Technical Analysis by Admiral Markets

[Admiral Markets]

Technical Update - EURCAD, AUDCAD and GBPAUD

EURCAD

After testing its highest level since Feb. 2015, the pair now seems to have moved in a consolidation phase forming a short-term symmetrical triangle on 4-hourly chart. Considering the pair up-move from June lows, the symmetrical triangular formation seems to constitute towards formation of a bullish continuation patter, Pennant, suggesting resumption of the prior trend. Hence, a decisive move above the descending trend-line resistance of symmetrical triangle, currently near 1.4150 level, seems to set the stage for continuation of the upward trajectory immediately towards its next resistance near 1.4330-50 area, which could eventually get extended towards 1.4500 resistance area, marking 2015 highs. Meanwhile on the downside, 1.4100-1.4080 area, representing 23.6% Fib. retracement level of the pair's upswing from June low to July high, seems to protect immediate downside. Failure to hold this immediate support might drag the pair back towards testing the lower ascending trend-line support of symmetrical triangle, currently near 1.4030-20 region. A decisive break below this support might negate the bullish formation, thus might lead to extension of the corrective move towards its next support at 38.2% Fib. retracement level near 1.3970-60 area.

AUDCAD

The pair once again managed to hold and rebound from the very important 0.9400 mark support. From current level, the pair seems more likely to continue appreciating further towards an immediate strong resistance near 0.9650 level, marking the descending 200-day SMA (forming a descending trend-line resistance). A decisive strength above 200-day SMA might negate any near-term bearish outlook for the pair, thus paving way for an immediate upside towards its next important resistance near 0.9750 region. Alternatively, failure to conquer the 200-day SMA important resistance and a subsequent reversal back below 0.9550 immediate horizontal support seems to extend the weakness towards an intermediate support near 0.9460-50 area. However, 0.9400 mark might continue to act as important downside support and a decisive break below this important support would mark break-down, which now seems to open room for continuing the pair's near-term downward trajectory towards July-August 2013 lows support near 0.9200 mark.

GBPAUD

Continuing with its well-established up-trend as depicted by formation of an ascending trend-channel held since Sept. 2014, the pair this week tested its highest level since March 2009. The multi-year highs also coincides with the upper trend-line resistance of the ascending channel. Hence, we could possibly witness a near-term corrective move, which is likely to be confirmed once the pair drops below its immediate horizontal support near 2.1000 mark. A decisive break below 2.1000 mark has the potential to drag the pair towards its next horizontal support near 2.0550-40 area. On the upside, 2.1120-40 area closely followed by 2.1190-2.1200 zone seems to act as immediate upside resistance. A decisive move above this immediate resistance would mark a decisive break-out from the ascending channel, thus opening room for extension of the pair's appreciating move towards its next major resistance 2.1730-50 region in the near-term.





“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

Technical Outlook - EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCAD and USDCHF

EURUSD

Successful break of four month old ascending trend-line, forming part of symmetrical triangle, triggered the EURUSD decline towards 1.0820 – 1.0810 horizontal support which now acts as a pullback point for the pair. However, the current pullback seems to be restricted by the 1.0945-50 resistance area, breaking which 23.6% Fibo, support-turned-resistance line and the 100-day SMA, between 1.0970 – 1.1000 region could limit the pair's near-term advance. Given the pair's ability to surpass 1.1000 psychological magnet on a closing basis, it can quickly rally to 1.1100-30 multiple resistance zone, surpassing which the pair's rally towards 1.1280-1.1300 area can't be negated. Meanwhile, a daily close below 1.0810 can restore the pair's decline towards 1.0700 and the 1.0630 consecutive support levels while an extended downturn below 1.0630 is likely providing the green signal to the pair's plunge towards March lows, near 1.0460.

GBPUSD

Inability to surpass 1.5670-75 resistance-zone, needless to say 1.5700 mark, pulled back the pair towards 61.8% Fibo of its November 2014 to April 2015 decline, signaling a stretched down-move towards 1.5440 and the 1.5370 level, encompassing short-term ascending trend-line, coupled with 50% Fibo. Further, a break below 1.5370 on a closing basis could immediately trigger pair's plunge towards 100-day SMA, near 1.5280-75 support-zone, breaking 1.5180-70 support area could restrict the pair's near-term decline. Alternatively, 1.5670-75 and the 1.5700 psychological mark are likely immediate resistances for the pair, breaking which chances of the pair's up-move towards 1.5785 – 1.5800 region get strengthened while a break of 1.5800 area could fuel the pair's upwards trajectory to 1.5900 and the 1.6045-50 region, including a long ascending trend-line resistance.

