Elliott Wave Analysis by Admiral Markets

[Admiral Markets]

Impact of massive bullish breaks on currency waves

EUR/USD

4 hour



The EUR/USD showed strong bullish momentum yesterday as price broke above the resistance levels (dotted lines). The wave count of the previous days indicated the likelihood of a bullish ABC zigzag (green). The break through the red dotted trend line also confirms that the wave C (brown) of wave X (green) was a correct wave count and invalidates the wave 3 (grey), which will be removed in future analysis.

1 hour



The EUR/USD seems to have completed an impulsive wave 3 (orange) and is now building a triangle as part of a wave 4. The wave 4 could make a retracement but typically will stop around the 38.2% Fibonacci level.

GBP/USD

4 hour



The GBP/USD is also showing bullish momentum similar to that of the EUR/USD. Also in this case an expected ABC zigzag (pink) unfolded to enlarge the correction of the wave 4 (purple). Price (almost) hit the 38.2% Fibonacci level of wave 4, which could be a bearish bouncing spot. The maximum retracement I would expect for a wave 4 is the 50% Fib.

1 hour



The GBP/USD 1 hour is unclear at the moment whether wave C (pink) is completed or will still push higher. There could be one more bullish push remaining similar to the 5 wave (orange) on the EUR/USD. The alternative is an ABC (blue) correction.

USD/JPY

4 hour



The USD/JPY broke the support trend line (green) and is moving down lower quickly to retest the bottoms (blue).

1 hour



The USD/JPY has continued with bearish momentum and could now be in a wave 4 (pink) correction.




“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

Forex majors reach key Fibonacci levels

EUR/USD

4 hour



The EUR/USD has reached the 100% Fibonacci target of wave C vs. A (green). If price corrects with a shallow retracement and shows a contracting formation, then the wave count will most likely change to a 12345 instead of the current ABC.

1 hour



Within the wave C (green) the EUR/USD could still have 1 more bullish continuation remaining if price can break above resistance. Yesterday the EUR/USD bounced off a shallow Fib level which confirmed the wave 4 (orange).

GBP/USD

4 hour



The GBP/USD bullish momentum has (almost) hit the 38.2% Fibonacci level of wave 4, which could be a bearish bouncing spot. Price might use the support trend line (green) to make one more small bullish bounce and reach 1.47. The entire wave 4 (purple) does not have to be completed and will depend on how impulsively price in the upcoming days.

1 hour



The GBP/USD 1 hour is unclear at the moment whether wave C (pink) is completed or will still push higher. There could be one more bullish push remaining similar to complete wave 5 (green).

USD/JPY

4 hour



The USD/JPY is near the strong horizontal support levels (blue), which could cause price to make a bullish bounce. The ABC (green) wave count will change to a 123 if price breaks below the support or if price builds a shallow retracement such as a contracting triangle.

1 hour



The USD/JPY could be close to completing the 5th wave (pink), although price could still fall to hit the support levels (blue).



“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

EUR/USD builds both bullish and bearish ABC zigzags

EUR/USD

4 hour



The EUR/USD has completed a bullish ABC (green) zigzag but the entire correction could be prolonged via a WXY (blue). This wave count is invalidated when price breaks below the support trend line (green).

1 hour



The EUR/USD is making a potential bearish ABC (green) correction within wave X (blue).

GBP/USD

4 hour



The GBP/USD has made a bearish turn at the 38.2% Fibonacci level of wave 4 (purple). Price might expand the entire bullish correction via a WXY (blue) towards the 50% Fibonacci level. This wave count is invalidated when price breaks below the support trend line (green).

1 hour



The GBP/USD is making a potential bearish WXY (pink) correction within wave X (blue).

USD/JPY

4 hour



The USD/JPY has made a bullish bounce at the horizontal support levels (blue). The ABC (green) wave count is most likely building a retracement as part of wave X (blue).

1 hour



The USD/JPY is building an ABC (green) zigzag within the wave X (blue).




