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Forex EUR/USD Daily Video, February 22, 2019

Discussion in 'Sive Morten- Currencies and Gold Video Analysis' started by Sive Morten, Feb 22, 2019.

  1. Sive Morten

    Sive Morten Special Consultant to the FPA

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    Good morning,

    EUR stands in tight range so both scenarios are valid by far. Let's take a look at nuances:



    The technical portion of Sive's analysis owes a great deal to Joe DiNapoli's methods, and uses a number of Joe's proprietary indicators. Please note that Sive's analysis is his own view of the market and is not endorsed by Joe DiNapoli or any related companies.
     
    stelore likes this.
  2. Brett Reynolds

    Brett Reynolds Sergeant Major

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    The Markets are 'Dead'. No one is is 'Betting on Anything' until 'Brexit'.
     
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  3. MarleyForex

    MarleyForex Recruit

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    Dear Sive

    I have a few questions:
    1. When we long or short forex spot, who is the counter party ? the banks ?
    2. Does the expiration of SWAP and futures influence spot price ?
    3. Do speculators have the financial strength to move spot price ?
    4. Do the bank at any given time know the strategies of small retail traders ? is it because they know how we trade and the indicators and signals we use ?
    5. When we lose a trade, who is the counter party that wins ? is it the banks ?
     
  4. Sive Morten

    Sive Morten Special Consultant to the FPA

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    Hi Marley,
    1&5. Speaking about "us" the clients of retrail brokers - your counterparty is retail broker. 90% transactions do not translate on real market and locked inside broker's trading system. Broker knows that 90% clients loose the capital in 1st year. Broker hedges net position (difference between all shorts and longs of all clients) on larger broker/bank.
    2. It is needed special analysis for that. But I would suggest that in most cases there are no effect, from time to time it could be effect just within few hours in the day of expiration. The reason for that - most futures are not deliver currency, they would be closed by netting, the winner will get the difference as P&L but not exchage whole volume of contract by sending currency accross the globe. The same is for swaps. Delivery options and futures take very small part of total contracts in turnover. Second - futures market turnover is too small compares to spot FX.
    So, as a bottom line I suggest that delivery swaps or forwards of large banks or companies that hedge currency risk, on spot , over-the-counter market (not futures market) could impact the price, but reaction will happen quite rare and will be short term. Besides, you never know about these contracts, so it is impossible to put the bet on this.
    3. Yes, why not. Just take a look at price and net speculators position by CFTC report. Besides, "Speculators" is very blur term. It depends on your view, who is speculator by your opinion.
    4. They do not need it. They see positions of big banks on spot market. All large brokers hedge their net positions in banks.
     
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