Elliott Wave Analysis by Admiral Markets

[Admiral Markets]

Further GBP weakness expected by Fibs and wave structure

GBP/USD

4 hour



The GBP/USD took a strong hit and made a nose dive from 1.50 to 1.32 when the Brexit results were released. The first target of the wave C (green) has been hit and reached but further bearish pressure could mean an extension to the next Fibonacci 127.2% target at 1.25.

1 hour



The GBP/USD seems to building a 5 wave structure (blue) within the wave 5 of the 4 hour chart. Wave 4 (blue) respected the 50% Fibonacci level. A push above the 78.6% invalidates the wave 4. A break below the support trend line (green) could start the wave 5 (blue). A larger wave 4 consolidation where price goes sideways is also possible.

EUR/USD

4 hour



The EUR/USD broke the support trend lines (dotted) upon the British electorate voting for Brexit last week. Price tumbled from 1.14 to 1.09 before retracing back to the 50%. The most likely wave count would suggest a wave 1-2 (green) within a wave 5 (purple) breakout. The wave 5 becomes invalidated if price were to break above the 100% Fibonacci level.

1 hour



The EUR/USD seems to be building a bullish zigzag (brown) correction within wave 2 (green). A break of the support trend line (green) could mark the completion of that wave 2.

USD/JPY

4 hour



The USD/JPY has moved down towards and bounced at the 50% Fibonacci level. Price could bounce at this Fib or fall towards the 61.8%.

1 hour



The USD/JPY is building a bullish zigzag (pink) within wave B (green).




“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

Lower low on GBP/USD challenges 1.30 round level

EUR/USD

4 hour



The EUR/USD did not manage to break the support trend line (green) and could now retrace to higher Fibonacci resistance. The most likely wave count would suggest a wave 1-2 (green) within a wave 5 (purple) breakout. The wave 1-2 becomes invalidated if price were to break above the 100% Fibonacci level.

1 hour



The EUR/USD broke a steep resistance trend line (dotted red), which could mark the start of a wave C (brown) within wave 2 (green).

GBP/USD

4 hour



The GBP/USD built a new lower low close to the psychological round 1.30 level. A break below the round level support could see further bearish pressure to the next Fibonacci 127.2% target at 1.25.

1 hour



The GBP/USD seems to be extending its correction of wave 4 (blue) via an ABC (pink). A break below the 138.2% invalidates wave B (pink) and makes a downtrend continuation likely. The wave 4 (blue) wave count is invalidated if price were to break above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.

USD/JPY

4 hour



The USD/JPY is at the bottom of a downtrend channel which could as a support level. Price will need to break above the 100% Fib level before waves Y (blue/brown) can be considered completed.

1 hour



The USD/JPY is building a consolidation zone marked by support (green) and resistance (red). A bullish ABC zigzag (pink) is most likely developing within wave B (green).


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[Admiral Markets]

Forex market sees ‘dead cat’ bounce initiate wave-C zigzag

EUR/USD

4 hour



The EUR/USD bearish momentum is most likely a wave 1-2 (green). A break above the 100% level of wave 2vs1 invalidates this wave structure. A break below the support (green) could see price fall towards the Fibonacci targets of wave 5 vs 1+3 and horizontal bottoms (green).

1 hour



The EUR/USD is in a contracting triangle (red/green). A bullish break should see resistance at the Fibonacci confluence.

GBP/USD

4 hour



The GBP/USD is building a consolidation at the 100% Fibonacci target as the political discussions between the EU and the UK around Brexit continue. A minor rally within such a strong trend is often called a 'dead cat' bounce, which indicates the lack of strength such a correction has. A break below support could see price continue with its bearish momentum towards the next Fibonacci targets.

1 hour



A GBP/USD bullish break should see resistance at the Fibonacci levels of wave 4 (blue) and wave C (pink).

USD/JPY

4 hour



The USD/JPY is at the bottom of a downtrend channel which could act as a support level. Price will need to break above the 100% Fib level before waves Y (blue/brown) can be considered completed.

1 hour



The USD/JPY stopped at the 50% Fibonacci resistance level. A bullish ABC zigzag (pink) is most likely developing within wave B (green).



“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

Rising wedges signal completion of wave-C zigzag in Forex

EUR/USD

4 hour



The EUR/USD has broken long-term support levels (dotted green) but still has important and decisive horizontals levels to break before a wave 5 (blue) of wave C (purple) can be confirmed. For the moment a wave 1-2 (green) structure makes the most sense considering the bearish momentum in wave 1 and the corrective reaction in wave 2.

1 hour



The EUR/USD has built a bullish channel (orange/green) after breaking several resistance levels (dotted lines). All in all the angle of this channel remains shallow and hence corrective and looks like a rising wedge chart pattern. A break above the channel should see price stop at the Fibonacci retracement levels whereas a break below the support (green) should spark the breakout if the bears can keep control with good candle closes near the low.

GBP/USD

4 hour



The GBP/USD is building a bear flag (green lines) chart pattern, which has bearish implications and expects a continuation of the downtrend. A break below support could see price continue with its bearish momentum towards the next Fibonacci target.

