Sive Morten
Special Consultant to the FPA
- Messages
- 18,699
Fundamentals
(Reuters) - Gold prices edged lower on Friday as slightly weaker U.S. inflation and consumer spending data did little to dampen expectations of an interest rate hike in December.
Spot gold was down 0.3 percent at $1,283.61 per ounce by 2:31 p.m. EDT (1831 GMT). Gold futures for December delivery settled down $3.90, or 0.3 percent, at $1,284.80 per ounce, 2.8 percent lower for September, yet 2.9 percent higher for the quarter.
Spot gold was on track to decline 3 percent in September, its largest monthly fall so far in 2017 and the biggest since November 2016, after the dollar strengthened. However, it was set to end the quarter 3.3 percent higher , rallying in July and August, partly due to geopolitical tensions including North Korea's missile tests.
U.S. data showed inflation remained benign in August with the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rising 1.3 percent year-on-year, after advancing 1.4 percent in July. Core PCE is the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure and has a 2 percent target.
Friday's data, however, hardly dimmed prospects of a rise, with financial markets pricing a roughly 71 percent probability of a December interest rate hike, compared with 76 percent earlier, the CME FedWatch tool showed.
Gold is highly sensitive to rising U.S. interest rates, which increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion, while boosting the greenback. Looming geopolitical tensions limited gold's losses, added
Bart Melek, head of commodity strategy at TD Securities in Toronto.
And yet…
Alarm bells are ringing for economic fundamentalists such as Fathom Consulting. Asset prices look increasingly out of step with fundamentals, and in some cases they look downright bubbly. And other geopolitical developments are similarly alarming. One might even describe them as…
Mad:
Equity prices in developed economies, and specifically in the US, are more than one standard deviation higher than their long-run average in relation to nominal GDP.
Mad:
The Nasdaq has again played its part, posting an even greater degree of fundamental overvaluation than the S&P 500. Its degree of overvaluation in relation to nominal GDP is now close to its dotcom bubble high.
Mad:
Government bond prices across the developed world are at all-time highs. Bond prices have been increasing consistently since the 1980s, with a series of global shocks driving that move.
Total central bank assets across the developed world now stand at over $14 trillion, having increased by about $10 trillion since the recession. Over the same period, the new issuance of government debt has increased dramatically right across the G5. All else the same, you would expect such an increase in government debt to result in higher government bond yields (lower prices). However, short rates have fallen to the lower bound and QE has been introduced, mopping up almost all of the value of new issuance of government debt across the major developed economies. It is no surprise, therefore, that the price of government bonds has increased over the same period, by around 18%.
Is it possible for there to be a bubble in government bond prices in the world’s leading developed economies? Unlike other asset markets, there is no realistic question about the long-term risk attached to the underlying asset. Economies do not go out of business. However, they do default and, while a hard default is unlikely for these economies, a soft default via inflation and/or financial repression is not.
Bubbles in asset prices can arise, and can burst, without necessitating a complete collapse in the value of the underlying – in this case a hard default. Put another way: is there any threshold for bond prices beyond which we would call a bubble? If such a threshold exists, we have surely passed it. The bubble emerges as follows: the major central banks entered the market for government bonds in 2009 and have bought $1 trillion a year since then. They were committed to buying no matter the price. In addition, there are other parties who are obliged by regulation to hold large quantities of government debt from the major developed economies. For the remaining free agents in bond markets, the rational step is to buy, safe in the knowledge that, for the time being, there is always another buyer out there who will pay more. That implies we should be concerned about the impact of a reversal in QE – if we’re in a bubble, that could burst it.
MAD:
Mutual Assured Destruction (MAD) was something we all hoped we had left behind in the 1980s. But now it is back. The only way we can sleep soundly in the current geopolitical environment is in the knowledge that possession of nuclear weapons will not result in Armageddon as long as the logic of MAD holds. No sane person would ever press the button. But, for MAD to work, all parties have to believe that every other party might press the button.
MAD fails if everyone is rational and is perceived as such. But it also fails if anyone is actually mad. At present, markets appear sanguine about the risks around North Korea: let us hope they are right.
Despite all these uncertainties and fundamental disequilibria in asset markets, risk metrics are generally at, or close to, all-time lows.
Markets are not worried. Why?
