Technical Analysis by Admiral Markets

[Admiral Markets]

Technical Outlook – Important CAD Pairs

USDCAD

Even with the failure to break three month old ascending trend-line resistance, the USDCAD seems struggling to break 61.8% FE of its November 2014 to March 2015 up-move, near 1.2930-25 area. However, overbought RSI, coupled with the lower lows in recent days, signal the pair to test 1.2800 – 1.2830 important resistance-turned-support region soon, breaking which 1.2650-30 area, including 38.2% Fibo of its recent up-move and the 50-day EMA could restrict further downside towards 1.2500 round figure mark, that also includes 50% Fibo. Should the pair reverses from current level, 1.3050-55 and the recent highs of 1.3100 psychological mark are likely immediate resistances prior to its 1.3150 trend-line resistance re-test, breaking which 1.3300-20 can provide an intermediate resistance to the pair's upward trajectory towards 100% FE of said move, near 1.3550 mark.

EURCAD

During the early week days, the EURCAD managed to re-test its January highs, near 1.4500 round figure mark; however, inability to break the same currently pulls back the pair towards 1.4250, 76.4% Fibo of December 2014 to April 2015 decline. On a further decline below 1.4250, the pair could plunge towards 1.4050-30 support area, including the support-line of "Rising-Wedge" bearish technical formation and the 61.8% Fibo. Given the pair's ability to break the 1.4030 on a closing basis, it confirms the bearish formation towards 1.3750, with 200-day SMA, 1.3900 mark being intermediate support. On the upside, 1.4500 becomes strong upside resistance, breaking which the formation resistance, near 1.4530, is likely a halt for the pair's upwards trajectory towards 1.4650 and the 1.4800 resistance levels.

AUDCAD

100-day SMA and the four month old descending trend-line seem restricting the near-term advance of AUDCAD; however, the current slew of the pair price is likely to be restricted near 0.9400 – 0.9395 support area while a close below 0.9395 could quickly drag the pair towards 61.8% FE of its January – April decline, near 0.9300 round figure mark, prior to targeting 0.9150-70 important support region, that also includes 2013 lows. On the upside, 0.9550, 100-day SMA, near 0.9585 and the descending trend-line resistance, near 0.9600 psychological mark, are likely important resistances that could restrict the pair's near-term advance. Moreover, a sustained break of 0.9600 could trigger the pair's upward trajectory towards 0.9740-50 resistance zone.

CADJPY

CADJPY's rebound from 94.70-35 support area may find it difficult to break a month old descending trend-line resistance, presently near 95.70, eventually signaling the pair's re-test to the same support-zone. On a further decline below 94.35, the pair can plunge to 93.50 and 93.00 round figure mark prior to targeting sub-92.00 levels, mainly the year's low near 91.70. Meanwhile, a break above 95.70 can trigger the pair's up-move towards 96.45-50 resistance-zone, including 38.2% Fibo of December 2014 to January 2015 decline. Moreover, a further up-move beyond 96.50 is likely to pave the pair's advance to 97.60-80 resistance region, including 100-day SMA and 50% Fibo.




“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

Technical Outlook - Important JPY Pairs

USDJPY

Following a break-through a short-term descending trend-line resistance and a subsequent consolidation, forming a short-term ascending trend-line support, the pair resumed its upward trajectory and has now moved close to its immediate horizontal resistance near 124.40-50 area. Should the pair manage to clear this immediate hurdle, it seems to immediately aim towards 125.00 mark psychological resistance. Further, a sustained strength above 125.00 mark seems to pave way for additional near-term appreciating move towards 126.30-50 area, marking highs touched in March-April 2001. Alternatively, a reversal from current resistance level and a subsequent drop back below 124.00 round figure mark is likely to find immediate support at the short-term ascending trend-line support 123.60-50 area. A clear break below this immediate support seems to trigger a near-term corrective move back towards 122.50 horizontal support region, which could further get extended towards its next major support near 120.60-50 area.

