Technical Analysis by Admiral Markets

[Admiral Markets]

Technical Outlook – EURCHF, GBPCHF, AUDCHF and NZDCHF

EURCHF

Ever since the EURCHF reversed from 1.0800 region, during late February, the pair steadily declined to near 1.0220-15 support region near the end of April; however, failure to break the same provided slow and steady strength to the pair prices, as marked by the ascending trend-channel. The prices are currently trading near 100-day SMA, 1.0480, with 1.0530-35 being an intermediate resistance before the pair could test channel resistance, 1.0600; though, a break of 1.0600 on a closing basis, can fuel the pair's rally towards 1.0690 - 1.0700 area prior to targeting 1.0800. On the contrast, a close above100-day SMA is less likely to take place and can pullback the pair prices towards 1.0430, 1.0370 before testing the channel support, near 1.0320. Break of 1.0320 on a daily closing seems less expected and if at all the pair manages to decline below that 1.0220-15 zone can restrict further downside towards 1.0000 psychological magnet.

GBPCHF

On Wednesday, the GBPCHF plunged to the lowest level in nearly a month; however, ascending trend-line support, forming part of "Rising-Wedge" bearish technical pattern, near 1.4430, couldn't broke and the pair currently trades near 1.4630 with immediate up-moves capped by 76.4% Fibo, near 1.4680, quickly followed by the 200-day SMA, at 1.4705 presently. Further up-move beyond 1.4705 seems to be restricted by the formation resistance, near 1.4810, breaking which the bearish formation gets negated, fueling the pair towards 1.4960 horizontal mark prior to surpassing 1.5000 round figure mark. Alternatively, a closing break of 1.4430 confirms the bearish formation and can immediately pullback the pair towards 1.4200 region, breaking which 61.8% Fibo, near 1.4140, can become an intermediate rest for the pair before it could target sub-1.4000 area.

AUDCHF

Even if the AUDCHF witnesses a pullback from its more than five month lows, marked on Wednesday, the short-term descending trend-channel keep supporting the pair's downtrend with 0.6950-45, channel support, being immediate support. On the consequent decline below 0.6945, 0.6900 and the January lows, at 0.6850 are likely important supports for the pair ahead of targeting 61.8% FE level near 0.6730. However, an upside break of 0.7100 on a closing basis can fuel the pair towards 0.7150 prior to witnessing 0.7230-75 broad resistance region that includes 50-day SMA, channel resistance and the 23.6% Fibo. A break above 0.7275 negates the chances of pair's near-term decline and can fuel it towards 0.7500 region with 0.7470 being an intermediate resistance for the pair.

NZDCHF

Having witnessed consecutive failures to break 61.8% FE level, near 0.6250, during Tuesday and Wednesday, the NZDCHF currently trades near 0.6400 mark, more than a week's high; however, short-term descending trend-channel resistance, near 0.6445-50 could restrict the pair's immediate up-move, breaking which 0.6525-30 and the 0.6600 are likely consecutive resistances that the pair trades should look for. On a further up-move beyond 0.6600, chances of the pair's rally towards surpassing 0.6700 can't be denied. Given the pair's inability to sustain recent highs, it could drift lower towards 0.6330-20 support area, breaking which 0.6270, 0.6250 and the channel support at 0.6230, are likely downside levels that the pair traders should take care off. However, a break of 0.6230 opens door for the pair's decline towards 100% FE, near 0.6090-80 region.



“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

Technical Outlook - EURCAD, GBPCAD and CADCHF

EURCAD

After confirming a bullish reversal chart-pattern on daily chart, Inverted Head and Shoulders, the pair cleared 200-day SMA important hurdle and is currently trading at its highest level since Feb. 25. From current levels, a sustained strength above 1.4200 round figure mark seems to assist the pair in extending its upward trajectory, possibly even beyond 1.4300 round figure mark, towards its next important resistance near 1.4330-50 horizontal area. On the downside, 1.4110-4100 zone now seems to protect immediate downside and any weakness below 1.4100 mark now seems to be restricted by a strong resistance, now turned support, near 1.4050 area. However, should the pair breaks through this important support, it could possibly be headed back towards retesting 200-day SMA, currently near 1.3910-1.3900 area.

