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BetOnMarkets Morning Update

Discussion in 'Market Predictions and Reports' started by Erik, Jul 25, 2008.

  1. Erik

    Erik BetOnMarkets Representative

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    The FTSE is currently indicating a sharply lower opening, as traders are worried that the GDP numbers which are released this morning will come out on the weaker end. A weak number would deal another blow to the BOE which has been fighting a war on two fronts, Inflation and a sluggish economy. The good news is that a weaker GDP might force the hand of the BOE to cut interest rates at the next meeting, which would be a positive move for the FTSE.

    Commodities managed to regain some ground after negative news regarding the US new claims data, which showed more then 400,000 new layoffs last week, putting the breaks to the recent strength of the US dollar. Gold which printed a low of under 920 dollars per ounce, is now trading north of the 925 dollar mark. We anticipate that the precious metal will regain more ground today, possibly finishing the day above 935 dollars. Oil which has been the biggest loser this week, managed to stabilize near the 125 dollar per barrel mark, and is currently trading north of 126 dollars. The economic data out of the US should dictate whether the price of oil is going to attempt another shot at 150, or try and break below 120.

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  2. Erik

    Erik BetOnMarkets Representative

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    The FTSE is currently indicating a slightly lower opening, as traders are waiting for the release of the UK Nationwide House prices. While analysts are already expecting house prices to fall another 1.1% last month, there are rumours circulating that there is a risk that the number will be much lower then expected. This would put a squeeze on home builders and financial institutions.
    Gold halted its losses on Friday finishing the day near 930 dollars per ounce. Gold is rising on speculation the dollar will weaken against the euro, boosting the appeal of the precious metals as alternative investments. In fact some traders are saying that the US dollar rally is on it last legs. This should keep gold above 920 for the rest of the week. Oil is on the defence again, as OPEC increased its output, while consumers are decreasing their demand for this pricey commodity. There is potential for oil to fall below the 120 dollar level.
     
  3. Erik

    Erik BetOnMarkets Representative

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    The FTSE is currently indicating a lower opening, as traders are awaiting the release of the UK lending data which will come out around 8.30am GMT. Analysts are expecting another month of contracting mortgage approvals and loan issues as financial institutions are tightening the lending qualification requirements after being burned by the current credit squeeze. Banks have been announcing write downs for 3 quarters totalling more then 250 billion dollars, and some suggest that this is not over just yet. Look for the FTSE financials to take it on the chin this morning if the lending numbers come out worse then expected.

    Oil stood its ground yesterday, as traders are waiting to see if demand has returned with what is now called somewhat cheap oil prices. Crude has given up more then 20 dollars since it hit an all time high earlier this month, however oil prices are up more then 75% from its August 2007 prices. If on Wednesday we do not see the return of consumer demand it is very possible for oil prices to dip below 120 dollars per barrel. Gold which lost more then 50 dollars last week due to the strength of the US dollar, seems to be recovering as some experts are saying that the selloff was overdone. We expect for gold to keep creeping up possibly hitting 940 dollars per barrel before Fridays employment numbers out of the US.
     
  4. Erik

    Erik BetOnMarkets Representative

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    The FTSE is currently indicating a sharply higher opening, as traders are trying to get their positions in before the release of the UK consumer confidence numbers which are released at 11pm GMT tonight. There are rumours circulating that the number will be higher then expected. Traders are proving that the old saying buy on rumours sell on the news works. Look for the FTSE to stay in the green the whole day.

    Gold and oil keep taking it on the chin as both were losers yesterday, oil is on the verge of heading below 120, technicals are indicating that a break of that level opens a move to 110. This could be helped with the employment data from the US which is due on Friday of this week. Gold is giving back all the gains made last week, as the US dollar strengthens against the major currencies especially the commodity pairs (Australian and Canadian dollar). Both have lost ground as gold fell from its 975$ peak. Look for the strength of the US dollar to continue unless economic data shows otherwise
     
  5. Erik

    Erik BetOnMarkets Representative

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    The FTSE is currently indicating a higher opening, while traders are disseminating the worse then expected UK consumer confidence which came out while most traders were sleeping. The confidence index dropped to a record low in July, slipping below the level reached on the eve of the 1990 recession, as house prices slumped and inflation accelerated. We believe that traders believe that these figures will force the Bank of Englands hand and lower interest rates, which would be positive for the FTSE.