EURJPY

Even as the pair has managed to recover from an intermediate support near 134.50 level, it still has not been able to clear an important resistance near 137.00 mark, which seems to constitute towards formation of a bearish Head & Shoulders chart pattern on daily chart. The pattern, however, would be confirmed only once the pair decisively breaks through the important neck-line support near 133.00 level. From current level, weakness below 136.00 mark is likely to find immediate support near 135.40 area, which is followed by another horizontal support near 134.50 region. A successive break below 134.50 level support is likely to accelerate the fall immediately towards testing the neck-line support, which if broken would confirm the bearish chart-pattern and thus opens room for continuing the downward trajectory in the near-term. Meanwhile on the upside, 137.00 mark might continue providing immediate resistance for the pair. A decisive strength above 137.00 mark might now negate the bearish Head and Shoulders pattern formation and might trigger an immediate rally towards retesting the very important resistance near 140.00 mark.

GBPJPY

After resuming its upward trajectory from a very important support confluence near 185.00 level, comprising of 100-day SMA and 50% Fib. retracement level of the pair's big up-move from April low to highs touched in June, the pair on Thursday rose to its monthly high levels and is sustaining its strength above 194.00 mark. Should the pair continue holding above 194.00 mark, it seems to make a fresh attempt to retest its multi-year daily closing high resistance level near 195.50 region, earlier tested in the month of June. A clear strength above 195.50 level now seems to set the stage for extension of the upward trajectory towards testing 61.8% Fib. expansion level resistance near 198.40-50 zone. On the downside, 193.50 level now seems to provide immediate support and weakness below this is likely to get extended towards 191.00 support area, marking 23.6% Fib. retracement level, which now seems to act as a strong support on the downside. However, a decisive break below 191.00 mark might now negate the near-term bullish expectations, thus increasing the pair's vulnerability to continue drifting lower towards retesting 188.00-187.80 support area, representing 38.2% Fib. retracement level.

AUDJPY

The pair's recovery from early July lows lost its momentum at its previous support turned resistance near 92.00-92.20 zone. The pair subsequently dropped below 91.00-90.90 support area, marking 23.6% Fib. retracement level of its down-leg from 96.18 to 89.15. This 91.00 level now seems to act as immediate resistance for the pair and only a sustained trade above this immediate resistance could open room for any near-term recovery for the pair. However, strength above 91.00 mark might continue facing strong resistance near 92.00-92.20 area. Further, only a clear break-through 92.00-92.20 resistance would increase the prospects of continuing the pair's near-term recovery towards 93.30-50 resistance area, marked by 61.8% Fib. retracement level, with an intermediate resistance at 50% Fib. retracement level near 92.60-70 area. Meanwhile, weakness back below 90.20-90.00 psychological mark support has the potential to drag the pair back towards its next important support near 89.00 round figure mark. Failure to hold 89.00 mark support might increase the near-term vulnerability of the pair towards testing its next major support near 86.00 mark level, representing lows tested in August 2013.



“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

Technical Outlook - EURNZD, AUDNZD, NZDJPY and NZDCHF

EURNZD

Even if the short-term ascending trend-channel favors the EURNZD up-move, the 1.6800 mark, tested twice during July, seems providing strong resistance to restrict the pair's immediate upside. On the downside, a break of channel support, near 1.6400 round figure mark, seems a good support to determine the pair's trend, breaking which 1.6100, 23.6% Fibo of its April-July up-move, can become an intermediate support for the pair before it could test the 1.5930-80 important support region. Should the pair extends its downtrend below 1.5930, it is likely to plunge towards 1.5340-50 support-zone, including 50% Fibo and 50-day SMA with 38.2% Fibo, near 1.5680 being intermediate support. Alternatively, an upside break of 1.6800 could quickly fuel the pair towards 1.6930-50 resistance area, including channel resistance while an extension of up-move beyond 1.6950 can fuel the pair's rally towards 1.7200 region.