GBPCAD

The pair marked a V-shaped recovery from the lows touched in April to print a fresh 2015 high and is now headed for its highest weekly close since Oct. 2008. Should the pair continue holding above 1.9700 mark and manage to surpass 2015 closing high resistance near 1.9740, it could possibly extend the bullish momentum towards its immediate resistance near 1.9800 round figure mark. The upward trajectory could further boost the pair in the near-term towards testing the very important psychological mark resistance near 2.0000 level. Meanwhile, should the pair starts reversing its gains and drop back below 1.9700 mark, it seems to drop back towards 1.9550 horizontal support and the drop might get extended towards 1.9500 resistance break-point now turned support area; although 1.9650 might provide some intermediate minor support on the downside.

CADCHF

Weakness below 0.7600 mark confirmed a bearish Double-Top chart pattern formation on daily chart. The pair subsequently extended its weakness even below 0.7420-0.7400 support area, marking 50% Fib. retracement level of its up-swing from Jan. lows to highs touched in March and April 2015. Hence, from current levels the pair seems to continue with its depreciating move towards its next logical support near 0.7300 level, marked by 61.8% Fib. retracement level. On the upside, 0.7400 round figure mark, nearing 50% Fib. retracement level, now seems to have turned as immediate resistance and a move above this resistance is likely to confront a strong resistance near 0.7465-80 area. Should the pair manages to conquer this strong resistance, it could possibly be headed back towards retesting the important support break point, now turned resistance, near 0.7600 region with 38.2% Fib. retracement level near 0.7550 acting as intermediate resistance.



“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

Technical Outlook - Gold, Silver and Crude Oil

GOLD

Sustained trading below $1172-68 horizontal support region continue supporting the downtrend of Gold prices; however, support-line of the possible "Falling-Wedge" bullish formation, near $1145, quickly followed by the year's low near $1140, can restrict immediate decline of the yellow metal prices. Should it fail to reverse from $1140 and closes below it on a daily basis, 61.8% FE of its January – March decline, near $1130, becomes an immediate support for the metal, breaking which $1100 and the $1080 are likely downside supports that the bullion traders should take care of. Currently, $1168-72 becomes an immediate resistance for the Gold prices while a sustained break of which can target $1180 and the $1188-90 on the upside. Moreover, successive trading above $1190 confirms the bullish technical formation, fueling the metal prices towards $1215 and the $1230 levels, wherein the $1205 can become an intermediate rest. Further up-move beyond $1230 negates chances of near-term decline by the yellow metal fueling it towards $1250 region.

SILVER

Failure to sustain the break of $15.20-30 horizontal mark pulled back the Silver prices, signaling $15.80 as an immediate resistance, breaking which 23.6% Fibo of its October 2013 to November 2014 decline, near $16.30, and the $16.80 are likely consecutive resistances prior to testing $17.50, encompassing 38.2% Fibo. On further up-move beyond $17.50, the pair can quickly run towards $18.50-65 important resistance region, including 50% Fibo and resistance-line of two year old descending trend-channel. Meanwhile, the metal's downside seems to be restricted by $15.00 - $14.95 support, breaking which the November 2014 lows, near $14 can become an intermediate support prior to the metal's plunge towards $13.00 - $12.90, including channel support and the 61.8% FE. Even if chances of the sustained break of $12.90 are lesser, a plunge below that could easily recall $11.50 region for the Silver prices.

CRUDE OIL

Break of $54.30 – $53.80 horizontal support region seems fading its strength and Crude prices are re-testing the same region with a close above $54.30 signaling $55 and the 56.60. Given the crude prices surpass $56.60 on a closing basis, it could rally to $58 in a quick up-move. A move beyond $58 seems to be restricted near 200-day SMA $60 which caps the medium-term advance of the crude prices. On the downside, $50.70 and $49.40-30 are likely immediate supports levels that the Crude traders should take care of, breaking which $47.70-60 is likely support before the pair can target $45 - $44 broad support region, breaking which $41.30 can'e be denied.



