FOREX PRO WEEKLY, July 23 - 27, 2018

Morning guys, PassPP asked me so a quick update again on my last week post.

Intraday

The Euro followed my preferred scenario and took a sharp reversal in the red target zone advancing in an impulsive manner from there, exceeding my minimum price target.

To make it short, as long as prices are trending above 1.168x chances are that the Euro will try to reach the dark green zone or even beyond. Breaking below 1.168 would open the door for further weakness towards back below 1.16.

Weekly

If you apply the KCT technique on a daily chart or above, you can see an attempt of a break above the yellow price channel. Closing above on the weekly timeframe would be an early sign of further bullishness (see Fib 38-62% levels). So worth watching for weekly close.

Good luck!

Hi guys, I'm back now and just wanted to show you why the Euro is in a tricky phase approaching a critical juncture if you apply the KCT technique. Prices still can go higher, but MACD shows an early sign of a potential zero line reversal may be under development (bearish sign, still needs a few more sessions).

Daily

EU_180726_d_Bloomberg.gif
 
Hi guys, I'm back now and just wanted to show you why the Euro is in a tricky phase approaching a critical juncture if you apply the KCT technique. Prices still can go higher, but MACD shows an early sign of a potential zero line reversal may be under development (bearish sign, still needs a few more sessions).

Daily

View attachment 38629
Hearty welcome dear stag
 
Hi Stag, welcome back (there was cool photo, btw ;)
Could you please explain, what "zero line reversal" means.

Hi Sive, sure. Many people use MACD as a mechanical buy/sell system to enter the market when the signal line crosses the MACD line. I do not use it this way because as a trend following indicator MACD provides more information we call Hook, Slingshot and Zero Line Reversal (ZLR). We can use them to alert us to potential trading opportunities. Combined with the Wave Principle also can be used to confirm wave counts.

Hooks mainly identify opportunities to re-join the trend. A ZLR occurs when either the signal line or the MACD line falls/rallies to near the zero line and then reverses. When it occurs from below, it is a bearish reversal sign. See a few examples below.

In our case, if it will prove itself to be a ZLR, it coincides with a wave 4 interpretation in the Euro, followed by a wave five decline towards new lows. Will see within a few sessions.

Examples

Hook-ZLR.jpg
 
Morning everybody,

EUR was not able to keeps with pure bullish scenario and yesterday price has formed reversal session - as it has climbed above previous top and closed below the lows. Usually reversal candles very rare ends immediately. They have continuation. And if we wouldn't have GDP today, I would say - "don't be long" as chances on downward continuation are solid.
Stil, despite some bearish signs, they do not cancel bullish scenario totally. EUR still has technical possibility to turn up from lower levels. Besides, even now we have some bullish patterns and if GDP will be weaker than 4.2% - EUR could turn up again:
eur_d_27_07_18.png


For instance, we have "222' Buy on 4H chart right at major 5/8 Fib support. Yes recent plunge looks scaring but again - this is the question of GDP numbers.
eur_4h_27_07_18.png


On 1H chart we have DRPO "Buy" that could trigger upside action.
eur_1h_27_07_18.png


That's being said, technical picture tells that it is better to postpone entry on a long side, but today we have GDP, that could turn situation drastically. Thus, if you're thinking on long entry - this is the moment right now where you need to act. Existed support should trigger some upside response, at least technical one, and this will help you to move stops to breakeven.

Alternatively, it is possible to wait for next week and get GDP numbers first. It is conservative tactics, but currently impossible to say wether it will give worse or better entry levels.
 
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