AUDNZD

On Wednesday, the AUDNZD plunged to its 1.0880 – 1.0900 important horizontal support-zone, failing to break the same pulled back the pair towards 1.1000 during Thursday; however, early July lows, near 1.1000 – 1.1020 seems restricting the pair's immediate up-move. Should the pair fails to close above 1.1020, the 1.0880 mark again becomes an highlight, breaking which the "Double – Top" bearish formation gets confirmed and the pair becomes vulnerable to plunge towards 1.0720 – 1.0700 support are, including 200-day SMA and the 50% Fibo of April-July up-move. Moreover, a sustained trading below 1.0700 region negates the pair's chances of short-term up-move by signaling the pair's decline towards sub-1.05000 levels. Meanwhile, an upside break of 1.1020 on a closing basis can witness 1.1150 area as an immediate resistance before it could rally to 1.1300 and the 1.1370-80 double-tops. If the pair extends the upside above 1.1380, it is likely to continue its upward trajectory towards 1.1500 area.

NZDJPY

Failure to break the 82.80 – 83.00 horizontal mark signals the NZDJPY's ability to challenge 80.00 – 80.50 horizontal support area with 81.00 being intermediate support. On a further decline below 80.00 round figure mark, the pair can quickly plunge to 79.10 – 79.00, a break of which opens the door for pair's plunge towards sub-77.00 multiple support region. On the upside, a close above 83.00 is likely to trigger the pair's up-move towards 84.60-80, including 50-day SMA, breaking which 38.2% Fibo of December 2014 – July 2015 decline, near 85.70 is likely an intermediate resistance before the pair could rally to 86.80. Moreover, a close above 86.80, fuels the pair towards 87.80-88.00 important resistance region that restricts the pair's medium-term up-move.

NZDCHF

50-day SMA and the three month old descending trend-line resistance, currently near 0.6460-70 area, provides strong resistance to restrict near-term up-move by the NZDCHF, signaling the pair's re-test of 0.6350 support, breaking which 61.8% FE of its June decline, near 0.6250-45 zone. On a further decline below 0.6250, the pair could plunge to 100% FE level, near 0.6100 round figure mark prior to testing sub-0.6000 psychological magnet. Should the pair successfully breaks the 0.6470 on a closing basis, it can target 0.6770-80 horizontal resistance; though, 0.6600 round figure mark can become intermediate resistance for the pair's upward trajectory.



“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

Technical Outlook - CHFJPY, EURCHF and CADCHF

CHFJPY

Having struggled near the 100-day SMA and the four month old ascending trend-line support, forming part of symmetrical triangle, the CHFJPY finally managed to break the formation resistance on Friday; however, a close above 129 become prerequisite to trigger the pair's up-move towards 131 region, with 129.50 being intermediate resistance. Moreover, a sustained trading above 131 may find it difficult to break 131.50 important support-turned-resistance, breaking which the pair could stretch its upwards trajectory towards 134.50-60 "Double-Top" region. Meanwhile, failure to close above 129 can continue signifying the importance of 127.70-75 area, breaking which the pair can quickly decline to 50% Fibo, near 126.50 prior to targeting 125.30-25 support region. On an extended decline below 125.25 on a closing basis, the pair becomes vulnerable to plunge towards 123.50, 61.8% Fibo. level.

EURCHF

Even after breaking the 1.0530-50 horizontal resistance during early week days, the EURCHF failed to break 1.0680 – 1.0700 resistance region, including 76.4% Fibo. The pair currently trades near the same 1.0530-50 support-zone, breaking which 1.0450-40 multiple support region, including 100-day SMA and 38.2% Fibo, can become important support to restrict the pair's near-term decline. On a further southward journey below 1.0440, the pair is likely to target sub-1.0350 support area. On the upside, a daily close above 61.8% Fibo, near 1.0600 round figure mark, could again fuel the pair towards 1.0680 – 1.07000 area, breaking which 1.0755 – 1.0760 and the 1.0800 are likely intermediate resistances for the pair's upward trajectory to surpass 1.09000 area.

CADCHF

50-day SMA and the resistance line of the "Falling-Wedge" bullish formation restricted the CADCHF upward journey on Thursday, signaling the pair's re-test to 0.7300 round figure mark, including 61.8% Fibo and the support line of the pattern. However, the pair's daily close below 0.7300 negates the bullish formation and can immediately pull it towards 0.7210 – 0.7200 area prior to test sub-0.7100 support region. Should the pair flips from the current levels, the 0.7500 round figure mark, including 50-day SMA and the said formation resistance, provides strong cap to limit the pair's immediate up-move, breaking which the pair can quickly rally to 0.7640-50 resistance area. Moreover, an extended rise above 0.7650, the 0.7750-60 are become a strong resistance for the pair to break in order to target 0.7900 mark.