“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

Technical Outlook - EURUSD, EURGBP, EURJPY and EURAUD

EURUSD

Even after getting the Greece bailout news, the EURUSD failed to sustain 100-day SMA break; however, four month old ascending trend-line support, forming part of symmetrical triangle, together with 23.6% Fibo of December – March decline, within 1.0960 – 1.0930 region, could provide strong downside support to the pair. Given its ability to close below 1.0930, it can quickly plunge to 1.0815-1.0800 horizontal support-zone prior to targeting sub-1.0630 area. On the upside, 1.1100 mark may limit the pair's immediate advance before it could see 1.1180 and the 1.1260, including 38.2% Fibo, while extended rise beyond 1.1260 can be capped by the 1.1370-80 resistance-zone, including upper line of the triangle. Moreover, a sustained trading above 1.1380 can fuel the pair's rally towards 1.1530 and the 1.1650 resistances before looking for 1.1800 zone.

EURGBP

Having failed to break 0.7220-25 multiple resistance region, which also includes 100-day SMA, immediate decline of the EURGBP seems restricted by the 0.7055-50 support-zone, breaking which the pair can head towards testing 0.7000 psychological mark. Should the pair successfully breaks 0.7000 region, it could easily plunge to 61.8% FE, around 0.6920 – 0.6900 area, before targeting 0.6800 region. On the upside, 0.7150 and the 0.7220-25 are likely near-term resistances to determine pair's up-move while a sustained trading above 0.7225 can open doors for the pair's upward trajectory towards 0.7280 and 0.7330 resistance levels.

EURJPY

EURJPY's pullback from 133.30 support area seems to be restricted by the 136.60-80 multiple resistance region, including 50-day SMA, with 135 being immediate support while a close above 136.80 can fuel the pair's rally towards 138 region, including 50% Fibo. Moreover, a sustained trading above 138 can fuel the pair's up-move towards 139.60 and the 141 important resistance levels that restricts pair's near-term advance. Meanwhile, a close below 135 again pulls back the pair towards 133 round figure mark, breaking which 132.30 and the 131.50-40 area are likely important support levels that the pair traders should take care of. On a further down-run below 131.40, the pair can become vulnerable to witness sub-130 region.

EURAUD

Short-term ascending trend-channel support, presently near 1.4770 mark, closely followed by 1.4730 horizontal mark, seems restricting the immediate decline of EURAUD; however, only an upside break of 1.4900 can fuel the pair towards 1.4960, 1.5020 and the 1.5070 horizontal resistance, also including channel resistance. Considering the recent weakness in EUR, the downside break is more expected while a closing break of 1.4730 can support chances of the pair's plunge towards 1.4630 and sub-1.4500 region. Alternatively, a rally beyond 1.5070 is more likely to witness 1.5200 region should the continuous up-move sustains.



“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

Technical Update - USDCAD, USDCHF, AUDUSD and NZDUSD

USDCAD

The pair continues to trade within a well-established short-term ascending trend-channel but is now facing resistance near 1.2780-1.2800 area, marking 2015 closing highs and also nearing the upper trend-line resistance of the ascending channel. A sustained strength above 1.2800 mark, leading to an additional strength above 1.2840-50 area, would mark a break-out above the ascending channel, opening room for continuation of the upward trajectory towards it next major resistance marked by highs tested in March 2009, near 1.3000 region. Alternatively, reversal from current resistance area now seems to find immediate support near 1.2700 mark and failure to hold this immediate support might easily drag the pair back towards testing 1.2530-10 support with 1.2600 round figure mark acting as intermediate support. Further, any major corrective move now seems to be limited at the lower trend-line support of the channel, currently near 1.2400-1.2390 area and only a decisive weakness below this strong resistance would mark reversal of the ongoing up-trend, thus making the vulnerable to continue drifting lower towards testing sub-1.2000 mark level.

USDCHF

The pair's recovery from 0.9150 level, although remains intact within a short-term ascending trend-channel formation on 4-hourly chart, but seems to face serious headwind above 0.9500 mark, at 200-day SMA near 0.9520-30 area. Should the pair manage to decisively conquer this important resistance, it now seems to extend the near-term upward momentum towards 0.9650-60 resistance area, marked by 23.6% Fib. retracement level of the pair's upswing from Jan. 15 lows to high touched in March. Meanwhile on the downside, the lower trend-line of the ascending channel, also coinciding with 38.2% Fib. retracement level, near 0.9375-70 area might continue to protect immediate downside. A decisive break below this immediate support would mark a break below the ascending channel, thus paving way for further near-term depreciating move towards testing 0.9250-40 horizontal support area.

