Technical Analysis by Admiral Markets

[Admiral Markets]

Technical Outlook - Important CHF Pairs

USDCHF

Although, short-term ascending trend-channel favors USDCHF up-move, the seven month old descending trend-line, connecting January highs to March highs, coupled with the mentioned channel resistance, near 0.9845-50 area, could provide strong resistance to provide an immediate pullback towards 0.9750 to the pair. Should it break the said 76.4% Fibo level, it can test 0.9650-45 support area prior to targeting channel support, near 0.9600 round figure mark while a break of which could quickly fetch the pair down to 0.9450-45 support-zone, encompassing 200-day EMA and 61.8% Fibo. Moreover, an extended decline below 0.9445 on a closing negates the chances of pair's near-term up-move, making it vulnerable to plunge towards sub-0.9200 region. Alternatively, a daily close above 0.9850 is likely triggering the pair's upward trajectory towards 0.9985 – 1.0000 resistance area before rally to January highs, near 1.0230.

EURCHF

Ever since the EURCHF surpassed 1.0540-50 horizontal resistance, it kept extended the upwards trajectory, negating the recent pullback to 1.0530. The pair currently trades near five month highs, targeting 1.0790 – 1.0800 horizontal resistance, breaking which 200-day EMA and the 50% Fib, near 1.0840-50, can provide strong resistance to restrict the pair's immediate up-move. Given the pair's ability to surpass 1.0850 on a closing basis, it can fuel the up-move towards surpassing 1.1000 psychological mark, testing 61.8% Fibo, near 1.1125-30. Alternatively, a pullback towards 1.0540-30 can witness an extended down-move if it breaks the 1.0400 mark, forcing the pair to plunge towards 1.0250-40 support area, encompassing 23.6% Fibo. Moreover, a decline below 1.0240 is likely offering 1.000 mark before the pair settles for another up-round.

GBPCHF

On Thursday, the GBPCHF negated the short-term ascending trend-channel break, triggered during Wednesday, signaling a pullback towards 1.5050-40 and the 1.4980-70 support areas. However, a break of 1.4970 can witness the channel support, coupled with 50-day EMA, as a strong point to reverse the move, failing to can make the pair vulnerable to plunge towards 1.4400 mark, 23.6% Fibo, with 1.4610 – 1.4600 being the intermediate support region. On the upside, a close above 1.5300 can continue raising the hopes for 1.5545-50 re-test. Moreover, an extended up-move beyond 1.5550 is more likely fueling the pair towards 2011 highs, near 1.5700 round figure mark prior to heading to 1.6000 psychological resistance.

CHFJPY

While the descending triangle keep favoring CHFJPY downturn, formation support, near 126.30, quickly followed by the 200-day EMA, currently at 125.70, can provide a pullback to halt the pair's current decline. Should it fail to reverse from the said EMA, it can plunge to 23.6% Fibo. 124.20 prior to testing 123.00 round figure mark which opens door for the pair's downward trajectory towards 121.00. However, an upside break of the triangle resistance, at 128.00, which currently restricts the pair's immediate up-move, can fuel the pair's up-move towards 129.00, encompassing 50% Fibo and the 129.70-75 area that may extend the pair's surge beyond 131.30, the 61.8% Fibo.



“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

Gold, Silver and US Dollar Index - Near-Term Technical Outlook

US Dollar Index (I.USDX)

The index continues to face difficulty in clearing 98.00 strong hurdle, marking a descending trend-line extending from a multi-year high touched in March through April highs. However, the index has managed to hold a short-term ascending trend-line support extending from June. This combination of 98.00 resistance and the short-term ascending trend-line support seems to constitute towards formation of a bullish Ascending Triangle on daily chart. Hence, a clear break-through 98.00 level, confirming a bullish break-out, is more likely to open room for a fresh leg of up-move for the index, possibly towards 99.50-60 resistance in the near-term. Alternatively, should the pair fail to conquer 98.00 mark resistance and starts drifting lower, it is likely to find support at the ascending trend-line, currently near 97.40-20 area. Moreover, a decisive break below the ascending trend-line support, negating the Ascending Triangular formation, is likely to continue dragging the index lower, initially towards 96.00 round figure mark and eventually towards its next major support near 95.60-50 horizontal level.