“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

Technical Overview - EURAUD, GBPAUD, AUDCHF

EURAUD

The pair remains within a well-established up-trend, as depicted by formation of an ascending trend-channel on daily chart. Moreover, reversal from the upper trend-line resistance of the channel and a subsequent rebound from 1.4950-60 intermediate horizontal support, now seems to confirm extension of the near-term upward trajectory, possibly beyond recent daily closing highs resistance near 1.5250 level and 1.5300 round figure mark, towards retesting the upper trend-line resistance of the channel, currently near 1.5340-50 region. On the downside, 1.5100-1.5080 zone now seems to provide immediate support, which if broken might drag the pair back towards testing 1.4960-50 horizontal support area. Further, failure to hold 1.4950 support now seems to open room for continuing the near-term corrective move towards testing the lower trend-line support of the channel, currently near 1.4700 level.

GBPAUD

Following a break-through an important resistance near 2.1300 area, representing the upper trend-line resistance (Blue line) of an ascending trend-channel held since Sept. 2014, the pair on Friday climbed to a fresh 2015 highs, also marking the highest level touched since March 2009. On 4-hourly chart, the pair is nearing an ascending trend-line (Magenta) resistance near 2.1540 level, which if conquered seems to provide a further boost towards testing 2.1600-20 area, marking the upper trend-line (Deep Sky Blue) resistance of another short-term ascending trend-channel formation on 4-hourly chart. Considering that the pair has decisively strengthened above a medium-term ascending trend-channel, it could possibly continue with the break-out momentum in the near-term towards testing its next resistance near 2.1730-50 region. Meanwhile, a reversal from the current 2.1540 resistance level now seems to find immediate support near 2.1420-2.1400 level, which is closely followed by the medium-term ascending trend-channel resistance (Blue) break-out point now turned support near 2.1360-50 area, also coinciding with a short-term ascending trend-line (Magenta) support. A decisive break below 1.1350 support area has the potential to further drag the pair towards testing the lower trend-line support (Deep Sky Blue) of the short-term ascending trend-channel support, currently near 1.1060-50 zone.

AUDCHF

The formation of a short-term descending trend-channel on 4-hourly chart suggests the near-term trajectory for the pair remains on the downside. Further, after failing to decisively conquer 0.7100-20 resistance, the pair is once again headed back towards testing a strong support near 0.6950-40 zone. Hence, a break below this immediate strong support now seems to accelerate the fall back towards testing 0.6860-50 region, marking all-time low level earlier tested on 15th Jan. this year and also coinciding with the lower trend-line support of the descending channel. However, should the pair manages to hold 0.6950-40 support area and attempt a recovery, it is now seems to confront immediate resistance near 0.7000 round figure mark. On a decisive strength above 0.7000 mark, the pair seems be headed back towards a major resistance near 0.7100-20 area, also nearing the upper trend-line resistance of the channel.



“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

Technical Outlook - EURUSD, GBPUSD, NZDUSD and USDJPY

EURUSD

While short-term descending trend-line resistance, coupled with the 50-day SMA, seems restricting near-term up-move by the EURUSD, signaling extended declines, the 1.0820 – 1.0800 horizontal region becomes strong downside support, with 1.0920, 38.2% Fibo, being intermediate rest. However, recent trading pattern, coupled with important releases favoring USD strength, could weaken the pair towards breaking 1.0800 support, targeting towards 1.0700 and 1.0630 supports while sustained close below 1.0630 can make the pair vulnerable to challenge March lows, near 1.0460. Alternatively, a break above 1.1100 round figure mark, including the mentioned trend-line and SMA, could trigger the pair's up-move towards 61.8% Fibo, near 1.1200 mark, prior to testing nearly seven month old descending trend-line resistance, near 1.1330. Even if the break of 1.1330 is less likely, such a break can strengthen the pair's upward trajectory to surpass 1.1500 region.

