Elliott Wave Analysis by Admiral Markets

[Admiral Markets]

US Dollar Starts with Weakness in 2016

EUR/USD

4 hour



The EUR/USD is most likely in a wave B of a larger ABC (purple) zigzag. The wave count is invalidated if price breaks below the horizontal support (lighter green).

1 hour



The EUR/USD made a bearish break below the support trend line (dotted green) as part of a 5th wave (green), which could potential complete a wave C (blue) of a wave B (purple). Price has bounced at the 78.6% Fib and a break below the 100% mark invalidates this wave count.

GBP/USD

4 hour



The GBP/USD is attempting to break below the downtrend channel, which could indicate wave 3 (pink) continuation.

1 hour



The GBP/USD broke below the support trend line (dotted green), which confirmed the completion of a shallow wave 4 (green) at the 50% Fibonacci level. Price has now moved down lower towards the Fibonacci targets of wave 5 (green).

USD/JPY

4 hour



The USD/JPY is showing signs of bearish trend continuation as price keeps pushing to make lower lows. The blue support levels are support levels from the daily chart.

1 hour



The USD/JPY has completed a shallow wave 4 (green) correction before breaking the support (blue) trend line and continuing lower as part of wave 5.


“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

EURUSD & GBPUSD Decline Sharply after Bullish Rally

EUR/USD

4 hour



The EUR/USD is expanding the wave X (brown) correction via WXY's (blue/purple).

1 hour



Yesterday the EUR/USD saw a bullish rally (wave X green) that was unable to break above resistance (orange). For the moment a bearish zigzag (orange) seems possible. The invalidation level is the trend line and 100% Fibonacci level.

GBP/USD

4 hour



The GBP/USD downtrend channel (red/green) is accelerating the bearish structure of the Cable. Price can keep falling towards the Fibonacci targets of wave 5 (blue) as long as price stays below the resistance trend line (red).

1 hour



The GBP/USD retested the resistance Fibonacci levels and trend lines and showed a bearish bounce as part of the wave 4 (pink). The subsequent price decline saw price move towards the 61.8% Fibonacci target. Price could perhaps extend the downtrend, unless it manages to break above resistance.

USD/JPY

4 hour



The USD/JPY has reached the bottom of the consolidation zone (blues) and has found support for the moment. The bounce also occurred at the 78.6% target, and if price manages to continue with its downtrend then the next target is the 100% Fibonacci level.

1 hour



The USD/JPY could build one more bearish fall as part of wave 4-5 (pink). The invalidation level is the bottom of wave 1 (pink) which is at 120.


“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

EUR/USD Bullish Bounce Potential at 61.8% or 78.6% Fibonacci

EUR/USD

4 hour



The EUR/USD broke below the 50% Fibonacci retracement level and fell towards the 61.8% Fib of wave X (brown). A potential break below the 61.8% Fib could price see price fall towards the 78.6% whereas a potential rally could indicate the completion of wave X.

1 hour



The EUR/USD completed a wave B (orange) yesterday before building a new bearish impulsive as wave C (orange). Price could now be making a small correction as part of wave 4 (pink) before falling for wave 5 (pink). The wave 4 structure is not valid anymore if price managed to break above the bottom of wave 1 (red).

GBP/USD

4 hour


The GBP/USD wave count is vulnerable to change in the upcoming week(s) but for the moment the wave structure is indicating a wave 5 (blue) within the downtrend.

1 hour



The GBP/USD would need to break below the support trend line (green) before an expansion of wave 3 (green) is possible.

USD/JPY

4 hour



The USD/JPY managed to continue with its downtrend to the next target at the 100% Fibonacci level. Price remains in the wider support zone indicated by the blue horizontal lines.

1 hour



The USD/JPY must stay below the resistance trend line (brown) for the downtrend channel to stay relevant. A break above it could see price build a bigger momentum rally up to the orange trend line.



“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

EUR/USD Bounce at Fibs and USD/JPY Break of Support

EUR/USD

4 hour



The EUR/USD showed a bullish bounce at the 61.8%, which could complete wave X (brown) depending on whether price can break above resistance (orange).

