฿ Bitcoin BTC/USD Weekly, August 27 - 31, 2018

[Sive Morten]

Morning guys,

BTC action looks really annoying now - very choppy and nervous. Particular this issue makes me think that another leg down is not too far in time. Price action that we see right now on BTC doesn't look like real reversal - it is too choppy, too much deep intraday pullbacks stands on the market. Mostly it reminds retracement.
Even on daily chart we could draw something like flag consolidation:

On intraday charts there are few scenarios that price could follow. First scenario is downside breakout of trend line - it is most simple way. But, inside the channel we have two major AB-CD patterns. First one is our initial AB-CD and second one is larger pattern. Market could form "222" Sell pattern which agrees with idea of downside action later, but first BTC could move slightly higher. There are two levels to watch for. First OP target stands around 7000$ and near 1.27 extension of butterfly that could be formed here. OP of larger AB-CD coincides with 1.618 butterfly extension. In this case we also will get nice "222". So, they are to levels that potentially suitable for short entry. Of course, ~7300$ looks more attractive, just because more patterns will be finished there.
So, currently price action doesn't look fascinating for long entry.

 

[Sive Morten]

Morning everybody,

today guys we could keep daily chart the same. Here the same flag pattern stands. Yesterday BTC has moved slightly higher and broken 3/8 Fib level. Our nearest destination point is 7000$ and price stands just few bucks below it. But in general, we're watching on the same picture - upside action inside the flag that could be finalized by 1.618 butterfly and AB=CD target.
The major point that we need to keep an eye on today - is BTC weakness around 7000. If it will fail to proceed higher and drop back below 6800 again - it could mean that drop happens earlier. Otherwise, we will look for 7285$ as we've talked yesterday.

 

[Sive Morten]

Greetings, guys

Yesterday BTC has climbed slightly higher and hit OP target by our first AB-CD pattern @ 7000$. Since there was an acceleration right to this point, chances on upside continuation to 1.618 butterfly and OP' of our larger AB-C'D' pattern are not bad. XOP from initial AB-CD pattern coincides with major 5/8 Fib resistance on 4H chart.
Our 1-2 week expectation is downside reversal or deep retracement still, just because market is forming bearish flag on daily, and current action doesn't correspond to nature of reversal action. it is too choppy:

Right now, BTC has completed 1.27 butterfly extension and inner AB=CD pattern. It means that some respect should follow. Most probable targets of downside retracements are 6900 nearest 3/8 Fib level and 6750 K-support.

 

[Sive Morten]

Morning, guys

So, 3/8 retracement that we've suggested yesterday is done on 1H chart. Now we see signs of bullish dynamic pressure, as MACD goes south while price action mostly stands flat. This combination reduces chances on another leg down to K-area around 6775, while mostly hints on upside continuation:

Thus, we still keep valid our 4H upside targets ~ 7300$ first:

 

[Sive Morten]

Greetings everybody,

Despite that BTC has shown minor upside pullback from our 3/8 Fib support, later it still has moved lower to our major K-support area. Also this is an Agreement, because of XOP target of downside AB-CD pattern.

Now, on houry chart we have "222" Buy and fast upside bounce out from major support:

Recent action has no significant impact on 4H time frame, because market still stands there in wide upside channel, and important event will happen when this channel will be broken.

Meantime, recent downside reaction on hourly 1.27 target is sufficient for any bullish market. Thus, if BTC is bullish it should continue upward action. Downside breakout of 6800 K-area will be the sign of weakness, which could increase chances on downside reversal.