GBPUSD

With the horizontal resistance, coupled with symmetrical triangle resistance-line, 1.5660-70 area, restricting the pair's near-term advance, GBPUSD also witnesses strong downside support near 1.5560-50 region, including support-line of the formation and 50-day SMA. Though, recent higher highs favor GBPUSD up-move towards 1.5800 area, on the break of 1.5670 while a sustained break of 1.5800 signals the pair's extended up-ward trajectory towards 1.5930 and the 1.6000 resistances. However, a break below 1.5550 can quickly pullback the pair towards 1.5460-50 support-zone, breaking which 38.2% Fibo, near 1.5400 – 1.5390 can become intermediate rest for the pair prior to its plunge to 50% Fibo, near 1.5250 level. Should the pair successfully breaks the 1.5250 on a closing basis, it can slip below 1.5100 mark.

NZDUSD

Even if the 0.6500 area provides strong downside support to restrict near-term NZDUSD decline, more than a three month old descending trend-line resistance, coupled with inability to break 0.6730-50 horizontal mark, favors the extended downturn by the pair. The pair currently witnesses 0.6630, descending trend-line, as an immediate resistance, breaking which 0.6750 can't be denied while a close above 0.6750 is likely to test 50-day SMA, presently near 0.6830. Given the pair's ability to surpass 0.6830 on a closing basis, it can quickly rise to 0.6950 and the 0.7080 resistances. On the downside, a break below 0.6500 can make the pair vulnerable to plunge towards 0.6350 and 0.6280 support levels with 61.8% FE level, near 0.6420, being intermediate rest.

USDJPY

USDJPY again failed to break 124.40-50 resistance area, signaling 123.00 re-test; however, 50-day SMA and the 23.6% Fibo, near 123.50, can provide immediate downside support to the pair. Should it extends the decline below 123 mark, the 122.50 and the 121.70-80 region is likely important supports prior to the pair's plunge to 120.80 mark. On the upside, a break of 124.50 can quickly target 125.00 round figure mark prior to challenging the 125.85 high. Should the pair enables itself to break 125.85, the 61.8% FE, near 126.80 is likely next resistance for the pair before it could target 128 region.



“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

AUD Surges After RBA Policy Statement

AUDUSD

Although the pair remains within a well-established downtrend, as depicted by a descending trend-channel formation on daily chart, it managed to register a sharp recovery from the multi-year low levels following a status quo decision by RBA at its monetary policy decision on Tuesday. The pair's sharp recovery helped it to reclaim 0.7400 round figure mark and the momentum seems to continue supporting further upward trajectory towards a very important resistance confluence near 0.7450 level, comprising of the upper trend-line resistance of the descending channel and 23.6% Fib. retracement level of its May to July downfall. A clear strength above 0.7450 region, marking a break-out from the descending channel, might now set the stage for extension of the recovery momentum towards its next major resistance near 0.7590-0.7600 area, coinciding with 38.2% Fib. retracement level. Meanwhile on the downside, 0.7350 horizontal area now seems to protect immediate downside. Failure to hold this immediate support and a subsequent drop back below 0.7300 level would mark the current sharp bounce-back as a dead-cat bounce. Hence, a drop back below 0.7300 mark might force the pair to resume its weakening trend, possibly even below its recent lows, towards testing the lower trend-line support of the channel, currently near 0.7110-0.7100 area.


AUDCAD

Tuesday's momentum helped the pair to conquer a very important descending trend-line resistance near 0.9580-90 area, which subsequently lifted the pair above another strong resistance confluence near 0.9640 level, comprising of 200-day SMA and 38.2% Fib. retracement level of the pair's down-leg that started in Jan. and lasted till June this year. The pair extended the momentum to move back above 0.9700 mark and is now close to 50% Fib. retracement level resistance near 0.9715-25 zone. A sustained strength above 50% Fib. retracement level seems to open room for continuing the upward trajectory initially towards 61.8% Fib. retracement level resistance near 0.9800-10 area, which might further get extended towards reclaiming parity mark in the near-term. Alternatively, should the pair starts giving up some of its gains and drop back below 0.9700 mark, it is likely to find immediate support at an important resistance confluence now turned support near 0.9650-40 area. Weakness back below this immediate support now seems to be limited at 0.9600 region, which now seems to act as a near-term strong support for the pair.


