FOREX PRO Weekly June 06 -10, 2011

[rashidin5178]

that is not a valid pattern because the first wing of harmonic should be in the opposite with the main trend, in your case the first wing is pointing upward which is the same direction with the main trend hence this is not a good harmonic pattern, as you can see now market continue go lower

Hi nicolebobbin,

I'm very new in harmonic pattern trading. For the time being I think Bat buy pattern just finish the right wing. In fact I think this pattern is almost perfect. See X-B= .382, X-D= .886 and B-D= 2.618. But I realize sometime harmonic pattern also fail. And when it fail, obviously it tell us something different. Maybe be the failure is due to MACD divergence (bearish) on H4 or/and other reasons. At least we gain some experience when we face with the same scenario next time.

What is your opinion?

Need a lot of guidance from other experience traders.

Thanks.

 

[nicolebobbin]

Hi Sive, You and other experts from MIGBANK are watching for the critical level 1.4711 - 1.4730 and wait for a sell set up, but is there any chance that market would start to drop without touching this area ? It is 1.4625 right now and chance to touch 1.4720 again look blur

 

[Joshnix]

Hi Sive, You and other experts from MIGBANK are watching for the critical level 1.4711 - 1.4730 and wait for a sell set up, but is there any chance that market would start to drop without touching this area ? It is 1.4625 right now and chance to touch 1.4720 again look blur

Nicole,
To me if the market does not hit your signal, then there is a no trade on that and you need to look for other entries, or wait to see if your level is hit. Take his analysis seriously but market will not always react exactly the way he says, market makers do some frustrating things.

 

[Sive Morten]

One more question, what is the target of this pattern? Is it 1.4720 as per your daily analysis?

Thanks again

Hi Rashidin,
Usual target is some retracement level from inner AD swing. But could be also a larger extension of the whole X-A-D pattern.

that is not a valid pattern because the first wing of harmonic should be in the opposite with the main trend, in your case the first wing is pointing upward which is the same direction with the main trend hence this is not a good harmonic pattern, as you can see now market continue go lower

Hi Nicole,
This is not always so. There are as continuation patterns as reversal. You're speaking about Butterfly and you're right. But here is "222" or Bat - this is continuation pattern that assumes enter in the direction of initial XA swing. That's why it could be as in the direction of major trend as opposite to it.

Hi nicolebobbin,

I'm very new in harmonic pattern trading. For the time being I think Bat buy pattern just finish the right wing. In fact I think this pattern is almost perfect. See X-B= .382, X-D= .886 and B-D= 2.618. But I realize sometime harmonic pattern also fail. And when it fail, obviously it tell us something different. Maybe be the failure is due to MACD divergence (bearish) on H4 or/and other reasons. At least we gain some experience when we face with the same scenario next time.

What is your opinion?

Need a lot of guidance from other experience traders.

Thanks.

Hi Sive, You and other experts from MIGBANK are watching for the critical level 1.4711 - 1.4730 and wait for a sell set up, but is there any chance that market would start to drop without touching this area ? It is 1.4625 right now and chance to touch 1.4720 again look blur

Hi Nicole,
yes, our expectation about 3-Drive looks like failed and now it's more probable to see H&S on hourly chart. We have to watch at 1.4650 area. See daily update below for more details.

 

[Sive Morten]

EUR/USD Daily Update, Thu 09, June 2011

Good morning,
situation on EUR becomes more and more interesting. Now on daily time frame we see bearish engulfing that is right below 0.786 resistance. That gives us some confidence with our nedium term expectation of Butterfly "Sell'.

But this is also worries me - engulfing that has not touched 0.786 resistance, very curious...

On hourly chart we see, that market has stepped out from our potential 3-Drive to sweety H&S pattern. The problem is that it looks too sweet. And we know that H&S oftener fails on hourly charts that works...

my suspicions will become clearer for you, if you remember what we wait on daily time frame due to recent swing up - it could be DRPO "Sell" or B&B "Buy", right?
During DRPO market very often shows higher second top. Now think a bit and link this possibility with the fact that engulfing stands just below 0.786 and market is forming hourly H&S...
Right. If H&S will fail, i.e. market will take out it's highs - then, first, it will reach 0.786, second it will show higher top of DRPO. Hence, if H&S will fail at hourly chart, then more probable daily scenario is DRPO "Sell".

If H&S will work ,then probably it will be B&B "Buy". Because market will reach some Fib support at daily time frame, I suppose it will be 1.4450.

What we could do today?
Look at 15-min chart. Our task is to establish position before market will reach neckline of H&S pattern. And we should keep an eye on 1.4650 area - this is Agreement with 0.618 resistance from the head. If market really intends to go lower - it should not break it to upside. It should hold harmony in H&S pattern.

If we see some sell signals there - we may try enter short, and move S/L to B/E when market will approach to the neck line.

 

[nicolebobbin]

wonderful recommendation !!! I like thissss !!!!!

 

[timsar]

Thank you sir! You are a master, thanks for sharing your knowledge!

 

[nicolebobbin]

If H&S will work ,then probably it will be B&B "Buy". Because market will reach some Fib support at daily time frame, I suppose it will be 1.4450.

1.4650 hold , we can enter short, but I dont see any signal yet

 

[BackSpace]

???

1.4450 hold , we can enter short, but I dont see any signal yet

I'm not sure what you mean.

If 14450 holds we can enter short.
EURUSD is currently at 14620.
Can you explain what you mean ?

Regards,
BackSpace

 

[rashidin5178]

Hi Sive,

Great analysis, Sir. I like the way you explain on your analysis today. I like when you include the possibilities. I think, 'if and if' in your analysis is very important because sometime market do not react as per your prediction. Personally, I think this is the best way of analysis when you also taking care of both direction of the market like your today analysis.

Your duty as our beloved Special Consultant is to advice us based on your knowledge and experience; and our duty is to digest your recommendation and take necessary step. Any consequences should not be blame to you. I think most of us understand about this.

You WORLD Sir!