    Oil found its footing yesterday as a surprise inventory number out of the US gave some traders reasons to believe that crude's slide was overblown and that the drop in gas supplies means prices have fallen enough to nudge Americans back onto the roads. While oil is trading at 126 dollars a barrel, it is still on the lower end of Julys trading range. We believe that oil prices will trade in a tight range until the US GDP figures come out, if the number is lower then expected, we can see oil prices fall below 120 dollars per barrel.
     
  6. Erik

    Erik BetOnMarkets Representative

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    The FTSE is currently indicating a sharply lower opening, while traders are awaiting the release of the Manufacturing Purchasing index. Analysts are expecting another decline this month, as the economy has been suffering from high energy prices and the squeeze from not being able to pass all the costs to the consumer. Look for the manufacturing sector to be trading in the red this morning.

    Gold will be receiving plenty of attention this morning, especially at 14.30GMT when US releases its employment numbers, traders are expecting a seventh straight month of job losses, and if the unemployment rate comes out worse then expected look for gold to jump possibly hitting the 925 dollar mark before the end of the day.
     
  7. Erik

    Erik BetOnMarkets Representative

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    The FTSE is currently indicating a lower opening, while traders are awaiting the release of the UK Industrial Production number. Analysts are expecting nominal growth of 0.1% for the month of June, which would possibly signal a change for the industry which has contracted almost 2% this year. A number which is stronger then expected will give the FTSE the boost its been lacking in the last few weeks.

    Oil took it on the chin yesterday, after traders realized that the threat of the latest hurricane was all talk. Oil is currently sitting on a strong support level at 120.00 dollars per barrel, however if the last few days were any indication, oil will be pressured lower possibly revisiting the 115 dollar mark before more buyers will be found.
     
  8. Erik

    Erik BetOnMarkets Representative

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    The FTSE is currently indicating a higher opening as traders are hoping that the 3% gains in the US equities market will translate into gains for the FTSE. While there isnt any economic data out of the UK today, traders are getting themselves positioned ahead of the BOE interest rate decision due on Thursday.

    Oil finally broke through the 120 dollar as traders realized that the hurricane is not going to hit any of the oil producing areas in the Gulf of Mexico. Add to this that we are almost finished with the summer driving season, we can see oil dropping below 110 dollars by the end of the month.

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  9. Erik

    Erik BetOnMarkets Representative

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    The FTSE is currently trading flat as traders are looking past Friday and towards the weekend, and who can blame them this has been a long and risk filled week. While there is no economic data out of the UK this morning, it seems like traders are embracing the reversal in the currency market that has been pushing the British Pound lower, making the FTSE an attractive investment to the US investors.

    Oil seems to find a nice level of support before the 115$ per barrel mark, in fact some traders are talking about a technical rebound to the 125 level, which is being postponed due to the strength of the US dollar. Most commodities are going to suffer while the US dollar gains strength mainly due to the fact that those commodities are priced in US dollars

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  10. Erik

    Erik BetOnMarkets Representative

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    The FTSE is currently indicating a stronger open, as traders are awaiting the release of the UK Producer Price Index, which is the measure of inflation incurred by the UK manufacturers. The repeating issue for why the BOE is not cutting the interest rates is inflation, and if todays number comes out weaker then expected, an interest cut becomes a possibility again.

    Commodities took it on the chin last week, as the US dollar steamrolled all the major currencies. Oil, which was one of the losers, is being propped up mainly due to the tension between Russia and Georgia. While a ceasefire has been announced, there is risk for further gains if talks fail. Gold is being pushed along the same lines, as US is backing Georgia in the conflict, and some worry that it might be forced into another war.
     

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