Here are two, mutually exclusive candidate explanations.
First, markets believe that there is stronger growth to come in the global economy in the long term, and that makes them comfortable with high valuations for asset prices and low risk metrics: yields are set to rise across all asset markets in the long term, with fixed-income assets falling in price and equity assets holding or even rising from here.
Second, markets believe that yields will stay low, driven by high debt, permanent ZIRP, QE and other unconventional measures from the central banks and — increasingly — finance ministries. Bond prices will stay high, as will equity prices and other asset prices, but growth will remain mired in the post-recession new normal in the long term.
Immediately after the election of President Trump, Fathom took the first view. The US, fuelled by a fiscal splurge, would accelerate to old-fashioned, Reagan-era growth rates and, by doing so, would move decisively away from the zero lower bound for the policy rate. Other countries would either follow suit after an interval, or would be pulled along on the coat-tails of the US.
However, the evidence of the first eight months of the new administration suggests that the President will struggle to achieve this ‘escape velocity’ (in the words of Mark Carney, Governor of the Bank of England), because he will struggle to get any meaningful policy measures passed by congress. The US will not escape the new normal unless it can pull away from zero rates in the long term, and it cannot do that without unlocking significant, domestically-generated inflation: wage inflation. The prevailing headwinds for wage inflation are substantial. To overcome these headwinds, the tailwind provided by growth needs to be very strong — escape velocity for the US economy is growth rates persistently and substantially north of 3%.
That is no longer Fathom’s central case. We now take the second view.
The US will not escape, and neither will anyone else. Even China, posting growth rates back up in the 8% range now according to our China Momentum Indicator, is on a temporary, credit-fuelled binge. The common factor everywhere is a colossal build-up of debt and its corollary, a fall in real yields. Ultra-low yields, held in place for this long, gradually and progressively undermine the growth rate of productivity. The impact of debt on rates and thence on productivity growth is evident right across the developed world and as far afield now as South Korea, the world’s star performer for the last 40 years.
In Fathom’s upside scenario, the Trump administration does successfully pass the planned fiscal measures and introduces significant tariffs on Chinese imports, too. In addition, the leading politicians in the euro area, Mr Macron and Ms Merkel, start decisively down a path towards full debt-mutualisation, and deliver the euro area into a much stronger long-term outlook. Other countries benefit from coat-tails effects, and the global economy looks rosy for the long term. Unfortunately, we only place a 10% weight on this outcome at present.
And there is an equal weight on the downside case, where a banking crisis in China pushes that economy into recession in the short term and into much lower growth further out. Without the support of China, other emerging economies also suffer. And a recession in China is strongly deflationary for the global economy as a whole. The downside scenario is global stagnation. Japan stands out in this scenario: the impact on Japan is so negative that they are forced into a radically different policy: shock and awe levels of helicopter money. Japan generates chronic but not hyper-inflation and, reduces the debt burden as a share of GDP substantially. It probably encounters a recession along the way but, after that, growth returns to old-normal rates. There is a chance of such a rosy outcome for Japan, but it should be acknowledged that the risks around such a policy are enormous. This is genuinely uncharted territory: here be dragons!
COT Report
Recent CFTC numbers shows light bearish tendency among investors' positions. Third week in a row net long position decreases, as well as open interest. It means that investors have closed more longs positions rather than shorts.
Also it could be important, that recent top of position around 220 K contracts is a normal historical maximum of speculative positions. This level was exceeded only once, in July 2016, when positions hit 300K level and this is new absolute top, while previously 220-250K was a ceil. Although gold has not reached it again, I mean 300K level, but standing relatively close to it and near historical top also could press on gold. In July 2016 gold was a bit exacerbated by Fed dovish policy that pushed price to high level of 1380$. It's a big question whether gold will be able to repeat this action again.
That's why currently it seems that overall sentiment stands lightly bearish, at least with no enthusiasm concerning upside continuation.
SPDR fund statistics also doesn't show any panic yet among investors. Mostly current downward action is treated as retracement and investments have been increased in gold last week:
Technical
Monthly
Last week market stepped down a bit more, but it makes not effect yet on monthly picture - trend is still bullish, and September action mostly was an inside one to August.