“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

USD/JPY crashes through floor by breaking long-term support

EUR/USD

4 hour



The EUR/USD has made a bullish bounce at the 38.2% Fibonacci level and is now resting the top (red). A break above resistance confirms the development of a wave A (green), whereas a bearish bounce could price retest the wave X (blue) Fibonacci levels. This wave count is invalidated when price breaks below the support trend line (green).

1 hour



The EUR/USD is marked as a wave 1 (green) but is dependent on how price reacts at resistance and support levels (bounce or break).

GBP/USD

4 hour



The GBP/USD has reached the 50% Fibonacci level of wave X (blue), which could be a bullish turning spot. A break above the resistance trend line (orange) is needed before the completion of wave X can be confirmed because otherwise price might fall towards lower Fib levels. This wave count is invalidated when price breaks below the support trend line (green).

1 hour



The GBP/USD is probably building another ABC bearish zigzag pattern (green) unless price manages to break out of the bearish channel (dark green & orange).

USD/JPY

4 hour



The USD/JPY has broken the long-term daily and weekly horizontal support levels (dotted blue). The bullish bounce for wave X (brown) retraced to a very shallow 23.6% Fibonacci level before continuing down lower and breaking support.

1 hour



The USD/JPY is either building an ABC (light green) zigzag or a 123 (green) within a wave A (blue), which will depend on whether price can reach the Fibonacci targets.



“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

EUR/USD breaks resistance, USD/JPY pauses at Fibs

EUR/USD

4 hour



The EUR/USD completed the wave X (blue) and broke above resistance levels (dotted red) yesterday. It is now at the 61.8% Fibonacci target, which is a break or bounce spot. A bullish continuation could price head towards the next Fibonacci target and daily resistance (red).

1 hour



The EUR/USD seems to be in a wave 4 (orange) now after completing the first 3 legs earlier this week. Price cannot retrace deeper than the 50% Fibonacci without invalidating the current wave count.

GBP/USD

4 hour



The GBP/USD is currently in a contracting triangle (orange/green). The Cable respected the 50% Fibonacci level of wave X (blue), but if price makes a bearish turn then the 61.8% and 78.6% retracements still represent support levels. This wave count is invalidated when price breaks below the support trend line (green).

1 hour



The GBP/USD break above the resistance trend line (orange) would change the current bearish wave count to a bullish one. A break above resistance confirms the completion of wave X (blue) at the most recent bottom. A bearish bounce could see price fall towards the Fibonacci targets and trend lines (greens), which represent support levels.

USD/JPY

4 hour



The USD/JPY has broken the long-term daily and weekly horizontal support levels (dotted blue). Price has reached Fibonacci levels which have caused price to stall. A break below the Fib levels could see price fall further lower. A bounce at the Fibonacci levels could indicate a potential completion of wave B.

1 hour



The USD/JPY is building a contracting triangle (trend lines) in between the broken support and Fibonacci target.




“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

USD/JPY continues downtrend, GBP/USD and EUR/USD show struggle

EUR/USD

4 hour



The EUR/USD made a bullish bounce at the support trend line (green). Price is in bullish territory as long as price stays above that support level. Main target is the resistance line (red).

1 hour



The EUR/USD wave 4 as shown yesterday was invalidated when price retraced deeply. Eventually price did make a bullish bounce but the wave count has been changed to show 2 ABCs (orange) within a wider WXY (green).

GBP/USD

4 hour



The GBP/USD broke the resistance (orange dotted) of contracting triangle. Price is in a bullish territory as long as the Cable manages to stay above the support trend line.

1 hour



The GBP/USD has been move up and down in a very choppy manner. A break above or below trend lines is needed before price can escape the consolidation pattern.

USD/JPY

4 hour



The USD/JPY stayed below the broken the long-term daily and weekly horizontal support levels (dotted blue), after which price managed to break below the 100% and 23.6% Fib levels. The USD/JPY is now heading towards lower targets.

1 hour



The USD/JPY broke the support (dotted green) of the contracting triangle and has moved down substantially lower. Price is now approaching potential targets (see Fib levels).