1 hour



A GBP/USD break above the channel should see price stop at the Fibonacci retracement levels whereas a break below the support (green) should spark the breakout if the bears can keep control with good candle closes near the low.

USD/JPY

4 hour



The USD/JPY is behaving correctively as it moves away from the bottom of the downtrend channel. This makes a wave B (green) the most likely scenario at the moment. Price would need to break above the 100% Fib level before waves Y (blue/brown) can be considered completed.

1 hour



The USD/JPY is building a rising wedge (red/green) chart pattern, which has bearish implications. A break above the pattern should see price stop at the Fibonacci retracement levels whereas a break below the support (green) should spark the breakout if the bears can keep control with good candle closes near the low.



“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

EUR/USD, GBP/USD breakout below bearish chart patterns

EUR/USD

4 hour



The EUR/USD made a bearish turn at the 50% Fibonacci level of wave 2 (green) before breaking the support trend line (green) of the rising wedge chart pattern (green/orange lines). The bearish breakout is aligned with the bearish momentum (wave 1 green) and could therefore be the start of a wave 3 (green).

1 hour



The EUR/USD shows that price is most likely making a hook back to the broken support trend line (dotted green). A break below the wave 1 (brown) bottom and 1.10 round level will confirm the continuation of waves 3 (brown/green).

GBP/USD

4 hour



The GBP/USD has pushed with a strong 4 hour candle below the bear flag (green line) chart pattern. The breakout will most likely have bearish implications and price could continue with its bearish momentum towards the next Fibonacci target.

1 hour



A GBP/USD break below the bottom of wave 1 (green) and the 1.32 round level will confirm the continuation of waves 3 (brown/green). A break above the 100% Fib level invalidates wave 1-2 (green).

USD/JPY

4 hour



The USD/JPY is behaving correctively as it moves away from the bottom of the downtrend channel. This makes a wave B (green) the most likely scenario at the moment. Price would need to break above the 100% Fib level before waves Y (blue/brown) can be considered completed.

1 hour



The USD/JPY is building a channel (red/green lines). A break above the pattern should see price stop at the Fibonacci retracement levels whereas a break below the support (green) should spark the breakout if the bears can keep control with good candle closes near the low.



“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

EUR/USD, GBP/USD corrective channels control price action landscape

EUR/USD

4 hour



The EUR/USD is expanding the wave 2 (green) correction via a WXY (brown). A bearish breakout could lead to a continuation of the bearish momentum (wave 1 green) and could therefore be the start of a wave 3 (green).

1 hour



The EUR/USD is building a bear flag chart pattern (orange/green lines). The Fibonacci levels of wave '2 vs 1' should act as resistance but a break above the 100% level invalidates the current wave structure.

GBP/USD

4 hour



The GBP/USD is building a consolidation at the 100% Fibonacci target of wave 'C vs A'. A break below the support trend line (green) could see price continue with its bearish momentum towards the next 127.2% Fibonacci target.

1 hour



A GBP/USD is showing lack of bullish initiative so far as price action moves sideways in a bear flag chart pattern (green/red lines). For the moment a wave 1-2 (green/pink) explains the wave structure the best unless price breaks above the red trend line, which would most likely indicate an expansion of the wave 4 (blue).

USD/JPY

4 hour



The USD/JPY is behaving correctively as it moves away from the bottom of the downtrend channel. This makes a wave B (green) the most likely scenario at the moment. Price would need to break above the 100% Fib level before waves Y (blue/brown) can be considered completed.

1 hour



The USD/JPY is building a channel (red/green lines). A break above the pattern should see price stop at the Fibonacci retracement levels whereas a break below the support (green) should spark the breakout if the bears can keep control with good candle closes near the low.




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[Admiral Markets]

Will EUR/USD, GBP/USD follow the example of USD/JPY breakout?

EUR/USD

4 hour



The EUR/USD is respecting the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of wave 2 (brown). A bearish breakout below the support (light green) of the bull flag chart pattern could spark the start of a wave 3 (brown) as seen on the USD/JPY as well earlier this week. A bullish push still faces major opposition from the other Fibonacci resistance levels of wave '2 vs 1'.

1 hour



The EUR/USD is building a triangle chart pattern (light green & red) within the bear flag pattern (orange/green lines). The breakout of the triangle, however, quickly encounters support and resistance from the bear flag.

GBP/USD

4 hour



The GBP/USD is still building a consolidation at the 100% Fibonacci target of wave 'C vs A'. Strong break below the support trend line (green) could see price continue with its bearish momentum towards the next 127.2% Fibonacci target.

1 hour



The GBP/USD keeps moving sideways as the bear flag chart pattern (green/red lines) becomes larger and larger. For the moment a wave 1-2 (green/pink) explains the wave structure the best unless price breaks above the red trend line, which would most likely indicate an expansion of the wave 4 (blue).

