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Forex Trading Signal 08/07/09

Discussion in 'Current Forex Trading Signals' started by Crazy Cat, Aug 7, 2009.

  1. Crazy Cat

    Crazy Cat Former FPA Special Consultant

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    Hey folks,

    I've been doing a lot of analysis and research today that continues to confirm we are at or near significant medium to long term tops on EUR/USD, Silver, Stocks, and many other related currency pairs and markets. Once they start their decline, the manner in which they fall will help identify the scope of the downside. Chances are that stocks will only see a relatively minor correction down to maybe 950 or so before another last run higher, but the Euro and most commodities like silver have either already put in major tops or will top out soon. Again, whether or not the subsequent decline is a matter of weeks or years will become more apparent over time, but for now I'm short across the board about half of what I'm willing to leverage on a long term trade. If we do get some rallies to new highs into more concrete resistance, I'll jump in and double my position. Specifically on the Euro (I know most reading these signals are currency traders) there's some nice resistance in the 1.4600 to 1.4700 range, so that's a good spot to add to a positon trade short with a stop somewhere padded above the earlier 1.4715 high. It's not just about price levels though, it's often about being a contrarian on sentiment. Bullish optimism has reached extremes typically seen near major peaks, and that's an excellent source of confirmation. It doesn't mean things won't get more extreme, but it does mean we're much closer to a top than most people think.

    In news on Thursday, the only real surprise was out of the statement from the BoE where they expended their Asset Purchase Facility by much more than anyone expected. I said yesterday "If they extend or restart the APF with another 25 billion pounds or more, GBP/USD should fall 50+ pips." Well, they increased it by 50 billion pounds and the GBP/USD shot down by 140 pips very quickly and has since sold off even more. I am bearish long term on the Euro mainly because it's the purest way to play USD strength in the currency markets; however, with a big GBP negative out of this report, I recommend looking for a swing trade or position trade short on GBP/USD on any decent rally into resistance a rally to or near 1.6900 would be a great spot to get in short, but 1.6830 or so might be all we can get depending on how the USD performs today (Friday). In news Friday:

    0700 CAD Employment Change (-20K expected) - Canadian numbers are not nearly as nice and neat to trade than they used to be in the past. We should be able to expect a nice short term move on a surprise, but I wouldn't hold out on it for terribly long.
    If it comes out at 0K or higher (positive) USD/CAD should drop 40 pips.
    If it comes out at -40K or lower, USD/CAD should rise 40 pips.

    0830 US Non Farm Payrolls (-325K expected) - We've seen decent surprises 2 months in a row... one positive and one negative. In each case the EUR/USD and USD/JPY spiked in the same direction right away, but the EUR/USD wound up reversing while the USD/JPY kept chugging along. If we get a surprise and a big spike on the EUR/USD that might be running out of steam, look to play the reversal. If you want to hold on to something and let it extend, trade the USD/JPY. If you want the biggest spike trade possible trade the EUR/JPY. Also, be careful to look out for revisions to prior numbers and consider them just as significant as this month's surprise.
    If it comes out at -250K or higher, USD/JPY should rally 50+ pips.
    If it comse out at -400K or lower, USD/JPY should sell off 50+ pips.

    TRADE LIVE WITH SIR PIPS FOR $39.00 FOR 2 WEEKS
    Sir Pipsalot has a live trading room, in which he trades these news reports. There, he shares his trades in real time, including exact entries and exits, and detailed explanation for every entry and exit. The service costs $299 per month, but we have a 14-days $39.00 trial. Go to Forex Diamonds and take advantage of this offer. This offer is for NEW customers only.

    To our success,
    Sir Pipsalot
     
  2. Sir Pipsalot

    Sir Pipsalot Former FPA Special Consultant

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    I think you guys owe me dinner after that picture perfect preview. We actually entered a GBP/USD position trade short in the Diamonds room by the way. GU also rallied exactly to 1.6830ish after NFP to sell off 150 pips in 18 minutes. Also, everything previewed in the NFP stuff happened... EU and GU spiked along with USD/JPY but reversed hard. USD/JPY kept chugging for an extra 100 pips after the initial spike... everything worked this morning.
     
  3. matjazz

    matjazz Recruit

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    Not everthing... All the way requtes and AVAfx caceled my trades... Reason - Arbitrage. SUX!!! Anyhowe your prediction was fine just why you enter 100 triger for buy in SNW?
     
  4. Sir Pipsalot

    Sir Pipsalot Former FPA Special Consultant

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    Well, at the last minute overnight, a bunch of analysts started raising their expectations much higher, and word on the street was that a positive surprise was already priced in... so instead of keeping the tighter 75 trigger, I bumped it to 100 to play it safe. If there had been an unemployment rate conflict or downward revision to last month's numbers, 75K may not have been enough... however, everything came out good, so 75K was plenty.

    Also, on a side note... if you're trading with a broker that frequently requotes you and/or is cancelling your trades, you definitely need to switch brokers.
     
  5. matjazz

    matjazz Recruit

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    Do you suggest some good broker for news trading? You can send me PM or mail as your loayal reader and user of SNW if you wan't share it with evereyone here altought :) We are testing many brokers all the time and as you know they are good and they are bad altought there is alot of them on the market...
     
  6. Sir Pipsalot

    Sir Pipsalot Former FPA Special Consultant

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    Honestly, I'm not using SNW all that much right now. The broker that worked well for me has stopped working, and my focus has been much more on the longer term outlook and trades, and grabbing afterspike trades that everyone in the Diamonds room can follow. I haven't gone back out there to find another good broker for spike trading since mine stopped working a month or two ago.
     

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