Gold

The yellow metal remains in a well-established downtrend, as depicted by formation of a descending trend-channel on weekly chart. Currently the metal is trading close to a very important support confluence near 1080-70 region, comprising of the lower trend-line support of the channel and 50% Fib. retracement level of its 10-year long bull-run that started in 2001 and peaked in 2011. Hence, a decisive break and close below this strong support has the potential to continue exerting pressure on the yellow metal initially towards 1000 psychological mark support, which might further get extended towards its next major support near 900 mark also coinciding with 61.8% Fib. retracement level. Meanwhile, the metal has failed to move beyond 1100 mark in the current week and thus become immediate level to watch for. Rebound from current support level, leading to a move above 1100 mark, is likely to trigger a short-covering rally immediately towards 1140 horizontal resistance. Moreover, sustained strength above 1140 level resistance might further boost the pair towards next major resistance near 1235-40 region, with intermediate resistance at 1200 round figure mark.


Silver

Similar to Gold, Silver too is oscillating within a well-established medium-term descending trend-channel. However, since last three weeks, the white metal has been moving within a tight range between 15.00 on the upside and 14.35 on the downside, which is close to 100% Fib. expansion level support near 14.00 level. Hence, a clear break on either side might now generate the required momentum that could possibly decide the near-term trajectory of the metal. Should it manage to strengthen above 15.00 mark, it is likely to immediately aim towards 15.50 intermediate horizontal resistance and might even extend the momentum beyond 16.00 mark towards testing the upper trend-line resistance of the descending channel, currently near 16.20. Meanwhile, weakness below 14.40-35 area is likely to be followed by an immediate drop towards 100% Fib. expansion level support near 13.90-80 area. A sustained break and close below 14.00 mark might now trigger a fresh leg of downward momentum, initially towards 12.90-80 intermediate support and eventually towards testing 11.00 mark support, representing the lower trend-line support of the channel.




“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

Technical Outlook - EURJPY, GBPAUD and AUDCHF

EURJPY

Having plunged from 140.70 – 141 resistance region, the EURJPY plunged to 133.20 during early July; however, a steady reversal from the same level, as indicated by the short-term ascending trend-line, favors the pair to challenge 136.80 – 137.20 resistance-zone, encompassing 50-day SMA. Should the pair manage to break the same, it can quickly move towards 140.70-141 area with 138 being intermediate resistance. On an extended up-move beyond 141, the pair can surge to 140.80 – 145.00 area where in the 142 – 142.20 is likely a rest for its upward trajectory. On the downside, the said ascending trend-line, near 135.50-40 presently, provides an immediate support to the pair, breaking which it can plunge to 134, 133.20 and the 132.20 levels prior to testing 131.60-50 support-zone encompassing 23.6% Fibo of its December 2014 to April 2015 decline. Moreover, a sustained downturn below 131.50 could force the pair to test 128.00 mark.

GBPAUD

Even after breaking the three month old steeply rising ascending trend-channel, the GBPAUD still trades near 100% FE of its November 2014 to February 2015 up-move, break of which could confirm the pair's plunge towards 2.0650-40 support-zone, encompassing 50-day SMA & 23.6% Fibo of November 2014 to July 2015 up-turn. Should the pair extends the decline post 2.0640, it becomes likely to test 2.0150, including 61.8% FE and the 398.2% Fibo, prior to testing 1.9850-45 support region. On the upside, a daily close above 2.1150 would negate the recent break out, signaling the pair's rally towards 2.1340-50 and the recent high of 2.1530. Moreover, pair's advance beyond 1.1530 is more likely to witness the channel resistance, near 2.1750-60 area, that would likely providing a pullback to the pair's surge.