On July and August we have tail close. Right now market has reached solid resistance area around 1330. It already has been tested once, but it is still valid. This is not just 3/8 major monthly Fib level. This is also Yearly Pivot Resistance 1 and 0.618 AB-CD target. Right now market still stands close to it.
Next major target will stand around 50% Fib level and Agreement, as it coincides with AB=CD objective point as well. Market could take the shape of butterfly to get there. 1.27 extension also stands in the same area. But to keep this scenario valid price should not drop too deep. If gold will break 1205 lows, it will suggest deeper downside continuation as we already have "222" Sell pattern here:
Weekly
So, Here we have two AB-CD patterns of different scale. First one is large monthly AB-CD that we've mentioned above and this is 0.618 target that has been hit at 1326$.
Second AB-CD is a minor one and it stands inside CD leg of larger one.
Recent price action around these two AB-CD's looks interesting and mostly it is bearish. Market has turned down a bit curiously, that is not typical for normal behavior. In fact, market has turned down after gap up and when as 1326 target as YPR1 were passed already. 1360$ area where market has turned down, actually, was a free space - no resistance above.
Second moment - price has turned but not completed minor AB=CD. In fact, we've got "222" Sell pattern that we've mentioned above. "222" doesn't need necessary AB equal CD inside, it could be different and it still will be "222" pattern.
Finally CD leg was faster and market was tending to CD target, but suddenly turned down. All these moments point on bearish nature of this action and this is not some fluctuations inside upside swing probably.
Now price easily has dropped below first 1300 support area with no signs of respect, three weeks in a row we have tail closing, and gold is not at OS here. This price behavior suggests that gold easily should reach 1260-1265 support area.
Daily
On daily chart we do not have something really special. Trend is bearish here. Most important signal of last week is a breakout of daily K-support area around 1290-1300. It was done relatively easy, just minor upside bounce has happened out from it, and it is still a question whether this bounce was due K-support or just because of OS has been reached...
On this chart we do not have any valuable patterns and setups. The only thing that we have is a bit steep AB-CD pattern. It's minor destination point stands around 1270 level. As price is not at OS right now, it makes us think that gold has good chances to proceed downside action to 1260 level on next week:
Intraday
On intraday charts we also have only blur hints. Thus, on 4-hour chart gold has formed W&R of previous lows, bullish MACD divergence and bullish grabber. Although this combination suggests some upside continuation, but it's rather weak, especially grabber. Flat action of last two sessions mostly reminds bearish dynamic pressure as price was flat while trend has turned bullish. MACD divergence is also not very reliable as it was formed not at solid support.
On hourly chart bulls have last chance to show 1300 retracement. And this chance calls as Double Bottom. Grabber, W&R, which is typical for DB pattern give some chances to it. It means that on coming week we should keep close eye on 1276 lows. If price will break it - no upside action will happen and gold will take the course on next daily support level.
Upside action in the beginning of the week should be relatively strong and fast, if price will turn to sideways flat action - this also will be sign of weakness and increase chances on downside breakout.
target of DB pattern here is 1300 level and Fib resistance.
But even upside retracement will happen, this probably should be nice opportunity for taking short position as situation on higher time frames looks bearish and odds suggest another leg down, at least to 1260-1265 area.
Conclusion
As monthly/weekly trend stands bullish and downside action has no signs of collapse, we treat this action as retracement by far. Still, based on price behavior on weekly and daily chart, it seems that gold should make at least another leg down to next 1260-1265 support area.
In shorter-term perspective, we mostly will be watching for price action on intraday charts, whether upside retracement to 1300 level will happen in the beginning of the week or not. In general it is safer right now sell rallies and treat any upside action as chance to go short at better price, rather than trade 'em long.
The technical portion of Sive's analysis owes a great deal to Joe DiNapoli's methods, and uses a number of Joe's proprietary indicators. Please note that Sive's analysis is his own view of the market and is not endorsed by Joe DiNapoli or any related companies.
(Reuters) - Gold prices edged lower on Friday as slightly weaker U.S. inflation and consumer spending data did little to dampen expectations of an interest rate hike in December.
Spot gold was down 0.3 percent at $1,283.61 per ounce by 2:31 p.m. EDT (1831 GMT). Gold futures for December delivery settled down $3.90, or 0.3 percent, at $1,284.80 per ounce, 2.8 percent lower for September, yet 2.9 percent higher for the quarter.