1 hour



The EUR/USD completed wave 5 (pink) at double bottom before making an impulsive bullish rally. The speed of price is suggesting a 123 wave development (green).

GBP/USD

4 hour



The GBP/USD is at the bottom of the downtrend channel (green/red), which in itself is a bullish bounce or bearish break spot. At 1.4566 is a big daily bottom which could act as support.

1 hour



The GBP/USD posted an ending diagonal formation via the light green waves. Price was not able to break below the support and is now testing the inner resistance (orange).

USD/JPY

4 hour



The USD/JPY is attempting to break below the horizontal support levels (blue dotted). If price stays below resistance (orange), then it continue the downtrend and fall towards the next Fibonacci targets or support levels (blue).

1 hour



The USD/JPY keeps posting lower lows and seems to be in a wave 5 (pink) of a larger wave 3 (green). The ABC (blue) formation is vulnerable to be changed into a 123 if price keeps pushing lower and breaks below the 61.8% target.



“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

All Major Forex Pairs Show Large Price Swings

EUR/USD

4 hour



The EUR/USD bullish bounce continued all the way to the resistance trend line (orange), which caused price to make a bearish bounce. The bullish rally could be part of larger wave A (purple), which is confirmed with a break of resistance. A break of support (green) could see price fall towards the 78.6% Fibonacci level.

1 hour



The EUR/USD is building a potential 5 wave structure (blue). The 5 wave development is invalidated if price breaks below the top of wave 1 (green line). A bounce at the wave 4 Fibs could see price rally for a wave 5.

GBP/USD

4 hour



The GBP/USD broke below the downtrend channel and the daily bottom but made a bullish retracement near the 1.45 round number. The bearishness seems to be part of wave 5 (blue).

1 hour



Within wave 5 (blue) the GBP/USD seems to have completed 5 bearish waves (green/pink). The downtrend could expand with for instance the waves 5 leading towards a larger wave 1 (purple). For the moment a bullish momentum is visible, which could lead towards an ABC (pink) correction within potential wave 2 (purple).

USD/JPY

4 hour



The USD/JPY downtrend remains strong as long as price remains below the resistance trend line (orange).

1 hour



The USD/JPY seems to have completed a wave 5 (pink) within wave 3 (green) and is now building a corrective wave 4 (green). The correction is unfolding via an ABC (pink) correction.



“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

GBP/USD and USD/JPY Downtrends Display Lower Lows

EUR/USD

4 hour



The EUR/USD showed a bullish bounce as it retraced lower, which seems likely to be a wave B (purple). Price is probably in wave C (purple) is now testing the resistance trend line (orange).

1 hour



The EUR/USD could be making a 5 wave pattern (blue) within wave C (purple).

GBP/USD

4 hour



The GBP/USD downtrend is accelerating within the wave 5's (pink/blue) and heading lower towards Fibonacci targets.

1 hour



The GBP/USD is most likely in a wave 4 or 5 (blue) unless price breaks above the bottom of wave 1 (blue).

USD/JPY

4 hour



The USD/JPY downtrend remains strong as long as price remains below the resistance trend line (orange). Price is approaching new support levels (blue) from a daily chart.

1 hour



The USD/JPY completed an ABC (pink) correction within wave 4 (green) and is now heading lower within wave 5.


“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

EURUSD’s Mini Bullish Channel in Larger Contracting Triangle

EUR/USD

4 hour



The EUR/USD is building a triangle chart pattern which are clearly marked by the orange resistance and green support trend lines.

1 hour



The EUR/USD retraced deeply and fell towards the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level. A deep pullback is typical for a wave 1-2 scenario, which could be the wave structure for the EURUSD within a wave C (purple).

GBP/USD

4 hour



The GBP/USD downtrend is accelerating within the wave 5's (pink/blue) and heading lower towards Fibonacci targets. A break beyond the 61.8% Fibonacci target increases the chances of the wave C (purple) being replaced by a wave 3.

1 hour



The GBP/USD made a deep retracement for wave 4 (blue) but did respect the bottom of wave 1 (blue). An alternative wave count could be a wave orange 1-2 (instead of 3-4).