AUDUSD

After dropping to its lowest level since May 2009, the pair seems to find some support near 0.7400 mark, representing 61.8% Fib. expansion level but has failed to register any meaningful recovery from lower levels. From current level, a sustained move above 0.7450 level seems to be immediately followed by an up-move towards 0.7500 mark resistance, which if conquered decisively now seems to trigger a near-term short-covering bounce, initially towards an important support break-point now turned resistance near 0.7600 mark and eventually towards 0.7650-60 major resistance marked by the upper trend-line resistance of a short-term descending channel formation on daily chart. Meanwhile, a drop back below 0.7400 mark now seems to infuse additional near-term weakness and considering that the pair is just moving out of near-term oversold conditions, it might accelerate the fall immediately towards testing the lower trend-line support of the channel, currently near 0.7300-0.7280 region.

NZDUSD

The pair remains in a well-established downtrend as depicted by formation of a descending trend-channel on daily chart. The pair currently is witnessing a bounce-back from the lower trend-line support of the channel, but is likely to confront an immediate resistance near 0.6750-60 area. This is closely followed by a strong resistance near 0.6800-10 area, marked by the upper trend-line resistance of the descending channel. A decisive strength above the descending channel now seems to provide additional near-term boost for the pair, towards testing its next horizontal resistance near 0.6900-10 area. On the downside, 0.6700-0.6680 area seems to provide immediate support and failure to hold this support could possibly drag the pair, even below its recent lows and below 0.6600 mark, towards testing the lower trend-line support of the channel, currently near 0.6550-40 area.




“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

Technical Update - Important JPY Pairs

USDJPY

The pair managed to recover sharply from 120.30-40 support area, marked by an ascending trend-line support extending since the beginning of 2015 through lows tested in April-May 2015, and subsequently moved back above an important resistance near 123.00 mark, represented by a short-term descending trend-line. Hence, from current levels, the pair seems more likely to continue its upward trajectory, initially test 124.40-50 resistance area and eventually towards a very important resistance near 125.00 mark. Further, a decisive strength above 125.00 mark now seems to open room for additional appreciating move towards 126.30-50 resistance area, marked by highs tested in March-April 2001. Meanwhile on the downside, the resistance break-point near 123.00-122.80 area now seems to protect immediate downside. Failure to hold this immediate support seems to drag the pair back towards retesting the ascending trend-line support, currently near 120.60-50 area, which if broken might trigger extension of the near-term corrective move towards its next major support at 200-day SMA, currently near 118.50 level.

CADJPY

After testing a very important support near 94.50 level, the pair managed to rebound sharply to retest an ascending trend-line support break-point, now turned resistance near 97.00 region. This 97.00 mark also coincides with 38.2% Fib. retracement level of the pair sharp fall from June high to lows tested in July. Clear strength above 97.00 mark resistance has the potential to lift the pair back towards 200-day SMA resistance near 98.40-50 zone with 50% Fib. retracement level near 97.70-80 area acting as intermediate resistance. Alternatively, reversal from current resistance level and a subsequent break below 96.50-40 immediate horizontal support might force the pair back below 23.6% Fib. retracement level intermediate support near 96.00 region to retest 94.50 important support area. Moreover, reversal from support turned resistance and a subsequent retest of an important support would suggest that the pair might be headed lower towards testing its next major downside support near 93.00 level.

AUDJPY

After dropping to its lowest level since Feb. 2014 and nearly testing 89.00 round figure mark, the pair managed to recover from near-term oversold conditions and has now moved back above 92.00 mark. Although, on 1-hourly chart the pair seems to move within an ascending trend-channel, but it seems to confront a strong resistance near 92.40-50 area, marking 38.2% Fib. retracement level of its May to July down-leg. Should the pair manage to conquer this immediate resistance it clearly seems to be headed towards its next major resistance confluence near 93.20 level, comprising of 50% Fib. retracement level and the upper trend-line resistance of the ascending channel. On the downside, the lower trend-line of the ascending channel, currently near 92.00 region, seems to protect immediate downside. However, should the pair decisively break below the ascending channel, it could immediate drop back to 91.10-91.00 support area marked by 23.6% Fib. retracement level.

