Henry Liu
Former FPA Special Consultant
- Messages
- 473
Hi folks:
We've only got 4 tradable news releases this week and here are the results:
Daily Signals
1. Tue July 27, 2010 (9:30pm EST) AU CPI q/q
For historical charts & data on AU CPI q/q SELL trade triggered - Dropped 88 pips within the hour.
2. Wed July 28, 2010 (5:00pm EST) NZ RBNZ Cash Rate
For historical charts and data on NZ RBNZ Cash Rate No Trade
3. Fri July 30, 2010 (8:30am EST) US Advanced GDP q/q
For historical charts and data on US Adv. GDP q/q No Trade
4. Fri July 30, 2010 (8:30am EST) CA GDP m/m
For historical charts and data on CA GDP m/m No Trade
Based on Daily Signals, we made a potential of 88 pips this week.
Pre-news Recommendations
1. AUD/NZD SELL 1.2300 - Market dropped to 1.2236, a 64 pips potential.
2. USD/CAD SELL 1.0390 - Didn't quite get to the 1.0390 level, but market went as high as 1.0366 down to 1.0307 pre-news, showing strong accuracy to pre-news fundamentals.
Based on Pre-news recommendations, the total potential pips = 64
Weekly Trend Recommendations
1. This is my weekly recommendation for USD/CAD: "... we should be looking to BUY USD/CAD whenever it dips down, I would not expect to see USD/CAD drop down to 1.0100 level, much less parity with USD... so whenever we see market pushing this the "wrong way", I'd call a buy, buy, buy... Look at your 4 hour charts and find those support areas, they should provide entry levels on the USD/CAD pair."
I count about 4 times of bouncing from 1.0300 area giving about 40 (once) to 88 (3 times) pips of profit each time (304 total). Last drop on Friday should be ignored since it is heading into the weekend, but EVEN if you are in this trade right now, I believe it will still bounce back in the coming week.
2. My recommendation for GBP/USD: "So my bias towards Sterling is pretty much buy on dips. I think if you refrain from SELLING Sterling and just wait for GBP/USD or GBP/JPY to drop towards support levels, your chances of making pips on BUYs are going to be much higher..."
If you bought Sterling on my recommendation on Sunday and hold it all the way to Friday, you have a potential of gain of 310 pips.
If you bought on dips at 1.5443, 1.5548, and 1.5550, you are looking at 160, 92, and 170 pips of potential on each of these buys.
If you prefer to trade the GBP/JPY, you have a chance to enter at the beginning on Sunday, which is a support on 4hr, and pick up 280 pips. Or if you waited until Friday, you have a chance to pick up 160 pips by entering at the same support area.
Based on Weekly Trend, the total of potential pips between USD/CAD and GBP/USD is 614+ pips. Add another 280 pips if you also traded the GBP/JPY pair.
Once again, if you happen to have almost lottery winning luck this week, you could have made 752 pips of profit. If you did win the lottery and traded GBPJPY pair as well, then 1032 pips is not out of the realm of possibilities.
If you just have regular luck but followed my recommendations, let's take a 75% discount and you'd still be looking at 188pips (from the 752 potential figure).
Regarding the AUD/USD AU CPI q/q Fundamental Analysis
I felt terrible that so many traders took this as a signal, and I agree as a trade recommendation, it is not the best one that I've made; however, the purpose for that particular post is to show the fundamental long-term effect of news such as the CPI has on the market. It would probably be much better if I explained it in detail as to where my entry and my exit would be, and if it was indeed a signal to SELL, I'd probably have done so.
The responses from members ranges from demanding a public apology to outright calling me a fraud and my system is crap are making me very uneasy. I think I'll have to scale down significantly with my recommendations because I'd rather not have to deal with it. Stick to safety may be my motto from now on, which means I'll just do the daily signals, following the footsteps of my predecessors. For those who have shown support and understanding, I appreciate it very much. Thank you.
Thank you all for taking the time to read this review... If you made some pips, would you share it here with me? Also I'd appreciate if you can get the word out and share this article on Twitter and Facebook. Much appreciated!
