Elliott Wave Analysis by Admiral Markets

[Admiral Markets]

EUR/USD, USD/JPY develop divergent patterns: bear flag versus wave-3 momentum

EUR/USD

4 hour



The EUR/USD is building a downtrend with lower lows and lower highs but price has not been able to break the bottom of wave 1 (brown) as yet. Price needs to break below the wave 1 bottom support (green) before a wave 3 becomes likely.

1 hour



The EUR/USD is building a bear flag chat pattern (purple). A bearish breakout could indicate the completion of wave 2 (blue). A bullish break above resistance (red) could be limited in its movement due to the Fibonacci levels of wave 2 (blue).

GBP/USD

4 hour



The GBP/USD is still in a triangle chart pattern (green/red). Whether the Cable is bullish or bearish will depend on the direction of the breakout. Price is either in a bearish 123 (pink) or in a bigger ABC retracement (purple).

1 hour



The GBP/USD is building a triangle (orange / green lines). A break below the support trend line is needed before a wave 3 (blue) could be expected. A break above the 100% Fibonacci level invalidates wave 2 (blue). The Fibonacci levels should act as resistance.

USD/JPY

4 hour



The USD/JPY is respected the resistance trend line (red) from the daily chart and broke the smaller support trend line (green). Price is now showing bearish momentum and heading towards the Fibonacci levels of wave C (grey) and the next support trend line (green).

1 hour



The USD/JPY is showing impulse of a wave 3 (orange).



“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

EUR/USD, GBP/USD offer firm invalidation and confirmation levels

EUR/USD

4 hour



The EUR/USD has not been able to break the bottom of wave 1 (brown), which is increasing the chance that a larger correction is taking place rather than a trend continuation via waves 3 (purple/brown). The wave count is vulnerable to change, especially if price breaks above the resistance trend line (red). A break below support (purple/green) would however make a wave 3 (purple) more likely again.

1 hour



The EUR/USD is building a bullish channel (purple). A bearish breakout could indicate the completion of wave 2 (blue). A bullish break above resistance (red) and 100% Fibonacci level invalidates wave 2 (blue).

GBP/USD

4 hour



The GBP/USD is still in a triangle chart pattern (green/red). Whether the Cable is bullish or bearish will depend on the direction of the breakout. Price is either in a bearish 123 (pink) or in a bigger ABC retracement (purple).

1 hour



The GBP/USD is building a correction (orange / green lines) and has been moving sideways for a while. A break below the support trend line is needed before a wave 3 (blue) could be expected. A break above the 100% Fibonacci level invalidates wave 2 (blue). The Fibonacci levels should act as resistance.

USD/JPY

4 hour



The USD/JPY made a bearish correction towards the 38.2% Fibonacci level, which was then used for a bullish bounce. So far the bounce has shown significant bullish momentum. A breakout above the resistance trend line (red) could indicate a larger trend change.

1 hour



The USD/JPY is probably building an impulse, which at the moment is most likely a wave A (blue) of a larger ABC.



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[Admiral Markets]

ABC zigzag corrections persist in Forex market

EUR/USD

4 hour



The EUR/USD broke above the resistance trend line (red) and the wave 1 (purple) has therefore been moved to the recent bottom. A break above the next resistance (orange) and 100% Fibonacci level would confirm a larger correction within wave 2 (brown). A breakout below support (purple/green) would however make a wave 3 (purple) more likely again.

1 hour



The EUR/USD is showing bullish momentum which is most likely part of an ABC zigzag (green).

GBP/USD

4 hour



The GBP/USD is still in a triangle chart pattern (green/red). Whether the Cable is bullish or bearish will depend on the direction of the breakout. Price is either in a bearish 123 (pink) or in a bigger ABC retracement (purple).

1 hour



The GBP/USD broke above the resistance trend lines (orange/red) to enlarge the corrective zone. The Cable could be building multiple waves 1-2 but an impulsive breakout below support (green) is needed before this can be confirmed. A break above the 100% Fib level invalidates wave 2 (blue).

USD/JPY

4 hour



The USD/JPY is in a bearish correction. A break below the 38.2% Fibonacci level should lead to a bearish fall to the 50% or 61.8% Fibonacci level of wave 'X vs W'.

1 hour



Whether the USD/JPY is in a wave B (blue) or wave X (brown) remains to be seen and depends whether price will respect and bounce at the 78.6% Fibonacci level or break below the 100%.



“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

Wave analysis clarify extensive correction triangles in Forex

EUR/USD

4 hour



The EUR/USD continues its long-term consolidation pattern by staying between support (green) and resistance (orange). A bearish breakout is needed before the wave count is confirmed whereas any move above the 100% Fib level invalidates wave 2 (purple).