AUDCHF

A sustained break of short-term descending trend-channel resistance, coupled with 50-day SMA, seems fueling the AUDCHF up-move towards 0.7330-40 resistance area, breaking which 0.7470-75 and the 0.7560, including 38.2% Fibo, is likely consecutive resistances prior to the pair's rally towards 0.7665-70. Should the pair continue to advance above 0.7670, also surpasses 0.7740, it can rally to 0.7900 mark. On the downside, the said 0.7150-40 zone becomes an immediate support, breaking which the pair can plunge to sub-0.7000 mark while a continuous decline below 0.7000 can witness 0.6850-40, channel support, which could provide a pullback to the pair.



“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

Technical Overview - EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and AUDUSD

EURUSD

Although the pair managed to rebound from an important support near 1.0800 mark, it still remains within a short-term established down-trend as depicted by formation of a descending trend-channel. The pair is currently trading near 1.1030-40 area, close to the upper trend-line resistance of the channel. A decisive strength above this immediate resistance now seems to open room for extension of the near-term recovery move towards testing its next major resistance near 1.1400 level, marking a descending trend-line resistance extending from Feb. 2015 high through highs tested in May and June. Meanwhile, reversal from current resistance zone now seems to find immediate support near 1.0980 level, which is closely followed by support near 1.0930-25 zone. Reversal from trend-channel resistance and a subsequent drop below immediate support levels now seems to drag the pair back towards testing the very important horizontal support near 1.0800 mark. Moreover, a decisive weakness below 1.0800 mark would now set the stage for resumption of the downward trajectory towards testing sub-1.0700 level, marking the lower trend-line support of the channel currently near 1.0650-40 area.


GBPUSD

After once again failing to conquer 1.5660-80 strong horizontal resistance, the pair dropped to test but hold the lower trend-line support of a short-term ascending trend-channel formation on daily chart. Moreover, now it has been nearly 1-month that the pair has oscillating within a broad trading range between 1.5670-80 resistance and 1.5450 support. The near-term range-bound movement suggests consolidation before attempting a big move on either side and hence the pair's near-term direction would be determined only once it breaks-out of the trading range. Should the pair decisively weaken below 1.5450 support, marking a break below the ascending trend-channel, and subsequently drop below 200-day SMA support, currently near 1.5380 region, it might accelerate the near-term weakness immediately towards testing sub-1.5200 mark, representing 23.6% Fib. retracement level of its big downfall from July 2014 highs to a multi-year low tested in April 2015. The drop could further get extended towards testing the very important psychological mark support near 1.5000 level. Alternatively, should the pair manage to sustain its strength above 1.5660-80 strong horizontal resistance, it seems to immediately dart towards 1.5770-80 intermediate resistance and eventually aim towards testing 50% Fib. retracement level resistance near 1.5880-1.5990 zone.


USDJPY

The pair's near-term upward trajectory, as depicted by a short-term ascending trend-channel formation on 1-hourly chart, seems to face serious headwind near 125.00 mark. Hence, a break through 125.00 mark resistance has the potential to lift the pair immediately towards testing the upper trend-line resistance of the ascending channel, currently near 125.65-85 area, also coinciding with multi-year high level touched in early June this year. Moreover, a sustained strength above 125.65-85 resistance area, marking a break-out of the ascending channel has the potential to further accelerate the up-move towards its next major resistance near 127.00 mark, level not seen after May 2002. Meanwhile, failure to conquer 125.00 mark resistance and a subsequent drop back below 124.70-65 support might drag the pair back towards testing the lower trend-line support of the channel, currently near 124.40-30 area. Further, a clear break below the lower trend-line support of the channel seems to trigger a near-term corrective move back towards 122.50 horizontal support region, which could further get extended towards its next major support near 120.60-50 area.


