Forex EUR/USD Daily Video, July 17, 2023

[Sive Morten]

Good morning,

EUR has great sentiment but technically is overextended and at strong weekly resistance. that's why we do not consider any new longs by far, waiting for moderate pullback:

 

[Amadeus Vega]

The price has broken above its ATH in the last year and you are saying that you do not consider any long?! What do you need to consider long position? because what i see is 90% chance of long, possibly after a correction phase

 

[Sive Morten]

The price has broken above its ATH in the last year and you are saying that you do not consider any long?! What do you need to consider long position? because what i see is 90% chance of long, possibly after a correction phase

Hi Amadeus, you just have watched video inattentively. We do not consider it for nearest time because of overbought. Actually you write the same - "possibly after a correction phase".

 

[Fandorin]

Hi Sive,
I respect you as an expert in forex and in world finance and economics. However, you, as everybody, make mistakes somitimes. It would be of great value if you explain why the currencies went not in the way you predicted/expected. In particular, why there was such a histerical rise in eurusd in the past 3-4 days, without any pullback? Also, how do marketmakers make their money, especially in this situation. Thank you.

 

[Sive Morten]

Hi Sive,
I respect you as an expert in forex and in world finance and economics. However, you, as everybody, make mistakes somitimes.

Hi mate, no doubts. I always tell that my work here and efficiency are overvalued by our forum members. Here everybody just are too kind to me.

It would be of great value if you explain why the currencies went not in the way you predicted/expected. In particular, why there was such a histerical rise in eurusd in the past 3-4 days, without any pullback?

Well, this is more theoretical question rather than practical. In two words speaking, the driver is twofold. First is - drop of CPI inflation suggests less hikes from the Fed, which makes US Dollar less attractive, as interest rates on it will be not as high as initially expected.
Second - ECB is still on the way of rate hike, which turns short-term balance in favor of EUR, making it tactically more attractive for now. This is the reason of EUR/USD recent rally. Additionally, initial claims data was a bit lower, so this also has added a bit of positive.

Also, how do marketmakers make their money, especially in this situation. Thank you.

Well, I never work as a market maker, but usually they earn the bid/ask spread, matching opposite clients positions. If total position takes some direction they hedge it with the counter one. They do not get money on direction, but on turnover size.

 

[Jalby]

Thanks, Sive, for your analysis. Would it be possible to give your thoughts on the CHF crosses please. Like the CADCHF at an all-time low with strength in the CHF across the board. I was always taught that when the CHF is with strength it could mean not a good sign with the macro global situation in the world.
Thank you

 

[Sive Morten]

Thanks, Sive, for your analysis. Would it be possible to give your thoughts on the CHF crosses please. Like the CADCHF at an all-time low with strength in the CHF across the board. I was always taught that when the CHF is with strength it could mean not a good sign with the macro global situation in the world.
Thank you

Hi Jalby, indeed, CHF is safe haven currency, so it is reasonable what you've said. To be honest I never trade and watch crosses, so do not have a lot of experience with them. I'll try to take a look