USDCAD

Having marked fresh six year high during Monday, the USDCAD seems struggling to break 61.8% FE of its October 2014 to March 2015 up-move, signaling towards a bit of pullback towards 1.2900 area. However, a break of 1.2900 on a closing basis could quickly fetch the pair to its March high of 1.2830 and a close below that may open the doors for the pair's decline to 1.2660-50 support-zone. On the further downturn below 1.2650, the pair becomes vulnerable to plunge towards 1.2410 – 1.2400 support region, encompassing 23.6% Fibo of the said move and the 100-day SMA that indicate strong medium term support for the pair. On the upside break of 1.3030 recent highs, also surpassing the three month old ascending trend-line resistance & 2009 highs, near 1.3060-70, give room for the pair's extended upward trajectory towards 1.3300 area with 1.3150-80 resistance being intermediate halt.

USDCHF

On a pullback from 0.9650 resistance level, the USDCHF becomes likely to re-test the 0.9590-85 ascending trend-line support, forming part of short-term "Rising-Wedge" bearish technical pattern. However, a break below 0.9585 confirms the pair's bear move towards 0.9500 area with 61.8% FE, near 0.9555, being intermediate support for the pair. Moreover, a close below 0.9500 negates the pair's chances of near-term advances and can further pull it towards sub-0.9400 support-zone. Should the pair reverses from the 0.9585 support, it can find 0.9650 as an immediate resistance prior to testing formation resistance, near 0.9670, breaking which 100% FE, near 0.9700 round figure mark, can become intermediate resistance to trigger pair's upward trajectory towards 0.9800 area.



“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

Technical Update - EURGBP, EURJPY, EURCAD and EURAUD

EURGBP

The pair seems to have found some support near 0.6935-30 area, marking 61.8% Fib. expansion level and also coinciding with a short-term descending trend-line support. This descending trend-line support seems to constitute towards formation of a bullish reversal pattern, Falling Wedge, on daily chart. Hence, from current levels the pair seems more likely to make a fresh attempt to move back above 0.7000 round figure mark and test an intermediate horizontal support turned resistance near 0.7060-65 area. A decisive move above this immediate resistance is likely to be followed by a further up-move towards its next major resistance near 0.7150-60 area, marking another descending trend-line resistance forming the upper trend-line of the bullish Falling Wedge chart pattern. Meanwhile on the downside, 61.8% Fib. expansion level near 0.6940-20 zone might continue providing immediate support for the pair. A decisive weakness below this strong support and a subsequent drop below 0.6900 mark would negate the bullish chart-pattern formation, thus opening room for continuing the near-term downward trajectory towards its next major support near 0.6750 area, marking 100% Fib. expansion level.

EURJPY

On daily chart, the pair seems to form a bearish Head and Shoulders chart pattern, which would be confirmed only once the pair decisively breaks below neck-line support near 133.00 region. From current level, a drop below 134.50-40 horizontal support is likely to be followed by an immediate drops towards retesting the neck-line support. Further, a decisive break below the neck-line support seems to accelerate the fall immediately towards 131.60-50 support area and fall could further get extended towards 130.00 psychological mark support. Meanwhile, a move above 135.50 immediate horizontal resistance area is likely to confront a strong resistance near 137.00 horizontal region. A decisive move above 137.00 mark might negate the bearish Head and Shoulders pattern formation, thus paving way for a retest of the very important resistance near 140.00 mark.

EURCAD

On Tuesday, the pair decisively strengthened above a short-term symmetrical triangular formation on 4-hourly chart, which constituted towards formation of a bullish continuation pattern, Pennant. Hence, from current levels the pair seems more likely continue with its upward trajectory initially towards 1.4330-50 resistance area, which might eventually get extended towards 1.4500 resistance area, marking 2015 highs. On the downside, 1.4150 level now seems to provide immediate support for the pair. Failure to hold this immediate support, might immediately drag the pair back towards 1.4100-1.4080 area, representing 23.6% Fib. retracement level of June low to July high up-swing. Further, a decisive weakness below 23.6% Fib. retracement level might negate the bullish expectations and might trigger extension of the corrective move towards its next support at 38.2% Fib. retracement level near 1.3970-60 area.