AUDUSD

The pair started reversing its sharp recovery, led by status-quo RBA monetary policy decision, from an important resistance confluence near 0.7440-50 area, comprising of comprising of 23.6% Fib. retracement level of its May to July downfall and the upper trend-line resistance of the descending channel formation visible on daily chart. From current levels, should the pair continue drifting lower and drop back below 0.7300 mark support it seems to resume its previous weakening trend to possibly drop below its recent lows, and even below 0.7100 round figure mark, towards testing the lower trend-line support of the channel, currently near 0.7050-40 zone. Meanwhile, should the pair manage to hold 0.7300 mark support and start recovering it might continue facing strong resistance at the upper trend-line resistance of the channel, currently near 0.7430-50 area. Only a decisive strength above this strong resistance, marking a break-out from the descending channel, might negate any near-term bearish expectations and sets the stage for extension of the recovery momentum towards its next major resistance near 0.7590-0.7600 area, coinciding with 38.2% Fib. retracement level.




“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

Technical Outlook - USDCAD, EURCAD, GBPCAD and CADJPY

USDCAD

On Monday, the USDCAD plunged to the lowest level in a month, testing short-term ascending trend-channel support, near 1.3000 – 1.2990, that restricted the pair's further decline, fueling its bounce during early Tuesday. From the current level, 1.3100 – 1.3105 can restrict the pair's immediate up-move, breaking which the pair can leap towards the channel resistance, currently near 1.3300 round figure mark; though, recent highs near 1.3200-20 area may become intermediate rest during upward trajectory. Alternatively, a break of 1.2990 on a closing basis, could immediate pullback the pair towards 1.2900 mark, 23.6% Fibo of its recent up-move, and the 1.2800 – 1.2830 horizontal resistance. Should the pair extends the decline below 1.2800 on a closing basis, 50-day SMA, near 1.2700 round figure mark and the 50% Fibo, near 1.2550-60 area are likely consecutive supports to place for the pair sellers.

EURCAD

Even if the four month old ascending trend-channel keep supporting the EURCAD up-move, 1.4490 – 1.4500 horizontal resistance, that has restricted the pair's up-move consecutive since August 2014, may again provide strong resistance to tame down the pair's rally. However, ability on the part of the pair to break 1.4500 on a closing basis could trigger the pair's surge to 1.4730-50 area with 1.4600 being intermediate resistance. Moreover, an extended rally beyonf 1.4750 may find 1.4900 area as a strong level to break. On the downside, 1.4250 and the channel support, near 1.4170, quickly followed by the 1.4070-60 support-zone, including 50-day SMA and 61.8% Fibo of August 2014 to April 2015 decline, are likely support levels that the pair trades should take care off. With a bit more decline below 1.4060, the pair could become vulnerable to plunge towards sub-1.3900 area.

GBPCAD

Failure to break the four month old ascending trend-channel resistance pulled back the GBPCAD during last week, signaling the channel support re-test, near 2.0070, breaking which 2.0035, 23.6% Fibo of the recent up-move, and the 1.9980, 61.8% FE of its November 2013 to February 2015 up-move, are likely following levels that the pair could target. However, a break of 1.9980 could become decisive for the pair traders that open doors for the pair's plunge towards 1.9700 area. On the upside, 2.0420-30, followed by the recent highs of 2.0620-30, are likely immediate resistances for the pair before it could target the channel resistance, presently at 2.0760. An extended up-move by the pair beyond 2.0760 negates the channel formation, making it rally towards 2.0900 round figure mark.

CADJPY

Having bounced from 94.10 – 94.00 horizontal support, CADJPY managed to break the short-term descending trend-line, signaling 96.50 level on a close above 95.80 while a close below 95.00 mark signals the 94.60 and the 94.10 – 94.00 re-test. Given the pair's ability to break 94.00 on a closing basis can quickly pullback the pair towards 93.00 prior to targeting the year's low near 91.70. However, pair's ability break 96.50 may find it difficult to break 97.00 – 97.10 area, breaking which 97.60-80 resistance-zone, including 100-day SMA and the 50% Fibo, may restrict the pair's near-term advance.



