EUR/USD Daily Video, February 15, 2018

[Sive Morten]

Good morning,

Although we've got another leg up, but background if this action is different, compares to what we've expected. That's why despite good levels have been reached, this is not time to go short:





The technical portion of Sive's analysis owes a great deal to Joe DiNapoli's methods, and uses a number of Joe's proprietary indicators. Please note that Sive's analysis is his own view of the market and is not endorsed by Joe DiNapoli or any related companies.

 

[FreddyFX]

Guess it is better to just sit this out and see what happens the coming trading days.

 

[ward133]

Thank you again mr sive

 

[Stag]

My Elliott Wave Theory based approach says that there is no evidence EURUSD has ended its press higher. Given that the decline from the January top isn’t clearly impulsive (seems to be an „abc” corrective structure instead), a rally above 1.2523 would give credence to the idea wave 4 low was in place at 1.2206 and wave 5 is unfolding. A drop below 1.2451 would suggest the likelihood of a top (or temporary top) in place and would indicate it has begun to correct. A drop ending in 1.2392 – 1.2276 area still would be treated as a correction, a decline below 1.2276 would suggest further weakness.

 

[fxmajorscam]

Do not forget FED and US criminal banks who dump USD in order to transfer more money out of Europe. That is the new tax regulation, as US corporations will pay only 8 percent interest on the repatriated profits. Guys, nothing makes sense any more. Why would GBP go up, with so many problems around BREXIT? Because, that is where most of the money is, denominated in GBP and EUR. That is why they need to inflate those currencies, as they will transfer more USD back to USA. This is clearly a criminal action, and where is SEC now, to fine the big banks for that?
The latest two months have produced unbelievable move in GBP and EUR in particular. all in all, that is the explanation. And, as long as those criminals keep their positions, USDx will just continue down. Any time the retail traders take profit, they immediately jump in, and take the position. And, it is all done by supercomputers now. So, we are not in a level playing field of any kind, especially not now.

 

[Sive Morten]

My Elliott Wave Theory based approach says that there is no evidence EURUSD has ended its press higher. Given that the decline from the January top isn’t clearly impulsive (seems to be an „abc” corrective structure instead), a rally above 1.2523 would give credence to the idea wave 4 low was in place at 1.2206 and wave 5 is unfolding. A drop below 1.2451 would suggest the likelihood of a top (or temporary top) in place and would indicate it has begun to correct. A drop ending in 1.2392 – 1.2276 area still would be treated as a correction, a decline below 1.2276 would suggest further weakness.

Stag, very cool. Thank you for insight! I'm actually not an expert in EW. This is sophisticated approach to markets and usually just few comments appears here. It will be great if you will put your EW analysis from time to time in weekly thread, especially with charts...

Do not forget FED and US criminal banks who dump USD in order to transfer more money out of Europe. That is the new tax regulation, as US corporations will pay only 8 percent interest on the repatriated profits. Guys, nothing makes sense any more. Why would GBP go up, with so many problems around BREXIT? Because, that is where most of the money is, denominated in GBP and EUR. That is why they need to inflate those currencies, as they will transfer more USD back to USA. This is clearly a criminal action, and where is SEC now, to fine the big banks for that?
The latest two months have produced unbelievable move in GBP and EUR in particular. all in all, that is the explanation. And, as long as those criminals keep their positions, USDx will just continue down. Any time the retail traders take profit, they immediately jump in, and take the position. And, it is all done by supercomputers now. So, we are not in a level playing field of any kind, especially not now.

Yes, I also thought about it. May be this is the core indeed...
But most investors do not think so deep, that's why right now most pragmatic explanations is US deficit balooning due tax drop and national debt of 30 Trln (If I do not confuse something) within 10 years due Trump government spending on different reforms and programs. Significant increasing of debt burden mitigates positive impact of Fed policy when it happens on a background of huge money supply growth...

 

[Stag]

Stag, very cool. Thank you for insight! I'm actually not an expert in EW. This is sophisticated approach to markets and usually just few comments appears here. It will be great if you will put your EW analysis from time to time in weekly thread, especially with charts...

Thank you Sive, it's an honor for me. I'm happy to share my opinion on how the price action looks like from an EWT perspective, since we are approaching a critical juncture now on the long run.

 

[Venelin]

Thank you Sive, it's an honor for me. I'm happy to share my opinion on how the price action looks like from an EWT perspective, since we are approaching a critical juncture now on the long run.

Euro is due for 3 wave down IMO.:

 

[Venelin]

Fundamentaly speaking, Euro,Oil, S&P, Gold all are up. Something has to give up. IMO is the euro, unless the risk-on correlation is back(which I doubt). Also as far as the tax reform trade-what happens with all the USD repatriation back home-it will be nasty. It is a matter of when-As always Good luck all!

 

[Sive Morten]

Fundamentaly speaking, Euro,Oil, S&P, Gold all are up. Something has to give up. IMO is the euro, unless the risk-on correlation is back(which I doubt). Also as far as the tax reform trade-what happens with all the USD repatriation back home-it will be nasty. It is a matter of when-As always Good luck all!

Yep! It seems indeed... Yesterday's close is quite different to what we saw in the morning.
So, may be our "down" setup has not failed yet...