USD/JPY

4 hour



The USD/JPY broke the smaller support trend line (dotted green). Due to the proximity of the bottom of the downtrend channel, this could be a pullback for a further correction to the upside or a simple trend continuation. A break below the 100 price level increases the chances of a breakout towards the 61.8% Fibonacci support at 95 whereas a bounce at or above 100 could indicate larger wave B (green) or change of wave structure (once above 100% at 106.84).

1 hour



The USD/JPY break of the channel (dotted green) could indicate bearish momentum. This could be best explained by a potential wave 3 (pink).



“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

GBP/USD in ABC consolidation within wave 4

EUR/USD

4 hour



The EUR/USD is not able to break below horizontal support (green line) and a larger correction within wave 2 (brown) via a WXY (purple) seems likely. Price needs to break below the 1.08 support level (light green) before a bigger wave 3 (green) continuation could occur. A break above the 100% Fib at 1.1428 invalidates wave 2 (brown).

1 hour



The EUR/USD seems to be building a bullish zigzag (blue) after completing a wave X (purple)

GBP/USD

4 hour



The GBP/USD has not continued with its bearish breakout yesterday and is building a bullish retracement. As the 1 hour chart shows, there is still space for further GBP weakness and a continuation of the wave 5 (blue).

1 hour



The GBP/USD indeed is building a consolidation at the 1.28 round level as mentioned in yesterday's wave analysis. A wave 4 (green) retracement usually stops at the 38.2% or 50% Fibonacci levels. A break above the 61.8% makes a wave 4 less likely and a break above the 78.6% invalidates the current wave structure. A break below the support trend line (green) could start the bearish breakout for start of wave 5 (green) of wave 3 (pink).

USD/JPY

4 hour



An USD/JPY break below the 78.6% Fib and 100 round level increases the chances of a bearish breakout towards the 61.8% Fibonacci support of wave 'B vs A' at 95 whereas a bullish bounce at or above 100 could indicate a larger wave B (green) or a change of wave structure (if price is above 100% at 106.84).

1 hour



The support (green) and resistance (orange) trend lines are important boundaries for a potential bearish continuation or bigger bullish correction. The wave 4 (pink) is invalidated if price breaks above the 78.6% Fibonacci resistance.



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[Admiral Markets]

GBP/USD completes wave-4 at 50% Fib and breaks support

EUR/USD

4 hour



The EUR/USD needs to break below the support (green lines) levels before a wave 3 (green) continuation is possible and likely. For the moment a larger wave 2 (brown) correction seems to be taking place via a WXY (purple). A break above the 100% Fib at 1.1428 invalidates wave 2 (brown).

1 hour



The EUR/USD seems to indeed be building an ABC (blue) bullish zigzag. The wave C (blue) however could quickly run into resistance when considering the Fibonacci levels.

GBP/USD

4 hour



The GBP/USD showed bearish engulfing twins on this 4-hour chart as price broke below the small trend line (dotted green). A break below 1.28 increases the chance of a wave 5 (blue) continuation.

1 hour



The GBP/USD wave 4 (green) retracement stopped indeed at the 50% Fibonacci level. A wave 1-2 (orange) seems the most likely scenario at the moment but a break above the 100% level at 1.3047 invalidates the wave count. A push below the wave 1 (orange) bottom could initiate the fall towards the wave 5 (green) targets.

USD/JPY

4 hour



An USD/JPY is close to breaking below the 100 round level, which increases the chances of a bearish breakout towards the 61.8% Fibonacci support of wave 'B vs A' at 95.

1 hour



The USD/JPY broke below the support (green) trend line, which signals a completion of the wave 4 (pink) and start of wave 5 (pink). A break below the 100 round level and 78.6% Fib would help confirm the breakout. The current wave structure is invalidated if price breaks above the orange trend line.



“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

Wave count offers clear invalidation spots in Forex market

EUR/USD

4 hour



The EUR/USD still remains in a larger consolidation zone (orange/green) and a larger wave 2 (brown) correction seems to be taking place via a WXY (purple). Price needs to break below the support (green lines) levels before a wave 3 (green) continuation is likely whereas a break above the 100% Fib at 1.1428 invalidates wave 2 (brown).

1 hour



Any potential bullish retracement could run into resistance at the Fibonacci levels of wave 2 (brown).

GBP/USD

4 hour



The GBP/USD is building a downtrend channel (green/orange) within a bearish wave 5 (blue/purple), which could see many extensions due to the strong momentum.

1 hour



The GBP/USD is in a wave 1-2 (blue) and would become invalid if price manages to break above the 100% Fib level. A break below the support trend line (green) could start the wave 3 (blue).

USD/JPY

4 hour



The USD/JPY attempted to break below the 100 round level, but ultimately was not able to close below the support level. Price is now retesting the resistance trend line (orange). A break below the 100 and support trend line (green) increases the chance of a bearish breakout towards the 61.8% Fibonacci support of wave 'B vs A' at 95. A break above resistance could indicate that the wave C (green) has not yet started and potential larger wave B (green) could develop.

1 hour



The USD/JPY wave 4 (pink) is invalidated if price manages to break above the 61.8% Fibonacci level.



“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”