USD/JPY

4 hour



The USD/JPY downtrend remains strong as long as price remains below the resistance trend line (orange). Price is approaching new support levels (blue) from a daily chart.

1 hour



The USD/JPY completed an ABC (orange) correction within wave 2 (pink) and is now near the top of the downtrend channel (red) and the inner support of the correction (green).



“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

Major Currency Pairs Initiate ABC Zigzag Corrections

EUR/USD

4 hour



The EUR/USD remains in a narrow price range since the beginning of December. A bearish breakout below support (green) could see an expansion of wave X (brown) whereas a bullish breakout above resistance (orange) could see a continuation of wave C (purple).

1 hour



The EUR/USD continued its bearish retracement yesterday without breaking the bottom of wave B (purple). A break below that bottom (green) invalidates the current wave 1-2 (blue) whereas a break above resistance (yellow) could see price head to the Fibonacci targets of wave 3 (blue).

GBP/USD

4 hour



The GBP/USD broke the bottom of the downtrend channel and made yet another lower low. Price has however reached the 61.8% Fibonacci target which could cause a retracement.

1 hour



The GBP/USD seems to have completed multiple 5th waves with the recent lower low. However, in a strong trend price can build extensions that are push the trend further, so an alternative wave count could be a wave 1-2 (orange) for instance. For the moment an ABC correction (blue) seems to be the path of least resistance.

USD/JPY

4 hour



The USD/JPY broke above the resistance trend line (dotted red) after building 5 waves and approaching new support levels (blue) from a daily chart. This could cause price to make a bullish bounce, which seems best explained by a potential wave WXY (green) formation.

1 hour



The USD/JPY seems to have completed the AB part of a larger bullish ABC zigzag (brown).



“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

GBP/USD Breaks Support and Accelerates Bearish Trend

EUR/USD

4 hour



The EUR/USD completed a bullish ABC (green) zigzag which pushed through resistance (orange) without breaking it. Price is now making a bearish correction but as long as price stays above the trend line support (green), then an expansion of a wave WXY (blue) seems the most likely.

1 hour



The EUR/USD could be making an ABC bearish zigzag (green) back to support (green).

GBP/USD

4 hour



The GBP/USD broke below the large sideways zone (dotted green) and posted a new lower low within the large downtrend channel (green/red). Price has reached the 78.6% Fibonacci target and has the potential to fall towards the next Fib levels.

1 hour



The bearish impulse seems to be a wave 3 (grey), which means that a wave 4 and 5 (grey) potentially remain to be completed. Any wave extensions could keep the downtrend longer intact as well.

USD/JPY

4 hour



The USD/JPY is near the daily support levels (blue), which could cause price to show a bullish bounce. If price does bounce then this could confirm the development of a wave X (brown).

1 hour



The USD/JPY seems to be bouncing at support (green) after completing a bearish ABC (blue) zigzag.



“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

EUR/USD & USD/JPY Build Classical Triangle Chart Patterns

EUR/USD

4 hour



The EUR/USD seems to be building a bearish correction as part of a wave X (blue). As long as price stays above the trend line support (green), then an expansion of a wave WXY (blue) seems the most likely scenario.

1 hour



The EUR/USD seems to have completed an ABC bearish zigzag (green) back to support (green). A break below support could see price fall towards the Fibonacci levels. A break above resistance (red/orange) could see price start a wave Y (of blue).

GBP/USD

4 hour



The GBP/USD has again reached the bottom of the downtrend channel. Price has also hit the 78.6% Fibonacci target and has the potential to fall towards the next Fib levels.

1 hour



The Cable respected the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of wave 4 (grey) and made a bearish turn. Price could face support at the trend line and Fib targets.

USD/JPY

4 hour



The USD/JPY is near the daily support levels (blue), which could cause price to show a bullish bounce. If price does break the resistance trend line (orange), then this could confirm the continuation of a wave Y (brown).

1 hour



The USD/JPY seems to be building a large corrective chart pattern when viewing the trend lines (orange/green).



“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”