We've only got 4 tradable news releases this week and here are the results:
Daily Signals
1. Tue July 27, 2010 (9:30pm EST) AU CPI q/q
For historical charts & data on AU CPI q/q SELL trade triggered - Dropped 88 pips within the hour.
2. Wed July 28, 2010 (5:00pm EST) NZ RBNZ Cash Rate
For historical charts and data on NZ RBNZ Cash Rate No Trade
3. Fri July 30, 2010 (8:30am EST) US Advanced GDP q/q
For historical charts and data on US Adv. GDP q/q No Trade
4. Fri July 30, 2010 (8:30am EST) CA GDP m/m
For historical charts and data on CA GDP m/m No Trade
Based on Daily Signals, we made a potential of 88 pips this week.
Pre-news Recommendations
1. AUD/NZD SELL 1.2300 - Market dropped to 1.2236, a 64 pips potential.
2. USD/CAD SELL 1.0390 - Didn't quite get to the 1.0390 level, but market went as high as 1.0366 down to 1.0307 pre-news, showing strong accuracy to pre-news fundamentals.
Based on Pre-news recommendations, the total potential pips = 64
Weekly Trend Recommendations
1. This is my weekly recommendation for USD/CAD: "... we should be looking to BUY USD/CAD whenever it dips down, I would not expect to see USD/CAD drop down to 1.0100 level, much less parity with USD... so whenever we see market pushing this the "wrong way", I'd call a buy, buy, buy... Look at your 4 hour charts and find those support areas, they should provide entry levels on the USD/CAD pair."
I count about 4 times of bouncing from 1.0300 area giving about 40 (once) to 88 (3 times) pips of profit each time (304 total). Last drop on Friday should be ignored since it is heading into the weekend, but EVEN if you are in this trade right now, I believe it will still bounce back in the coming week.
2. My recommendation for GBP/USD: "So my bias towards Sterling is pretty much buy on dips. I think if you refrain from SELLING Sterling and just wait for GBP/USD or GBP/JPY to drop towards support levels, your chances of making pips on BUYs are going to be much higher..."
If you bought Sterling on my recommendation on Sunday and hold it all the way to Friday, you have a potential of gain of 310 pips.
If you bought on dips at 1.5443, 1.5548, and 1.5550, you are looking at 160, 92, and 170 pips of potential on each of these buys.
If you prefer to trade the GBP/JPY, you have a chance to enter at the beginning on Sunday, which is a support on 4hr, and pick up 280 pips. Or if you waited until Friday, you have a chance to pick up 160 pips by entering at the same support area.
Based on Weekly Trend, the total of potential pips between USD/CAD and GBP/USD is 614+ pips. Add another 280 pips if you also traded the GBP/JPY pair.
Once again, if you happen to have almost lottery winning luck this week, you could have made 752 pips of profit. If you did win the lottery and traded GBPJPY pair as well, then 1032 pips is not out of the realm of possibilities.
If you just have regular luck but followed my recommendations, let's take a 75% discount and you'd still be looking at 188pips (from the 752 potential figure).
Regarding the AUD/USD AU CPI q/q Fundamental Analysis
I felt terrible that so many traders took this as a signal, and I agree as a trade recommendation, it is not the best one that I've made; however, the purpose for that particular post is to show the fundamental long-term effect of news such as the CPI has on the market. It would probably be much better if I explained it in detail as to where my entry and my exit would be, and if it was indeed a signal to SELL, I'd probably have done so.
The responses from members ranges from demanding a public apology to outright calling me a fraud and my system is crap are making me very uneasy. I think I'll have to scale down significantly with my recommendations because I'd rather not have to deal with it. Stick to safety may be my motto from now on, which means I'll just do the daily signals, following the footsteps of my predecessors. For those who have shown support and understanding, I appreciate it very much. Thank you.
Thank you all for taking the time to read this review... If you made some pips, would you share it here with me? Also I'd appreciate if you can get the word out and share this article on Twitter and Facebook. Much appreciated!
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