“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

ABC zigzag patterns connect waves in FX market

EUR/USD

4 hour



The EUR/USD respected the resistance trend line (orange) and is forming a minor rising wedge chart pattern (orange/green). Price still has some space left before it hits major horizontal resistance (red).

1 hour



The EUR/USD seems to be building an ABC bullish zigzag (orange). A break below the bottom (100%) level invalidates the current wave outlook.

GBP/USD

4 hour



The GBP/USD is back into contracting triangle chart pattern. Price is in a bullish retracement territory as long as the Cable manages to stay above the support trend lines (green). This is probably part of larger wave 4 (purple), which indicates a pause within the downtrend.

1 hour



The GBP/USD choppiness continues as price retested the support trend line (green). A break above the resistance trend line (orange) would signal that a bullish continuation of wave Y (blue) is likely. A bearish breakout would invalidate the ABC (green) wave count.

USD/JPY

4 hour



The USD/JPY continued to move lower yesterday and eventually reached the 127.2% Fibonacci target at 111 before a correction became visible. Price remains in a downtrend as long as price remains below resistance (orange).

1 hour



The USD/JPY has retraced back to the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. A break below support (green) could see price continue with a bearish ABC (green).




“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

EURUSD and GBPUSD bearish break with bullish bounce

EUR/USD

4 hour

The EUR/USD approached the 50% Fibonacci level. A break above resistance could see build a potential breakout. If it fails, then a bigger bearish retracement could commence.

1 hour

The resistance trend line (orange) could behave a bounce or break spot.

GBP/USD

4 hour

The GBP/USD respected the 78.6% Fibonacci level. Price needs to break resistance trend line (orange) before the chances of a wave Y (blue) developing increase.

1 hour

A break below the 100% Fibonacci level invalidates the wave count.

USD/JPY

4 hour

The USD/JPY broke support (dotted green) but is not showing a lot of momentum at the moment.

1 hour

Original material is provided by Admiral Markets

 

[Admiral Markets]

Forex pairs build sturdy contracting triangles

EUR/USD

4 hour



The EUR/USD has been going sideways during the last week and has not been able to break below the 50% Fibonacci level. A break above resistance could see price build a potential breakout. If it fails, then a bigger bearish retracement could commence towards the 61.8% Fibonacci level.

1 hour



The EUR/USD is showing a consolidation zone on the 1 hour chart.

GBP/USD

4 hour



The GBP/USD respected the trend line (green) and made a bullish bounce. Price is now in a contracting triangle with support (green) and resistance (orange) nearby.

1 hour



The GBP/USD is showing very choppy price action. The trend lines mark the boundaries of the contracting triangle pattern.

USD/JPY

4 hour



The USD/JPY bearish price action is moving down lower at a slow angle. A break above resistance (red) could indicate a chance for an ABC (purple) correction. A break below support (green) could price move further down towards the Fibonacci level.

1 hour



The USD/JPY has support and resistance trend lines nearby that mark potential boundaries of the triangle pattern.



“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

Major currency pairs move towards Fibonacci targets

EUR/USD

4 hour



The EUR/USD continued its bearish momentum yesterday but still remains above support levels like the Fibonacci retracements and trend line. This zone could turn out to be a zone where price will show a bullish bounce (if it breaks above resistance) or a bearish break (if it breaks below support).

1 hour



The EUR/USD could be in a wave 4 (orange) as long as price does not go above the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level, which is the invalidation spot, before showing a new lower low.

GBP/USD

4 hour



The GBP/USD wave count has been changed to reflect yesterday's break below the support trend line (dotted green). Price fell towards the next support (solid green), which is the previous bottom. A break below the bottom could indicate more bearishness as a potential part of wave 3 (pink).

1 hour



The GBP/USD is showing very choppy price action. The trend lines mark the boundaries of the contracting triangle pattern.

USD/JPY

4 hour



The USD/JPY break below support (green) could see price move further down towards the Fibonacci levels.

1 hour



The USD/JPY could be in a wave 1-2 (orange) of the bigger wave C (pink). The wave count is invalid if price manages to break above the 100% Fibonacci level.



“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”