Spot gold was on track to decline 3 percent in September, its largest monthly fall so far in 2017 and the biggest since November 2016, after the dollar strengthened. However, it was set to end the quarter 3.3 percent higher , rallying in July and August, partly due to geopolitical tensions including North Korea's missile tests.
U.S. data showed inflation remained benign in August with the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rising 1.3 percent year-on-year, after advancing 1.4 percent in July. Core PCE is the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure and has a 2 percent target.
Friday's data, however, hardly dimmed prospects of a rise, with financial markets pricing a roughly 71 percent probability of a December interest rate hike, compared with 76 percent earlier, the CME FedWatch tool showed.
Gold is highly sensitive to rising U.S. interest rates, which increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion, while boosting the greenback. Looming geopolitical tensions limited gold's losses, added
Bart Melek, head of commodity strategy at TD Securities in Toronto.
News in Charts: Global outlook – it’s a mad, mad, mad, MAD world
by Fathom Consulting
The global economy is gathering steam. With one or two notable exceptions (the UK and, to a lesser extent, Japan), both the developed world and the developing world are enjoying above-trend growth — in some cases, a long way above trend. And the upswing has legs: in the US and the EA it is likely to run for another year or two at least, and in China perhaps for a bit longer. Other emerging economies will follow suit. Fathom’s Q3 global short-term forecast underlines this message.
by Fathom Consulting
The global economy is gathering steam. With one or two notable exceptions (the UK and, to a lesser extent, Japan), both the developed world and the developing world are enjoying above-trend growth — in some cases, a long way above trend. And the upswing has legs: in the US and the EA it is likely to run for another year or two at least, and in China perhaps for a bit longer. Other emerging economies will follow suit. Fathom’s Q3 global short-term forecast underlines this message.
In our central forecast, global growth is up in the mid-3% range, with the US peaking at around 3%, the EA running between 1.5% and 2%, China accelerating back up to around 8%, and other emerging economies benefiting from continued growth in global trade, for now . By the standards of the ‘new normal’, this is boom time for the global economy. Japan and the UK are laggards, with the UK in particular being negatively affected by the impact of uncertainty and higher import prices induced by Brexit. But countries who have not recently shot themselves in the foot are generally doing relatively well.
And yet…
Alarm bells are ringing for economic fundamentalists such as Fathom Consulting. Asset prices look increasingly out of step with fundamentals, and in some cases they look downright bubbly. And other geopolitical developments are similarly alarming. One might even describe them as…
Mad:
Equity prices in developed economies, and specifically in the US, are more than one standard deviation higher than their long-run average in relation to nominal GDP.
Mad:
The Nasdaq has again played its part, posting an even greater degree of fundamental overvaluation than the S&P 500. Its degree of overvaluation in relation to nominal GDP is now close to its dotcom bubble high.
Mad:
Government bond prices across the developed world are at all-time highs. Bond prices have been increasing consistently since the 1980s, with a series of global shocks driving that move.
Total central bank assets across the developed world now stand at over $14 trillion, having increased by about $10 trillion since the recession. Over the same period, the new issuance of government debt has increased dramatically right across the G5. All else the same, you would expect such an increase in government debt to result in higher government bond yields (lower prices). However, short rates have fallen to the lower bound and QE has been introduced, mopping up almost all of the value of new issuance of government debt across the major developed economies. It is no surprise, therefore, that the price of government bonds has increased over the same period, by around 18%.
Is it possible for there to be a bubble in government bond prices in the world’s leading developed economies? Unlike other asset markets, there is no realistic question about the long-term risk attached to the underlying asset. Economies do not go out of business. However, they do default and, while a hard default is unlikely for these economies, a soft default via inflation and/or financial repression is not.
Bubbles in asset prices can arise, and can burst, without necessitating a complete collapse in the value of the underlying – in this case a hard default. Put another way: is there any threshold for bond prices beyond which we would call a bubble? If such a threshold exists, we have surely passed it. The bubble emerges as follows: the major central banks entered the market for government bonds in 2009 and have bought $1 trillion a year since then. They were committed to buying no matter the price. In addition, there are other parties who are obliged by regulation to hold large quantities of government debt from the major developed economies. For the remaining free agents in bond markets, the rational step is to buy, safe in the knowledge that, for the time being, there is always another buyer out there who will pay more. That implies we should be concerned about the impact of a reversal in QE – if we’re in a bubble, that could burst it.