GBPJPY

The pair's corrective move from its highest level since Sept. 2008 ended at a very important support near 185.00 region, comprising of 100-day SMA and 50% Fib. retracement level of the pair's big up-move from April low to highs touched in June. The pair resumed its upward trajectory and is now trading above 193.00 mark. From current levels, should the pair manages to continue the momentum and strengthen above 193.50-60 horizontal resistance, it could possibly be aiming back towards retesting its recent highs resistance near 195.50 level. Further, a sustained break above 195.50 resistance now seems to set the stage for extension of the upward trajectory towards testing 61.8% Fib. expansion level resistance near 198.40-50 zone. On the downside, weakness below 193.00 level seems to get extended towards 191.50-30 support area, nearing 23.6% Fib. retracement level. This 191.50-30 area now seems to act as a strong support on the downside, which if broken might negate the near-term bullish expectations, thus increasing the pair's vulnerability to continue drifting lower towards retesting 188.00-187.80 support area, marked by 38.2% Fib. retracement level.



“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

Technical Outlook - Important GBP Pairs

GBPUSD

Having breached 1.5600, encompassing short-term descending trend-line resistance, the GBPUSD seems struggling to break its 1.5675-80 resistance region, signaling a mild pullback towards 1.5560, representing 61.8% Fibo of its October 2014 – April 2015 decline. However, a break of 1.5560 can weaken the pair towards testing 100-day SMA support, 1.5275, with 1.5370 being intermediate rest while a move below 1.5275 can make the pair vulnerable to test 1.5180 and sub-1.5000 region. Meanwhile, an upside break of 1.5680 can quickly fuel the pair towards 1.5800 psychological mark, also including 76.4% Fibo. Should the pair manages to extend its upward trajectory beyond 1.5800, the 1.5940-50 region is likely providing the buffer before it could test 1.6025-30 region, having a yearlong ascending trend-line resistance that had already halted the pair's up-move during February, May and June.

GBPNZD

With the immediate ascending trend-channel supporting GBPNZD up-move, the pair seems all set to break its recent highs of 2.3470; however, a move beyond 2.3470 can witness 2.3520 prior to testing the channel resistance, also including 61.8% FE of its June gap-up to July highs, near 2.3650-55 region. Given the pair's ability to extend its upward trajectory above 2.3650, it can easily target 2.3840-50 resistance area. On the downside break of 2.3280 channel support can pullback the pair towards 2.3100 – 2.3090 region, including 23.6% Fibo of the said move while a break of 2.3090 open doors for the pair's plunge towards 2.2900 region. Although 2.2900 can strengthen the chances of pair's reversal, failing to which it can easily testing 2.2700 – 2.2650 broad support region that restricts near-term decline of the pair.

GBPCAD

Steeply rising ascending trend-channel, coupled with recent break of 1.9830 horizontal mark, continue supporting GBPCAD up-move towards 2.0000 psychological magnet and the channel resistance, near 2.0180. While a sustained break of 2.0180 can signals the pair's rally towards one year old ascending trend-line resistance, near 2.0340, breaking which horizontal line covering multiple resistances marked during October, near 2.0680, becomes a strong level to watch. Alternatively, a break below 1.9830 resistance turned immediate support can provide further weakness to the pair's strength towards testing 1.9660 and 1.9550, prior to testing the channel support, near 1.9480. If the pair triggers strong decline below 1.9480, chances of short-term up-move can be negated, making it vulnerable to plunge towards 100-day SMA, 1.8950 level.

GBPCHF

Pair's reversal from 1.4480 region, as signaled by the support-line of "Rising-Wedge" bearish formation, fueled it towards testing 1.4825-30 resistance region; however, the formation resistance, near 1.4860, could restrict the pair's immediate up-move. Should the pair manages to break 1.4860 on a closing basis, it is likely to extend the up-move towards 1.4960 horizontal mark, breaking which the pair becomes eligible to surpass 1.5100 zone. However, a reversal from current levels can witness 1.4750 and the 1.4650-40 support-zone, prior to testing the formation support, near 1.4530 while a close below 1.4530 confirms the bearish formation, making it vulnerable to re-test 1.4180 area with 1.4370-75 being intermediate support.




