UK CPI Y/Y REPORT :
LIVE TRADE : VERDICT : A NO TRADE FOR ME : 25% CHANCE.
Hi Isaac,
Many thanks for sharing. I am not much experienced in trading and I want to learn a lot from you given your experience. so I have a question.... How do you determine the percentage chance? For example in the decision above you said there was only 25%chance. How do you determine this and decide it is not adequate to make you money? On what basis do you decide that 55% chance and above is good enough for trading? Have you ever done a review to determine how the computed chance percentages historically compared to the market? In other words are there chances you have skipped due to low chance percentage and it turned out that there was a great opportunity to make some money?....but the computed chance percentage could have mislead you?
Your views much appreciated.
Thanks