MAD:
Mutual Assured Destruction (MAD) was something we all hoped we had left behind in the 1980s. But now it is back. The only way we can sleep soundly in the current geopolitical environment is in the knowledge that possession of nuclear weapons will not result in Armageddon as long as the logic of MAD holds. No sane person would ever press the button. But, for MAD to work, all parties have to believe that every other party might press the button.
MAD fails if everyone is rational and is perceived as such. But it also fails if anyone is actually mad. At present, markets appear sanguine about the risks around North Korea: let us hope they are right.
Despite all these uncertainties and fundamental disequilibria in asset markets, risk metrics are generally at, or close to, all-time lows.
Markets are not worried. Why?
Here are two, mutually exclusive candidate explanations.
First, markets believe that there is stronger growth to come in the global economy in the long term, and that makes them comfortable with high valuations for asset prices and low risk metrics: yields are set to rise across all asset markets in the long term, with fixed-income assets falling in price and equity assets holding or even rising from here.
Second, markets believe that yields will stay low, driven by high debt, permanent ZIRP, QE and other unconventional measures from the central banks and — increasingly — finance ministries. Bond prices will stay high, as will equity prices and other asset prices, but growth will remain mired in the post-recession new normal in the long term.
Immediately after the election of President Trump, Fathom took the first view. The US, fuelled by a fiscal splurge, would accelerate to old-fashioned, Reagan-era growth rates and, by doing so, would move decisively away from the zero lower bound for the policy rate. Other countries would either follow suit after an interval, or would be pulled along on the coat-tails of the US.
However, the evidence of the first eight months of the new administration suggests that the President will struggle to achieve this ‘escape velocity’ (in the words of Mark Carney, Governor of the Bank of England), because he will struggle to get any meaningful policy measures passed by congress. The US will not escape the new normal unless it can pull away from zero rates in the long term, and it cannot do that without unlocking significant, domestically-generated inflation: wage inflation. The prevailing headwinds for wage inflation are substantial. To overcome these headwinds, the tailwind provided by growth needs to be very strong — escape velocity for the US economy is growth rates persistently and substantially north of 3%.
That is no longer Fathom’s central case. We now take the second view.
The US will not escape, and neither will anyone else. Even China, posting growth rates back up in the 8% range now according to our China Momentum Indicator, is on a temporary, credit-fuelled binge. The common factor everywhere is a colossal build-up of debt and its corollary, a fall in real yields. Ultra-low yields, held in place for this long, gradually and progressively undermine the growth rate of productivity. The impact of debt on rates and thence on productivity growth is evident right across the developed world and as far afield now as South Korea, the world’s star performer for the last 40 years.
And there is an equal weight on the downside case, where a banking crisis in China pushes that economy into recession in the short term and into much lower growth further out. Without the support of China, other emerging economies also suffer. And a recession in China is strongly deflationary for the global economy as a whole. The downside scenario is global stagnation. Japan stands out in this scenario: the impact on Japan is so negative that they are forced into a radically different policy: shock and awe levels of helicopter money. Japan generates chronic but not hyper-inflation and, reduces the debt burden as a share of GDP substantially. It probably encounters a recession along the way but, after that, growth returns to old-normal rates. There is a chance of such a rosy outcome for Japan, but it should be acknowledged that the risks around such a policy are enormous. This is genuinely uncharted territory: here be dragons!
COT Report
Recent CFTC numbers shows light bearish tendency among investors' positions. Third week in a row net long position decreases, as well as open interest. It means that investors have closed more longs positions rather than shorts.
Also it could be important, that recent top of position around 220 K contracts is a normal historical maximum of speculative positions. This level was exceeded only once, in July 2016, when positions hit 300K level and this is new absolute top, while previously 220-250K was a ceil. Although gold has not reached it again, I mean 300K level, but standing relatively close to it and near historical top also could press on gold. In July 2016 gold was a bit exacerbated by Fed dovish policy that pushed price to high level of 1380$. It's a big question whether gold will be able to repeat this action again.
That's why currently it seems that overall sentiment stands lightly bearish, at least with no enthusiasm concerning upside continuation.