EURAUD

On daily chart, the pair continues to oscillate within a short-term ascending trend-channel formation, intact since late April 2015. The pair is currently witnessing a pull-back after testing the upper trend-line resistance of the channel and hence weakness below 1.4700 mark now seems to be followed by additional weakness towards testing the lower trend-line support of the channel, currently near 1.4600-1.4580 area. A decisive drop below 1.4600, marking a break below the ascending trend-channel, might negate the bullish continuation pattern, thus triggering extension of the near-term corrective move towards its next major support near 1.4400 horizontal zone. Meanwhile, a move back above 1.4800 round figure mark now seems to provide the required momentum to lift the pair beyond 1.5000 psychological mark resistance and continue with its appreciating move towards testing the upper trend-line resistance of the channel, currently near 1.5200 mark.



“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

Technical Outlook - Important AUD Pairs

AUDUSD

Ever since the AUDUSD broke 0.7550-30 support area, encompassing April lows, it kept trading near the 61% FE of its November 2014 – April 2015 decline; however, short-term descending trend-channel favors the pair's decline towards 0.7250-40 horizontal support, breaking which 0.7135-30 can provide intermediate rest to the pair before it could plunge to 0.7000 round figure mark. Further, a successful break of 0.7000 mark on a closing basis can extend the pair's decline towards 0.6900 area, including 100% FE of the said downturn. On the upside, the channel resistance, presently near 0.7450, can restrict the pair's immediate up-move, breaking which 0.7530-50 support-turned-resistance region could limit the pair's near-term advance. On the sustained break of 0.7550, the pair can target 0.7650, 50-day SMA, prior to extending its upward trajectory towards 0.7820 – 50 multiple resistance region, which is likely to restrict the pair's medium-term up-move.

GBPAUD

Failure to sustain the break of 100% FE of its November 2014 – February 2015 up-move on Tuesday, fuelled GBPAUD towards 2.1150 area on Wednesday, signaling further upside challenging current month high of 2.1266; however, two-month old ascending trend-channel resistance, near 2.1390 – 2.1400 area, could continue provide short-term pullbacks to the pair. On the failure to reverse from the channel resistance, the pair could quickly rally towards 2.1500 round figure mark prior to targeting 2.1660-70 resistance zone. Alternatively, 2.1000 – 2.0985, including the 100% FE, could provide immediate support to the pair, breaking which channel support, near 2.0770-60 becomes strong downside support to restrict the pair's near-term decline. Should the pair fails to stop its downside near 2.0760, it becomes vulnerable to plunge towards 2.0550 horizontal support region before testing the 50-day SMA, near 2.0300 region currently.

AUDJPY

Reversal from February lows, near 89.30, fuelled the AUDJPY rally towards 91.50 region where 92.50-60 area, including 23.6% Fibo of its November 2014 – February 2015 decline, provides immediate resistance while the near-term decline is capped by the 91.00 – 90.80 support-zone. However, comparative strength of the JPY can term the pair's recent up-move as only a pullback and can recall the 89.30 level on the break of 90.80. Should it successfully close below 89.30, the 88.00 and the 87.40 are likely intermediate supports before it could test 86.30 important horizontal support. Should the current up-move surpasses 92.60 on a closing basis, the pair can rally towards 93.70-80 and the 94.50 resistances prior to targeting 95.00 strong resistance, encompassing 200-day SMA and the eight month old descending trend-line resistance.

AUDNZD

Even if the AUDNZD failed to break 1.1375-85 important resistance region, by falling to three month old ascending trend-channel support, currently near 1.1130, it is likely to witness a pullback towards 1.1250, 1.1295 and the 1.1325; however, a a run above 1.1325 on a closing basis could fuel the pair's upward trajectory towards surpassing its 1.1424 high, signaling an up-move to 1.1500 round figure mark. On the downside, a close below 1.1130, could witness 1.1100 – 1.1090 support area, including 23.6% Fibo of its April-July up-move, breaking which 1.1000 round figure mark is likely an intermediate support for the pair before it could test 1.0875 – 1.0900 support region that restrict the pair's near-term decline.