1 hour



The EUR/USD is building a smaller triangle (red/green). Due to the strong momentum seen in wave A (green), it seems more likely that a wave B and C (green) will follow. A break below the 78.6% Fibonacci level increases the likelihood of wave Y (blue) completed at the recent top.

GBP/USD

4 hour



The GBP/USD seems to have found a temporary equilibrium and is building an extensive sideways movement. The triangle chart pattern (green/red) will need a breakout to decide whether the Cable is bullish or bearish. Price is either in a bearish 123 (pink) or in a bigger ABC retracement (purple).

1 hour



The GBP/USD is building an ABC (grey) bullish zigzag. A break below the support trend lines (green) could indicate the end of the correction.

USD/JPY

4 hour



The USD/JPY is in a bearish correction and retracing back to Fibonacci levels of wave 'X vs W'.

1 hour



The USD/JPY showed a lot of volatility but was not able to break above the resistance (orange). It is now moving towards the Fibonacci targets.



“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

USD/JPY arrives at support trend line and 61.8% Fib level

EUR/USD

4 hour



The EUR/USD was not able to break below the various support levels (green) and instead started a bullish bounce. The break of resistances (dotted lines) has started a strong rally but the wave outlook bearish as long as price stays below the 100% Fibonacci level of wave 2 vs 1, which is the invalidation level.

1 hour



The EUR/USD has developed a bullish ABC (green) zigzag.

GBP/USD

4 hour



The GBP/USD is building a contracting triangle (red/green). The breakout will decide whether the Cable is bullish or bearish. Price is either in a bearish 123 (pink) or in a bigger ABC retracement (purple).

1 hour



A bearish correction could see support kick in at the Fibonacci levels of wave 'X vs W'. A break of the 100% level of wave X vs W is needed before the wave 2 (green) could be ready. A break above the 100% Fibonacci level of wave 2 vs 1 invalidates the bearish wave count.

USD/JPY

4 hour



The USD/JPY bearish correction took price down to the Fibonacci levels of wave 'X vs W'. Price seems to be respecting the 61.8% Fibonacci level.

1 hour



The USD/JPY could have completed a correction at the Fibonacci levels but a confirmation of a bullish turnaround occurs when price has made a clear lower high or bullish break above the resistance trend lines (orange).



“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

US Dollar slow bullish correction implies further weakness

EUR/USD

4 hour



The EUR/USD is building a flat consolidation zone which is a passive correction. Prior to the correction, price was showing bullish momentum so a renewed bullish continuation seems likely at this point. The Fibonacci levels of wave 2 vs 1 are resistance levels, but a break above 100% invalidates the wave count.

1 hour



The EUR/USD could move up higher via a bullish ABC zigzag (green) after it is able to break the resistance trend line (red).

GBP/USD

4 hour



The GBP/USD is building a contracting triangle (red/green). The breakout will decide whether the Cable is bullish or bearish. Price is either in a bearish 123 (pink) or in a bigger ABC retracement (purple).

1 hour



A bearish correction has indeed taken price back to the support trend line (green) which is a bounce or break spot. A bearish break could see price retest the next support trend line. A bullish bounce could see price develop a move back up to the test the Fibonacci levels of wave '2 vs 1'. A break above the 100% Fibonacci level of wave 2 vs 1 invalidates the bearish wave count.

USD/JPY

4 hour



The USD/JPY bearish correction took price down to the 61.8% Fibonacci level of wave 'X vs W'. Price seems to be respecting the Fibo level and support trend line (green). A bullish bounce could take price back to resistance (yellow/red) whereas a bearish break could see price move to the lower Fib levels.

1 hour



The USD/JPY is building a channel (blue), which could be a base for a new uptrend or a bear flag correction. This depends on whether price is able to break below support or above the channel resistance.




“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

Forex market breaks trend lines and Fibonacci levels

EUR/USD

4 hour



The EUR/USD broke the resistance (red dotted) of the small consolidation zone and moved up towards the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, which has served as a resistance point till now. A push above this Fib could see price challenge the 78.6% Fib level of wave 2 vs 1, but a break above 100% invalidates the wave count.

1 hour



The EUR/USD bounced at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of wave B vs A and is heading towards the Fibonacci targets of wave C vs A.

GBP/USD

4 hour



The GBP/USD is building a contracting triangle (red/green). The breakout will decide whether the Cable is bullish or bearish. Price is either in a bearish 123 (pink) or in a bigger ABC retracement (purple).

1 hour



The GBP/USD broke the resistance trend line (dotted orange) as expected yesterday after completing a wave X (grey). The bullish rally showed strong momentum and thus a larger ABC zigzag is expected for the moment (purple). The invalidation level of wave 2 (green) is at the 100% Fibonacci level of wave 2 vs 1.

