Elliott Wave Analysis by Admiral Markets

[Admiral Markets]

EURUSD & GBPUSD Begin Week with Uptrend Channels

EUR/USD

4 hour



The EUR/USD is most likely expanding the wave 2 correction (green) via a WXY (purple) within wave Y (brown).

1 hour



The EUR/USD pushed up once more on Friday which is probably a wave 5 (green) within the ABC zigzag (blue). Whether the wave 5 is completed or not remains to be seen. A bearish break below the channel (green/orange) could indicate the start of wave X (purple).

GBP/USD

4 hour



The GBPUSD is most likely expanding the wave 5 (pink) but a break below the support trend line (green) could indicate the completion of that wave 5 and wave A (orange).

1 hour



Within wave 5 (pink) price could be expanding the waves within an internal 123 (dark green). The alternative scenario shows a wave 5 (pink) completed at the recent top, which is more likely when the trend line breaks.

USD/JPY

4 hour



The USD/JPY is in a triangle and a bullish break could see price retrace deeper versus the Fibonacci retracement levels. Currently price has stopped at the 38.2% Fib level. A bearish break could indicate the likelihood of wave B (brown) being completed.



“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

US Dollar Slips Back into Triangle Consolidation

EUR/USD

4 hour



The EUR/USD is showing a bullish trend when looking at the recent higher lows, but the downside momentum occurred in 5 waves. This means that the bullish price action is most likely correction (brown Y).

1 hour



The EUR/USD has corrected back lower to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the wave X (purple). A bearish break below the uptrend channel could indicate the potential for price to retrace to lower Fibs levels.

GBP/USD

4 hour



The GBPUSD completed a 5 wave bullish pattern which seems to be part of wave A (orange). The current correction fits within a potential wave B (orange) of a bigger ABC zigzag.

1 hour



The GBP/USD made an ABC (dark green) correction yesterday which seems to fit within a bigger wave W (pink) of wave B (orange) correction.

USD/JPY

4 hour



The USD/JPY is in a triangle and a bullish break could see price retrace deeper versus the Fibonacci retracement levels. A bearish break could indicate the likelihood of wave B (brown) being completed.




“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

USD Momentum within Correction before US Rate Decision

EUR/USD

4 hour



The EUR/USD direction will be dependent on tomorrow's FOMC news event and potential interest rate hike in the USA. For the moment price is above support (green) and could be posting a new higher low as part of a wave X (purple).

1 hour



The EUR/USD could still be in correction within wave X (purple). A break of the resistance trend lines (orange/red) is needed before the wave X can be considered completed. A break of 1st support (light green) could see price fall towards the next Fib level or the next support trend line (dark green).

GBP/USD

4 hour



After the GBPUSD completed a 5 wave bullish pattern, it now seems to be correcting as part of a wave B (orange). However, just as with the EUR/USD, the currency market direction will be highly impacted by Thursday's FOMC event.

1 hour



The GBP/USD bearish momentum yesterday was strong after finding rejection at the resistance trend line (orange), which could be part of a bigger ABC (dark green). The invalidation level of the ABC is a bullish break above the trend line (orange).

USD/JPY

4 hour



The USD/JPY remains solidly in its triangle and it had a strong bullish bounce yesterday at the support trend line (green). Price could stay in the triangle until Thursday's FOMC event.



“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

Markets Hold their Breath & Brace Themselves for Rate Decision

EUR/USD

4 hour



The EUR/USD price movement will be heavily impacted by the FOMC news event and the U.S. interest rate decision.

1 hour



Depending on the news event, the EUR/USD will either correct higher to complete wave C (blue) or move lower and start a new impulsive wave (wave Y is then completed at recent top).

GBP/USD

4 hour



The GBP/USD price movement will be heavily impacted by the FOMC news event and the U.S. interest rate decision.

1 hour



Depending on the news event, price will move up to continue with wave C (orange) or move down in a new impulse.

USD/JPY

4 hour



The USD/JPY price movement will be heavily impacted by the FOMC news event and the U.S. interest rate decision.



“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

US Dollar Weakens with Sturdy Bearish Momentum

EUR/USD

4 hour



The EUR/USD continued its bullish sentiment yesterday with a rally to higher levels as part of a wave C (purple).

1 hour



Yesterday's upside seems to be part of a wave 3 (blue) and the current correction could stop at the Fibonacci retracement levels if this is indeed a wave 4 (blue).

GBP/USD

4 hour



The GBP/USD is still correcting via an ABC (orange) in a wave 2 or B (green).

1 hour



Yesterday saw price go sideways as part of a wave 4 (pink) and the bullish break is now most likely part of a wave 5 (pink) of a wave C (orange).

USD/JPY

4 hour



The USD/JPY saw bearish price action yesterday but remains in a large contracting wedge (red and green trend lines). A bearish break below the triangle confirms the completion of wave B (brown) and the start of wave C (brown).



“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

Bullish Momentum Supersedes US Dollar Downtrend

EUR/USD

4 hour



The EUR/USD completed a bullish ABC (purple) but stopped and respected the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the wave 2 (green). The quick fall after that could a first indication of wave 3 (green) start but the break of the uptrend channel (green) is needed before a confirmation is seen.

