Elliott Wave Analysis by Admiral Markets

[Admiral Markets]

Bullish ABC zigzag creates breakout above trend line

EUR/USD

4 hour



The EUR/USD is bouncing at the support levels (green) of the larger consolidation zone (orange/green). The correction is most likely part of a larger wave 2 (brown) via a WXY (purple). Price needs to break below the support (green lines) levels before a wave 3 (green) continuation is likely whereas a break above the 100% Fib at 1.1428 invalidates wave 2 (brown).

1 hour



A bullish ABC (blue) zigzag is taking place within wave 2 (brown).

GBP/USD

4 hour



The GBP/USD broke the resistance trend line (orange) of the downtrend channel, but this could be explained by a larger consolidation such as a bear flag. This chart pattern is indicated by the green lines and is bearish continuation signal unless price breaks above it.

1 hour



The GBP/USD seems to be building a bullish ABC zigzag (grey) within the wave 4 (green).

USD/JPY

4 hour



The USD/JPY broke above the resistance trend line (orange) and is expanding the wave B (green) correction unless price breaks above the 100% Fibonacci level.

1 hour



The USD/JPY bullish breakout has strong momentum pushing it which seems to be a wave 3 (orange). A larger ABC (grey) seems the most likely unless price breaks below the support trend line (green).


“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

GBP/USD waves explain first bullish rally since Brexit

EUR/USD

4 hour



The EUR/USD showed bullish intentions during yesterday's trading but was unable to break above resistance (yellow) and is now retesting support levels (green). This is part of a bigger correction of wave Y (purple) in wave 2 (brown) unless price breaks above the top (orange).

1 hour



The EUR/USD completed a wave C (green) after which it turned around for a bearish ABC zigzag (green) within wave X (blue). Price is now in a bullish bouncing spot unless price breaks below the 100% Fibonacci level.

GBP/USD

4 hour



The GBP/USD broke the bear flag channel (dotted green) and is showing bullish momentum for the first time since the Brexit referendum. The wave count, however, is still marked as bearish with a wave 1-2 (pink) due to the large GBP/USD decline prior to it. A break above the 100% level of '2 vs 1' invalidates the wave 1-2 (pink).

1 hour



The GBP/USD is showing strong bullish momentum in a steep channel (green/red). If price is in a wave 2 (pink), then a bearish turn at the 78.6% or a bearish breakout below the channel should occur.

USD/JPY

4 hour



The USD/ is expanding the wave B (green) correction unless price breaks above the 100% Fibonacci level (invalidation) or breaks above the resistance (red) trend line (other wave count becomes more likely).

1 hour



The USD/JPY is showing strong bullish momentum, which increases the change of a larger ABC (grey) unfolding. Price typically would retrace to the 38.2%-61.8% Fibonacci levels of wave 'B vs A' before moving higher.



“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

Forex market presents multiple zigzags in wave analysis

EUR/USD

4 hour



The EUR/USD bounced at the support trend line (green) one more time to expand the sizeable correction within wave Y (purple) of wave 2 (brown). The wave 2 (brown) becomes invalidated if price manages to break above the top at 1.1425 whereas wave 3 (green) could start if price manages to break below support (green line).

1 hour



The EUR/USD showed a bullish bounce at the 61.8% Fibonacci level of wave X (blue) as expected in yesterday's wave analysis. A new ABC (green) zigzag seems to be unfolding within the larger corrective pattern.

GBP/USD

4 hour



The GBP/USD respected the deep 78.6% Fibonacci level of wave 2 (pink). A break above the 100% level of '2 vs 1' invalidates the wave 1-2 (pink). A break below the support trend line (green) would most likely confirm the start of wave 3 (pink). The GBP wave count is highly dependent on the Bank of England (BOE) interest rate decision, its monetary policy statement, and speech from the BOE Carney during the upcoming days.

1 hour



The GBP/USD broke the support level (dotted green) of the bullish channel. The bearish decline after the break seems to have unfolded in 5 waves (blue) to build a wave 1 (blue). A break of the 100% Fibonacci level of wave '2 vs 1' invalidates the wave 2 (green).