USD/JPY

4 hour



The USD/JPY broke the support trend line (dotted green) and 61.8% Fibonacci level and made a bearish breakout which took price to the next Fibonacci level at the 78.6%. A bullish bounce could indicate a deep correction whereas another bearish break below this Fib level favours a larger bearish trend.

1 hour



The USD/JPY made a neat break of the trend line and channel (blue) followed by a quick down move towards the 78.6% Fib as explained in the Live Webinar at Admiral Markets yesterday.



“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

EUR/USD, GBP/USD display first signs of bearish momentum

EUR/USD

4 hour



The EUR/USD showed a bearish turn at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level after which is broke the steep support trend line (dotted green). This could indicate the completion of wave 2 (brown) at the 61.8% Fib but a push higher could see price challenge the 78.6% Fib level of wave 2 vs 1. A break above 100% invalidates the wave count.

1 hour



The EUR/USD is building bearish momentum which seems to be part of a wave 3. Any pullback should not go above the 78.6% Fibonacci level of wave 4 (blue) otherwise price invalidates the current wave count by moving above the bottom of wave 1 (blue).

GBP/USD

4 hour



The GBP/USD will be impacted the Bank of England (BOE) rate decision on Thursday 4 August. The Cable is now building a contracting triangle (red/green). The breakout will decide whether the Cable is bullish or bearish. Price is either in a bearish 123 (pink) or in a bigger ABC retracement (purple).

1 hour



The GBP/USD retraced back for a wave B (purple) and the pushed further for a new higher high, which could complete wave C (purple). At the moment the bearish momentum could lead to the start of a new wave 1-2 (blue) but the break of the triangle (purple lines) will indicate whether price can test the next resistance (orange) or support (green) lines.

USD/JPY

4 hour



The USD/JPY is respecting the 78.6% Fibonacci level. A bullish bounce could indicate the completion of wave X (brown) whereas a bearish break could price fall further to test the 100% Fibonacci level.

1 hour



The USD/JPY is building a channel (blue line). A break above or below the support or resistance of the channel could indicate the start of a bearish or bullish breakout.


“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

GBP/USD plunges in bearish wave-3 after rate cut to record low

EUR/USD

4 hour

The EUR/USD has replaced the bullish impulse with the start of a bearish momentum. Price however needs to break below both support trend lines (green) before a continuation is possible.

1 hour

The EUR/USD seems to be building an ABC zigzag (green) within wave 4 (blue). Typically waves 4 are shallow retracements such as the 38.2% Fibonacci level. A break above the 61.8% and bottom of wave 1 (blue) invalidates the current wave count. A break below the support could see the continuation of the downtrend.

GBP/USD

4 hour

The GBP/USD was impacted by the Bank of England’s (BOE) decision to cut the interest rate from 0.5% to a record low of 0.25%. The Cable broke below the support level (dotted green) of the contracting triangle, which could trigger the start of more bearishness especially if price break below horizontal support and if it stays below the resistance (red).

1 hour

The GBP/USD made a strong bearish momentum yesterday which has been labelled as a wave 3 (blue). The wave 3 (blue) could still be ongoing but if a retracement does occur, then the Fibonacci levels of wave 4 (blue) should act as resistance.

USD/JPY

4 hour

The USD/JPY is respecting the 78.6% Fibonacci level. A bullish bounce could indicate the completion of wave X (brown) whereas a bearish break could price fall further to test the 100% Fibonacci level.

1 hour

The USD/JPY is building a channel (blue line). A break above or below the support or resistance of the channel could indicate the start of a bearish or bullish breakout.

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[Admiral Markets]

EUR/USD, GBP/USD break support lines and build wave-4 corrections

EUR/USD

4 hour

The EUR/USD seems to have completed a wave 2 (brown) correction but more bearish momentum is needed before this can be confirmed.

1 hour

The EUR/USD broke the support trend line (dotted green), which completed wave 5 (green) of wave 3 (blue). The current pullback is expected to turn at shallow Fibonacci levels of wave 4 (blue).

GBP/USD

4 hour

The GBP/USD keeps pushing lower with lower lows and lower highs. The bearish breakout is part of a wave 3 (pink) of wave 5 (blue) unless price breaks above the resistance line (red).

1 hour

The GBP/USD completed a wave 4 (grey) pullback as expected and then broke support levels (dotted green) to complete wave 5 (grey) of wave 3 (blue). The 4 (blue) retracement is expected to stop at shallow Fibonacci levels. A break above the 61.8% makes the current wave count unlikely.

USD/JPY

4 hour

The USD/JPY is respecting the 78.6% Fibonacci level by building a bullish channel, which could indicate the completion of wave X (brown). A bullish break above the resistance trend lines (orange/red) would confirm a larger uptrend, whereas a bearish break could price fall further to test the 100% Fibonacci level.

1 hour

The USD/JPY has not been able to break above or below the channel (blue). The breakout direction will indicate the short-term trend.

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