Elliott Wave Analysis by Admiral Markets

[Admiral Markets]

Impact of FED’s Rate Hike on Forex Market

EUR/USD

4 hour



The FED's decision to increase interest rates in the US caused lots of volatility in the market. The EUR/USD moved lower eventually during the news but price is still far away from the current year low. For the moment I am not expecting price to break below this year's low (green line) and hence the wave count is now showing a wave X retracement (green).

1 hour



The EUR/USD bearish price action has been slow and therefore the wave count is showing an ABC zigzag rather than a 123 (brown).

GBP/USD

4 hour



The FED's decision to increase interest rates in the US caused lots of volatility in the market but the GBP/USD has managed to make a bearish turn at the top of the channel and is now breaking below support within the downtrend channel.

1 hour



The GBP/USD broke below the support trend line (dotted green) and is moving lower to the targets of wave 5 (blue) of wave 3 (grey).

USD/JPY

4 hour



The FED's decision to increase interest rates in the US caused lots of volatility in the market but in the end a bullish 5 wave pattern emerged (pink). The 5 wave pattern has changed the bearish count from a potential A to the current C (green) of Y (blue).


“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

EUR/USD Build Bullish Bounce at 50% Fibonacci Wave X

EUR/USD

4 hour



The EUR/USD is showing light signals of bearish momentum but so far the downside pressure has been mild. Price could build a larger correction and move towards lower Fibs levels but these levels has a high chance of acting as s support as well.

1 hour



The EUR/USD fell towards the Fibonacci levels of wave X versus wave Y (green) and bounced at the 50% Fib. If price shows bullish momentum then price could start a wave A or wave 1 (brown).

GBP/USD

4 hour



The GBP/USD bearish price action almost reached the bottom of the downtrend channel (green). Price seems to be building a bullish retracement at the 61.8% Fibonacci target, which could be part of a wave 4 correction (blue). Typically waves 4 respect the 23.6, 38.2% and 50% Fib levels after which one more bearish push for wave 5 could bring price to the bottom of the channel.

1 hour



The GBP/USD seems to be building an ABC (grey) bullish zigzag within wave 4 (blue), which is invalidated if price breaks above resistance (red/orange).

USD/JPY

4 hour



The USD/JPY built a bullish rally but price has stopped at the confluence of resistance trend lines around 123.50 (orange/red).


“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

EUR/USD’s Wave X, GBP/USD’s Wave 4, USD/JPY’s Wave B

EUR/USD

4 hour



The EUR/USD seems to be in a larger correction (WXY). A move lower seems unlikely to break the Fibonacci levels of wave X (green).

1 hour



The EUR/USD bullish bounce has so far been slow. If price breaks below support (green), it could fall towards the next 61.8% or 78.6% Fib. If price breaks above resistance (orange), it could rise towards the next resistance (red).

GBP/USD

4 hour



The GBP/USD seems to be in sideways wave 4 (blue). A bearish break could see price fall towards the bottom of the downtrend channel.

1 hour



The GBP/USD seems to be building a bear flag chart pattern correction for a wave 4 (blue). A break below the support (green) could signal the end of wave 4 (blue) and start of wave 5 (blue).

USD/JPY

4 hour



The USD/JPY has strong support and resistance zones nearby. Price is clearly in a sideways zone and lacking the presence of a trend.



“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

USD Marked by Critical S&R Trend Lines

EUR/USD

4 hour



The EUR/USD bounced substantially at the 50% Fibonacci level and could retest the resistance level (red). A bigger bearish correction could still see support at the Fibonacci level.

1 hour



The EUR/USD is in a bullish channel (green) and needs a new break above resistance (orange) before a continuation of wave 3 (blue) is more probable. A break below the channel could change the wave count.

GBP/USD

4 hour



The GBP/USD seems to be in a wave 4 (green) consolidation zone. A bearish break could see price fall towards the bottom of the downtrend channel, which is bullish bounce or bearish break spot.

1 hour



The GBP/USD broke the support trend line (dotted green) but price action has been corrective after the break. If price does not manage to break below the 61.8% target with a good impulse, then the wave 4 (green) could become expanded with a bigger correction.

USD/JPY

4 hour



The USD/JPY remains in a consolidation territory as long as price stays in between support and resistance (red/blue).



“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

EUR/USD’s Bullish Channel versus GBP/USD’s Bearish Channel

EUR/USD

4 hour



The EUR/USD is in an uptrend channel (purple lines) and is climbing towards the targets of wave Y (brown). If price breaks below the channel, then there could be a larger correction of wave X (brown) which could take price down to the next support Fibonacci levels of wave X (brwn) such as 61.8% or 78.6%.

1 hour



The EUR/USD broke above the 2nd resistance trend line (dotted orange) and made one more bullish push as part of wave 3 (blue). Price seems to be in a wave 4 (blue) now, which typically sees support at the 23.6% and 38.2% Fibonacci levels. In this case, the 38.2% Fib also corresponds to the bottom of the channel and the previous wave 4 (green). A break below the channel and 50% Fib will most likely change the wave count to an ABC.

GBP/USD

4 hour



The GBP/USD is approaching the bottom of the downtrend channel (green), which is an area where price can build a bullish bounce or post a bearish break for an impulsive acceleration.

1 hour



The GBP/USD broke a 2nd support trend line (dotted light green) and showed a bearish fall as part of wave 5 (green). Within wave 5 (green) there seems to be a 5 wave extension (blue). A break above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level invalidates the wave 4 (blue).