1 hour



The EUR/USD completed 5 waves up (blue) before falling strongly back to the downside. The bearish momentum could either be a wave A or wave 1 but I choose the latter due to the potential completion of wave 2 (green).

GBP/USD

4 hour



The GBP/USD too completed 5 waves up (dark green) before falling strongly back to the downside. The GU respected the 78.6% Fibonacci level.

1 hour



Wave C (orange) eventually showed an internal 5 wave within wave 5 (pink). After peaking at the 78.6%, the rapid decent is also a first clue that a bearish wave 1 (orange) or wave A has started.

USD/JPY

4 hour



The USD/JPY broke below the support trend line (dotted green) which is an indication of bearish triangle break.

“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

EUR/USD and GBP/USD Head Lower in 5 Bearish Waves

EUR/USD

4 hour



The EUR/USD is still in a bullish angled channel (trend lines) but the bearish price action occurred in 5 waves which is most likely part of wave 1 or wave A (both green). A break of the support trend line (green) would confirm the completion of wave 2/B (green) and the start of wave 3/C.

1 hour



The EUR/USD seems to have completed 5 bearish waves (purple). Whether wave 5 (purple) is completed remains to be seen but a pullback for a wave 2 (brown) remains possible later on as well.

GBP/USD

4 hour



The GBP/USD seems to have completed 5 bearish waves which completed a wave 1 or A (green). The bullish reaction has been in 3 distinct waves so far which is marked as an ABC (orange).

1 hour



The bearish turn at the top could have concluded wave 2/B (green) and the current fall looks to be in 5 waves (pink). A breakout below the support (green) trend line increases the chances of a wave 3 (orange) or C starting.

USD/JPY

4 hour



The USD/JPY count has been changed to reflect the triangle ABCDE (purple) character of the current chart pattern.


“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

EU & GU Break Long-term Support Trend Lines

EUR/USD

4 hour



The EUR/USD broke the support trend line (dotted green) most likely as part of a wave 1 (brown). The bearish price action is probably part of a bigger wave 3 or C (green). A wave 3 would certainly need to break below the bigger weekly support zone (solid green).

1 hour



The EUR/USD completed 5 bearish waves (blue) as part of a large wave 3 (purple) and made one more bearish push yesterday. Wave 5 could still push a bit lower but a retracement is likely with divergence present between the recent bottoms. Price could go back to the level of the previous wave 4 at around 1.120 and later to the long-term moving average at 1.1250.

GBP/USD

4 hour



The GBP/USD also broke the support trend line (dotted green) and the wave 3 (orange) could continue to lower Fibonacci levels.

1 hour



The bearish momentum is clearly visible in the recent trading days. The exact bearish count could still change depending whether price bounces up or breaks lower at the 100% Fib level.

USD/JPY

4 hour



The USD/JPY is in a contacting triangle chart pattern (red and blue trend lines). The completion of the wave E (purple) is confirmed when price pushes below the support trend line.



“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

GU Extends Descend and UJ Prolongs Contracting Wedge

EUR/USD

4 hour



The EUR/USD is showing bullish 4 hour candles which could indicate that wave 1 (brown) has been completed and price is retracing for wave 2 (brown). Price has already hit the 38.2% Fib but on average waves 2 retrace deeply.

1 hour



The EUR/USD had a volatile trading day yesterday with many ups and downs. Ultimately the bulls wrestled control and thereby finished wave 5 (purple) and went for a wave A (purple). At the moment the bearish retracement could be a larger ABC correction.

GBP/USD

4 hour



The GBP/USD kept its bearish momentum yesterday and fell from the 100% Fib target down to the 161.8% level.

1 hour



The purple line indicates the invalidation level of the dark green bearish 5 waves. A break above that most likely means that wave 3 (pink) has been completed.

USD/JPY

4 hour



The USD/JPY seems to have extended its contracting triangle and the wave E (purple).



“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

EURUSD & GPBUSD Build Wave 2 Retracement

EUR/USD

4 hour



The EUR/USD bounced a 3rd time at the support trend line (green) to stay within the boundaries of the wave 2 (brown). There is a chance for price to pullback deeper within that wave 2 towards the 61.8% or the 78.6% but a break above the top (100%) invalidates the 1-2 development. A break below support (green) could initiate the start of wave 3 or C (green).

1 hour



The EUR/USD bearish move last week seems to be a corrective ABC of a bigger wave X (purple).

GBP/USD

4 hour



The GBP/USD is bouncing at the support level of the previous bottom (green). The current bearish move seems to complete 5 waves (pink) which in turn could be part of a larger wave 1 (orange).

1 hour



A break of the bottom could indicate a potential extension of the wave 5 (pink). A break above resistance (red-orange) could indicate the potential for a wave 2 (orange).

USD/JPY

4 hour



The current wave E variant is invalidated if the USD/JPY breaks above the purple trend line. A break below the support line (blue) could initiate the start of wave C (brown).




“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”