USD/JPY

4 hour



The USD/JPY is continuing to test the resistance trend line (red). At the moment price seems to be pausing at the 100% Fibonacci level as well. A bullish break above the trend line (red) could see price test higher Fib levels. A break above the 161.8% target would indicate a bullish reversal and a change of the wave count from WXY (pink) to a 123.

1 hour



The USD/JPY sideways movement seems to be unfolding in a bull flag chart pattern (red/green lines) which is respecting the 23.6% Fibonacci level. A break above the bull flag could spark the start of wave 5 (orange). A break below the flag could see price move to and bounce at the 38.2% Fibonacci support.



“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

GBP/USD tests 1.35 resistance with ABC rally

EUR/USD

4 hour



The EUR/USD remains in a corrective zone (trend lines) which is a contracting wedge chart pattern. The wave 2 (brown) becomes invalidated if price manages to break above the top at 1.1425 whereas wave 3 (green) could start if price manages to break below support (green line).

1 hour



The EUR/USD completed the bullish ABC zigzag (green) within wave Y (green) yesterday after which is moved back down due to the resistance (orange) trend line. An expansion of the contracting wedge chart pattern (trend lines) seems the most likely scenario and hence an ABC (green) could develop to complete a wave X (blue).

GBP/USD

4 hour



The GBP/USD did not yet break above the 100% level of '2 vs 1' despite the bullish price action yesterday. A push above the 100% Fib level invalidates the current wave count of 1-2 (pink). A break below the support trend line (green) would most likely confirm the start of wave 3 (pink).

1 hour



The GBP/USD broke the resistance trend line level (dotted red) of the bullish channel (green/red), which sparked an ABC (green) rally. The bullish price action occurred after the Bank of England (BOE) rate decision which remained at 0.5% and was not lowered to 0.25%.

USD/JPY

4 hour



The USD/JPY broke the resistance trend line (red) and is moving quickly to the next Fibonacci levels.. A break above the 161.8% target would indicate a bullish reversal and a change of the wave count from WXY (pink) to a 123.

1 hour



The USD/JPY broke above the bull flag which indeed sparked the start of wave 5 (orange). Price seems to have completed a wave 3 and 4 (purple) in the meantime and price could push up higher to test the Fibonacci targets of waves 5 (orange/purple).


“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

EUR/USD, GBP/USD quickly swap bearish and bullish momentum

EUR/USD

4 hour



The EUR/USD made a bearish bounce and turn at the resistance trend line (orange). Price action has fallen towards the 78.6% Fibonacci level of wave X (blue) and seems to be using it as support for a continuation of wave 2 (brown). The wave 2 (brown) becomes invalidated if price manages to break above the top at 1.1425 whereas wave 3 (green) could start if price manages to break below support (green line).

1 hour



The EUR/USD indeed completed the ABC (green) zigzag within wave X (blue) as mention on Friday. Now price could make a bullish ABC (green) within wave Y (blue) unless price manages to break below the 100% Fibonacci level of 'X vs W'.

GBP/USD

4 hour



The GBP/USD is building a contacting triangle chart pattern which is indicated by the support (green) and resistance (red) lines. A break above resistance invalidates wave 2 (pink) whereas a break below support makes a wave 3 (pink) continuation likely.

1 hour



The GBP/USD seems to be building a bearish impulse. A break above the 61.8% Fibonacci level of wave 4 (blue) invalidates the current wave count. A break below the support trend line (green) would see the completion of wave 5 (blue) of most likely wave 1 (green).

USD/JPY

4 hour



The USD/JPY broke the resistance trend line (red) and is moving quickly to the next Fibonacci levels. A break above the 161.8% target would indicate a bullish reversal and a change of the wave count from WXY (pink) to a 123.

1 hour



The USD/JPY completed the 5 wave (purple) within wave 5 (orange) on Friday as expected. Price is now building a correction within wave B (grey) most likely. A break of the support trend line (green) could price expand wave B (grey).