“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

Technical Outlook - EURCHF, CADCHF, CHFJPY and AUDCHF

EURCHF

EURCHF keeps trading around 38.2% Fibo of its late January – February up-move and 50-day SMA with 1.0380, 1.0350 and the 1.0300 likely near-term intermediate support prior to its plunge towards 1.0230 decisive horizontal line support while on the upside, 1.0450 and 1.0500 likely short-term resistances that the pair can test. With the descending trend-line signaling pair's inability to move beyond 1.0500, a break below 1.0230 becomes more favorable and can open room for the pair's plunge towards 1.0070 region prior to targeting 1.0000 and 0.9930 supports. Meanwhile, a sustained break of 1.0500 negates the possibilities of the pair's near-term decline, fueling its upwards trajectory towards 1.0700 area with 1.0570 being intermediate rest. Moreover, a break above 1.0700 can face strong resistance between 1.0800 – 1.0810 resistance region, breaking which 1.1000 region may become reality.

CADCHF

Even if the CADCHF have been sticking near 50% Fibo of its late-January – March up-move, the short-term descending trend-channel keep signaling pair's extended declines; however, 0.7345 and the channel support, also including 61.8% Fibo, near 0.7300 round figure mark, could restrict the pair's near-term downside. Should the pair fails to reverse from 0.7300 mark, 0.7260 and 0.7200 are likely intermediate resistances before it could test 0.7100 area. On the upside, 0.7425 and the 0.7465-70 region can restrict the pair's immediate up-move, breaking which 0.7515 is likely being consecutive resistance prior to pair's rally towards 0.7550-55 important resistance region, encompassing channel resistance, 50-day SMA and 38.2% Fibo. Given the pair's ability to rally beyond 0.7555, it could quickly rally to 0.7630 before targeting 0.7700 area on the up-side.

CHFJPY

Failure to surpass 50-day SMA, needless to say the 131.20-50 important horizontal region, pulled back the CHFJPY signaling an extended decline towards 129 round figure mark, breaking which 128.40-20 support area, encompassing four month old ascending trend-line and the horizontal support, provides strong downside support to the pair. Should it manages to close below 128.20, it can immediate test 127 and could go further down towards targeting 125.50 region. Alternatively, a break above 131.50 can fuel the pair towards 132.50 and the 133.85-90 region, breaking which 134.60 "Double Top" can restrict the pair's near-term up-move. On the extended up-move beyond 134.60, the pair can rally to 136.50 and 138 resistance region prior to targeting 140 psychological level.

AUDCHF

Weaker fundamentals from the Australia, coupled with short-term descending trend-channel, keep supporting AUDCHF decline towards 0.6985 immediate supprt, breaking which channel lower line, near 0.6900 round figure mark, could provide a pullback to the pair prices. Should the pair fails to reverse from 0.6900 region, the January lows, near 0.6850 are likely to be break soon, targeting 61.8% FE of its September 2014 to January plunge, near 0.6570 area. On the contrast, the 0.7095 – 0.7100 horizontal region, limits the pair's immediate rise, breaking which the pair can quickly move up to 0.7170 and the crucial 0.7215-20 resistance region, encompassing 50-day SMA and the channel resistance. On the successful break above 0.7220, the pair can test 0.7290, 23.6% Fibo, 0.7350-60 resistance area which is likely limiting the pair's medium-term advance.




“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

Technical Outlook - NZD Pairs

EURNZD

The pair remains within a well-established up-trend as depicted by formation of an ascending trend-channel on daily chart. Extending the up-trend, the pair on Thursday tested its highest level since Feb. 2014 and now seems to witness some profit taking move at higher levels. From current level, weakness below 1.6600 mark is likely to extend the corrective move towards testing the lower trend-line support of the ascending channel, currently near 1.6410-1.6400 area. However, considering the pair's strong upward momentum established since April this year, it seems more likely to continue with its upward trajectory in the near-term. Until the pair continues holding above 1.6600 mark, it might make an attempt to retest or possibly even surpass 1.6800 mark resistance and aim towards testing 1.6850-70 resistance area, marking Dec. 2013 closing highs, which could further get extended towards 1.7000 psychological mark resistance.

