Forex Trading Signal 10-14-2009

Sir Pipsalot

Former FPA Special Consultant
Messages
511
Hey folks,

Well, our USD weakening bias is still running strong and the Euro and AUD/USD are continuing their ascent. Right now things continue to look good, but as always and I'm looking for 1.5 on the Euro, 1100 on the S&P and 9300 on the AUD, but a technical break of support could cloud up the picture, so if 1.4760 on the Euro, 0.9030 on the AUD or 1059 on the S&P are breached in the next few days, it may be time to move back to neutral or consider switching to a short bias based on how things look at the time. As long as we continue to hold up though, any pullbacks will continue to be buying opportunities as they have been over the last week or so.

In news Tuesday we had UK CPI come out low and we got the 35-45 pip downside we were looking for. Also, there was a development out of NZ where they are now ending their quantitative easing and special programs which may help NZD play a little catch up to the AUD over the next few days, so any dips on the NZD may be well supported and good buys. In news Wednesday:

0830 US Retail Sales Ex Autos (0.2% expected) - US numbers are tough to trade now with the USD correllation to risk appetitie in an odd state of flux. My best guess is that USD/JPY will be the best way to trade the number, but I do not have as much confidence in that as usual.
If it comes out at 0.7% or higher, USD/JPY should rally 30-40 pips.
If it comes out at -0.3% or lower, USD/JPY should fall 30-40 pips.

1400 US FOMC Meeting Minutes - Obviously this is an important release because it will give insight into the recent FOMC meeting and give some indications of when and how they are looking to unwind their special programs. Expect some volatility around this time, but usually it dies down within 20 minutes or so.

1745 NZ CPI q/q - This release has been a big stinker overall, but a decent move on NZ Retail Sales on Monday (also a stinker usually) makes this at least worth watching. If it was tradable, I'd say a 0.2% surprise compared to the 0.8% expected on the quarterly number would be worth a shot, but at this time of day I'm not sure we'll get enough of a move to make it worthwhile, so I'm skipping it.
 
Last edited:

Seamantrust

Recruit
Messages
7
Thank you Sir Pipsalot for your early job, I wondered your time is Frankfurt time or London time so that I have some basic understanding for my beginning in trade time and your comments on the start of a few important minutes sometimes on the fx market.
 

Swade

Recruit
Messages
1
Good Info Is Much Appreciated

:cool:
Thanks for the daily summary of the markets. I have found you to be quite accurate and just wanted to let you know that your daily heads up share is very much appreciated. :)

Live Long and Prosper my friend!
 

Lorenco222

Recruit
Messages
2
I am looking the signals provided by sir Pipsalot,but i cant understand something since 8-9 month.How to trade the news - it happens so fast - when i see whats the actual number ,the currency move is already done,so i cant trade it.What do you think?How to trade it correctly...
 

wisefxtrader

Private
Messages
14
Hi !

I wonder what timeframe chart you usually use and make your determinations ? Is it 60 minutes chart ? :D

Thanks!

Hey folks,

Well, our USD weakening bias is still running strong and the Euro and AUD/USD are continuing their ascent. Right now things continue to look good, but as always and I'm looking for 1.5 on the Euro, 1100 on the S&P and 9300 on the AUD, but a technical break of support could cloud up the picture, so if 1.4760 on the Euro, 0.9030 on the AUD or 1059 on the S&P are breached in the next few days, it may be time to move back to neutral or consider switching to a short bias based on how things look at the time. As long as we continue to hold up though, any pullbacks will continue to be buying opportunities as they have been over the last week or so.

In news Tuesday we had UK CPI come out low and we got the 35-45 pip downside we were looking for. Also, there was a development out of NZ where they are now ending their quantitative easing and special programs which may help NZD play a little catch up to the AUD over the next few days, so any dips on the NZD may be well supported and good buys. In news Wednesday:

0830 US Retail Sales Ex Autos (0.2% expected) - US numbers are tough to trade now with the USD correllation to risk appetitie in an odd state of flux. My best guess is that USD/JPY will be the best way to trade the number, but I do not have as much confidence in that as usual.
If it comes out at 0.7% or higher, USD/JPY should rally 30-40 pips.
If it comes out at -0.3% or lower, USD/JPY should fall 30-40 pips.

1400 US FOMC Meeting Minutes - Obviously this is an important release because it will give insight into the recent FOMC meeting and give some indications of when and how they are looking to unwind their special programs. Expect some volatility around this time, but usually it dies down within 20 minutes or so.

1745 NZ CPI q/q - This release has been a big stinker overall, but a decent move on NZ Retail Sales on Monday (also a stinker usually) makes this at least worth watching. If it was tradable, I'd say a 0.2% surprise compared to the 0.8% expected on the quarterly number would be worth a shot, but at this time of day I'm not sure we'll get enough of a move to make it worthwhile, so I'm skipping it.
 
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