keeps going down. So I don;t trust this and so like so many traders, I wait and trade short term trades only.
If I had to make a guess I would say that no one really has that there is not much confidence in any currency and so because of the direct relativity of the forex market, if all currency are weak, then no currency is weak and so there is no point in making a shift into gold.
Of course there is also the conspiracy theory that the big banks and government do not like the ideas of private individuals holding gold instead of placing it in banks and so seek to undermine the competition by disrupting the gold market The gold market is venerable because of its size and the fact that people do not really need gold they way they do currencies that must be used for their transactions. A bit far retched perhaps but strange things are happenging

Well, may be your conclusions are reasonable (although we think that gold should go down first) anyway, I just share with my thoughts. Because when them have appeared in my mind, it has seemed interesting to me and I've decided to put this into discussion.
From the other side, if all money are weak, yes, may be rate has not changed between them, but you can buy nothing... And I mostly spoke not about Forex market per se, but in general on possible flows between markets.
[/QUOTE]

 

[leo4fx]

Good point

Hi Sive,

Thanks for pointing this out.
It reminds me that this scenario has happende before in the same way.
The stockmarket crashed and investors sold everything to get liquid.

My working theory was that this time it would be different.
But why would it be.
Your theory makes better sense, tapering => take away inflation fear => gold down & stocks down.
Kill two birds with one stone.
And the FED gets to buy their gold back to do the same trick again.

What timeframe do you picture for the down move? Until march 2014 ?

 

[Sive Morten]

What timeframe do you picture for the down move? Until march 2014 ?

Heh, question for 1 mln dollars. But I think that this should happen relatively fast, before everybody else will be able to think and accomodate to this situation. At least initial lead move should be fast and relatively sudden.