AUDJPY

The pair's rebound from an important support near 89.50-30 area gained momentum beyond 91.00 mark resistance, representing 23.6% Fib. retracement level of its downward momentum witnessed during June-July. From current levels, the pair clearly seems to be headed towards its next major resistance at 38.2% Fib. retracement level near 92.00-92.10 area. A sustained break above this strong resistance has the potential to further lift the pair towards testing 50% Fib. retracement level resistance near 93.00 mark. However, failure to break through 92.00 mark important resistance and a subsequent drop back below 91.50-30 immediate horizontal support might now find immediate support at 23.6% Fib. retracement level near 91.00 mark. Only a decisive weakness below might now negate possibilities of any further up-move for the pair and the pair might drop back to test the very important support near 89.50-30 region with intermediate support near 90.30 level and 90.00 psychological mark.


EURAUD

The pair's near-term strong momentum that started in April this year failed to lift the pair beyond highs touched in Dec. 2014, which also coincides with the upper trend-line resistance of an ascending trend-channel formation on daily chart. The pair subsequently dropped below 23.6% Fib. retracement level of its April to July up-move and now seems vulnerable to continue drifting lower to test the lower trend-line support of the channel, currently near 1.4730-20 zone. A drop below the lower trend-line support of the channel is closely followed by 38.2% Fib. retracement level support near 1.4660-50 area. However, a decisive break-down from the ascending channel and a subsequent drop below 1.4650 support might trigger further near-term corrective move for the pair towards testing its next major support near 1.4450-30 area, nearing 50% Fib. retracement level. Meanwhile on the upside, 1.4980-1.5000 zone now seems to act as immediate resistance. Moreover, failure to break below or a rebound from important support level, followed by a move back above immediate resistance, would mark the current fall as a corrective move within a well-established trend and might even help the pair to once again make an attempt to move back towards an important resistance near 1.5250 level.




“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

Technical Update - EURGBP, GBPCAD, GBPJPY and GBPNZD

EURGBP

The pair's recovery momentum from a descending trend-line support, marking the lower descending trend-line of a possible falling wedge chart-pattern, failed to lift the pair beyond another descending trend-line resistance also constituting towards formation of the bullish reversal pattern. Reversal from the upper trend-line resistance of the pattern dragged the pair back below 0.7000 mark thus making it vulnerable to continue drifting lower in the near-term towards retesting the lower trend-line support of the wedge, currently near 0.6880-75 area, also coinciding with 61.8% Fib. expansion level. On the upside, 0.7000 round figure mark, closely followed by a 0.7030-40 horizontal area, might now act as immediate resistance. A move above 0.7030-40 resistance might lift the pair back towards the upper trend-line resistance of the wedge, currently near 0.7090-0.7100 area. Should the pair manage to conquer and decisively break through 0.7100 resistance, thus confirming the bullish falling wedge chart-pattern, the pair could immediately aim towards 0.7210-20 horizontal resistance, which could further get extended towards its next major resistance near 0.7350-60 area.

GBPCAD

Extending its strong upward trajectory, as depicted by the formation of an ascending trend-channel on daily chart, the pair on Wednesday scaled to a fresh 2015 highs and also marking its highest level since Oct. 2008. From current level, the pair seems more likely to continue climbing higher towards testing the upper trend-line resistance of the ascending channel, currently near 2.0700-20 area. Alternatively, should the pair start witnessing some profit taking moves at higher level and drop back below 2.0550 level, previous resistance now turned immediate support, it seems to extend the corrective move immediately towards testing its next support near 2.0400-2.0380 horizontal area. Further, decisive weakness below 2.0400 area might now trigger additional pull-back towards testing a very important support near 2.0120-100 area, marking the lower trend-line support of the ascending channel.