USD/JPY

4 hour



The USD/JPY remains in a consolidation territory as long as price stays in between support and resistance (red/blue).

1 hour



The USD/JPY seems to be building an ending diagonal (pink) for the 5th wave. A break above the resistance trend line (orange) could see price complete wave A (blue) and retrace versus the Fibonacci levels of wave B (blue).


“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

Multiple ABC Corrections Visible in Forex Market

EUR/USD

4 hour



The EUR/USD respected the support trend line (purple) and price showed a bullish bounce. For the moment price is still in a wave Y (brown) unless the EUR/USD breaks below it.

1 hour




The EUR/USD made a deep retracement to the 61.8%, which is uncommon for 4th waves. Price did not cross into the price territory of wave (blue) before making a bounce, so the current wave count is showing a wave 5 (blue).

GBP/USD

4 hour



The GBP/USD reached the bottom of the downtrend channel (green) and has so far shown a bullish bounce. This could indicate the end of wave 5 and start of wave 4 (blue).

1 hour



The GBP/USD made one more bearish move as part of the expected 5th wave (green). Price has however bounced strongly at the support trend line (green), which could indicate the completion of wave 5 and the start of a bigger ABC correction (green).

USD/JPY

4 hour



The USD/JPY remains in a consolidation territory as long as price stays in between support and resistance (red/blue).

1 hour



The USD/JPY wave B correction was very mild before price broke below the support trend line (dotted green).



“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

GBPUSD & USDJPY Break Trend Lines and Expand Corrections

EUR/USD

4 hour



The EUR/USD is in a corrective sideways zone marked by support (green) and resistance (red).

1 hour



The EUR/USD has a support (green) and resistance (orange) trend line nearby. A break above resistance could see price continue higher as part of wave 5 (blue).

GBP/USD

4 hour



The GBP/USD could be building an ABC (pink) correction within a potential wave 4 (blue).

1 hour



The GBP/USD broke above resistance (dotted orange) as part of a bigger bullish bounce.

USD/JPY

4 hour



The USD/JPY remains in a consolidation territory as long as price stays in between support and resistance (red/blue). In the meantime price is breaking below a support trend line (dotted green) which seems to be occurring due to an ABC zigzag (blue).

1 hour



The USD/JPY is in a downtrend channel after breaking support. Price seems to be in a bearish momentum, which is probably a wave 3 (green).


“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

EUR/USD Breaks Trend Line during Wave 5

EUR/USD

4 hour



The EUR/USD could be building an ABC (purple) but it has a strong resistance layer (red) above it. A break below support (lighter green) would change the current wave count.

1 hour



The EUR/USD could be in the final 5th wave (green) of a bigger ABC bullish zigzag (purple).

GBP/USD

4 hour



The GBP/USD corrected up to the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of wave 4 (blue). Price could correct to a higher Fib before completing wave 4.

1 hour



The GBP/USD is most likely expanding the corrective zone via a WXY (pink). A bearish break below support (light green) could change that scenario, although a break below the bottom of the channel (dark green) would be a stronger bearish signal.

USD/JPY

4 hour



The USD/JPY broke below a support trend line (dotted green) but price still has a strong support zone (blue lines) which could stop the bearish breakout.

1 hour



The USD/JPY seems to have completed the wave 3 (green) at the bottom and a wave 4 at the top of the downtrend channel.


“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

EUR/USD Respects 50% Fibonacci Level of Wave B

EUR/USD

4 hour



The EUR/USD is most likely in an ABC (purple) zigzag unless breaks below the horizontal support (lighter green).

1 hour



The EUR/USD was indeed in the final 5th wave (green). Price has in the meantime pulled back to the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the larger potential ABC zigzag (purple).

GBP/USD

4 hour



The GBP/USD corrected up to the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of wave 4 (blue), which could have already completed the correction. However, waves 4 are typically very long and often have large consolidations. This bearish price action could still turn out to be part of wave 4, unless price manages to continue its bearish impulse below the support of the downtrend channel (green).

1 hour



The GBP/USD broke below the key support trend line (green), which changed the wave structure to a bearish impulse. Price is most likely in a wave 4 (green), unless price breaks above the 61.8% Fibonacci level. In that case, the wave count will be changed to a WXY within wave 4.

USD/JPY

4 hour



The USD/JPY is moving sideways and has multiple support and resistance layers nearby.

1 hour



The USD/JPY seems to have expanded the wave 4 (green) and price is now currently in a contracting triangle chart pattern.



“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

GBP/USD Arrives at Bottom of Downtrend Channel

EUR/USD

4 hour



The EUR/USD is most likely in a wave B of a larger ABC (purple) zigzag. The wave count is invalidated if price breaks below the horizontal support (lighter green).

1 hour



The EUR/USD is respecting the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of wave B (purple). A break out above or below sees new support and resistance levels emerge.

GBP/USD

4 hour



The GBP/USD is at the bottom of the downtrend channel, which could be used to enlarge the wave 4 (blue) correction. If price manages to break below the support (green), then a wave 3 (pink) continuation could occur.

1 hour



The GBP/USD is most likely in a wave 4 (green), unless price breaks above the 61.8% Fibonacci level. In that case, the wave count will be changed to a WXY within wave 4.

USD/JPY

4 hour



The USD/JPY is moving sideways and has multiple support and resistance layers nearby.

1 hour



The USD/JPY seems to be in an expanded wave 4 (green) unless price breaks above the resistance.




“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”