AceTraderFx: Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views USD/JPY

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Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views

USD/JPY -- .... BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda begins his press conference n says 'household confidence is improving; virtuous cycle of economic activity continues to operate firmly; Japan economy continues moderate recovery despite decline in demand after sales tax hike; overseas economies are recovering, centring on advanced economies, albeit some slack; exports showing weakness; private consumption in firm trend; CPI likely to hit 2% around middle of forecast period between fiscal 2014-16; QQE has been exerting its intended effects; will continue with QQE as long as necessary to achieve 2% goal in a stable manner; will examine both upside, downside risks to economy n make adjustment as appropriate; progress in fiscal discipline is important for Japan.'

The rally in the Nikkei which started on Tue (this in turn caused dlr/yen to rally) n took the index to a 7-month high of 15829 was due to market optimism on the appointment of Japan's new welfare minister, Yasuhisa Shiozaki to make reform in the world's largest pension fund GPIF.

Reuters reported earlier Shiozaki told reporters "safe and efficient" asset management was a priority for the country's pension fund even as the government is set to overhaul the way it invests. He added "the most important thing is that people think the system is trustworthy."

Shiozaki's job will include supervising the country's $1.26 trln pension fund. His previous calls to overhaul Japan's Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF) have led to expectations he could push for it to invest in riskier assets.
The GPIF has already cut its bond holdings in recent months, as PM Shinzo Abe has been pushing GPIF to invest more in risk assets n less in domestic bonds in order to boost returns. The fund is finalising plans to boost the weighting of domestic stocks in its portfolio as early as this month.

Earlier, Japan Welfare Minister Shiozaki said ' should aim for dafe, efficient management of GPIF assets'.

BoJ keeps monetary policy steady by unanimous vote, pledges to increase monetary base at annual pace of 60-70 trln yen. BoJ board member Kiuchi proposed making 2 pct inflation target a medium- to long-term goal, which was turned down by 8-1 vote.

BoJ said in a statement issed after the meeting:
'Japan's economy continues to recover moderately as a trend;
Japan's economy likely to continue recovering moderately as a trend;
keeps economic assessment unchanged saying effect of tax hike remains;
industrial output continues to recover moderately as a trend but making weak movements;
cuts view on housing investment saying effect of sales tax hike continues;
private consumption remains firm as a trend, effect of sales tax hike gradually easing.'

The greenback pares yesterday's losses in European & NY session n extends o/n bounce fm NY low of 104.75 to 104.94 in Tokyo trading, however, softness in the Nikkei index (currently down 18 points to 15710) limited dlr's rebound.

Despite yesterday's sharp retreat fm a fresh 8-month high of 105.31 as decline in the N225 triggered profit-taking ahead of offers near Jan's 5-year peak at 105.45, downside shud be ltd as improving U.S. economic condition shud attract buyer for greenback, therefore, buying on dips is still the favoured strategy. Offers are noted at 105.00-10 with mixture of offers n stops located at 105.25/30 n around 105.45/50. On the downside, bids are placed at 104.50-40, then 104.25/20 with stops emerging just below 104.00.

 

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AceTraderFx Sept 5: Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views & data to be released today

Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views USD/JPY

05 Sep 2014 01:49GMT

USD/JPY - ..... Japan's FinMin Taro Aso said, quote:
"rapid FX moves undesirable".
"Understand BoJ Kuroda's concern about risk from foregoing next sales tax hike;
Rapid FX moves undesirable".
"hard to know if raising min. wage would hurt or help employment";
compiling extra budget will be an option to back decision in Dec on next tax hike.'
"not surprised about FX moves, trend is more dlr strength than yen weakness";
if uncertainty about economy outlook appears, gov't and BoJ would call on each other to respond;
dollar has reached 105 yen due to strength of U.S. economy.'


Friday will see the release of U.K. RICS housing price balance, Bank of Japan monthly economy servery and leading indicator, Germany's industrial output, Swiss CPI and industrial orders, eurozone revised GDP, U.S. non-farm payrolls, private payrolls and unemployment rate, Canada's employment change, unemployment rate and Ivey PMI.