GBPJPY

In the near-term the pair seems to have moved within a short-term trading range with immediate resistance near 194.50 and 193.00 as immediate support on the downside. On a clear break thorough on the up-side of the trading range, the pair seems more likely to make a fresh attempt to retest its multi-year daily closing high resistance level near 195.50 region, earlier tested in the month of June. Further, sustained strength above 195.50 level now seems to open room for continuing the pair's near-term upward trajectory towards testing 61.8% Fib. expansion level resistance near 198.40-50 zone. Alternatively, a break-down on the downside, i.e. below 193.00 mark, is likely to get extended the weakness towards 191.00 support area, marking 23.6% Fib. retracement level, which now seems to act as a strong support on the downside. However, a decisive break and close below 191.00 mark might now negate the near-term bullish expectations, thus increasing the pair's vulnerability to continue drifting lower towards testing its next major support near 188.00-187.80 support area, representing 38.2% Fib. retracement level.

GBPNZD

Bounce from a short-term ascending trend-line support helped the pair to move back above 61.8% Fib. expansion level intermediate resistance near 2.3750-70 area. Moreover, the pair also seems to have moved within a short-term ascending trend-channel, thus increasing the prospects of darting back towards 2.4000 mark and extend the up-move towards its the upper trend-line of the ascending channel, currently near 2.4100 level. Moreover, a clear strength above 2.4000 would enhance the possibilities of aiming towards the pair next major resistance near 2.4350-70 area, representing 100% Fib. expansion level. Meanwhile, a drop below 2.3770-50 immediate support, also nearing the lower trend-line support of the short-term ascending channel, might initially drag the pair back towards 2.3560-50 intermediate horizontal support and eventually weaken it towards retesting the short-term ascending trend-line support near 2.3350-40 zone.



“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

Technical Outlook - USDCAD, EURCAD, CADJPY and CADCHF

USDCAD

On Wednesday, the USDCAD rallied to the highest levels last seen in August 2004; however, the ascending trend-line resistance, part of "Rising-Wedge" bearish technical formation, near 1.3220, could provide a pullback to the pair's upward trajectory towards 1.3050 immediate support region. Should the pair fails to stand near 1.3050, the formation support near 1.3000 round figure mark, quickly followed by the 61.8% FE of November 2014 to March 2015, near 1.2920, and the 1.2820-10 horizontal support region are consecutive supports before the pair plunges to the 50-day SMA, near 1.2630. Should the pair breaks 1.2630 on a closing basis, chances of the near-term up-move get negated and it can test sub – 1.2400 region. On the upside, a sustained break of 1.3220, negates the bearish formation, fueling the pair's upward trajectory towards 1.3285 horizontal mark and the 1.3600 area with 1.3450 being intermediate resistance.

EURCAD

Having reversed from 1.4490 – 1.4500 important resistance region, converging the horizontal and descending trend-line resistance, the EURCAD seems pulling back towards 1.4150 area, signaled by the four month old ascending trend-line. However, a closing break below 1.4150 could trigger the pair's decline towards 1.4100 round figure mark, prior to testing 38.2% Fibo, near 1.4000 psychological magnet and the 200-day SMA, near 1.3900. On a further decline below 1.3900, the pair can plunge to sub-1.3750 support region. Alternatively, a close above 1.4500 important resistance could fuel the pair's rally towards 1.4650 and the 1.4800 marks in a quick up-move, breaking which 76.4% Fibo, near 1.5000 psychological magnet can become an important resistance levels to determine the pair's trend.

CADJPY

Even after trading near the lowest levels in four months, the CADJPY decline seems to be restricted by the 94.10 – 94.00 horizontal mark, signaling 95.30 as an immediate resistance, breaking which a month old descending trend-line near 95.80 is likely an important resistance for the pair. Given the pair's ability to break 95.80 on a closing basis, it can quickly rise to 97.00 and the 97.80 mark that includes 50-day SMA and 50% Fibo. A close above 97.80 is followed by the 98.50 and the 99.80 marks before the pair could run to 101. On the downside, a close below 94.00 can make the pair vulnerable to 91.70 with 93.00 being intermediate support. Moreover, a break of 91.70 is likely to make the pair test 90.00 important round figure mark.

