Gold GOLD PRO WEEKLY, January 02 - 06, 2022

[Sive Morten]

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Gold Pro Weekly January 02 - 06, 2023

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[Sive Morten]

Greetings everybody,

So, it seems that we did everything correct, agreed to stay aside from bearish position by far. Gold is showing strong rally now, and already has hit our 1843 target. As major resistance stands around 1852 and price is not at overbought - it should reach it as well.

This level is interesting by two reasons. First is, this is weekly resistance as well, and market reaction around it might be decisive. Second - price now is flirting with monthly MACDP, which brings some chances on appearing of bearish grabber:

Gold Daily chart

On 4H chart market keeps moving inside the consolidation, forming HH-HL pattern. So, it is no shorts by far:

Gold 4H

On 1H chart our setup has worked well. Butterfly is formed, and nearest target is completed. But, current action stands so strong, that no doubts - gold will reach 1855 target as well. This target agrees with major Fib resistance, so, market reaction, as we've said will be important. Minor pullback to ~ 1845 tells that upward action continues, while big drop below 1830 top, could lead to big H&S pattern and start of major retracement. Let's keep watching:

Gold 1H

 

[Sive Morten]

Greetings everybody,

So, our view on gold market was more or less correct yesterday. Upward rally was strong enough to suggest further action to 1855$ target, that also has been hit and even exceeded. I do not know whether you've signed or not, but gold is rising together with USD. This is the sign of running into safe haven and tells that some political background is involved. I know only one public event - US Senate can't choose the Speaker yesterday. And most curious rumors suggest that D. Trump might be a speaker. We will see.

On daily chart the nearest target stands around 1896$. This level is very important, because it creates Agreement with major Monthly 5/8 resistance:

Meantime, as gold has hit butterfly target, it makes sense to watch for pullback. Supposedly if gold remains above 1840$ K-support - it keeps chances on upward continuation to 1896. If not - then probably this rally is short-term and will be over. So 1840 is important level to watch.

 

[Sive Morten]

Greetings everybody,

While EUR keeps bearish scenario, Gold in the opposite - has bullish context, which keeps overall situation tricky a bit. Yesterday it was also opposite performance on EUR and on Gold market. Currently we do not see anything that could make us to change our view on daily context. Market is not at overbought, trend is bullish, so we still keep our target around 1900$ area valid:

On 1H chart gold accurately follows to our plan, making gradual, AB-CD shape retracement that agrees with K-support area around 1840$. This is perfect combination for bullish scenario. Also we should get "222" Buy pattern. If data releases will intrude and break the context - then gold should turn up again around predefined 1840 level. To get additional insurance, we could consider long entry after upside reversal happens.

 

[Sive Morten]

Greetings everybody,

So, downside action has happened, and even more extended with the ADP boost. Although bullish context is still valid here, on daily chart, recent performance suggests that downside retracement could be more extended. Now we have bearish engulfing pattern on top, suggesting AB-CD downside action on intraday charts:

Besides, yesterday market not only has dropped through 1840 K-support and OP target as its no exist, but dropped even in excess of XOP. I suspect that has happened to close former gap but nevertheless, this is more than normal retracement on bullish market. Second - gold has formed downside reversal swing, and now you easily could recognize H&S shape here. It means, as we've said, that chances on downside larger AB-CD are relatively high, and NFP data should determine the "C" point placement. Bad NFP could move C point higher, to 1850 around upside minor XOP, while good NFP could trigger downside action right from here:

Most probable destination point will be around 1810-1820 wide K-support area. Thus, currently we do not see anything good for the bulls by far. Bears could consider entry around mentioned resistance levels - 1840 and/or 1850. If market jumps above 1850 and will keep going to 1865 top - that will be the sign of bearish failure here.