“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

EUR/USD and GBP/USD diverge on upcoming breakout direction

EUR/USD

4 hour



The EUR/USD is indeed using the support (green/Fib) for a bullish bounce and continuation within wave 2 (brown). The wave 2 (brown) becomes invalidated if price manages to break above the top at 1.1425 whereas wave 3 (green) could start if price manages to break below support (green line).

1 hour



The EUR/USD indeed bounced for a wave B (green) at the support trend line (green) as expected in yesterday's wave analysis. Price is now in a wave C (green) but faces resistance from a trend line (red). A breakout could see price head towards the Fibonacci targets of 'C vs A' and even the bigger trend line (orange).

GBP/USD

4 hour



The GBP/USD is building a contacting triangle chart pattern which is indicated by the support (green) and resistance (red) lines. A break above resistance invalidates wave 2 (pink) whereas a break below support makes a wave 3 (pink) continuation likely.

1 hour



The GBP/USD seems to be building a bearish impulse. A break above the 61.8% Fibonacci level of wave 4 (blue) invalidates the current wave count. A break below the support trend line (green) would see the completion of wave 5 (blue) of most likely a wave 1 (within wave 3 (pink)).

USD/JPY

4 hour



The USD/JPY rally seems to be in a wave B (grey) pullback before more upside could be expected within wave C (grey). A break above the 161.8% target would indicate a bullish reversal and a change of the wave count from WXY (pink) to a 123.

1 hour



The USD/JPY completed several ABC zigzags recently within a larger WXY (orange) correction. Price is now building a correction within wave B (grey) most likely. A break of the support trend line (green) could price expand wave B (grey).



“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

Bearish breakout could retrace before downtrend continues

EUR/USD

4 hour



The EUR/USD is slowly breaking the support trend line (dotted green) but it still has to break below horizontal support at 1.10 before a wave 3 (brown) seems likely.

1 hour



The EUR/USD is completing a bearish 5 wave (green) after breaking the support trend line (dotted green) and respecting the resistance trend line (red). The wave bearish 5 waves (green/blue) seem close to being completed. The wave 5's could be part of a wave 1 (purple) after which a wave 2 (purple) bullish retracement could occur before a larger downtrend continuation occurs as part of wave 3 (purple) of wave 3 (pink).

GBP/USD

4 hour



The GBP/USD broke the support trend line (dotted green) and contracting triangle and is now headed lower. Price is now most likely in a wave 3 (pink), unless price fails to break 1.2950-1.3050 support zone which would lead to a new wave count with a larger bullish correction.

1 hour



The GBP/USD seems to be building a wave 1 (green) within wave 3 (pink). Once the waves 5 (grey/blue) are completed, then a wave 2 (green) retracement could start.

USD/JPY

4 hour



The USD/JPY rally seems to be in a wave B (grey) pullback before more upside could be expected within wave C (grey). A break above the 161.8% target would indicate a bullish reversal and a change of the wave count from WXY (pink) to a 123.

1 hour



The USD/JPY seems to be building an ABC (purple) within wave Y (orange). A break above the Fibonacci levels of wave 'X vs W' would indicate the start of the wave C (grey). A break below the support trend line (green) increases the likelihood of a larger correction within wave B (grey).



“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

EUR/USD, GBP/USD build bullish ABC rally within wave-2

EUR/USD

4 hour



The EUR/USD seems to have completed 5 bearish waves (purple), which have been marked as a wave 1 (purple). A wave 2 (purple) is expected and price can retest the Fibonacci levels of '2 vs 1'. A break above the 100% level invalidates the current wave count. Typically waves 2 retrace deep towards the 61.8% or 78.6% Fib.

1 hour



The EUR/USD indeed was close to completing wave 5 of 5 (green/blue) as mentioned in yesterday's wave analysis. A bullish ABC zigzag (blue) seems to be unfolding within wave 2 (purple). A break of the wave 1 (purple) bottom could indicate a lack of a wave 2 retracement whereas a break of the resistance trend line (red) could spark the wave 2 (purple) correction.

