Forex Trading Signal 02/23/09

Crazy Cat

Former FPA Special Consultant
Messages
752
Hey folks,

Here is the video:
02-23-2009.swf

Friday's UK Retail Sales came out better than expected, barely hitting our trigger, but made a nice rally, retrace, and eventual rally even higher that provided opportunities to make money with a variety of strategies. CAD CPI coming out lower than expected by 0.3% created an unexpected dip at first, but eventually recovered and saw some upside if you bought the dip. Lastly, US CPI came out just a hair higher in the "goldilocks" range that made us look for an EUR/USD rally, but it explored downside a bit on EUR/USD before an eventual big reversal higher.

For today:

0830 CAD Retail Sales (headline) m/m (-2.7% expected)
If it comes out at -1.7% or higher, USD/CAD should weaken by 30-40 pips in the first half hour.
If it comes out at -3.7% or lower, USD/CAD should strengthen by 30-40 pips in the first half hour.
Look out for conflicts on the core number as well.

One other note, my short EUR/USD bias for a position trade sell has altered course for the time being. See the video for more details, but some technical breaks and correllation shifts have me eyeing higher prices on EUR/USD that makes me want to get out of my shorts, and potentially get back in short at much higher levels. Also, as usual, I'm expecting further stock weakness to new lows on the S&P. We might get some consolidation or minor recovery this week, but that does not phase the medium term negative outlook.

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