“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

Technical Outlook – Important NZD Pairs

NZDUSD

Failure to sustain the break of 0.6500 – 0.6490 horizontal support, consisting consecutive stops marked during July and early August, fuelled the NZDUSD towards challenging four month old descending trend-channel resistance, currently near 0.6610, breaking which the pair could quickly rally to 0.6740-50 horizontal resistance, encompassing the 50-day SMA. Should the pair manages to break 0.6750 on a closing basis, the 0.6940-50 and the 0.7025-30 are likely resistances that the pair could target prior to signaling 0.7200 area. Meanwhile, the said horizontal region, near 0.6500 – 0.6490, could continue acting as a near-term strong support while a close below the same is likely to be followed by the 0.6400 round figure mark, including 61.8% FE of its June-July decline. Should the pair extends its downtrend below 0.6400, the mentioned channel support and the 100% FE, near 0.6200 psychological mark becomes a decisive level to restrict the pair's decline.

EURNZD

Short-term ascending trend-channel formation keep favoring the EURNZD up-move, that fueled the pair to mark fresh two year highs on Wednesday; however, the channel resistance, presently near 0.7075, seems restricting the pair's immediate rally, making it test 61.8% FE level, near 0.6850. Should the pair fails to stop its recent pullback, the 0.6800 may become an intermediate support before it could test sub-0.6700 area; though, pair's decline below 0.6700 mark is likely to be stopped by the channel support, near 0.6550. On the upside, a break of 0.7075 is likely to witness 100% FE, near 0.7170 and the 0.7200 round figure mark while a successive up-move beyond 0.7200 may target the 2013 highs of 0.7270.

NZDJPY

Ever since the NZDJPY broke below 83.50 horizontal mark, it kept the decline running toward another important horizontal support 80.50-40; however, the pair seems blocked between these region since early July and a break on either side will become decisive to determine near-term moves. On the downside, a break of 80.40, which is more likely, could fetch the pair to 79.80 and the 79.00 round figure mark, including 76.4% Fibo of its June 2013 to April 2014 up-move. Moreover a break of 79.00 is likely making the pair vulnerable to plunge towards 77.50-40 support area. On the upside, a daily close above 83.50, can quickly fuel the pair towards 50% Fibo of 84.20, breaking which the 85.70-75 region becomes an important resistance-zone that could trigger the pair's rally towards filling up its June gap near 86.80.

AUDNZD

Even if the short-term descending trend-line keep favoring the AUDNZD decline, 50-day SMA, near 1.1125 presently, could restrict the pair's current decline, failure to do the same can continue extending the pair's downtrend towards 1.1000 round figure mark, near to 38.2% Fibo of May-July up-move. Should the pair declines below 1.1000, the 1.0930 and the 1.0880-70 horizontal levels are important to forecast its near-term moves. Alternatively, 1.1220, quickly followed by the mentioned trend-line, currently near 1.1295 – 1.1300, may restrict the pair's immediate up-move, breaking which 1.1370-80 and the 1.1425, including July high are likely consecutive levels that the pair could target during its upward trajectory towards 1.1550, 61.8% FE of the said move.





“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

Technical Outlook - Important GBP Pairs

EURGBP

The pair has decisively conquered a descending trend-line resistance, constituting towards a bullish Falling Wedge chart pattern formation on daily chart, suggesting continuation of its near-term upward trajectory. Although, the pair seems to face some intermediate resistance near 0.7170 level, but seems more likely to surpass this intermediate resistance and aim towards testing 0.7200-10 resistance area representing 50% Fib. retracement level of May to July down-leg. Considering that the pair has confirmed a break-out from a bullish chart-pattern, it could possibly extend the up-move towards its next major resistance near 0.7350-70 area with 61.8% Fib. retracement level near 0.7270 acting as intermediate resistance. Meanwhile, the descending trend-line resistance break point, near 0.7100 mark, now seems to protect immediate downside. Should the pair fail to hold this immediate support and subsequently drop below 23.6% Fib. retracement level support near 0.7070-60 zone, it could possibly extend the fall back towards retesting sub-0.7000 mark support near 0.6985-80 area.