“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

Technical Overview - NZDUSD, EURNZD and GBPNZD

NZDUSD

After managing to hold 0.6500 mark on daily closing basis, the pair extended its recovery and is currently hovering near 0.6660-70 resistance area, marking the upper trend-line of a short-term descending trend-channel formation on daily chart. A clear break above the descending trend-channel resistance seems to help the pair to extend its recovery, initially towards 0.6735-40 resistance area and further towards 0.6800-0.6820 resistance area. Meanwhile, reversal from the current resistance area now seems to find immediate support near 0.6620-0.6600 area. Failure to hold this immediate support now seems to open room for continuing the near-term downward trajectory, possibly even below 0.6500 round figure mark, towards testing the lower trend-line support of the descending channel, currently near 0.6410-0.6400 area.

EURNZD

On daily chart, the pair clearly seems to have broken below a short-term ascending trend-channel, but has managed to hold an intermediate support near 1.6350-40 area. A decisive break below this intermediate support would confirm the break-down, thus paving way for a near-term corrective move towards 1.6110-1.6100 support area, marking 23.6% Fib. retracement level of April to July up-swing. Meanwhile on the upside, the descending trend-channel break-down point, currently near 1.6560-70 area, now seems to act as immediate resistance. A decisive move back above this immediate resistance might negate the near-term bearish outlook and seems to provide the required momentum to help the pair in clearing 1.6800 round figure mark resistance towards testing 1.6850-60 resistance area.

GBPNZD

Even as the pair remains within a well-established ascending trend-channel, it seems to have move in a short-term descending trend-channel formation on 4-hourly chart. However, for confirmation of a reversal the pair need to decisively break below an important support confluence near 2.3260-50 area, comprising of the lower trend-line of both, the ascending and the descending trend-channels. A decisive break below this strong support seems to immediately drag the pair towards a support marked by 23.6% Fib. retracement level of its up-move from April lows to July highs, near 2.2900 area. In the near-term, the weakness could further get extended towards 38.2% Fib. retracement level support near 2.2210-2.2200 area with intermediate support at July lows, near 2.2700 level. On the upside, 2.3500 mark now seems to act as immediate resistance, which if conquered seems to immediately lift the pair towards testing the upper trend-line resistance of the short-term descending trend-channel, currently near 2.3700 level. A decisive move above 2.3700 level clearly seems to assist the pair in reclaiming 2.4000 mark and continue with its upward trajectory towards testing its next major resistance near 2.4400 region, coinciding with the upper trend-line resistance of the medium-term ascending trend-channel.





“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

Technical Outlook - USDJPY, GBPJPY, CADJPY and CHFJPY

USDJPY

Failure to break 120.80-60 support region, encompassing 50% Fibo of its December 2014 – June 2015 up-move, fuelled the USDJPY rally towards more than a month's high; however, 124.40-50 area is likely restricting the pair's immediate up-move, signaling a bit of pullback towards 123.40, including 23.6% Fibo. and the 50-day SMA, near 123.00 round figure mark. With an extended decline below 123.00 on the closing basis can immediately trigger the pair's downturn to test 121.90-80, breaking which it becomes vulnerable to plunge towards 120.80-60 zone. Alternatively, a close above 124.50 can fuel the pair's rally towards challenging the year's high of 125.85, with 125.00 psychological mark being intermediate resistance. Moreover, the pair's break of 125.85 can quickly support its upward trajectory to target 127.50 mark; though, 61.8% FE of the said move, near 126.80, may become an intermediate resistance.

GBPJPY

The 194.00 – 194.50 broad resistance region seems to stall GBPJPY's reversal from 100-day SMA and the 50% Fibo of April – June up-move, indicating the 192.20-192.00 immediate support area, followed by the 23.6% Fibo, near 191 round figure mark. Moreover, a sustained break below 191 could witness 189.50, 187.80 prior to re-testing 100-day SMA, near 185.70. Should the pair manages to break 194.50 on a closing basis, it can quickly test the multiple highs near 195.80, breaking which 197.00 psychological level can provide intermediate resistance to fuel the pair's upward trajectory towards 198.00 mark, as indicated by the 61.8% FE of the said move.

