Technical Analysis by Admiral Markets

[Admiral Markets]

EUR/USD beware of breakaway gap



The EUR/USD and most Forex pairs opened with a gap on early Monday. Equities spiked higher as the market has temporarily dismissed the fear of Brexit as the latest Bloomberg reports reduced the Brexit probability to 42%. DAX went up 3.6 % along with FTSE. Equities went so bullish that it was almost like a foregone conclusion on UK referendum (!).

The change of sentiment in the market spiked the EUR/USD towards 1.14, stopping it around 1.1382 level. On the intraday chart we can see the inner trend line making a confluence with a retail gap. 78.6 and V shaped reversal within 1.1270-80 zone. If the pair retraces we might see the close of a bullish gap but if we don't see a retracement soon, this could qualify as the breakaway gap. They show when price is breaking from their trading range with a high volume and momentum. In this case we see inner trend line break after V shaped reversal. If breakaway gap is confirmed, 1.1448 will be the target.

In other scenario if we see the gap close pay attention to POC as we could see renewed buying pressure towards 1.1320, 1.1380 and 1.1448. If the sentiment turns negative again this scenario will be completely reversed and revised with a bearish outlook. It is all about Brexit now so be careful.


“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

EUR/JPY consolidating within bullish pennant



The EUR/JPY has been consolidating in the bullish pennant for last couple of days. This consolidation is showing a battle between bulls and bears for the next breakout. For trading purpose we have 2 possible scenarios. Twofold scenario is possible due to general downtrend and bullish pennant at L3 support. As the price is generally bearish, we might see a drop from POC zone 117.97-118.20 (H3, DPP, 61.8,EMA89,the top of the pennant) towards 117.50, 117.00 and 116.45. However if we see an upward breakout above 118.25 the price could reach 118.64 and 119.05-20 zone. Watch the correlation table and equities. SP500 will move in correlation with EUR/JPY during NY session.



“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

EUR/AUD determined to proceed lower



The EUR/AUD has broken through important trend line below 1.5180 and it seems it is targeting 1.4930-00 zone as the first target. A huge uptrend that started from 1.4434 lows ended up with 1.5647 and as commodities got stronger AUD got stronger too. The pair is showing a potential for further shorts towards 1.4800 zone should 1.4895 gets broken. Any pullback towards 1.5130 looks good for new shorts and even on shorter time frames shorting is looking good too. Buyers may appear within the 1.4934-00 zone but because the trend move was strong (to the upside) we might see even a bigger retracement. If we see a move below 1.4800 then the bigger retracement will target 1.4695 zone where we might see stronger buying.

“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

GBP/USD wait for retracement first



The GBP/USD fell sharply making 30 year lows(!) due to Brexit referendum result. We shouldn't be shocked with the price movements as it went in according with our pre fact analysis and expectations. Another thing to pay attention is that the market follows our updated and early market analysis but we need to be very careful and not blindly short the pair just because everyone is doing that.

Technically BOE intervened around 1.3225 level so at this point 1.3225 is the barrier towards 1.3000- psychological support. The range has been huge (as the pound kept dropping during Brexit referendum voting) so technically we want to see a retracement. We have 3 zones where the price might possibly react. The first zone (red line resistance) is 1.3470-80 and the price might drop from there without any retracement if equities start to get bearish. POC1 is 1.3620-50 zone (retail gap, 23.6) while deeper retracement POC2 goes to 1.4120-50 (H3,EMA89,50.0). POC2 should be eyed only if BOE intervenes as the price flow is unlikely to reach it without a CB intervention. Only below 1.3225 we can expect 1.3170 and 1.3000.

So shorting the rallies is the option but first wait for retracement.


“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

USD/CAD make it or break it



The USD/CAD has dropped from important historical resistance and it was shown live on a previous Session Recap webinar. Currently the price is at important support and it will be either make it or break it for the pair. 1.2980-95 is POC zone (L3, EMA89, 61.8, trend line) and it making an X Cross with ascending intra week trend line (blue). If we see a rejection from POC and 4h close above 1.3010, the targets will be 1.3030, 1.3060 and 1.3100. However if the price drops below 1.2975 it should target 1.2946, 1.2920 and 1.2880. Pay attention to price flow and eventual bounce or break below POC zone.


“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

USD/CHF Double top rejection in progress



The USD/CHF had made the double top pattern after rejecting resistance where we see historical vs now moment sellers (blue rectangles). Currently we see a downward movment on the pair towards 0.9718 as the first target. If we see breakout or 4h candle close below 0.9718 next target is 0.9670 zone followed by 0.9640. Pullbacks towards POC 0.9795-0.9820 (H3, now moment sellers, double top, 78.6) could be used for short setups as long as H4 - 0.9870 holds.

“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

EUR/USD consolidating within the bearish pennant



The EUR/USD is consolidating within a bearish pennant after a drop caused by Brexit price action. Traders should pay attention to 2 POCs and a possible X cross breakout just below the pennant. POC1 comes within 1.1120-35 zone (previous double bottom, historical sellers) while POC2 marks 1.1168-85 zone (H3, EMA89, the pennant top,50.0). Rejections from any of POC will aim for possible pennant breakout -1.1080. Breakout and 4h close below 1.1080 will take the pair down towards 1.1030-25 zone. Only below 1.1000 the fiber will target 1.0935.


“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

NZD/JPY standing at support zone



The NZD/JPY pair is technically in uptrend and after bearish divergence tanked the pair, it is now consolidating at support. It will either go up from this zone, or it will drop towards lower levels. POC (L3, WPP, lower equidistant channel trend line) is 73.15-00 zone and the bounce from this level will target 73.50, 73.00 and 74.25. If the pair drops below 73.00 targets will be 72.80, 72.30 and 72.05. The pair should move during NY and Wellington session because GDT price index ( leading indicator of the nation's trade balance with other countries because rising commodity prices boost export income ) is expected to be released today although the time is tentative.


“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

GBP/USD downtrend continues



The GBP/USD made it to all predicted targets. It was like no-brainer trading. Simply we've had to short into rallies and it's been a free money. Today we might see a rejection from 1.2990-1.3005 as the first POC ( bearish order block, 38.2, Now moment sellers, Pinbar rejection ) towards 1.2863. If the price proceeds above 1.3010 we should consider POC2 1.3070-1.3100 (50.0, H3, DPP). Rejection from this zone will target 1.3000 zone. Additionally a pinbar rejection that happened 2 hours ago might immediately pull the price down from 1.2970.

If the price makes a H1 momentum break or 4h close below L4 1.2860 then the door to 1.2735 will be open.



“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

GBP/CAD bearish zigzag within a steady channel



The GBP/CAD is making a zig zag trend pattern within an equidistant channel. The channel is steady and if follows the trend perfectly. Currently the pair is retracing from POC 1.6854-70 and if we see a close below 1.6815 the pair could continue down towards 1.6768 DPP. Break below DPP will target triple bottom at 1.6691. So it is very clear that if we see a breakout of 1.6691 the way towards 1.6500 will be open. Fakeout that happened prior to retracement signals a possible strong stop grab below 1.6691. Additionally, our H4 chart (thanks to AM Supreme Edition) is showing now moment sellers too.

However if we see the pair above 1.6880, then we should be prepared for a deeper retracement towards 1.6950-80 (88.6, EMA89, H5) and expect fresh sellers there.


“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”