GBPNZD

The pair is once again reversing from 2.4000 important resistance, thus forming a bearish Multiple-Tops chart-pattern. The pattern, however, will be confirmed only once the pair decisively breaks below an important horizontal support near 2.3400-2.3380 zone, also nearing 50% Fib. retracement level of its upswing from July lows to multiple-tops strong resistance. A sustained weakness below this important support, leading to a drop below 50% retracement level support near 2.3350 level, now seems to drag the pair immediately towards testing 61.8% Fib. retracement level support near 2.3200 mark. In the near-term the weakness could further get extended, possibly even below 2.3000 round figure mark, towards its next major support near 2.2920-2.2900 region. Immediate downside support is pegged at 38.2% Fib. retracement level near 2.3510-2.3500 area. Meanwhile, a bounce back from current levels is likely to confront immediate resistance near 2.3700 mark, representing 23.6% Fib. retracement level, which if conquered could provide momentum towards testing next horizontal resistance near 2.3840-50 zone. However, 2.4000 mark might continue acting as strong upside resistance and only a decisive strength above this strong resistance might negate any near-term bearish outlook for the pair, thus opening room for continuing the pair's upward trajectory towards its next major resistance near 2.4350-70 area.

GBPAUD

After failing to sustain its strength above 2.1500 mark, nearing the upper trend-line resistance of an ascending trend-channel formation on daily chart, the pair fell sharply to drop back below 2.1200 mark. From current levels the pair seems more likely to continue drifting lower towards retesting 2.0900-2.0880 horizontal support area. Further, sustained weakness below this immediate support now seems to trigger a near-term corrective move for the pair, initially towards 2.0520-20.500 mark and eventually towards its previous strong resistance now turned support near 2.0000 psychological mark, also coinciding with the lower trend-line support of the channel. On the upside, 2.1250-60 zone followed by 2.1400 level now seems to act as immediate resistance area. Should the pair manage to clear these hurdles, the momentum now seems to assist the pair in conquering the very important 2.1500 resistance and scale higher towards its next resistance near 2.1700 mark, with an expectation of continuing the near-term upward trajectory towards 2.2000 mark psychological resistance.

GBPJPY

On short-term chart, the pair seems to oscillate within an equidistant channel, with slightly positive inclination. The pair is currently reversing from the upper trend-line resistance of the channel and a subsequent drop below 193.40 immediate horizontal support seems to make it vulnerable towards testing the lower trend-line support of the channel, currently near 191.60-50 area. Alternatively, should the pair continue holding above 193.40 support and move back above 194.20-30 horizontal resistance, it seems to possibly make a fresh attempt to clear 195.00 mark resistance towards testing the upper trend-line resistance of the channel, currently near 195.40-50 region. Moreover, sustained strength above 195.40-50 area would mark a break-out on long-term charts, thus opening room for further near-term appreciating move towards 197.30-50 area.



“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

Technical Outlook – USDCHF, EURCHF, GBPCHF and NZDCHF

USDCHF

USDCHF's aggression from June lows, as marked by ascending trend-channel formation, confronted the seven month old descending trend-line resistance during last week; however, the said channel resistance pulled back the pair by negating the breakout. Form the current level, channel support, near 0.9680-75, can become an immediate rest, breaking which the 200-day SMA, at present near 0.9540, is likely buffer for the pair's downward trajectory towards 0.9440 and 0.9330-25 lower levels. Meanwhile, the said descending trend-line, near 0.9830, seems nearby resistance that can extend the pair's up-move towards channel resistance, currently at 0.9950. Should the pair strengthens further above 0.9950, the 1.0100 – 1.0120 region, including March highs, is a tough nut to break before the pair could target its January levels above 1.0200 mark.