SPDR fund statistics also doesn't show any panic yet among investors. Mostly current downward action is treated as retracement and investments have been increased in gold last week:
Technical
Monthly
Last week market stepped down a bit more, but it makes not effect yet on monthly picture - trend is still bullish, and September action mostly was an inside one to August.
On July and August we have tail close. Right now market has reached solid resistance area around 1330. It already has been tested once, but it is still valid. This is not just 3/8 major monthly Fib level. This is also Yearly Pivot Resistance 1 and 0.618 AB-CD target. Right now market still stands close to it.
Next major target will stand around 50% Fib level and Agreement, as it coincides with AB=CD objective point as well. Market could take the shape of butterfly to get there. 1.27 extension also stands in the same area. But to keep this scenario valid price should not drop too deep. If gold will break 1205 lows, it will suggest deeper downside continuation as we already have "222" Sell pattern here:
Weekly
So, Here we have two AB-CD patterns of different scale. First one is large monthly AB-CD that we've mentioned above and this is 0.618 target that has been hit at 1326$.
Second AB-CD is a minor one and it stands inside CD leg of larger one.
Recent price action around these two AB-CD's looks interesting and mostly it is bearish. Market has turned down a bit curiously, that is not typical for normal behavior. In fact, market has turned down after gap up and when as 1326 target as YPR1 were passed already. 1360$ area where market has turned down, actually, was a free space - no resistance above.
Second moment - price has turned but not completed minor AB=CD. In fact, we've got "222" Sell pattern that we've mentioned above. "222" doesn't need necessary AB equal CD inside, it could be different and it still will be "222" pattern.
Finally CD leg was faster and market was tending to CD target, but suddenly turned down. All these moments point on bearish nature of this action and this is not some fluctuations inside upside swing probably.
Now price easily has dropped below first 1300 support area with no signs of respect, three weeks in a row we have tail closing, and gold is not at OS here. This price behavior suggests that gold easily should reach 1260-1265 support area.
Daily
On daily chart we do not have something really special. Trend is bearish here. Most important signal of last week is a breakout of daily K-support area around 1290-1300. It was done relatively easy, just minor upside bounce has happened out from it, and it is still a question whether this bounce was due K-support or just because of OS has been reached...
On this chart we do not have any valuable patterns and setups. The only thing that we have is a bit steep AB-CD pattern. It's minor destination point stands around 1270 level. As price is not at OS right now, it makes us think that gold has good chances to proceed downside action to 1260 level on next week:
Intraday
On intraday charts we also have only blur hints. Thus, on 4-hour chart gold has formed W&R of previous lows, bullish MACD divergence and bullish grabber. Although this combination suggests some upside continuation, but it's rather weak, especially grabber. Flat action of last two sessions mostly reminds bearish dynamic pressure as price was flat while trend has turned bullish. MACD divergence is also not very reliable as it was formed not at solid support.
On hourly chart bulls have last chance to show 1300 retracement. And this chance calls as Double Bottom. Grabber, W&R, which is typical for DB pattern give some chances to it. It means that on coming week we should keep close eye on 1276 lows. If price will break it - no upside action will happen and gold will take the course on next daily support level.
Upside action in the beginning of the week should be relatively strong and fast, if price will turn to sideways flat action - this also will be sign of weakness and increase chances on downside breakout.
target of DB pattern here is 1300 level and Fib resistance.
But even upside retracement will happen, this probably should be nice opportunity for taking short position as situation on higher time frames looks bearish and odds suggest another leg down, at least to 1260-1265 area.
Conclusion
As monthly/weekly trend stands bullish and downside action has no signs of collapse, we treat this action as retracement by far. Still, based on price behavior on weekly and daily chart, it seems that gold should make at least another leg down to next 1260-1265 support area.
In shorter-term perspective, we mostly will be watching for price action on intraday charts, whether upside retracement to 1300 level will happen in the beginning of the week or not. In general it is safer right now sell rallies and treat any upside action as chance to go short at better price, rather than trade 'em long.
The technical portion of Sive's analysis owes a great deal to Joe DiNapoli's methods, and uses a number of Joe's proprietary indicators. Please note that Sive's analysis is his own view of the market and is not endorsed by Joe DiNapoli or any related companies.