 

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AceTraderFx Sept 8: Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views & data to be released today

Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views USD/JPY

08 Sep 2014 02:12GMT

USD/JPY - .... The greenback went through a mini 'roller-coaster' session in early Monday trading. Although price dipped to 104.93 partly on selling in stg/yen & eur/yen, intra-day steep fall in the pound at NZA open lifted the dlr broadly and price quickly pared initial loss and climbed to 105.23 but offers below Fri's NY high at 105.26 checked dlr's upside n price edged lower ahead of Tokyo open.

Dlr showed muted reaction to a downward revision to Japan's Q2 GDP which showed Japan's Q2 growth shrank to 7.1% annually vs previous reading of -6.8% (but not far fm forecast of -7.0%). The GDP contraction was the steep since Q1 2009 after the Lehman crash.

Range trading is expected after Fri's strong retreat from a near 6-year peak of 105.71 (AUS) to as low as 104.69 after a surprise disappointing U.S. payrolls.
Initial bids are noted at 105.95/00 and more below with fairly large stops touted below 104.65. On the upside, offers are tipped at 105.20-30 and more at 105.45/55, suggesting choppy consolidation would continue.



Next week will see the release of Japan's current account, revised GDP and economy watcher poll, Swiss unemployment rate, Germany's imports, exports and trade balance, Swiss CPI and retail sales, eurozone Sentix index and Canada's building permits on Monday.

U.K. BRC retail sales, Bank of Japan's meeting minutes, Australia's NAH business confidence, Japan's consumer confidence index, U.K. industrial and manufacturing output, goods trade balance, Canada's housing starts on Tuesday.

Japan's corp. goods price and machinery orders, Australia's consumer sentiment, Canada's capacity utilization, U.S. wholesale inventories on Wednesday.

Reserve Bank of New Zealand interest rate decision, Australia's employment, full time employment and unemployment rate, China's CPI and PPI, Germany's CPI and HICP, Canada's new housing price index and U.S. Federal budget on Thursday.

New Zealand's manufacturing PMI, Japan's capacity utility index and industrial output, eurozone employment and industrial production, U.S. exports, imports, retail sales, University of Michigan sentiment and business inventories on Friday.

 

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AceTraderFx Sept 10: Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views & data to be released today

Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views USD/JPY

10 Sep 2014 01:31GMT

USD/JPY - ..... Statement from BoJ Deputy Governor Iwata, quote:
'QQE has been exerting intended effects;
Japan's economy continues to recover moderately as a trend, although effect of sales tax hike remains;
what matters is the mechanism underlying the economic recovery and not temporary factors;
BoJ judges that the virtuous cycle of economic activity remains firmly intact in both the household and corporate sectors;
with the employment and income situation improving steadily, private consumption has remained resilient as a trend;
labour market is likely to continue tightening as the economy continues to recover;
virtuous cycle of economic activity in the household sector is expected to remain in place;
BoJ will carefully examine how decline in real income, due to tax hike, affects households' spending behaviour;
need structural reforms, not just monetary policy, to achieve govt economic growth targets;
2 pct price target can be achieved with monetary policy regardless of potential growth rate;
Japan's potential growth rate estimated around 0.5 percent; now is time for efforts to promote innovation and reverse decline in working age population; export recovery has been delayed, but exports likely to head for a moderate increase;
Japan's economy likely to continue recovering moderately as a trend;
yen depreciation does not necessarily lead to inflation;
exports are potential concern for outlook of Japan's economy;
from somewhat longer-term perspective, correction of past excessive yen appreciation will mitigate downward pressure on exports;
yen depreciation can raise prices for some goods but also weigh on aggregate demand;
need to examine output gap to forecast prices on macro level;
increase in CPI is expected to accelerate moderately, along with increasing wages;
yen falls will encourage firms to be more proactive in capex, boost exports.'

Wednesday will see the release of Japan's corp. goods price and machinery orders, Australia's consumer sentiment, Canada's capacity utilization and U.S. wholesale inventories.

 

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Market Review - 11/09/2014 22:33GMT

Dollar rises to a fresh 6-year high verus yen after dovish comments from BOJ governor Kuroda

The greenback jumped to a fresh 6-year high at 107.20 in New York on Thursday after dovish comments from BOJ's governor Kuroda, however, active profit-taking knocked price lower to 106.69 before rebounding.