CADJPY

CADJPY's reversal from 97.00 mark seems to target 94.35-70 broad support area, including 23.6% Fibo of its December – February decline; however, a break of which is less expected and can pullback the pair towards 96.00, 96.40 and the 97.00 resistances. Should it manage to break 97.00 mark on a closing basis, it could rally to 97.70-80 region, including 100-day SMA and the 50% Fibo, prior to targeting 98.50 and the 99.30 levels. Meanwhile, a break below 94.35 can quickly pull the pair towards testing 93.50, breaking which 93.00 and the year's low of 91.70 are likely consecutive supports for the pair. Should it manages to trade below 91.70, it becomes vulnerable to plunge towards 90.70-60 support area, including 2014 lows.

CHFJPY

Reversal from four month old ascending trend-line support, coupled with 100-day SMA fueled the CHFJPY rally to 131.30 during last week; however, a month old descending trend-line resistance, which currently restricts the pair's immediate up-move near 129.70, pulled back the pair. Should the pair witnesses a pullback from current levels, it can witness 128.50 level prior to testing 128 – 127.90 support area, including the mentioned trend-line and the 100-day SMA. Moreover, a break below 127.90 on a closing basis can make the pair vulnerable to target 125.70-60 support region, with 126.50, including 50% Fibo, being intermediate support. Alternatively, a break of 129.70 is likely to boost the pair's upward trajectory towards 131.40-50 resistance area, breaking which the 133 and the 134.70 are likely important resistance to determine the pair's near-term advance. Given the pair's ability to break 134.70 on a closing basis, it can quickly surpass 136 resistance-zone.



“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

Technical Overview - GBPCAD, GBPCHF and GBPAUD

GBPCAD

Extending its strong upward trajectory, as depicted by formation of an ascending trend-channel on daily chart, the pair earlier this week tested its highest level since Oct. 2008. Although, the pair continues to find difficulty in sustaining its strength above 2.0300 level, it however, has not witnessed any serious profit taking move at higher levels. From current levels, on a sustained move above 2.0260-70 area the pair seems to make a fresh attempt to move back above 2.0300 mark and test 2.0340-50 resistance area. Should the pair manage to conquer this strong resistance zone, it could possibly be headed towards testing its next major resistance near 2.0500 area, also coinciding with the upper trend-line resistance of the ascending channel. Alternatively, should the pair start witnessing some profit taking move and drop below 2.0120-100 immediate horizontal support, it seems to extend the near-term corrective move towards testing an important support confluence near 1.9880-70 area, comprising of the lower trend-line support of the channel and 23.6% Fib. retracement level of May lows to multi-year highs touched earlier this week.

GBPCHF

Although the pair seems to have decisively cleared 200-day SMA strong hurdle, it now seems to confront another strong resistance near 1.5050-60 area, marking daily closing high tested in March 2015. From current levels, a weakness below 1.4800 immediate horizontal support seems to extend the reversal from an important resistance back towards retesting 200-day SMA support, currently near 1.4680-60 area, also coinciding with a short-term ascending trend-line support visible on daily chart. Meanwhile on the upside, 1.4900-10 level now seems to act as immediate resistance and a decisive strength above this immediate resistance seems to boost the pair back towards reclaiming 1.5000 psychological mark and test the very important resistance near 1.5050-60 zone. Moreover, a sustained move above 1.5050 resistance has the potential to continue supporting the possibilities of a further near-term up-move towards testing its next major resistance near 1.5230-50 area.

GBPAUD

Although the pair continues scaling new highs, it still hasn't been able to conquer the upper trend-line resistance of an ascending trend-channel held since Sept. 2014. Should the pair manage to break through this important resistance, it seems to open room for continuing the pair's near-term appreciating move towards its next major resistance near 1.2730-50 region. Meanwhile, reversal from current resistance area and a subsequent drop back below 2.1100 immediate support seems to drag the pair immediately towards 2.1000 mark, which if broken might now trigger a near-term corrective move towards a strong horizontal support near 2.0550 region.




“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

Technical Outlook - EURCHF, CADCHF and AUDCHF

EURCHF

Even after rallying to more than a month's high, 100-day EMA and the 23.6% Fibo of January – February up-move, between 1.0560 – 1.0570 area, strongly restricts current up-move of the EURCHF. However, a sustained break of the same could immediately fuel the pair towards 1.0670-75 resistance-zone, breaking which chances of the pair's rally towards 1.0760-65 can't be denied. Should the pair extends its upward trajectory beyond 1.0765, it is likely to surpass year's high,1.0811 level, targeting 1.0900 area, including 61.8% FE of the said move. Given the pair's inability to break 1.560-70 resistance area, 1.0450-40 could provide immediate support to the pair, breaking which 1.0380 and the 50% Fibo, near 1.0300 round figure mark. Moreover, on a break below 1.0300, the pair becomes vulnerable to plunge towards 1.0100 area, with 1.0230-40 being intermediate rest.