EURCHF

Having breached the ascending trend-line resistance, connecting highs marked in April, June and July, the EURCHF managed to surpass its February highs and close above 200-day SMA for the first time since January 2014; however, pair couldn't sustain the break and seems pulling back towards 1.0830 and the February high of 1.0800. Should it continue declining below 1.0800, the resistance-turned-support line, presently near 1.0725, becomes an important support to determine the pair's near-term moves, breaking which 1.0670 and the 1.0560-50 are likely consecutive levels to witness during the pair's downturn. On the upside, 1.0920 and the recent highs of 1.0960 can become immediate resistances during the pair's reversal while a sustained up-move beyond 1.0960, also surpassing the 1.1000 round figure mark, is likely targeting the 100% FE of the pair's late-January February up-move, near 1.1250, before targeting the 1.1500 area.

GBPCHF

Three month old ascending trend-channel, coupled with short-term ascending trend-line support, keep favoring the GBPCHF up-move towards January highs of 1.5530-35 area; however, the said channel resistance could continue restricting the pair's near-term advance. Should the pair manages to break 1.5535 on a closing basis, it could trigger the up-move towards 61.8% FE of its January-March up-move, near 1.5850. Moreover, an extended stretch beyond 1.5850 enables the pair to test 1.6000 psychological magnet. Alternatively, the ascending trend-line support, near 1.5170, and the 1.5040 are likely immediate supports to restrict its near-term decline, breaking which the 1.4800 – 1.4785 region, including the channel support, followed by the 200-day SMA & 76.4% Fibo of January decline, near 1.4700 – 1.4690, become important levels to limit further downside of the pair.

NZDCHF

NZDCHF's bounce from 0.6200 area could gain limited fuel as the 0.6500 – 0.6510 horizontal mark restricted the pair's advance, pulling it back towards 50-day SMA, 0.6400 area and the 0.6360-50 multiple support area. Should the pair continue declining below 0.6450, the 0.6285-80 can become an intermediate support before the pair re-test 0.6200 mark. Moreover, a daily close below 0.6200 mark can quickly test the 0.6050 mark prior to targeting 0.5900 support-zone. Should pair gathers enough of momentum to surpass 0.6510 on a closing basis, it can quickly rally to 0.6600 mark prior to targeting 0.6770-80 horizontal resistance area while an extended march beyond 0.6780 can provide considerable strength to the pair towards testing 0.6950-60 resistance zone.





“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

Technical Update - EURAUD, AUDCAD, AUDCHF, AUDJPY

EURAUD

Although the pair remains within a well-established ascending trend-channel, it continues to find difficulty in clearing a strong hurdle near 1.5250-60 area. Should the pair manage to conquer this strong resistance, it seems to make an attempt to test the upper trend-line resistance of the channel, currently near 1.5480-1.5500 region. Alternatively, reversal from this strong resistance and a subsequent drop back below 1.5050 immediate horizontal support now seems to drag the pair back towards testing the lower trend-line support of the channel, currently near 1.4900 mark, also coinciding with 23.6% Fib. retracement level of its up-move from April lows to 2015 high tested on Wednesday. Further, a decisive weakness below 1.4900 level, marking a break below the ascending trend-channel, now seems to extend the near-term corrective move initially towards 1.4750 important support and eventually towards 38.2% Fib. retracement level support near 1.4660-50 zone.

AUDCAD

The pair's recovery from 0.9400 strong resistance area and a subsequent strength above 200-day SMA failed to provide the required momentum to lift the pair beyond 0.9720-40 strong resistance, marking 50% Fib. retracement level of Jan. to June 2015 downfall. The pair is currently hovering around 23.6% Fib. retracement level support, near 0.9530 level. Failure to hold this immediate support seems to set the stage for a retest of 0.9400 important support. Further, a decisive break below this strong support is likely to open room for continuing the pair's near-term downward trajectory towards 61.8% Fib. expansion level support, near 0.9300 level. Meanwhile a move above 0.9600 round figure mark resistance is likely to again confront a strong resistance at an important confluence near 0.9630-40 area, comprising of 200-day SMA and 38.2% Fib. retracement level. Sustained strength above 200-day SMA might further boost the pair towards retesting 0.9700-20 resistance area.