Bank of Japan's Kuroda said cannot comment on specific FX levels; FX market seems to be focusing on direction of monetary policies of U.S., Japan, Europe; don't see current yen weakness as extremely negative for Japan's economy; U.S. economy is recovering steadily, allowing Fed to taper asset purchases while Bank of Japan is maintaining its massive stimulus; Japan Q2 economy contracted due to tax hike impact but what's important is Q3 rebound, how economy performs thereafter; it's true we saw some weak economic data but expect Jul-Sep GDP to turn positive; not true Bank of Japan has no options available if it were to ease further; we will adjust policy, ready to easy policy further if we feel we are not making steadily progress toward meeting price target; for now, I don't think there is any need for additional policy steps.

The single currency fell briefly to an intra-day low at 1.2897 at European open on Thursday due to cross-selling of euro versus sterling (eur/gbp dropped to 0.7942), however, buying interest on short-covering lifted price to 1.2952 in New York morning before easing.

European Central Bank President Mario Draghi urged governments to match the ECB's effort with investment and structural reforms to help the flagging euro zone grow. Draghi said it may also be useful to have a discussion about the overall fiscal stance of the euro zone with a view to raising public investment where possible.

In other news, EU's Van Rompuy said new Russia sanctions will take effect Friday; EU may suspend or amend sanctions based on review of peace moves to be carried out by end-Sep; EU could repeal Russia sanctions in all or in part if situation on ground warrants.

The British pound found renewed buying interest at 1.6186 in Asia and then ratcheted higher to 1.6270 in New York morning before retreating briefly to 1.6214.

Bank of England's Kohn said exit from unconventional monetary policy likely to be positive for UK economy and markets; exit not without dangers, due to possible mispricing of credit, interest rate and liquidity risks; banks should not expect Bank of England to require them hold more capital at every stage of business cycle than before crisis.

Friday will see the relesae of New Zealand's manufacturing PMI, Japan's capacity utility index and industrial output, eurozone employment and industrial production, U.S. exports, imports, retail sales, University of Michigan sentiment and business inventories.

 

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AceTraderFx Sept 16: Intra-Day News & Views USD/JPY

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
16 Sep 2014

USD/JPY - ..... anticipated comments from BoJ Governor Kuroda, quote:

Business fixed investment is expected to continue its moderate increasing trend as corporate profits are expected to continue improving on the whole.
Exports are expected to head for a moderate increase, there are signs of pickup.
while there are concerns including geopolitical risks in some parts of the world, the global economy is likely to continue recovering.
Disinflationary trend a matter of concern in euro area, but area's economy likely to continue recovering moderately due to ecb steps.
Some geopolitical risks, including those in ukraine and iraq, still warrant attention.
CPI likely to reach boj's price target of 2 percent around the middle of the current projection period from fiscal 2014 through 2016.
If outlook changes due to manifestation of risks and it is judged necessary for achieving the price stability target, boj will make policy adjustments without hesitation.
Japan's economy has thus been on a path suggesting that the 2 percent price stability target will be achieved as expected, although we are only halfway there.
Japan's economy has continued to recover moderately as a trend.
Employment and income situation has continued to improve steadily, and household sentiment has been improving.
Virtuous cycle from income to spending has been operating steadily in both household and corporate sectors.
Effects of decline in demand following april sales tax hike have gradually begun to wane on the whole.
Even since before the tax hike in april this year, the boj's outlook for economic activity and prices has factored in the two rounds of consumption tax hikes.
Output has recently shown some weakness, exports have lacked momentum

 

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AceTraderFx Sept 17: Intra-Day News & Views (USD/JPY)

Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views

17 Sep 2014 USD/JPY

The former Ministry of Finance official Eisuke Sakakibara, who was known as "Mr. Yen" for his efforts to influence exchange rates in the mid 1990s, said in an interview in Tokyo on Tuesday that the yen will fall to 110 per dollar as early as this year, hurting Japan's economy as wages lag behind inflation driven by higher import costs.

"The negative side of a weak yen is evident in an economy that is struggling,". "I'm not a proponent of the 2 percent inflation target. As long as the growth rate is high, it doesn't matter if price gains are near zero.'

"The Japanese economy isn't all that bad, so the yen won't just keep on weakening," he said. "It's not going to fall to 130 or 140 per dollar."