AUDNZD

On 4-hourly chart, the pair managed to rebound from the lower trend-line support of an ascending trend-channel and is now confronting with an immediate horizontal resistance near 1.1340-50 area. Should the pair manage to clear this immediate hurdle, it seems to extend the bounce initially towards 1.1400 mark, the highest level since Nov. 2013 tested earlier in July. The pair could eventually surpass 1.1500 mark psychological mark resistance to test the upper trend-line resistance of the channel, currently near 1.1550 region. Meanwhile on the downside, 1.1220-1.1200 area now seems to provide immediate support. Failure to hold this immediate support seems to drag the pair back towards testing the lower trend-line support of the channel, currently near 1.1100 round figure mark.

NZDCHF

Following a decisive break below 0.6475-60 important support, the pair continued drifting lower to test its lowest level since Jan. 15, also coinciding with the lower trend-line support of a short-term descending trend-channel formation on 4-hourly chart. From current levels, the pair might extend the bounce-back towards an immediate hurdle near 0.6250-60 area, which if cleared seems to extend bounce towards 0.6300 region. This 0.6300 now seems to cap any near-term bounce for the pair and pair seems more likely to resume its downward trajectory. On the downside, 0.6200 level marking the lower trend-line support of the channel might continue acting as immediate support for the pair. A decisive break below 0.6200 mark sets the stage for continuation of the downward trajectory back towards the swing lows tested on Jan. 15, near 0.6030-20 area.

NZDJPY

After being unable to hold an important support near 84.50 level, the pair on Thursday fell to a fresh 2015 lows testing its lowest level since Oct. 2013. The pair, however, once again managed to find some support near 80.50 region and is now witnessing a minor recovery from lower levels. The current bounce back is likely to confront immediate resistance near 81.00-81.20 zone, which if conquered has the potential to extend the pull-back towards its next resistance near 82.50-70 horizontal zone. Further, a clear strength above 82.50-70 resistance now seems to trigger a short-covering rally towards an important support break-point now turned resistance near 84.50 level. Meanwhile, a decisive weakness below 80.50 region seems to open room for continuation of the weakening trend immediately towards 79.40-20 support area, marked by high touched in July-August 2013. Further, the downward momentum could exert additional pressure in the near-term, dragging the pair towards its next major support near 76.10-76.00 zone, representing Aug.-Sept. closing low levels.





“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

Technical Outlook: US Equity Indices

Dow Jones Industrial Average [DJI30]

Following a break of short-term descending trend-line on Thursday, the DJI30 seems heading towards 18200 region prior to targeting 18280-300 resistance area. Should it manages to clear these near-term hurdles, the index seems to extend the up-move initially towards May month high, near 18360, and then look for the 61.8% FE of its October – December 2014 up-move, near 18430. Meanwhile, a close below resistance-turned-support line, near 18000 round figure mark, negates the recent break and could pull the index back towards 17920 – 17900 multiple support region, breaking which 17760-50 region, including 23.6% Fibo and 200-day SMA, provide strong downside support to restrict near-term decline by the index. On the break of 17750, it can become vulnerable to witness 17430 – 17360 broad support region.

Nasdaq [NQ100]

Even after re-testing its November 2014 highs during early month decline, the NQ100 remains within a well-established up-trend as depicted by formation of an ascending trend-channel on daily chart. The index now seems heading towards 4700 – 4710 resistance region, encompassing the channel resistance, together with the 100% FE of its October – November 2014 up-move; however, 4650 can provide a buffer to the successive rally by the index. On the downside, horizontal line connecting the highs marked in April-June, near 4560, becomes an immediate support, breaking which 61.8% FE, near 4450, and the channel support and recent lows, together with the 200-day SMA, between 4350-20 could restrict near-term decline of the index. On the successive decline below 4320, the index could plunge to sub-4200 region, negating chances of near-term up-move.

S&P 500 [SP500]

Sustained break of 100-day SMA keep favoring near-term up-move by the SP500; however, 2130-35 resistance region, encompassing highs marked in May and June, can become critical to determine near-term trend of the index. Moreover, a sustained break of 2135 can witness 61.8% FE of its October – December 2014 up-move, near 2150, prior to targeting the broad ascending trend channel resistance, near 2172-73. Should the index fails to surpass the mentioned resistance region, 100-day SMA, near 2095 presently, can become immediate support for the index before it could test 2065 and the channel support, near 2045. However, a break below 2045 could make the index vulnerable to plunge towards 1980-75 support area.




“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”