AUDCHF

The pair's bounce from 0.6950-30 important support, leading to a break-out above a well-established descending trend-channel, seems to have lost momentum near 0.7300 mark, representing 50% Fib. retracement level of its down-leg witnessed during April to July. The pair, however, seems to find support at 50-day SMA region, near 0.7110-0.7100 zone, also marking 23.6% Fib. retracement level, which if broken is likely to drag it back towards testing the descending channel resistance break-out point now turned support near 0.7050 level. Should the pair fail to sustain the channel break-out momentum and drop back below 0.7050 level, it could possibly resume the downward trajectory initially towards retesting sub-0.7000 support area, which might further get extended towards 61.8% Fib. expansion level support, near 0.6850 region. Meanwhile on the upside, 0.7200-20 area marking 38.2% Fib. retracement level seems to provide immediate resistance. Decisive strength above 0.7200 mark is likely to be followed by a further up-move back towards 0.7300 mark resistance, which if conquered has the potential to add on to the near-term bounce-back for the pair, immediately towards 61.8% Fib. retracement level resistance near 0.7400 mark.

AUDJPY

Similar to other AUD pairs, AUDJPY too failed to sustain its strength above a key resistance area near 92.40-50 zone and dropped back to 90.40-30 horizontal support. The pair, however, witnessed some buying interest at lower levels on Wednesday, lifting the pair back to 92.00 mark during early trading hours on Thursday. Reversal from important resistance level and a renewed weakness from current levels, dragging the pair back below 91.00 mark, might negate possibilities of any further recovery. The pair then might drop back to retest the very important support near 89.50-30 area, which could further get extended towards its next major support near 88.00 round figure mark. Meanwhile, until the pair continues holding above 91.00 mark support, it could possibly make a fresh attempt to retest 92.00-92.20 resistance area, which if conquered could aim towards testing 92.90-93.00 resistance area, comprising of 50-day SMA and 50% Fib. retracement level of its drop June high to low tested in July.



“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

Technical Outlook - US Dollar Index, Gold and Silver

US Dollar Index [I.USDX]


Even after the break of short-term ascending trend-channel, 50-day & 100-day SMA confluence area, between 96.40-30, seems restricting the index decline towards 95.00 horizontal mark; however, a slid below 95.00 could be limited by the 93.30-10 support-zone. Should the index manages to break 93.10, also breaks the 93.00 round figure on a closing basis, it could plunge to 90.00 psychological magnet. Alternatively, a bounce from the current level may cause the index price to test 97.00 – 97.10 area, breaking which 98.50 and the 99.20 are likely intermediate resistances prior to its test of channel resistance and the horizontal mark, between 99.90 – 100.00 that could become important to determine near-term moves. Moreover, a close above 100.00 mark could provide considerable strength to the index that can fuel it towards 61.8% FE of its October 2014 to April 2015 up-move, near 102.00 round figure mark.

GOLD


Failure to break the descending trend-channel support on weekly chart, near $1070-80 area, pulled back the Gold prices towards breaking short-term descending trend-line resistance, signaling march towards $1130 and the $1147-50 horizontal resistances. However, further up-side by the yellow metal seems to be restricted near $1165-70 area, encompassing the 38.2% Fibo of its January-July decline, 100-day SMA and seven month old descending trend-line. On the downside, $1100 mark provides an immediate support to the bullion prices, breaking which the $1070-80 area against comes into play. Should it sustains the downtrend below $1070, the gold prices may plunge to $1000 psychological magnet.

SILVER


Metal's bounce from $14.50 managed to surpass 50-day SMA and the 23.6% Fibo of its January – July decline, near $15.30; though, $15.70 and the confluence of 100-day SMA together with 38.2% Fibo, near $16.00 mark, may provide strong resistance to restrict the near-term up-move by the Silver prices. However, the metal's ability to close above $16.00 can fuel it towards $17.00 and the $17.30 important resistances. On the downside, a close below $15.30 can quickly pull the metal prices back towards $14.90 area, prior to test $14.50-40 support-zone, breaking which the $14.00 and the $13.50 are likely consecutive supports that the silver prices may target on its continued downtrend.



“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”