GBP/USD

4 hour



The GBP/USD broke one support trend line (dotted green) but is showing a new bullish bounce again which creates a new support trend line (green). Price is either in a bearish 123 (pink) or in a bigger ABC retracement (purple).

1 hour



The GBP/USD indeed started the wave 2 (green) retracement, which was mentioned in yesterday's wave analysis and live webinar. http://www.admiralmarkets.com/education/webinars/ The bullish rebound saw GBP/USD develop via an ABC zigzag (blue) and channel (green lines). The wave 2 (green) is invalidated if price breaks above the 100% Fib level of '2 vs 1'. Here too waves 2 tend to test deeper Fib levels like 61.8% and 78.6%.

USD/JPY

4 hour



The USD/JPY broke the top of wave A (grey) which makes it most likely that price has completed the correction and is building a new bullish impulse. A break above the 161.8% Fibonacci level could change the wave structure to bullish and see price head to higher Fib targets.

1 hour



The USD/JPY broke resistance (dotted red) and a new bullish impulse seems best explained by a wave 3 (purple). Any wave 4 retracement once the wave 3 is completed should typically stop at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.



“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

EUR/USD, GBP/USD fail to break and remain in wave-2

EUR/USD

4 hour



The EUR/USD did not break the support trend line (green) and is therefore still in a wave 2 (purple) retracement unless price breaks below the support (green) or above the 100% Fibonacci level and resistance (orange), which invalidates the wave 1-2.

1 hour



The EUR/USD could be in a larger ABC (blue) correction due to the lack of a break. The Fibonacci levels should act as resistance.

GBP/USD

4 hour



The GBP/USD is losing momentum and is building a triangle chart pattern. Whether the Cable is bullish or bearish will depend on the direction of the breakout. Price is either in a bearish 123 (pink) or in a bigger ABC retracement (purple).

1 hour



The GBP/USD is building a triangle (red / green lines). A break below both support trend lines is needed before a wave 3 (green) could be expected. A break above the 100% Fibonacci level invalidates wave 2 (green). The Fibonacci levels should act as resistance.

USD/JPY

4 hour



The USD/JPY was unable to break above the 161.8% Fibonacci target and resistance trend line (red) from the daily chart. If price breaks the support trend line a retest of support (green) could occur. A break above resistance (red) indicates a potential long-term bullish breakout.

1 hour



The USD/JPY seems to have completed the ABC (grey) zigzag but price is still in a support zone and could expand the bullish bounce if it does not break below support. A break of support could see price continue with a bearish 12345 or ABC zigzag (on chart).



“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

Forex market waiting for momentum to unfold

EUR/USD

4 hour



The EUR/USD broke the support trend line (green) and could therefore be starting wave 3 (purple). The breakout has been slow and mild so far and price needs to break below the wave 1 bottom support (green) before more confirmation is given.

1 hour



The EUR/USD breakout has been choppy and has been labelled as a leading diagonal wave 1, which has an overlapping 5 wave structure. A break above the 100% Fibonacci level of wave 2 (blue) invalidates the wave count.

GBP/USD

4 hour



The GBP/USD is still in a triangle chart pattern (green/red). Whether the Cable is bullish or bearish will depend on the direction of the breakout. Price is either in a bearish 123 (pink) or in a bigger ABC retracement (purple).

1 hour



The GBP/USD is building a triangle (orange / green lines). A break below the support trend line is needed before a wave 3 (green) could be expected. A break above the 100% Fibonacci level invalidates wave 2 (green / blue). The Fibonacci levels should act as resistance.

USD/JPY

4 hour



The USD/JPY is respecting the resistance trend line (red) from the daily chart. If price breaks the smaller support trend line (green) a retest of the bigger support (blue) could occur. A break above resistance (red) indicates a potential long-term bullish breakout.

1 hour



The USD/JPY seems to be completing an ABC (grey) zigzag at the moment. A break above the 100% Fibonacci level decreases the likelihood of a wave B (grey).



“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”