AUDCHF

Reversal from 0.7120 indicates the AUDCHF decline towards 0.6930-40 support area; however, two-month old descending trend-channel support, near the January lows, cab restrict the pair's short-term decline, breaking which the pair becomes vulnerable to plunge towards 0.6750 and the 61.8% FE of September 2014 – January 2015 decline, near 0.6600 – 0.6580 support region. On the upside, a break above 0.7120 can witness strong resistance of the descending trend-channel and the 50-day EMA, presently between 0.7175-80 region while a break of which can fuel the pair's upward trajectory towards 0.7290 – 0.7300 resistance area that seem providing strong medium-term resistance. Further, a sustained trading above 0.7300 can support the chances for the pair's up-move towards 0.7500 area.

CADCHF

On Thursday, CADCHF plunged to five month lows, 0.7325; however, short-term descending trend-line support, coupled with 61.8% Fibo of its January - March up-move, near 0.7300 round figure mark, could restrict the pair's near-term decline, supporting the pullback towards 0.7430, 50% Fibo, prior to targeting 0.7500 psychological mark, including 50-day EMA and resistance-line of the "Falling-Wedge" Bullish technical formation. On a break above 0.7500 mark, the bullish pattern gets confirmed and the pair could quickly rally towards 0.7700 area, with 0.7630 being intermediate resistance. Alternatively, a break below 0.7300 mark can trigger the pair's decline towards 0.7200 area, breaking which 0.7100 - 0.7090 becomes likely intermediate support prior to pair's re-test of January lows, near 0.6900.



“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

Technical Outlook - EURUSD, USDCHF, AUDUSD and NZDUSD

EURUSD

The pair's recovery from 1.0800-20 support area seems to face hurdle at the upper trend-line resistance of a descending trend-channel formation on 4-hourly chart. From current levels the pair could possibly find immediate support near 1.1015-1.1000 horizontal area, which if broken seems to drag the pair to its next horizontal support near 1.0920-1.0900 support zone. Further, a decisive break below 1.0900 support region now seems to provide the required momentum to drag the pair below a very important support near 1.0800 area towards testing its next major support near 1.0650 level, also nearing the lower trend-line support of the descending channel. Meanwhile on the upside, 1.1100-20 region, representing the upper trend-line resistance of the channel, might continue to act as immediate strong resistance for the pair. A sustained strength above this immediate resistance opens room for an immediate upside move towards testing its next resistance near 1.1220-40 area. Moreover, a decisive strength above 1.1220-40 resistance area might continue supporting further near-term appreciating move for the pair towards testing a very important resistance near 1.1450 level.

USDCHF

Extending its near-term upward trajectory, as depicted by formation of an ascending trend-channel on 4-hourly chart, the pair on Tuesday cleared its intermediate resistance near 0.9650. Hence, from current levels seems more likely to continue with its appreciating move towards testing its next major resistance near 0.9740-50 area marking the upper trend-line resistance of the channel. However, should the pair fail to capitalise on the momentum and drop back below 0.9650-40 resistance turned support area and subsequently drop back below 0.9600 round figure mark, it could turn vulnerable to towards retesting a very important support near 0.9530-20 area, also coinciding with the lower trend-line support of the ascending channel. Further, a sustained break below the ascending trend-channel support might has the potential to drag the pair towards testing its next major support near 0.9410-0.9400 area.

AUDUSD

After decisively weakening below 61.8% Fib. expansion level, the pair on Monday dropped to its lowest level since April 2009. Although, the pair seems to have recovered a bit from lower levels, it however, now seems to face difficulty in sustaining its strength above 0.7300 mark. Hence, a drop back below 0.7260-50 zone, multi-year lows tested earlier on Tuesday, seems to increase the pair's vulnerability to continue drifting lower towards testing the lower trend-line support, currently near 0.7150 region, of a descending trend-channel formation on daily chart. Meanwhile, a sustained recovery above 0.7300 mark is likely to confront a strong resistance near 0.7370-80 area, 61.8% Fib. expansion level support now turned resistance. A decisive move back above 0.7370-80 resistance area might now trigger a near-term short-covering rally immediately towards its next major resistance near 0.7500 level, also coinciding with the upper trend-line resistance of the descending channel.

