wynnasuju
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UBS, RBS, Credit Agricole: EUR/USD forecasts
Monday, March 12, 2012 - 12:30
UBS: “US payrolls data were again strong in February, with both the headline figure beating expectations and previous months' seeing decent upwards revisions. Continued employment creation at this pace makes it increasingly hard for Federal Reserve doves to keep pushing the case for further quantitative easing, especially in light of the fact that tail risks associated with the possibility of a European meltdown have been cut back materially. The ECB's successful LTRO operations and the positive Greek PSI outcome have helped in this regard.”
RBS: “Less QE (quantitative easing) in the U.S. is positive for the dollar ... dollar will do better against the yen, euro and sterling. In Europe the weakest data is in the countries with the weakest fiscal position, which is worrying and it's still a case of selling euro on any rallies.” According to the bank, EUR/USD will fall to $1.26 during the next 2-3 months in case U.S. data in the coming weeks is positive.
Credit Agricole: “There's a risk of EUR/USD sustaining a move below $1.31. There are worries about whether Portugal will follow Greece, whether Greece will need another bailout, whether the underlying issues in the country will be resolved.”
Deutsche Bank: “U.S. growth forecasts are being scaled back even as the labor market picks up and that will weigh on the U.S. dollar” – American economic growth is expected to slow this quarter from the fourth quarter's 3% growth (y/y) as consumer spending flattened and exports remained sluggish. However, taking into account euro zone’s problems (primarily, uncertainty about Spain and Italy), the bank’s “baseline scenario remains the euro to drop towards $1.25 in coming months.”
Market Analysis // FBS Markets Inc.
Monday, March 12, 2012 - 12:30
UBS: “US payrolls data were again strong in February, with both the headline figure beating expectations and previous months' seeing decent upwards revisions. Continued employment creation at this pace makes it increasingly hard for Federal Reserve doves to keep pushing the case for further quantitative easing, especially in light of the fact that tail risks associated with the possibility of a European meltdown have been cut back materially. The ECB's successful LTRO operations and the positive Greek PSI outcome have helped in this regard.”
RBS: “Less QE (quantitative easing) in the U.S. is positive for the dollar ... dollar will do better against the yen, euro and sterling. In Europe the weakest data is in the countries with the weakest fiscal position, which is worrying and it's still a case of selling euro on any rallies.” According to the bank, EUR/USD will fall to $1.26 during the next 2-3 months in case U.S. data in the coming weeks is positive.
Credit Agricole: “There's a risk of EUR/USD sustaining a move below $1.31. There are worries about whether Portugal will follow Greece, whether Greece will need another bailout, whether the underlying issues in the country will be resolved.”
Deutsche Bank: “U.S. growth forecasts are being scaled back even as the labor market picks up and that will weigh on the U.S. dollar” – American economic growth is expected to slow this quarter from the fourth quarter's 3% growth (y/y) as consumer spending flattened and exports remained sluggish. However, taking into account euro zone’s problems (primarily, uncertainty about Spain and Italy), the bank’s “baseline scenario remains the euro to drop towards $1.25 in coming months.”
Market Analysis // FBS Markets Inc.
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