Trading the greenback was tricky on Tuesday as price swung wildly.
Despite rebounding from Asian 106.93 low to 107.33 at European open after comments from BOJ governor Kuroda, price briefly dropped to a session low of 106.81 in NY on WSJ webcast saying the Fed will stick to near-zero rate language on Wed. Later, rally in the Dow to record high boosted risk sentiment, dlr rebounded to to 107.22 and then 107.28 shortly after Asian open, helped by gain in Nikkei in Tokyo morning (currently up 17 points to 15928).

Dlr's overnight rebound suggests buying on dips is still the favoured stragtegy but sharp gain beyond last Friday's 6-year peak at 107.40 is unlikely ahead of the release of Fed's latest policy statements (18:00GMT) and then Fed Chair Yellen's press conference. Bids are placed at 107.10-00 and then 106.85/80 with stops emerging below 106.60, whilst offers from various are noted at 107.40-50 and further out at 107.75/80 with stops emerging just above 108.00.

Market expects the Fed to keep interest rate at ultra-low level on Wednesday and to cut its monthly bond-buying program to $15 bln from $25 bln. Investors are hoping to see a timetable as to when U.S. interest rates may rise and focus more on wording the closing of its bond-buying program.

 

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AceTraderFx Sept 18: Intra-Day News & Views (USD/JPY) & data to be released today

Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views

18 Sep 2014 02:12GMT
USD/JPY - ..... Statement from Japan Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary, quote:
'no truth to report Japan will announce stronger sanction on Russia tomorrow;
will take appropriate action focusing on coordination with G7, on sanctions vs Russia.'

Japan's MoF, their FinMin Taro Aso and U.S. Treasury Secretary Jack Lew will hold a bilateral meeting on Fri ahead of a weekend gathering of finance leaders in Cairns, Australia.
The ministry said that the 2 sides will likely discuss the ECO. situations of their countries as well as the world economy.

Reuters reported the meeting will take place after the dollar broke above 108 yen, a 6-year high versus the Japanese currency, although it was unknown if the two finance chiefs would discuss currencies.


Thursday will see the release of New Zealand's GDP, Japan's import, export and trade balance, China's house prices, Swiss trade balance and interest rate decision, U.K. retail sales, CBI trends, U.S. building permits, housing starts, initial jobless claims, Philly Fed business index and U.K. Independence referendum.

 

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AceTraderFx Sept 22: Intra-Day News & Views (USD/JPY) & data to be released today

Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views
22 Sep 2014 02:58GMT

USD/JPY - ...... Statement from OECD's Tamaki:
'up to BoJ Kuroda to decide whether to deploy additional monetary easing;
BoJ should commit as early as possible to maintain monetary easing beyond next spring;
don't want Japan to resort to big fiscal stimulus to cushion next sales tax hike's impact given the state of public finances.'
'will be hard to achieve BoJ's 2% inflation target next spring;
BoJ should make new monetary policy commitment beyond 2015 to achieve 2% inflation target;
Japan must proceed with fiscal consolidation by implementing sales tax hike next year;
Japan shud resort to near-term stimulus to mitigate downward pressure next sales tax hike.'
On Friday closing, Despite dlr's brief retreat from intra-day fresh 6-year peak of 109.46 (Asia) to 108.59, renewed buying there lifted the pair. More bids are located at 108.50 (sizeable). On the upside, some offers are tipped at 109.15-20.

This week will see the release of Italy's industrial orders and sales, U.S. existing home sales and eurozone consumer confidence on Monday;

China's HSBC manufacturing PMI, German and eurozone Markit service PMI, U.K. PSNB and PSNCR, Canada's retail sales, U.S. Redbook and Markit manufacturing PMI on Tuesday;

New Zealand's exports, imports and trade balance, Japan's Markit manufacturing PMI, Swiss ubs consumption indicator, German Ifo business climate, current conditions and expectations, U.S. new home sales on Wednesday;

U.K. CBI distributive trades, U.S. building permits, durable goods and Markit services PMI on Thursday;

Japan's CPI Germany's Gfk consumer sentiment, France's consumer confidence, U.S. core PCE, GDP in Q2, University of Michigan sentiment on Friday.