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Forex Trading Signal 03/18/09

Discussion in 'Current Forex Trading Signals' started by Crazy Cat, Mar 18, 2009.

  1. Crazy Cat

    Crazy Cat Former FPA Special Consultant

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    Hey Folks,

    Here is the video:
    03-18-2009.swf

    Yesterday's German ZEW came in only a bit better than expected, but still managed a decent rally on EUR/USD. It didn't hit our triggers, but it's nice to see some more healthy, typical news-type price action from a smaller deviation. US PPI came in just slightly higher and not tradable, but the wild card, US Housing Starts came in much better than expected and led towards a modest rally on EUR/JPY. The big focus tomorrow will be the FOMC Interest Rate Statement, but there is some other data out:

    0530 BoE Minutes (Unanimous vote count expected) & Claimant Count Change (84.5K expected) - The BoE Minutes will likely dominate the price action with traders potentially picking apart their language to look for reassurance or signs of further calamity. Claimant Count Change will help provide some upwards pressure if it comes in 10K+ lower than expected or downwards pressure to GBP/USD if it comes in 15K+ higher than expected.

    0830 US CPI Ex Food & Energy m/m (0.1% expected) - This is a tough one to really put our finger on because of the shifting focus between deflation and inflation from the markes, but deflation still tends to be the predominant view, so we'll trade it from that angle.
    If it comes out at 0.2%, EUR/JPY should rally by 30-40 pips.
    If it comes out at -0.1% or lower, EUR/JPY should sell off by 30-40 pips or more.
    If it comes out at +0.3% or higher, EUR/JPY may see some rough volatility, so I would stay out.

    1415 US FOMC Interest Rate Statement - Traders will likely focus on whether or not they expanded their rate of asset backed securities purchases. On top of that, any new forecasts, ideas or dissention thrown into the mix will lead to some sharp risk aversion or risk appetite.
    If they are not expanding their purchasing program and things don't seem very reassuring, look to short EUR/USD but I recommend waiting for some confirmation like a 5 minute red candle and taking it as a swing trade.
    If they are reassuring and/or highlight plans to aggressively expand their purchasing program, look for something similar but opposite on a EUR/USD long.

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    Sir Pipsalot has a live trading room, in which he trades these news reports. There, he shares his trades in real time, including exact entries and exits, and detailed explanation for every entry and exit. The service costs $299 per month, but we have a 14-days $39.00 trial. Go to Forex Diamonds and take advantage of this offer. This offer is for NEW customers only.

    To our success,
    Sir Pipsalot
     
  2. y.caesar

    y.caesar Recruit

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    Good call on this. What I'd like to know, if you don't mind, please tell me how you know whether the market is in either deflation or inflation focus. If one trades solely on the numbers...in this case higher core cpi m/m...based on the historical data, one would expect that eur/usd to go down significantly.
    Are there lists of websites that you check out first to determine whether the market is in deflation or inflation focus? If yes, would you mind sharing them to us?
    I understand about beating the expectations numbers game, but i'm having a hard time determining which "focus" the market is in expecting that number.
    Please advise. Thanks.

    Regards,

    Yulius
     
  3. ChrisEccles

    ChrisEccles Private, 1st Class

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    Cheeky rally across the seas

    The BoE data wasn't out until 09:30 GMT, yet the lion's share
    of skyrocketing on EUR/GBP began happening as I was watching
    my charts at around 06:50 GMT !
    -
    Now, either some really major players have been sleeping with
    a gypsy, or else this info got 'leaked' to some institutionals ahead
    of time. Which do you think ?
    -
    Luckily, I got 25 pips on the retracement down from 0.9410 to
    within a squeak of its first Fib, so I'm a happy bunny, but this kind
    of thing makes you wonder who's pulling whose strings at the
    Old Lady, does it not ... ?

    -
    Chris
     
    #3 ChrisEccles, Mar 18, 2009
    Last edited: Mar 18, 2009
  4. ChrisEccles

    ChrisEccles Private, 1st Class

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    As well as FPA, I would get a sub to Kathy Lien at FX360 Alerts, whose
    insight into the state of the nation is second to none. I find her commentary
    a valuable asset before opening my charts of a morning.

    -
    Chris
     
  5. y.caesar

    y.caesar Recruit

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    Thanks for pointing me to a very interesting and helpful site :D
     
  6. Joe Sky

    Joe Sky Recruit

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    Free News for Daily FPA signals??

    If I want to use FPA's free daily signals to trade then I need a news source that gives me the necessary info on time before the trade...Will FPA's Free News Calendar give me the necessary info in time for the trade or are there any other free new sources I can use that will give me the info in time for the trades??? If not, what would be the cheapest news I could get that would work ok??
     

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