NZDUSD

Despite of last week's interest rate cut announcement by the Reserve Bank of New-Zealand, the pair extended its last week's rebound from multi-year lows and now seems to make an attempt to break-out of a descending trend-channel formation, held since April this year. Hence, should the pair manage to clear its immediate barrier near 0.6680-90 area, it seems to make a sharp move immediately towards 0.6770-80 resistance, marking 23.6% Fib. retracement level of its April to July down-leg. Further, a decisive move above this resistance could provide additional boost to the pair in the near-term towards its next resistance at 38.2% Fib. retracement level, near 0.6950-60 zone. Alternatively, should the pair fail to clear its immediate resistance near 0.6680-90 area and subsequently drop back below 0.6600 round figure mark, it could possibly drop back to test 0.6500 mark support and the drop could further get extended towards 0.6450-60 support area. Failure to conquer its immediate resistance and a drop back below multi-year lows might indicate continuation of the downward trajectory towards testing the lower trend-line support of the descending channel, currently near 0.6330-20 level.




“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

GBP Pairs close to important resistance

GBPUSD

On 1-hourly chart, the pair is oscillating within a short-term ascending trend-channel and is now trading close to the upper trend-line resistance of the channel, currently near 1.5650 level, also close to the pair's immediate strong resistance near 1.5670-75 area. A break-out from the ascending trend-channel and a subsequent strength above 1.5670-75 resistance area, seems to extend the up-move initially towards 1.5740 intermediate resistance and eventually towards its next major resistance near 1.5800-10 region. Meanwhile reversal from 1.5650-70 immediate resistance zone is likely to find immediate support near 1.5600 round figure mark, which is closely followed by support at the lower trend-line of the ascending channel, currently near 1.5575-70 area. Failure to hold the lower trend-line support of the channel has the potential to drag the pair back towards retesting sub-1.5500 psychological mark, 1.5470-60 support area.

GBPNZD

On 4-hourly chart, the pair seems to have restricted its move within a short-term descending trend-channel and is currently trading close to 2.3450 resistance, marked by the upper trend-line resistance of the channel. Reversal from the upper trend-line resistance would reaffirm the pair's near-term move within the channel, making it vulnerable to resume its near-term corrective move, initially towards 2.3300-2.3280 intermediate horizontal support and eventually towards the lower trend-line support of the descending channel, currently near 2.3000-2.2980 level. On the upside, a clear break through the upper trend-line resistance of the channel near 2.3450 area, seems to set the stage for an immediate up-move back towards 2.3600 level resistance and further towards 2.3700-20 strong resistance zone.

GBPCHF

Even as the pair remains within a short-term ascending trend-channel formation, visible on daily chart, it continues facing strong hurdle near 1.5050-60 area, where the pair is currently hovering around. A sustained strength above this immediate strong resistance now seems to open room for an immediate up-move towards the upper trend-line resistance of the ascending trend-channel, currently at 1.5170-90 zone, also nearing 1.5200 round figure mark. However, should the pair once again fail to conquer this immediate strong resistance and drop back below 1.5000 psychological mark, it seems more likely to be dragged back towards 1.4900 mark support and continue drifting lower, possibly even below 1.4800 mark, towards testing a very important support confluence near 1.4710-1.4700 mark, comprising of the lower trend-line support of the ascending channel and 200-day SMA.

EURGBP

Following a rebound from 61.8% Fib. expansion level support near 0.6935-30 area, the pair managed to recover towards testing 0.7150-60 resistance area, marking a descending trend-line resistance also forming a part of the possible bullish Falling Wedge chart-pattern on daily chart. The pair, however, failed to conquer the descending trend-line resistance and started drifting lower. From current levels the pair seems more likely to test 0.7040-30 horizontal support and a drop back below this immediate support increases the possibilities of a retest of the very important support confluence near 0.6935-20 zone comprising of 61.8% Fib. expansion level and another descending trend-line support, also constituting towards formation of the Falling Wedge. Meanwhile on the upside, 0.7140-50 area remains immediate strong resistance to conquer. A clear strength above this resistance seems to lift the pair immediately towards 0.7210-20 horizontal resistance and the recovery could further get extended towards its next major resistance near 0.7350-60 area.



“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”