CADCHF

Short-term descending trend-channel resistance, coupled with 50-day SMA, near 0.7470-80 continue to restrict the immediate CADCHF up-move, signaling a pullback towards 0.7380, 0.7320, 0.7300 and the 0.7250, channel lower line supports. Should the pair breaks below 0.7250 on a closing basis, it can quickly test 0.7200 mark, breaking which 0.7100 area becomes an intermediate support for the pair before it could target 0.7000 round figure mark. On the upside, a break of 0.7480 is likely fueling the pair towards 0.7550 and the 0.7630 prior to its rally towards 0.7750. Should the pair surpasses 0.7750, chances of the pair's near-term decline get negated and it can extend the upward trajectory towards 0.7950-55 "Double-Tops".




“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

Technical Outlook - EURNZD, NZDCHF, NZDJPY and AUDNZD

EURNZD

Following its sharp up-move from its all-time low touched in April to the highest level since Jan. 2014, the pair now seems to have moved in a trading range between 1.6800 upside resistance and 1.6400 support on the downside. The pair is currently reversing after nearly testing the top-end of the trading range and hence seems more likely to drift lower towards its immediate horizontal support near 1.6600-1.6590 area. Drop below this immediate support would reaffirm the trading range and thus opens room for a retest of 1.6400 support area, marking the lower-end of the trading range, with 1.6500 round figure mark possibly acting as intermediate support. On the upside, 1.6740-50 horizontal zone seems to provide immediate resistance, which is closely followed by 1.6800 mark resistance level, representing the top-end of the trading range. Further, a clear break through 1.6800 important resistance seems to pave way for continuation of the pair's upward trajectory in the near-term towards 1.7100-20 resistance area, with 1.7000 psychological mark acting as intermediate resistance.

NZDCHF

Although the pair seems to have found some support near 0.6200 mark, it however has failed to register any remarkable recovery. From current levels, the pair might continue facing strong resistance near 0.6470-75 area, marking 50-day SMA and also nearing 23.6% Fib. retracement level of April to July down-leg. However, a decisive strength above this immediate strong resistance is likely to trigger a short-covering rally immediately towards 0.6570-80 horizontal resistance, which might get extended towards its next major resistance near 0.6600-20 area, nearing 38.2% Fib. retracement level. Alternatively, failure to conquer its immediate resistance, followed by a sustained weakness below 0.6400 level (0.6390-80 zone), the pair might be aiming back towards testing sub-0.6300 level. Further, a decisive break below 0.6300 mark would now set the stage for continuing the pair's near-term downward trajectory, possibly even below lows tested in July, towards 0.6050-40 area, low tested on the day of SNB surprise, Jan. 15.

NZDJPY

The pair's recovery from the very important 80.00 psychological mark support area continues to face strong headwind and is being sold into near 83.00 mark resistance. However, the pair also seems to have found some support near 81.00 mark and is currently trading comfortably above 81.00 mark. From current level, a break below 81.00 mark might now force the pair to possibly break below 80.00 psychological mark. Further, a decisive drop below 80.00 mark seems to extend the pair's near-term downward trajectory towards testing its next major support near 77.00 mark. Alternatively, any recovery attempts now seems to face immediate resistance near 82.00 round figure mark, which if cleared opens room for a retest of the very important resistance near 82.90-83.00 mark. Further, sustained strength above 83.00 mark has the potential to continue lifting the pair in the near-term towards its next resistance near 84.50 level.

AUDNZD

The pair once again failed to sustain its strength above 1.1400 mark and dropped back to 1.1200 mark. Back-to-back reversal from 1.1400 mark could possibly be an indication of a bearish Double-Top chart-pattern formation. The formation, however, is not complete unless the pair breaks below an important support, which is near 1.0900 region, also marking 38.2% Fib. retracement level of April to July up-swing. From current level, 23.6% Fib. retracement level near 1.1100-1.1090 zone seems to protect immediate downside and weakness below this immediate support might drag the pair towards testing 1.0900 level important support. Meanwhile, a move above a short-term descending trend-line resistance, near 1.1300 mark, might continue facing strong hurdle near 1.1400 mark, which if conquered would indicate resumption of the pair's strong momentum witnessed since April this year, lifting the pair towards its next major resistance near 1.1550-60 area marking highs tested in Oct. 2013.




“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”