EUR/USD Daily Video, October 31, 2013

[Sive Morten]

Good morning,
In long-term period we still need to see some pattern on daily as a reaction on solid monthly resistance. Since we've got it yet, currently we can deal with trend only:






The technical portion of Sive's analysis owes a great deal to Joe DiNapoli's methods, and uses a number of Joe's proprietary indicators. Please note that Sive's analysis is his own view of the market and is not endorsed by Joe DiNapoli or any related companies.

 

[Brett Reynolds]

Well Sive. After waiting all week for FOMC and hopefully to get some definitive direction it all seems a bit 'foggy'! This could be a good word for you to use as it seems that your commentary of late has been somewhat 'laboured' due to the 'procrastination' in the markets. (Sorry for the excessive 'verbiage'..i must be bored!) However your updates are nevertheless appreciated and it seems that the Kiwi/$ trade is still 'on the cards'.
Today's outlook on the euro sounds quite bearish with not much of a retracement due in time? This somewhat conflicts with yesterdays outlook on 'Cable' where you mentioned the possible 'Butterfly Sell' on the Daily Timeframe. As Cable and euro usually 'track' each other doesn't this present a problem or conflict in your commentary..?

 

[Sive Morten]

Today's outlook on the euro sounds quite bearish with not much of a retracement due in time? This somewhat conflicts with yesterdays outlook on 'Cable' where you mentioned the possible 'Butterfly Sell' on the Daily Timeframe. As Cable and euro usually 'track' each other doesn't this present a problem or conflict in your commentary..?

Hi Brett, actually I've talked only about possible bounce on GBP and that it could be butterfly, but I didn't say that it should be butterfly Other words the core was a possible DiNapoli scalp directional pattern and butterfly could become a consequence but not vice versa.
EUR and GBP sometimes deviate - just look at EUR/GBP. It happens when they move not due USD but by either EUR or GBP. When they both are driven by USD, sure, they go in the same direction.

 

[SonicYouth]

So, in resume, as I told in my last post comments I sold EUR/USD @1.38305, then price went up 1 pip for less than 1 minute and then went to my target at 1.3580. Minimax where are you? I remember you were one of the few ones who really paid some attention to my forecast.
Sive, I really think you are an excellent analyst but this time I had to disagree in what concerned to EUR predictability... It was very obvious to me that EUR would have to go down. Anyway, keep up your excellent work sir!

 

[Kleinerbroker]

Good morning , as we all trade probabilities , we use StopLoss . SL´s protected my cash in Cable, they helped me compensate for some nonsens-entries I did myself with high lotsizes at low timeframes . And yesterday evening they made me cut my profits few times when I shortened the EU with high lotsize but being so scared, that I put BE much too early . Now , finally , I am running an overnight fat short trade locked @ BE and hope well "sink" more .


I had a very good (benchmark for me) October and this is to be seen cleary in relation to Siva´s daily & weekly . His hitrate is impressive , if it would be a 100% he would have found the holly grail, which we all know, it does not exist .

So, Spasiba @ Siva ! Special thanks, that you keep on the educational focus in your analisis which allows us (me) to learn from you step/step .

KB

 

[SonicYouth]

Good morning , as we all trade probabilities , we use StopLoss . SL´s protected my cash in Cable, they helped me compensate for some nonsens-entries I did myself with high lotsizes at low timeframes . And yesterday evening they made me cut my profits few times when I shortened the EU with high lotsize but being so scared, that I put BE much too early . Now , finally , I am running an overnight fat short trade locked @ BE and hope well "sink" more .


I had a very good (benchmark for me) October and this is to be seen cleary in relation to Siva´s daily & weekly . His hitrate is impressive , if it would be a 100% he would have found the holly grail, which we all know, it does not exist .

So, Spasiba @ Siva ! Special thanks, that you keep on the educational focus in your analisis which allows us (me) to learn from you step/step .

KB

I totally agree with you. I would only add the fact that having 100% hitrate is not that difficult if you risk an ultra small % of your AUM and wait for ages (months, years or decades) untill your target is reached. In my humble opinion the main challenge for retail directional traders is to maximize the absolute return, minimize drawdowns and minimize maximum adverse excursions per trade.

 

[Kleinerbroker]

I totally agree with you. I would only add the fact that having 100% hitrate is not that difficult if you risk an ultra small % of your AUM and wait for ages (months, years or decades) untill your target is reached. In my humble opinion the main challenge for retail directional traders is to maximize the absolute return, minimize drawdowns and minimize maximum adverse excursions per trade.

Dear Sonic

my post was no reply to any of your posts , I did not read them till now . I am busy learning from Sive . Now you called my attention , I did read the one post above and I want to congratulate you : 1.38305 down to 1.3580 is great . The more , as you had only one PIP DD and this for less than one minute . You are there & I am not . Once again my congrats .

Have a great weekend .... whilst I continue learning .

KB

PS.: If I (and lots of other people do the same) intend to address somebody in specific,than I use " @ Sonic : ...." . I did not .
But I did write "So, Spasiba @ Siva ! Special thanks, that you keep on the educational focus in your analisis which allows us (me) to learn from you step/step ."

 

[SonicYouth]

Hi KB!

No problem, I know you weren't addressing me, I just took the opportunity to network a bit Learning from Sive is the best thing you can do, many traders and analysts talk too much about lagged indicators, Sive and his price action analyses are way more efficient.
Do not congratulate me sir, let's instead try to empower our trading efficiency by putting together different (and if possible also complementary) analyses!
Another great user is Minimax I think. I've already learned some good things from him.
About the fact that I commented a comment that was not addressed to me, I hope I wasn't indelicate. I was trying to share some knowledge and enthusiasm.
Have an awesome weekend!